Tuesday, April 26, 2016

The Way, Way Too Early Electoral College Map

I'm about to wade deeply into the waters of self-indulgence and possibly self-delusion. There are very limited polls at the state level, matching up Hillary Clinton and Donald Drumpf, and it's premature to call Donald the presumptive nominee, but...

Nonetheless, here's my way, way too early electoral college map:



Clinton, with 340 electoral college votes, easily surpasses the 270 needed to win the election (as indicated in blue). This is my middle of the road view, BTW.

I think it's possible that a Clinton-Drumpf matchup could produce some crazy results, where several red states will flip blue (shaded in tan).

The swing states of Florida, Colorado, and Nevada have huge Latino populations and appear heavily motivated to vote against Drumpf, which is why I have them in Clinton's corner.

Virginia, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are sometimes swing states, but because Clinton leans moderate, I think she easily picks up these states. Plus, she actually does have a strong advantage with women voters, particularly when matched up against Drumpf.

It is utterly ridiculous to make this early prediction since the candidates haven't been formally decided, and 6 months ahead of the election is completely detached from anything proper and real. But here it is, and won't your mind be blown away if it is even remotely accurate?

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