5 Thoughts for November 3, 2016

1. 2020: Prior to the 2020 election we will hit the decadal census which will result in the reapportionment of the US House and electoral college votes. You can pretty much draw a map from the midwest and northeast towards the west and south, to highlight the direction of the reapportioned seats / votes. The projected big winners: Texas, California, Oregon, Florida, Colorado, Arizona, Virginia and North Carolina. Notice something? Two are solidly blue (California, Oregon), another two are leaning blue (Colorado, Virginia), two are perennial battleground states (Florida and North Carolina), one has turned from solidly red to a battleground (Arizona), and one is significantly less red than before (Texas). In each of these states, Democrats have been steadily gaining ground.
2. Chromebooks: The next generation of Chromebooks are officially here. This next generation incorporates 180-degree hinges while others are detachable, have full-HD screens (or better) at 12" or larger, and because they're touch-enabled, will eventually support the use of Android apps via the Google Play Store. THIS is the generation of devices to get, and the next computing device on my list. As much as I enjoy the Galaxy Pro 12.2, I think I'll get a lot more out of this next generation of Chromebooks that come packed with keyboards.Between now and December, there will be multiple manufacturers releasing similar, next-gen Chromebooks. I'm leaning on the soon-to-be-released Samsung Chromebook Pro with its pen.
3. Polls and GOTV: A good read on the problems with polls this year. It's a reminder, actually, that turnout is very important, with get-out-the-vote operations being extremely critical. In some studies, the observed effects of different GOTV methods range from .5pp to 4pp increases in voter turnout. This is why Hillary's money and operational advantages could have an enormous effect on Tuesday's outcome. In part, we're already seeing this effect in Florida where Democrats have an advantage in early voting. Democrats also hold a slight advantage (0.3pp) in total requests for mail-in ballots -- which is the opposite of 2012 when Republicans had a massive 19pp lead in mail-in ballot requests. If that last bit of data doesn't blow your mind, Tuesday night will.
4. Climate Change: Have you seen this Department of Energy map of renewable energy production? I realize that many people do not accept biomass as a good renewable energy source because of its implied carbon production cycle, yet, there are 6 states (and DC) that have reached 100% renewable production and Oregon is 7th at 99.8% (mostly from hydro, of course). It's no surprise that Wyoming, West Virginia, and Alaska are at the bottom of that list.
5. Cord Cutting: I hardly watch live TV these days. The only live TV I watch is football. I watch all of my TV shows on-demand via the networks' websites and, of course, Netflix. Cord-cutting is real and it's making a huge dent in how and what people do with their free time, that is, except for a few of my friends who somehow sit their asses in front of a TV to watch mindless stuff like the news. The effect of cord-cutting is real, and if you pay close attention, you'll notice that the big companies are catching on. That's a key reason why ESPN is available on Sling. It's also an important reason why the PAC-12 network had to sign on with Sling -- not enough people give a damn to pay for cable TV.