Fallout from revelations on Monica Wehby?

What a weird twist in Monica Wehby's campaign.  Today ballots are due, but it doesn't really matter at this point, after the last four days; even if she wins, she's not going to have a chance to win come November.  Let's recap.

The relationship 

Previously, Oregonians had learned that Monica Wehby was involved with Andrew Miller, who'd been behind a slate of separate political action committee advertisements backing Wehby.  Those ads showed numerous photos of private family moments.  These all brought about suspicions (followed by formal complaints) of campaign violations banning coordination between PACs and candidates.

Last Friday, Oregonians were informed that Wehby's relationship with Andrew Miller had actually gone sour 13 months ago, leading to Miller calling 911 to complain that she'd been stalking him and harassing his employees.  What triggered the formal complaint?  Miller had come home to find Wehby in his home.  That's almost psycho scary, but leans towards salacious gossip.

Run and hide

That day that we learned about this incident, Wehby refused to answer any questions about it at a non-televised debate at the City Club of Portland.  Following the debate, she left abruptly and disappeared from all public appearances aside from an issued statement on the matter.

Suddenly this issue had traction.  If you have nothing to hide, you don't hide, especially on the weekend before ballots are due.  On the other hand, she was exhibiting the same tactic that led her to avoid any televised debate, instead relying on ads to curate her image.

Yes, it got worse

Over the weekend though, we discovered that in 2007, as she was going through a divorce, Wehby and her soon-to-be ex-husband got into a tussle a few weeks before their divorce would be finalized.  In separate reports, Wehby complained that her husband had yelled and swore at her, and he complained that she had thrown objects at him, pulled his hair and slapped him.

Once officers had explained what an arrest and restraining order would involve, both sides declined to make official complaints, even though a report was required -- hence why we have this report available.

But there's more

In 2009, Wehby and her ex-husband got into another tussle, when she was looking to say goodbye to their children prior to her going on a trip.  According to the formal police report, she was supposed to get permission to see their children.  Instead, she had apparently let herself into her ex-husband's home several times previously without permission, to visit with their children.  On this particular night, she refused to go away until she got to say goodbye to their children.

Consequences

While Senator Jeff Merkley refused to comment on the issue aside from calling it a private matter for Monica Wehby, it's gone from lurid gossip to character issues, now that it has been established that Wehby's had a series of lapses in judgement.  We're not talking decades ago but incidents as recently as one year ago.  When you run for political office, all of your transgressions are played out, eventually.  You can either run and hide from them, or tackle them head on.  Wehby chose to run and hide until her team could come up with a sufficient statement to issue.

Does this mean she'll lose today?  Hard to say, given that ballots had been coming in for the last several weeks, though most ballots tend to come in during the last weekend of the election.

But let's say that she does win today, even without Merkley commenting on her character flaws, she still has to face the public and the media.  When she calls it a personal issue, she's telling us that her personal flaws don't have relevance in politics, which is at odds with the reality of politics.

And she's still a one-trick pony candidate, running against the ACA and Cover Oregon.  Lately she's been running ads attacking Merkley, saying that politicians "like him" have created the $17T debt.  That's weak sauce.  Were she to get elected into Congress, she'd own the $17T debt, too, as any budget vote in favor of anything other than a balanced budget would add to that total.  The first vote she takes on timber payments would single her out either as hypocritical or anti-Oregon; she can't not vote on it either, as a non-vote signals a lack of support for the issue.  She talks balanced budget, but she's never had to vote on the cuts required to make a balanced budget.

I think she loses in a landslide in November.  People seem to forget that Oregon voted in Merkley to replace another GOP moderate in Gordon Smith -- a guy that was about as inoffensive as apple pie.  With these character flaws and her one-trick pony, she's not going to survive November's general election.