Friday, July 26, 2013

Wall Street wants Yellen as next top Fed.

Via CNBC, a small poll of 40 Wall Street insiders, feel that President Obama will (70%) and should (50%) pick Janet Yellen to be the next Fed Chairperson.  Makes sense, really, because she's the current Vice Chair.

Here's where it gets interesting.  Yellen is a lot like Ben Bernanke, and was instrumental in the design of the QE program.  That makes her a dove, whereas Larry Summers has recently come out downplaying QE's effects, making him more hawkish than Yellen.

So look at the order of preference by those Wall Street insiders:

Janet Yellen50.0%
Ben Bernanke12.5%
John Taylor12.5%
Glenn Hubbard7.5%
Roger Ferguson5.0%
Larry Summers2.5%
Martin Feldstein2.5%
Paul Volcker2.5%
Steve Liesman2.5%
Don't know/unsure2.5%

There are a couple of very hawkish economists (Taylor and Hubbard) and a hawkish dove (Summers) behind Yellen and Ben Bernanke.  The first observation is that Wall Street would prefer a more hawkish stance, but that it prefers stability over all else...even if it means forcing Ben Bernanke to stay on, against his will.

Another observation is that Wall Street just really doesn't like Larry Summers, even if he's in the top-2 list of candidates and Obama's likely favorite.

After having read about and watched Frontline's coverage of Summers (and the Rubin gang) dismissive of the warnings against dismantling Glass-Steagall, I can't say that I disagree with the anti-Summers.  When you're on the wrong side of an argument that results in the near-collapse of the economy, you shouldn't get a second chance to screw up: Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.

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