Friday, July 12, 2013

Stop the Apple corporate profit subsidies!

In order for carriers to sell iPhones, they have to sign purchase agreements that place onto them guaranteed minimum annual purchases over multiple years.  If a carrier cannot sell enough units, they are thus stuck with excess inventory, and resort to offering these iPhones for free.  Those excessive subsidies mean that the rest of us -- people who buy Androids, Blackberries, Windows Phones and regular dumb phones -- are stuck with higher prices by way of weaker subsidies and higher prices for minutes / texts / data.

Now, news comes from Moffett Research, suggesting that Verizon may be way in over their heads on their 2013 contract with Apple, possibly losing $12B ~ $14B this year, if Apple does not have a blockbuster, new iPhone.  Recent Kantar data might be a little misleading, but if you track their monthly reports, it's clear that, while the iPhone 5 dramatically increased Apple's market share in the US in the first month of its release, since then it's been an equally dramatic downhill slide, with Android regaining market share.


It is very plausible that, if Apple executes poorly, Verizon will be deep in the hole (and perhaps many others).  Obviously Verizon cannot pass all of that loss onto non-iPhone subscribers, else they will flee to other carriers, but it demonstrates why I've been against these sorts of contracts, especially on my carrier (T-Mobile).

As I previously mentioned, iOS 7 is not impressive at all, considering most of the new features are basically copied ideas from Android, going back at least since Ice Cream Sandwich, well over a year ago.  And to add insult to injury, by the time iOS 7 comes out, the next iteration of Android (4.3) will already be out and we will have had our Moto X with Google's $500M ad campaign to sell it.  So, the pressure is on.

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