BLS June employment numbers: Aha, this is why QE might end soon!

A very solid jobs report.  According to the BLS, job growth was fairly strong in June, even though the unemployment rate remained at 7.6% (due to more people entering the labor force, up 177K in June).  But what makes this report amazing are the updated revisions.

BLS employment estimate

Month	1st Est	2nd Est	Final Est
April 2013	165	149	199
May 2013	175	195
June 2013	195

And, I don't think it requires repeating but cuts in federal employment continues to drag total employment figures (as well as GDP) -- 5,000 fewer federal jobs in June -- as the total federal workforce accounts for less than 2.3% of total non-farm payrolls.

Federal jobs and percentage of fed jobs to total non-farm

Still, job growth has been fairly consistent, at a level that won't overheat the economy, but at the same time, prolongs the pain for many millions of Americans.

It's understandable why the Feds may be taking QE off the table later this year, if you look at the trajectory we're currently under, in terms of job growth.

If we continue to have this level of growth, by Winter of this year, in less than four years we will have matched trough-to-peak jobs created in the final five years of President George W Bush.  In other words, we will have created jobs at a faster rate than under President Bush.  Now, the only problem is that we lost million of jobs, so we won't surpass total employment under Bush, until 2014, and it'll still represent a higher unemployment rate, by virtue of more people entering the workforce and the way the unemployment rate is calculated.

Still, it's encouraging that the economy is growing faster than under George Bush, don't you think?

By the way, a reminder: When the economy's outlook is solid, bond yields will increase; when more people are working, more taxes are being paid, which will lower the deficit quickly.