Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Global recession warning?

Six events in recent days seem to point to a spreading doom and gloom:

  1. 3rd quarter GDP was revised downward to 2.0%.
  2. Germany had to pull back half of its planned bond auction because of a lack of interest.
  3. As a result of the disinterest in German bonds, the German 10 year yield (2.15%) is now higher than the US' 10 year yield (1.91%), even though US debt as percentage of GDP is much higher than Germany's.
  4. Greece 10 year bond rate is above 29%.
  5. The Feds are having 31 of the biggest US banks go through a stress test, with the consideration of a prolonged recession with 13% unemployment rate, an 8% drop in GDP and a 52% drop in the stock market between Q3 2011 and Q4 2012.
  6. The Dow Industrial Index has pulled back 7.6% in less than a month.
But good news: US politicians are still planning to cut total US GDP by slashing federal spending, with or without a debt panel.

Oh wait.

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