Thursday, September 23, 2010

China's got the free trade thing backwards.

China's upset that Japan has detained a ship's captain after he reportedly rammed Japanese coast guard boats in an area of islands that are disputed between China and Japan.

China has retaliated by canceling a meeting over the possible joint-exploration for natural gas of another disputed region, among other things.  And now, China has blocked the export of goods to Japan, particularly rare earth materials.

Now, that just seems short-sighted.  Cutting off supplies and natural resources will only encourage the US to export more to Japan.  But more than that, it raises prices outside of China while concurrently lowers prices inside of China and discourages mining operations in China (as supply exceeds demand).  It also ends up encouraging other nations to go searching for rare earth resources outside of China, which is something China would probably NOT want to happen.  That is to say, China wouldn't like it much if someone did find huge reserves of rare earth materials - say in Canada or the US - and find that its own mines are now in competition.  I say, don't count US and Canada out, because North America is astoundingly rich in natural resources, from natural gas, to shale oil, tungsten, copper, uranium, nickel, silver and gold among others.  Combined with Australia, they could crowd out China in a trade war.

And as it is, China's actions could likely provoke Americans to push for a trade war, with their currency manipulationstrict import rules and requiring car manufacturers to share their EV secrets with China, in order to import vehicles.

I think China's grown an ego bigger than its britches.

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