Monday, June 7, 2010

I just lost all confidence in the economic recovery.

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron was quoted as saying, "Nothing illustrates better the total irresponsibility of the last government’s approach than the fact that they kept ratcheting up unaffordable government spending even when the economy was shrinking." And repeated the oft used fallacious causality that has become fashionable of late, "Greece stands as a warning of what happens to countries that lose their credibility, or whose governments pretend that difficult decisions can be avoided."

What a flipping idiot.

Do you know WHY Greece (and some other countries in the Euro Zone) are in trouble? It's because of LONG-TERM, huge deficits that they've been carrying.

This first chart shows Greece's Debt to GDP ratio, in comparison to the Euro Zone average.
This second chart shows the US' Debt to GDP ratio. The astute observer will notice that the blue-colored regions represent Democratic Presidents and red-colored regions represent Republican Presidents.  I've said it before, but the last three Republican presidents were all about spending, and did nothing to cut the debt.

This third chart represents Britain's Debt to GDP ratio.














Now, if you take a look at the three graphs, you will notice one striking difference between Greece and the US and Britain: Greece has been running huge debts relative to their GDP for a very long time.
So when PM Cameron tries to tie Greece's current situation with where either the US's or Britain's economy stands, you have to have some serious reservations of the sanity of these leaders. They are talking about enacting austerity measures (cutting spending) even before the global economy has had a chance to recover. What we just went through was once or twice in a lifetime global economic panic. Narrow-minded people like to apply short-term history and think that this recovery is already over, and that they can apply Adam Smith's minimalist government dogma to any situation, including this one. That's a huge mistake to go back to thinking within the box.

Hence, I just lost all confidence in the economic recovery.

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