Did the stimulus bill work?

Everywhere, people are using unemployment as a sign that the stimulus bill didn't work. Certainly, people who are unemployed are looking at the national unemployment numbers as it pertains to them, now that Congress has seemingly failed to enact unemployment insurance extensions. But unemployment is a lagging indicator, and thus wouldn't reflect what's actually happening to the broader economy.

To illustrate this, I created this chart to show what happened to the GDP (shown as a percent change from the previous quarter) and changes in weekly work hours from private payrolls. I know it's popular to say that the stimulus had no (or limited) effect, but this is simply not true. Overall, those who have jobs have also seen gains in the number of hours (productivity), instead of seeing large cuts that preceded the stimulus bill. Overall, the GDP has moved positively.

So, despite what others might have complained about the stimulus, it has in fact had a very positive impact on the broader US economy. So the question many people are asking is, "Why don't I have a job, if the stimulus is working?"

Honestly, two reasons, I believe. Fear and depth of number of people under-employed. Those who are underemployed are in fact absorbing work through an increase in income and work hours. Fear is preventing companies from hiring new people until they see signs that the economy has truly recovered. Banks likewise are holding credit back.

And prosperity remains under a dark cloud, so long as austerity talk remains front and center, and those mortgage resets are not met by clear rules to offset their impact.

Think about this: If we refuse to borrow now under current rates, to continue the stimulus push, what are we going to do in 2011 or 2012, when rates have shot up, costing the US double to borrow money? Cut more? That's the death spiral that I fear, if the economy does not have a solid recovery in short time.

added 11:37pm:I think it's worth noting, that, despite my general lack of respect for George Bush, he deserves a lot of credit of intervening where no other Republican would have, and as the chart shows, provided confidence in the market that no other big banks would fail spectacularly like Lehman Brothers. Even as Obama pins the spending of the bank bailouts on Bush, even he knows that it was necessary.