More on Treasury yields.

Made this chart of random dates from the past 15 years, showing yield rates (1 month to 30 years).  There are explanations as to what different curves mean with regards to the current mood of the economy, relative to future expectation.  Usually a flat (horizontal) line, refers to uncertainty in the markets about the future.  A normal curve is one where short term bonds are very low in yield, and the longest term bonds have the highest yield rates.

What is worth noting, is that the yield curve based on today's rates, is generally lower than it has been for much of the past 15 years.


Again, if you're going to borrow money to spend on deficit spending, now's the time to do it. Who knows what'll happen in the future, but contrary to what people are talking about when they bring up austerity measures, market confidence seems quite strong in the US' ability to pay back its debts, don't you think?

Been working on graphics lately.

Took a break from furniture-related stuff - costs too much for now, to work on. Decided to stuff my Cafe Press store with graphic designs first, and get that up and running. I've got 6 specific new graphic designs, but I plan to add another 6 before I convert my store from a free store to a paid, pro store.

Here's one I finished this afternoon.

More on Boehner.

Everyone's getting a good laugh at House Minority Leader Jim Boehner, when critiquing the financial regulation bill, said it was, "like killing an ant with a nuclear weapon."

Gee Boehner, you think an ant is the proper metaphor for the financial mess that occurred, really?

Well, the DNC didn't waste any time. They've already put out an ad:



This on the heels of Republican Joe Barton apologizing to BP for the government's request for the creation of a clean up fund?

Jim Boehner...nuts?

Minority Republican Leader Rep. Jim Boehner proposed "increasing the Social Security retirement age to 70" in order to pay for the war in Afghanistan. He then insisted that President Obama "OVER-REACTED to the BP oil spill."

Hey, I have a BETTER idea. Let's cut the salaries of Republicans working all across America to pay for the war! They supported and started the war in Iraq which took all focus off of Afghanistan; why aren't they being held personally responsible for the lagging war in Afghanistan?

And since the Republicans support oil drilling in sensitive environments, let's have Republicans pay TRIPLE for gasoline at the pump to pay for cleanup costs!

MAKE REPUBLICANS BACK UP THEIR CLAIMS OF PERSONAL RESPONSIBILITY! TAX THEM FOR STARTING TWO WARS AND TRIPLE CHARGE THEM AT THE PUMP TO PAY FOR OIL SPILLS!

Sounds like the NYT is getting it.

Yet another article talks about the parallels to the subsequent response to the 1929 crash and Great Depression, which led Roosevelt to prematurely start reigning in debt, only to plunge the economy back down again.  What is being ignored by this article however, is that big asset write down that is ramping up...that second wave of mortgage resets.  They didn't have that in the 1930's.

But I love this excerpt, which I think properly describes what's going on:

Our economy remains in rough shape, by any measure. So it’s easy to confuse its condition (bad) with its direction (better) and to lose sight of how much worse it could be. The unyielding criticism from those who opposed stimulus from the get-go — laissez-faire economists, Congressional Republicans, German leaders — plays a role, too. They’re able to shout louder than the data.

It's just an awful shame that people are being fooled by the shouting people.

Did the stimulus bill work?

Everywhere, people are using unemployment as a sign that the stimulus bill didn't work. Certainly, people who are unemployed are looking at the national unemployment numbers as it pertains to them, now that Congress has seemingly failed to enact unemployment insurance extensions. But unemployment is a lagging indicator, and thus wouldn't reflect what's actually happening to the broader economy.

To illustrate this, I created this chart to show what happened to the GDP (shown as a percent change from the previous quarter) and changes in weekly work hours from private payrolls. I know it's popular to say that the stimulus had no (or limited) effect, but this is simply not true. Overall, those who have jobs have also seen gains in the number of hours (productivity), instead of seeing large cuts that preceded the stimulus bill. Overall, the GDP has moved positively.

So, despite what others might have complained about the stimulus, it has in fact had a very positive impact on the broader US economy. So the question many people are asking is, "Why don't I have a job, if the stimulus is working?"

Honestly, two reasons, I believe. Fear and depth of number of people under-employed. Those who are underemployed are in fact absorbing work through an increase in income and work hours. Fear is preventing companies from hiring new people until they see signs that the economy has truly recovered. Banks likewise are holding credit back.

And prosperity remains under a dark cloud, so long as austerity talk remains front and center, and those mortgage resets are not met by clear rules to offset their impact.

Think about this: If we refuse to borrow now under current rates, to continue the stimulus push, what are we going to do in 2011 or 2012, when rates have shot up, costing the US double to borrow money? Cut more? That's the death spiral that I fear, if the economy does not have a solid recovery in short time.

added 11:37pm:I think it's worth noting, that, despite my general lack of respect for George Bush, he deserves a lot of credit of intervening where no other Republican would have, and as the chart shows, provided confidence in the market that no other big banks would fail spectacularly like Lehman Brothers. Even as Obama pins the spending of the bank bailouts on Bush, even he knows that it was necessary.

Of 10 year bond rates.

I think it's worth noting, China's 10 year bond rate is 3.40%, while the US' rate is 3.11%, Finland's is 2.89%, and Ireland is 5.52%.

Why include these four countries? Because China holds a large bulk of our bonds and did not have a negative GDP during the global recession, so it's interesting to note that investors trust the US over China.

Ireland, as I have previously mentioned, passed austerity measures 2 years ago in rapid response to their growing deficit spending as a percentage of GDP (which was also plunging). Meanwhile, Finland has been loathe to enact deficit spending measures, even while the European Union has told it that it must control debt and spending. If there was a nation under greater financial duress than the US, it most certainly is Finland. Yet by this measure of confidence, Finland's bond rate is lower than China, the US and Ireland.

Now how remarkable is that? No threat of default for Finland and the US, even while calls to halt deficit spending in a time of great need, has become the rallying cry.

rates can be found here

A warning of what happens in austere economic moves.

NYT did a piece on Ireland, and the grim future is faces despite (or as I see it, in spite of) their austerity measures two years ago.

Let that be a forewarning of things to come in the US and around the world, as Republicans and conservatives in general, proud to shout hollow slogans of slashing spending, force budgets to cut off support for the early recovery.

JP Morgan Chase...a case of demented people.

Absolutely crazy, but a BANK (not security professionals) is telling everyone that IE6 is MORE secure than either Chrome or Opera browsers, and as a result, will no longer support either Opera or Chrome! Instead, they want people to use either Safari, IE or Firefox, while they'll continue to support IE6. If it comes to banking matters, I'll listen to bankers. When it comes to security, why would I listen to bankers?

Allow me to illustrate how ridiculously insane those folks at JP Morgan Chase really are.

According to 2010 Symantic's Global Internet Security Threat Report, in 2009, the browser with the most vulnerabilities was Firefox (169) followed by Safari (94), Internet Explorer (45), Chrome (41) and Opera (25).

They've just directed their banking customers to use the 3 most vulnerable platforms!

Not to mention, Microsoft issued a statement earlier this year, following the discovery of a major vulnerability in IE6 running on Windows XP, "We recommend users of IE6 on Windows XP upgrade to a new version of Internet Explorer."

You know who's dropping IE6 support? Most everyone else, that's who. Google's eliminating support for IE6 (and getting rid of it in their corporate offices) as a result of the vulnerability within it, that allowed hackers in China unfettered access to Google's internal servers.

You have to wonder, is it safe to do your banking at JP Morgan Chase???

Some long term economic charts.

Chart 1 shows how top CEO pay has greatly outpaced the average US wage income.

Chart 2 shows periods of divergence between real income and the consumer price index.

Chart 3 shows long term trends of top decile income, relative to total US wealth. The top 1% has noticeably increased dramatically beginning from Ronald Reagan's first year in office.

Chart 4 shows the top US marginal tax rate along side the top decile share of US wealth and the US federal gross debt (includes social security debt) as a percentage of US GDP between 1970 and 2005 (logarithmic scale). Measured broadly, cutting the top tax rate has increased the federal debt to GDP ratio while positively adding to the share of the top decile income earners' share of total US wealth.

I don't know. When I look at the data, what I see is tax cuts adding to the wealth of top US earners, but that money is conspicuously missing from the supply-side economics argument that the backside to this is supposed to be increased tax receipts (from purported expanded spending and job creation.)

I just don't see it. Well, actually, I do see something worth noting. Those tax cuts that are supposed to be creating jobs, appears in fact, to have absolutely no effect on the average US wage.

A step closer to double-dip?

ABC World News headed their Sunday evening national news with the leading story of how President Obama was unable to win the argument at the G20 meeting in Toronto, leaving many economists predicting a double-dip.

I think it'll double dip because the rhetoric is so shrill, that people are more concerned about debts than the extremely serious case of the second wave of mortgage resets about to hit.

What do you think? Is this graph below rosy or bleak? I say extremely bleak.

Here's the problem: US banks might meet current adequate capital leverage limits (we can't even begin to discuss the dangers facing European banks here), but as these mortgages reset, I'm betting most people will end up walking away from their homes, because they will most certainly ALL be under water.  At that point, they will have to mark down the value of the assets they're holding if they sell (through foreclosure sales).  We will see a repeat of 2008.

This time however, voter mood will prevent Democrats from saving the banks, or if they try to save the banks the second time around, they will be voted out of office.  Caught between a rock and a hard place, Democrats will sit on the sidelines.  This will set off a cascade of bank failures - again because they own each other's debt - and as their stock prices fall and shareholder equity plummets.  The FDIC and Treasury, armed with new weapons, will try to unload banks in a timely fashion, but it won't work, because NO ONE will want to buy the toxic assets as they look at that chart of resets.

I hope this doesn't happen, but I read the news every day and I don't see many people talking about this second wave coming, but instead about national debt.  Well, watch what happens when this second wave hits at its peak.

Now, I know there are LOTS of people who honestly believe the worst is behind us.  To those people, I strongly urge them to buy retail stocks to back up their bravado.  Nothing says you believe in what you say, than actually placing a stock market bet on it.

Has Arizona's Governor gone looney tunes?

Today, AZ Gov. Jan Brewer said:

"I believe today, under the circumstances that we're facing, that the majority of the illegal trespassers that are coming into the state of Arizona are under the direction and control of organized drug cartels and they are bringing drugs in."

In a follow up, her office tried to clarify her position with a press release. In it, she says:

"The majority of human smuggling in our state is under the direction
of the drug cartels, which are by definition smuggling drugs."

Hmm.

This is quite sketchy logic. According to Brewer, because drug cartels control most of the human border-crossing traffic, and because by definition drug cartels deal with drugs, therefore the individuals who are trying to come into the US are mostly drug smugglers. She even points to this LA Times article from March 23, 2009, that shows that drug cartels have taken control of much of the human border-crossing traffic.

But wait, the article she uses, does NOT back her claim up that these cartels are using most of their humans trying to cross into the US, to smuggle drugs!

In that article, it directly states:

"Sometimes they loaded up their human cargo with backpacks full of marijuana."


"The cartels often further exploit the illegal immigrants by forcing them into economic bondage or prostitution, U.S. officials say. In recent years, illegal immigrants have been forced to pay even more exorbitant fees for being smuggled into the U.S. by the cartel's well-coordinated networks of transportation, communications, logistics and financial operatives, according to officials."


"In Arizona, the cartels grossed an estimated $2 billion last year on smuggling humans."

In fact, the article is specifically about how the drug cartels are using humans as a means of gaining revenue not primarily from acting as drug mules, but from being treated as property and slaves, sold and stolen from each other drug cartel, raped, and forced to pay ever higher fees to cross into the US.

Ironic then, for Brewer to quote an article that actually refutes her allegation that a majority of humans crossing into the US from Mexico, are smuggling drugs.

Do you need further proof that Brewer's gone looney tunes?

Did I mention that I have a Cafe Press store?

I've been working on the down low for the past handful of years as I try to build up my skillz in graphics and color, but I've been using my Cafe Press account to produce my personal Christmas cards and gifts, while sorta letting things just sit there in case anyone actually found it and thought of paying cash to buy one of my designs. :D

Anyway, I mention this, as I think I might be coming out of stealth mode soon (targeting before the end of Summer) and promote my Cafe Press store to a full-on pro store, and use my registered website to link between the various efforts of design, between my existing Ponoko and Cafe Express accounts, and hopefully in the near-future, an Etsy account for polymer-clay works.

If I'm going to keep my lifestyle, I'm going to have to earn it by selling stuff, which means I'm going to have to stop reading as much as I currently do. :sigh:

If only I didn't have to sleep, and if only I could have stayed 30 years old for 50 years, I know I would have done much more by the time I hit 40. :double sigh:

My current Cafe Press store HERE.

Photo of today.

Took it with my phone, and ended up capturing part of my shoes, but oh well. Maybe I'll try later with my DSLR. Image of a young magnolia street tree. I've always been partial to magnolias with their magnificently sculptural flowers.

The cutest pandas on the planet...red pandas.

Admit it...even the sneezing giant baby panda couldn't match the red panda carrying her baby.

via Wired

Efficacy of Anti-Virus products.

AV-Comparatives does testing of anti-virus software, and rates them according to their ability to catch different forms of malware, as well as how many false-positives (erroneous alerts) they have.  They have separated their testing into two main categories:

• On-Demand detection
  
• Proactive/Retrospective detection
  

In the Retrospective detection area, Microsoft's free MSE software tied for 3rd with Kaspersky, with Trustport, Panda and G-Data at the top of detection rates.  Symantic, McAfee and AVG were 7th, 8th and 9th, respectively.

In the On-Demand detection area, MSE was 14th (out of 20), with Avira, G-Data and Panda having the highest detection rates, respectively.  McAfee was 5th, Symantic was 7th, and AVG 15th.

Now, while it may seem that MSE did poorly in the On-Demand detection area, the difference separating McAfee and MSE was 2.6 percentage points, while in the Proactive/Retrospective detection area, the difference between the two is a mind-blowing 21 percentage points.

Bottom line, if you're going to go the free route, MSE is an excellent choice.  If you're going to pay for your AV, either Panda or G-Data are your best bets.  Actually, G-Data is the safest and cheaper of the two.

World Cup, from a regional perspective.

Group play is over and the second round is ready to start.  Looking at the second round, I can't help but notice that the quarterfinals are guaranteed to have 3 nations from Europe (no less and no more), while the Americas (North/South/Central) are guaranteed to have 2 nations in the quarterfinals, but could have as many as 5, and Asia is left between 2 at best and none at worst.

The semifinals could see all four teams from the Americas, or it could be three from Europe, but I think the likely split is two nations from Europe and Americas.  My guess: Brazil, Germany, Uruguay and Spain, although I hold out hope that it'll be: Brazil, Argentina, US, Paraguay.  After all, how exciting would it be, to have an all-Americas finals?

The internet is overwhelming, but I love it.

I love the internet for a very simple reason: It gives any person the ability to reach out and find information.  Yes data is nice, yes current events and the speed in which they are delivered is nice, but I'm referring to the writings and thinking of other people, which then allows you to expand your horizon much broader and faster than a library ever could.

And yet, all that information can be overwhelming.

My biggest question to myself has lately been: Do I have enough time (today, this week, this month, this year, this decade, my entire lifetime) to read what I want to read, and learn what I want to learn?

I am sure, that such intentions are pure folly.  Who can make a living from learning?  Oh how grand of a dream to be a trust fund kid, so that I could have spent my life learning and experimenting with that knowledge!

Which then leads to my follow-up question to myself: Do I unintentionally - and to the detriment of my vocation - purge my old knowledge to make room for new knowledge?

It is disturbing to ponder the consequences of losing old knowledge to new.  It could mean that, in fact we are blessed with a fixed ability to store knowledge - each individual with their unique capacity - and therefore one can never be more knowledgeable than what one started out with (which should be interpreted as the end of our brain development in our youth as opposed to our brain at birth).  Or it could be that if you don't use that particular stores of knowledge on a regular basis, it fades away until it is eventually completely replaced with new knowledge, in which case, one will always lose old knowledge by the mere fact of the impracticality of exercising old knowledge on a regular basis.

Which finally brings me to the reasoning behind this blog post: The Dunning-Kruger Effect, as witnessed through a Mr. McArthur Wheeler, aka the lemon juice bandit, which was brought up while reading Errol Morris' series of opinion pieces in the NYT titled, "The Anosognosic's Dilemma: Something's Wrong But You'll Never Know What It Is."

If you spend enough time reading what other people have to say in the comment sections of every other website, you come to understand that a lot of really dumb people think they're smart... hell, aren't we all smart?  But then again, maybe I'm one of those dumb people that smart people find annoying?  :O

Nah (I know what my IQ is.) my biggest worry is that I lose part of my brain, such that I become a true anosognosic.

Android apps and Google's back door.

So yesterday, CNET reported that a security research firm SMobile Systems had published a paper that made an assertion that 1/5th of all Android apps "allow a third-party application access to sensitive or private information".
Just within the hour, PC World is reporting that Google has remotely deleted two Android apps from users' phones and the Android Market, that were "free applications built by a security researcher for research purposes".

Coincidence?  I think not!

Now, while these two apps were reported to not be malicious, Google has just demonstrated that they indeed have a back door to remotely delete apps, were they malicious...at the expense of SMobile, methinks.
The question is, does this apply to jail-broken phones running CyanogenMod?

Unicorn: The NEW white meat?

This is quite amusing.  The National Pork Board sent a letter to ThinkGeek for this last April Fool's joke, Unicorn meat, that they tagged as "The new white meat".  Apparently the National Pork Board thought that ThinkGeek was diluting their trademark, "The other white meat".

ThinkGeek in response, placed this on their website:

We'd like to publicly apologize to the NPB for the confusion over unicorn and pork--and for their awkward extended pause on the phone after we had explained our unicorn meat doesn't actually exist.

I say, I would have loved to have been on the phone when that call was made to explain that unicorn meat doesn't actually exist.  I don't think I could have kept from busting out laughing.
Santa Claus is VERY upset with the National Pork Board; all you naughty boys and girls should be expecting a lump of coal in your stockings this December 25th.

via NYT

More faux intelligence.

Former bank chairman praises unbridled capitalism and seethes at government intervention in his book, The Rational Optimist, even if it was his own bank that was saved by government intervention.  Irony at 11.

What makes this story amusing, however, is that this banker-come-writer, assumed that he was smarter than other professionals in other fields, and thus branched out in his book, into arguments that he could not defend, other than to say that he was right.

I think he needs to change the title of the book to: The Irrational Dunce.

Why I have no confidence in the recovery, part IV.

Paul Krugman, as always, hits the nail on the head with this post in the NYT.

The world is being infected with a malaise I call poor logic.  It could lead us back into a world-wide recession, and we would expect to hear fiscal conservatives proclaim that it was the liberals who failed to act in time to save the economy by slashing sooner rather than later.

Of course, the lurking danger, is another world war based on economic restlessness and the politicians who would use the economic restlessness to their advantage.  Hitler rose from negative populism; Tea Party people sure sound like negative populists to me.  From a Slate article:

"Positive populism built on the hope that all Americans can get ahead stands a better chance of stirring the country to collective action than negative populism that depends on sustained anger and resentment."

Republicans out of touch?

Amazing but true, Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) apologized to BP, for the White House's insistence that it establish a Gulf oil spill fund. What in the world is Joe Barton thinking? It's BP's fault, it's BP's dime that's going to pay for the clean up and compensation for its mistakes. What's Joe Barton expecting...BIG GOVERNMENT to pay for the spill?

Joe Barton...seriously???

via BoingBoing

Deficit hawks pay attention.

From a NYT article on the drop of consumer prices in May while the CPI increased only modestly (0.1%):

David Semmens, a United States economist for Standard Chartered Bank. “Inflation is definitely not a concern in the short or medium term.”

If printing all this money (borrowing to spend) was supposed to create upward pressure on prices, as the deficit hawks have complained about, we're not seeing it at all.

Part III - why I have no confidence in the recovery.

The Senate in all of its wisdom, is too afraid to pass a unemployment compensation extension, despite profligate unemployment throughout the US. Now granted, the unemployment rates are extremely uneven from one state to the next, with Michigan holding the highest rate in April at 14%, while North Dakota holds the lowest rate at 3.8% in April. However, there are fully 15 states with double-digit unemployment, including 7 of the 10 most populous states.

Imagine what happens when unemployment is no longer funded. Within months, all of those people receiving unemployment will no longer have income. With no income, every one of them will drop BELOW THE POVERTY LINE.

Here's my question: If all of the unemployed people no longer have income and drop below the poverty line, what makes people so sure that the economy will recover, let alone stop the deficit spending? Medicaid spending will dramatically rise, food stamp programs will be bursting at the seams, and homeless shelters will be overwhelmed as people lose their homes.

Our recovery was tenuous to start with, as the resets of Alt-A loans were looming over us in the second half of 2010 through 2011. What do these people think will happen when people no longer have unemployment compensation? Jobs will suddenly appear out of nowhere? The economy will grow?

Will unicorns sprout from forests with leprechauns carrying pots of gold?

And hence, I have no confidence that the current economic recovery will hold. Actually, by the end of Summer, if we see California, Florida, Nevada, Michigan and Ohio unemployment rates once again creep upwards, we will know that we're headed for a double-dip, and a potentially devastating world-wide Depression.

Now, I understand the fears of a growing debt. However, what are investors doing? They are certainly NOT FLEEING the US Dollar, and they are most certainly buying US Bonds. Further, people continuously refer to Portugal, Spain, Iceland and Greece (among several) that have debt-to-GDP ratios above 100. Now, I've already explained why this is a stupid reference, owning to a lack of understanding that these countries have held extremely high debt ratios for a very long time. Default fears are high because not even a modest recovery can save these nations from their long-term spending problems.

To the contrary, the US' problems are short-term brought on by military spending of two wars, a massive drop in employment, and attempts to prevent the onset of a Depression.

FOLKS, THE US DEBT IS MANAGEABLE, LONG TERM!

Sigh...we're doomed.

Can't help but post two more.

Just can't ignore him.

This one's from last August...running alongside like a good dog.

Photos from Sunday.

I dunno, these just seemed interesting to me.

They look so weird but perfectly organic.

Gotta rest between playing fetch.

Resting in the grass before walking back home - the worst part of the day, really.

This one was actually from April 30th. Bored from papa working on the computer instead of playing. Papa's sweatshirt sure feels comfy, especially on the Ikea bed that he just completed painting and assembling.

When stating the obvious becomes news.

This just in: Oil executives explain that BP's deep water drilling accidentis atypical.
A BIG DUH!
We know these big, catastrophic events are rare. And that's the problem...why didn't they mitigate for such rare but catastrophic events? I mean to ask, do they only plan for the small stuff that is inconsequential?

Really, what sort of company plans for the best scenarios and hopes for the best scenarios? Reminds me of when they were placing booms early on, complaining that the environment wasn't cooperating. Like, who's that stupid to expect an oil spill to occur during the most ideal conditions?

Congress should be asking oil companies to submit ALL contingency plans for accidents, and have them undergo public scrutiny, instead of taking their word that this type of accident "should not occur". What's the point in making such pronouncements? You can't save the devastation of the environment by having oil executives affirming the rarity of such blowouts.

Don't you want to know what emergency contingency plans these companies have?

Cat amused by japanese piggy bank toy.

Made me smile.

via Make Magazine

Does the iPad still have a security hole?

According to the original source of the vulnerability, the iPad's hole remains wide open.

In my best Beavis giggle, I say, "Plug it up, plug it up, plug it up."  Kudos for anyone that recognized the quote from, "Carrie".

via Engadget

Interesting read about Solid State Drives (SSDs)

I've been contemplating getting an SSD to boost my workstation given all the graphic-intensive work that I do. When you research magnetic hard drive (standard hard drives), you would typically look for the Mean Time Between Failure (MTBF), which gives you an idea of how long you might expect the drive to last.  With SSDs, it's not so simple, because every one uses different parameters of measurement.  Intel uses the standard MTBF, while most others will use writes per block.

In a happy accident while researching Western Digital's newest media player (WD Live TV Plus) I noticed they had a section on their SSDs, which I clicked through.  More importantly, they had a bunch of white papers, one of which caught my eye: "NAND Evolution and its Effects on Solid State Drive (SSD) Useable Life".

Briefly, the physical architecture of each cell of memory in an SSD means that as you keep writing and erasing data stored in that cell, the physical properties of it will break down.  This limitation is described as maximum cycles read/write per cells.  Because of this limitation, SSDs now have leveling technology where, instead of writing sequentially, they will in fact spread out writes across the entire SSD.

Now, if you read that article, it goes into depth about proposed measurements and descriptions of usable life of an SSD.  But here's the bottom line: If you plan to utilize 80GB of data storage (temporary cache and programs), you DO NOT want to buy an 80GB SSD, as it will cut down on the longevity and speed of your SSD severely, and render the leveling technology relatively moot.  What you want to do, is buy an SSD at least twice as large as the space that you plan to ultimately use.

I think I need to repeat that twice: Buy an SSD that is TWICE as large as you plan to use it for.

Now, here's another piece of info: SSDs are increasing in capacity and lowering costs much faster than Moore's theoretical law of transistors on a CPU, which means that by next year, we will see terabyte SSDs, and those 256GB SSDs will be closer to $1/GB than the current $2~$3/GB.  At the same time however, we also know that standard magnetic hard drives continue to drop in price and increase in capacity, at nearly the same rate as Moore's Law.  This time next year, I can easily see many OEMs including a 256GB SSD with a secondary storage drive of 1TB or more.

Of course, I'm no closer to a decision on buying an SSD than before I read that white paper...but at least I have a better grasp on SSDs.

Saw this cute photo.

Let Summer begin.

via SFGate from pacdog.blogspot.com

Had papaya this morning.

I remember the first time I had papaya when I was a kid, I thought the seeds looked like frog/toad eggs.  I remember that I had to have my mother clean out the eggs before I could eat from the papaya.  What young kid wants to clean out the frog eggs on their own, right?  Anyway, the flavor is good and very sweet when ripe, but it's even better if you spread some lemon on it.

High waters on the Willamette River last week.

Not anywhere near as high as it was in 1996, but this was the highest I've seen since then.

.

That boon in the water, btw, was a physical boundary around the fleet week Navy ships parked on the waterfront

More fake-smart people.

Paul Krugman pulled out an excellent quote from John Maynard Keynes:

That (classical economics) reached conclusions quite different from what the ordinary uninstructed person would expect, added, I suppose, to its intellectual prestige. That its teaching, translated into practice, was austere and often unpalatable, lent it virtue."

Krugman's blog entry is titled, "The Seductiveness Of Demands For Pain", but really, aren't we talking about more fake-smart people?

Which then goes into another subject: Useless titles, degrees and distinctions. A lot of people who are concerned about their own insecurities, will show off their titles, awards and distinctions in their business cards. Why show me your peacock feathers; are you afraid that I won't be able to spot your knowledge from simply talking to you?

PAC-10 expansion rumors.

I really don't get it. Rumors have it that the PAC-10 is considering adding 6 Big-12 teams, including Colorado, Texas, Texas A&M, Texas Tech, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State.

If distance is not an issue, why not just grab Notre Dame and Ohio State instead of Texas Tech and Oklahoma State?  Why bring two more institutions that are third tier schools (Texas Tech, Oklahoma State)?

FBI warns of the terrorist's new tactic: The suspicious bag.

This story is just hilarious, when you think about it. We Americans pride ourselves on being fearless, but the terrorists have figured out, that in fact, we're quite afraid of the suspicious bag. Why, we're so scared of the suspicious bag, that we'll stop all activity, clear out entire buildings, divert traffic and resources to investigate the suspicious bag.

Imagine that. Terrorists using the suspicious bag to scare Americans. Welcome to the USA, home of the not-so-brave.

via BoingBoing, WABC

Proof of fake-smart people!

This LA Times article best illustrates the vast stupidity currently infecting the global media and economists. On the one hand, the article points out that Britain and Germany are planning to cut back their spending with government austerity measures, while the US is worried that such actions will stall the recovery. On the other hand, markets have grown jittery because of the cut backs being signaled by Germany and Britain, while the markets have grown wary of the mounting US debt.

So you see folks, you can't win with these fake-smart people, because there is no answer from them as to how to resolve our way out of the global recession into solid growth; if you introduce austerity measures, you're damned; if you continue to stimulate via federal spending, you're damned.

You can't move forward, you can't move backward, you can't remain in inertia. The media and the other fake-smart people have difficulty determining the proper way to go anywhere these days!

And yet another reason to be resigned to a double-dip recession coming next year.

Variations on light fixture 15.

Variation "A".  No soft edges; all sharp angles.

Variation "B".  All soft edges, inward shape.

Variation "C".  Blend of soft curve with sharp angles, outward shape.

Variation "D".  Same as "C", except inward shape.

Variation "E".  Similar to "C" but with a bump back to the interior in the middle.

I had two others besides these, and I might do more, but so far, I am liking "A" and "B", and the converse design of "B" which would be simply the same design except the curve is to the outside. I like these as a series, and might make them my first official series...sad naming convention, but I think I'll just stick with "Light Fixture 15".

I just lost all confidence in the economic recovery.

Britain's Prime Minister David Cameron was quoted as saying, "Nothing illustrates better the total irresponsibility of the last government’s approach than the fact that they kept ratcheting up unaffordable government spending even when the economy was shrinking." And repeated the oft used fallacious causality that has become fashionable of late, "Greece stands as a warning of what happens to countries that lose their credibility, or whose governments pretend that difficult decisions can be avoided."

What a flipping idiot.

Do you know WHY Greece (and some other countries in the Euro Zone) are in trouble? It's because of LONG-TERM, huge deficits that they've been carrying.

This first chart shows Greece's Debt to GDP ratio, in comparison to the Euro Zone average.

This second chart shows the US' Debt to GDP ratio. The astute observer will notice that the blue-colored regions represent Democratic Presidents and red-colored regions represent Republican Presidents.  I've said it before, but the last three Republican presidents were all about spending, and did nothing to cut the debt.

This third chart represents Britain's Debt to GDP ratio.

Now, if you take a look at the three graphs, you will notice one striking difference between Greece and the US and Britain: Greece has been running huge debts relative to their GDP for a very long time.
So when PM Cameron tries to tie Greece's current situation with where either the US's or Britain's economy stands, you have to have some serious reservations of the sanity of these leaders. They are talking about enacting austerity measures (cutting spending) even before the global economy has had a chance to recover. What we just went through was once or twice in a lifetime global economic panic. Narrow-minded people like to apply short-term history and think that this recovery is already over, and that they can apply Adam Smith's minimalist government dogma to any situation, including this one. That's a huge mistake to go back to thinking within the box.

Hence, I just lost all confidence in the economic recovery.

Always Remember to Respect and Honor Your Mother - Dusted

One of my favorite songs. When you forget, you listen to remember, to respect and honor your mother.

Video isn't that awesome by today's standards, but the music is incredible.

by Dusted.

Compilation of recent design ideas and variations.

Image 1: Variation 1 of 14c.

Image 2: Variation 2 of 14c.

Image 3: New idea, 14d, although should probably be classified as separate idea, 15a.

Image 4: 14e - k, although they should really be variants of the previous (14d)...I'm leaning towards a couple of these variations, and will do close up renders of the ones that I like the most. This one has the Thea Render watermark, as I'm using it to see whether or not I want to pay for the Thea Render, stick with the free Kerkythea Renderer (from same group of people that have produced the commercial Thea Render), or to go with some other, cheaper commercial renderer.

Some different ways of looking at the US economy.

You can see the curve sliding downward having reached a peak, on the BLS' underutilization rate, Table A-15, figure U-6.

Meanwhile, you can see that the weekly hours of non-farm, private employees from BLS' Table B-2 has begun to recover.

It almost appears that weekly hours should recover to pre-recession levels in about 6 months, which would then give pressure to hiring new employees, but the real job growth won't happen until very late this year, and mostly next year.

I hate stupid people, part three.

I just read this article, "iPhone triples Android in mobile market share" and felt compelled to respond to the fallacy within it, and the idiot people who don't understand how to read data.

In fact, both Android and iPhone platforms gained two percentage points, not simply grown by two percent.  Thus, Android has gained market share FASTER than the iPhone.

26% / 7% = 3.71x iPhone market share over Android, Q1-2009
28% / 9% = 3.11x iPhone market share over Android, Q1-2010

Given that the iPhone was released 1 1/2 years ahead of the first Android smartphone, it should make sense that Android's platform would be behind that of iPhone, in terms of market share.  On October 23, 2008, this article could have easily read, "iPhone 10000x Android in mobile market share", the first day Android phones went on sale.

One more photo.

Was taken last August (2009), mid-afternoon or so.  I just saw this plane flying overhead while I was sitting down, and thought it would make for an interesting photo juxtaposed with the apartment building's angles.

Some random photos over the past few weeks.

Caught this on Memorial Day.  A school bus, converted to a boat.  They even had a functional horn that they used.  Cute.

Saw this last week at Powell Books.  I couldn't help but figure that no one would accidentally place a book called "Turn Me On" next to "Better Off".

Had some cold soba noodles two weeks ago; thought I'd take a picture of it first. Yes, that's Ikea melamine dishes.  Also, shown, stoneware from Japan - tea cup.  In the picture you can see sliced egg, green onions, kamaboko and nori on one plate, the soba noodles in the other plate, a cup of genmai cha, and a bowl of tsuyu for the noodles.

Too toxic to handle, yet approved for use in the environment?

You don't often come across scary stories like this one.  A chemical so toxic (Methyl Iodide), that scientists are wary of handling it, and is specifically used to induce cancer cells, is on the verge of being approved for use in soils, prior to planting of strawberries in California.  But wait, it's worse than that.  It was approved by George Bush's EPA in 2007, and the EPA standard of exposure is much higher (5x) than California's proposed regulation.  What's scary about that, is that 47 states have already licensed the usage of this chemical, and 12 states have allowed it to be used it at least once: Florida, North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, Virginia, West Virginia, Michigan, Maine, New Jersey and Oregon.

Only licensed individuals are allowed to handle this stuff, but that's not the real world.  In the real world, anyone with two hands and a respirator will end up using it, using it in excess, and then illegally dumping the left over chemical.

Does the US suffer from an ego issue?

We see the US pressing Israel to make peace with the Palestinians, and we saw the US take on a central role in peace between Ireland's Protestants and Catholics.  So why can't the US let the Taliban and Afghan government come together to find a political solution?  Find (and kill) Osama Bin Laden and Al Zawahiri and let's get out of Afghanistan already.  No way can we fix Afghanistan by imposing our will; just complete the mission to kill Al Qaeda's top organization, and call it a war.

Aren't we being hypocritical when we ask our friends to resolve their disputes through diplomacy and politics, yet when it involves our own interests, we're more apt to use force?

Lighting fixture type 14b

This one popped in my head while I was sketching on paper variations of 13.  I couldn't let it go, so I worked on two variations of it.  Will see how other materials look on it; currently showing delrin, but would consider wood and/or acrylic.

Light fixture 13 without the light turned on.

Changed out materials on the current light design.

Light13, aka Lincoln Logs.  Switched out from all-acrylic, to mix of bamboo and acrylic.  Looks better this way, but it's still a first iteration of an idea based on an attachment system.