5 Thoughts for October 31, 2017

1. Halloween: This will sound absolutely anti-Halloween, but one of the benefits of living in a secured, multistory housing structure is that you don't get trick-or-treaters. No money required to spend on candy. It's been this way for me for as long as I can remember. If I had a house, however, I might be tempted to deck it out in scary paraphernalia and reward those brave souls who made it through the Path of Horrors. All I need are a bunch of programmed Raspberry Pi devices to create a series of randomly unexpected events along this Path of Horrors.
2. John Kelly: His notional understanding of many things is astoundingly simplistic and superficial. In two weeks, he's gone from a man who brought order to the White House to a man who might best be described as what a restrained Donald Trump would look like (if such a thing existed) -- which is to say that the only thing that separates Donald from Kelly is restraint. A White man always has the opportunity to take the preposterous position that the Civil War occurred because of a lack of willingness to compromise -- it's not his existential conflict. Besides, how can he not get that the foundation of this country was, itself, a war for freedom -- is there a compromise in freedoms that would, should, or could have led us to not declaring our independence from Britain? Finally, perhaps no one's realized this yet, but Kelly just denounced Donald's penchant for red lines, especially the one he's drawn with North Korea and nuclear weapons. A thoughtful and well-considered person understands the implications of every position, not just his/her own. Kelly's more of an automaton.
3. About the Manhattan Truck Attack: Let it be known, today's attack was delivered via a foreign national who came from what is colloquially called the -Stans, otherwise known as Central Asia. We've seen this before, too. The Boston bombers came from this region. Guess who exerts the greatest influence over this region. Have you figured it out yet? Russia. This is where the alternative Cold War is being played out, between the US attempting to stem the flow of terrorism into these countries countered by Russia's fear of being surrounded by US-aligned nations. Donald has no share in the blame, mind you, but this attack highlights why he foreign policy is short-sighted and missing the targets. In his updated ban, Donald had lots of time to have his foreign policy and national security teams go over and create a new list. In the new list -- Chad, Iran, Libya, Syria, Venezuela, Yemen, Somalia, and North Korea -- there isn't a single Central Asian country or region listed. Thus, any attempts to use this attack as an argument in support of a foreign visa ban is, in fact, incorrect and deluded.
4. Pokemon Go - Chansey: You can't pop more than one of any species of a Pokemon into a gym, so people pop in the highest-rated defensive mons into the gym to make it difficult to take over. What many people are beginning to understand, however, is that those massive CP Blisseys lose motivation fairly quickly, eventually making them very easy to defeat after four hours or so. Even weaker players can beat a Blissey on their own, after 8 hours. That's where Chansey comes into play. Chansey's a beast in the current system. If you power her up to her max -- 1469 -- then, even after 8 hours she'll be over 1000 CP. By comparison, a 3000 CP Blissey will have lower CP at the end of 8 hours. That's why I'm working to max out my Chansey's CP and why I won't be evolving my Chansey into a Blissey. Also, I'm 2/3rds of the way through level 35 and I still haven't spent any money.
5. Stranger Things 2: This is literally, my coming of age story. Except, the show gets all of the tiny details wrong. It's 1984 and, sure, you might hear some Devo, but we were already past that point and into Duran Duran's Seven and the Ragged Tiger album with Union of the Snake, The Reflex, and New Moon on Monday, and oh by the way, Prince's Purple Rain was at the top of the charts. This was a time when there were basically six genres on the radio: Classic Rock, Top-40, Classical, Talk, Oldies, Easy Listening (like Muzak's elevator music). And sure, there was something like an AV club, but by 1984 we geeks were already forming computer clubs and programming in BASIC. And OMG, what's with all of the clichés? Nonetheless, the underlying plot is interesting and fun.

10 Thoughts on Monday's Indictments

1. First Conviction: By his guilty plea, George Papadopoulos has provided Robert Mueller the first conviction stemming from his ongoing investigation into Trump-Russia collusion, aka conspiracy against the US and possibly treason. Just five months into his investigation and the first conviction has been obtained.
2. Best Case Scenario: Under the kindest interpretation of the explanations by the Trump administration, Donald's team did no due diligence prior to creating associations with various people. Under this scenario, however, the Trump administration is admitting incompetence. Think about that for a bit. Trump's team is incompetent. Heh. We already knew that. Yet, the administration can be both incompetent and guilty of criminal actions. For instance, out of sheer incompetence, Donald Jr and Jared Kushner illegally chased down a meeting with Russians to obtain proof coming directly from the Russian government.
3. Worst Case Scenario: In Papadopoulos' plea agreement, Mueller's team offered up, "There's a large scale ongoing investigation of which this case is a small part." That's extremely damning and dire words for Donald's administration, and I'm not talking about just Donald; this could include Mike Pence, given that we know he lied to the public about his knowledge of Mike Flynn's activities. It is likely involving Donald's family, too. We know Donald Jr and Jared Kushner met with Russian officials who dangled a carrot, then lied about it. You can see what I'm getting at, here, with Don Jr and Kushner -- I think under both scenarios they're going to be indicted at the very end.
4. Mueller's Probably Not Leaking: There was shock today when it was revealed that George Papadopoulos had been under a sealed indictment for months, and had signed a plea deal one month ago. He was, for the most part, completely off the radar of journalists. It was also somewhat of a surprise that Richard Gates was indicted; while he was closely associated with Manafort, clearly no one knew about how close this association was, not even the White House (see: sheer incompetence of White House). Essentially, Mueller's team is not the one leaking.  Leaks only damage their ability to leverage their case against individuals into cooperation, whereas lawyers might leak if they think getting the story out in front of the public sooner than later will eventually lessen the damage and allow them to try the case in the court of public opinion -- especially with Donald's base.
5. Who's Next: We know who has lied in public about contacts with Russians, so let's just presume that they're all targets -- lies are, after all, an atttempt to redirect away from the truth. Mike Flynn and Carter Page are two obvious choices for the next round of indictments because both were already revealed to have failed to register as foreign agents under FARA. 
6. The Real Targets: We generally know which members of the Trump Campaign have been in the broad discussions over Russia, and of those,  have been interviewed by the FBI. We can, crudely, interpret that the people who haven't yet been interviewed but have long been in the Russia discussion, are the real targets. Therefore, we know for sure that at the very least, Donald, Don Jr., and Jared Kushner are at the very top of the chain. But, we also know that Jay Sekulow and Jeff Sessions have knowledge about Russian interactions and they haven't yet been interviewed by the FBI, which is to say that it's a very strong possibility that these two are just one rung removed from the top. We'll know soon enough, by which people get interviewed next.
7. Donald's Poll Numbers: Since last Friday, when we learned about the grand jury's indictments, Donald's approval numbers have taken a huge hit. Gallup shows a net -5 point loss in a matter of three days. We know this story is going to continue to expand, especially over the next few days as journalists make up for the missing narrative that was created by George Papadopoulos' conviction. This is going to be one hell of a week in politics.
8. New York: Lest we forget, NY AG Eric Schneiderman is also conducting his own investigation, in cooperation with Mueller's team. This matters, insofar that a conviction under state laws cannot be pardoned by POTUS as he has no jurisdiction. Given how things have played out so far, it would be foolish not to assume that Mueller and Schneiderman have played out full scenarios and are already following their agreed-upon strategy of investigations and indictments.
9. Timing of Trials: Even under the best outcomes, a speedy trial requires a few months of pretrial motions, appeals, and scheduling conflicts. This is to say, Manafort and Gates won't be in trials until next year. They're just the tip of the iceberg, however, which means that 2018 could be the Year of Endless Trials and Indictments, or YETI for short. That bodes extremely poorly for Republicans in Congress and their 2018 midterm chances. Imagine the ongoing questions posed to Republicans about their failures to broach the subject of impeachment and their attempts to attack any investigations into the Trump campaign.
10. The Beginning of the End?: If his removal from office is the end, then Monday was not the beginning of the end. I would argue, the day he won the election was the beginning of the end. If he'd lost exactly as he'd reportedly anticipated, no one would have cared as much that Russia may have colluded with his campaign -- in this case, people would have tended to believe that Russia's interference was ineffectual and deserving of mockery instead of scrutiny. The spotlight he invited eventually provided the room to appoint Robert Mueller to look into Donald's financial dealings. Without Rod Rosenstein's specific letter granting Mueller wide powers to investigate, no one would have been able to follow the money up the chain to Donald. Just saying, only an idiot would run for office despite a lot of backroom deals and a long history of criminal settlements.

All of the Liars

Here is a current list of Trump Campaign-affiliated people who lied (publicly or to FBI) about meetings with Russians over campaign-related topics:

• Paul Manafort
• Carter Page
• Mike Flynn
• Richard Gates
• Jared Kushner
• Jeff Sessions
• Donald Trump Jr.
• George Papadopoulos

Why have so many people affiliated with the Trump Campaign lied about their contacts with Russian officials? 

As the idiom goes, where there's smoke there's fire.

5 Thoughts for October 26, 2017

1. Pokemon Go: On October 8, I leveled up to 35. I'm now past the halfway mark to reaching level 36. I'm moving up faster than anticipated, now that I've figured out my system. I ran into another player the other night. She's at level 38 and only started around Easter of this year, but she's already spent $160. I haven't spent any money at all, so, you know, I'm anticipating that it'll be around next Summer when I reach level 40. I am enjoying driving people at higher levels bonkers, though, by hitting them over and over at the gyms, forcing them to waste all of their golden razz berries and spend even more money, while turning them into paranoid obsessives -- imagine not knowing when I'll strike and take your gym down. All that is needed on my part, is to change up my long walks to shorter, more frequent walks, to make quick hits on gyms. Oh, and two high-quality Dragonites. Aside from a 100% Mewtwo, there is no better attacker, period. But frankly, I've already achieved gold status on those gyms, so, I'm just bypassing them for the gyms where I haven't yet achieved gold.
2. Cleaning Trick: I just realized that to clean out stainless steel pots from stains, I can simply use bleach and water. The stains I'm talking about are coffee and tea stains (tannins) that color the coffee press and carafe. I should have figured this out a long time ago; instead, I stumbled on it while bleaching a pot filled with some mold from forgotten tea. Then, instead of letting that bleach go to waste, I plug up the sink and pour the solution into the sink to sit as it clears out whatever's staining the sink's bottom.
3. Kaspersky: I think the media has the details slightly wrong. I suspect that, rather than being able to search for files based on names, Russia was able to access the digital signatures of files being scanned on a computer to determine whether or not that physical computer should be targeted for additional access. AV software works by comparing the digital signature of known viruses/malware to files on a device, which is not the same as being able to read the entire contents of your computer's files or the names of the files. If you, for instance, had in your possession, the known digital signature of an uncommon software file that only certain people would have -- e.g. a specific RSA2048-related authentication software file that was primarily used by military and associated contractors -- you could then pinpoint your IP address targets for unpatched vulnerabilities. The point is, Kaspersky may not have willingly cooperated with Russian FSB, yet, their traffic is accessible to the FSB, one way or another.
4. Reusable/Paper Coffee Filters: For a good long time, I've been using a reusable gold tone filter, thinking it'd be saving me money and good for the environment. I've temporarily switched back to paper filters. While I recouped by $ on the reusable filter fairly quickly, the problem I'd found was that I was constantly using up a lot of water to clean the filter after each use while washing down a significant amount of grind down the drain (even though I'd dumped most of it in the trash.)  Also, the reusable filter lets through all of the fines, which creates a sludge at the bottom of the cup. It's nice not to have to fuss with cleaning the filter and drinking sludge.
5. Theory of Niger Deaths: It seems as though many protocols were broken, allowing the deaths of four Green Berets to occur in Niger. That no one seems to be willing to talk about it or explain why we have so many American forces -- 800 personnel -- in Niger, highlights one very strong possibility: Because Donald gave military commanders the freedom to deploy/use force (as they saw fit) without first receiving the go-ahead from Donald, the military ran with it and got into trouble, and are now reticent to admit errors even as Donald had remained uninformed about their actions until after the fact. Presented with the outcome, Donald faced an acknowledgment that his decision to free the military had come back to bite him in the ass -- something he refuses to confront. This is why, contrary to offering condolences and reassurances, Donald pushed back by telling the widow of La David Johnson that he knew what he was signing up for. By pushing the onus on the military, Donald's attempting to remove personal responsibility as Commander in Chief of the armed forces.

5 Thoughts on PAC-12 Football Week 9

1. No One Knows What USC Will Do: It feels like we're at a tipping point in Helton's tenure and in USC's season. Sure, they're 4-1 in the PAC-12, but that's before we saw the most-lopsided loss to ND in a generation (1977, 19-49) and they looked like they regressed on a number of levels with the mental errors. The team should rebound, but USC's lost two of the last three games in Tempe at night and Saturday's game is ever so slightly later than usual -- 7:45 pm -- making for a very late night ending with what looks to be a very tired USC team. If USC loses to ASU, it's almost a foregone expectation that Helton will be fired at the end of the season. In other words, USC, with its back against the wall, should win this one in convincing fashion. But no one really knows what USC will do.
2. Trojans Outside of the Ballpark: It's not that USC has two losses, but that the second loss exposed how poorly USC's playing right now, which points to why USC is far outside of the CFP talk. The loss to ND wouldn't have been a bad loss if it were close, but it was, for all practical purposes, a bright demarcation between a good team getting better and a good team descending into mediocrity (at best). That's why the game at ASU matters a great deal -- if they lose, it puts a stamp on the direction of the team. Odds still have USC as the favorite +3.5, but they're 1-7 against the spread, so...
3. The Phoenix Rises: The Arizona schools are getting better as the season ages. Whereas they started the season near the bottom, they're now moving up to the upper half of the PAC-12. ASU looks a lot like how USC looked like last season where they turned the page in a tough loss to Utah to win out and beat Penn State in the Rose Bowl. Following the Sun Devils' loss to Stanford, they've taken down Washington and Utah. ASU's schedule is such that they could very well win out and go to the PAC-12 Championship. Unless that is, Arizona wins out, but UA has a much more difficult schedule to finish the season. What impresses me about the Wildcats, is the ability to win on the road.
4. Bowl Bound Teams?: We know, mathematically, WSU, UW, and USC are bowl-bound by virtue of having 6 wins. We also can safely assume that Stanford, needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible, is likely to get there tonight against Oregon State. By virtue of getting to host Oregon State and needing just one more win to become bowl-eligible, it's also highly probable that Arizona will be bowl-bound. By virtue of hosting Colorado and playing at Oregon State, Arizona State also looks like it'll be bowl-eligible. Cal, UCLA, Oregon, and Utah remain in the hunt, but realistically, I don't see how Oregon wins two more games without Justin Hebert. At the moment, Oregon State and Colorado haven't been mathematically eliminated, but a loss to Stanford tonight will make the Beavers the first team eliminated from consideration. Colorado's not doing much better, however. Note, with the relaxation of rules, the NCAA does allow for 5-7 teams to go to a bowl game if there aren't enough 6-6 teams.
5. Grading Willie Taggart and Justin Wilcox: Which coach is doing better in his first season in as HC in the PAC-12? Before Herbert's injury, you could see how Taggart got the offense moving again, but the defense has, and always was, Oregon's shortcoming. Without Herbert, they're a terrible team in everything but the offensive running game. A good passing quarterback is almost always able to shred their secondary. Wilcox has Cal at 4-4 and has a reasonable chance at finishing better than Sonny Dykes' season last year, at 5-7. What stands out is their surprise win against WSU -- their only true bright spot. Their win on the roat at UNC wasn't a big win, given that UNC is currently at 1-7. I give Taggart a C+ and Wilcox a B-.

I Have Found My Truth.

"A calm and modest life brings more happiness than the pursuit of success combined with constant restlessness." -- Albert Einstein

It's my truth because reading it was a jolt of lightning awakening the realization of my unconscious choice, decades ago.

5 Thoughts on USC's Loss to ND

1. Lacking Fundamentals: Even if a player is the best athlete on the team, they can't be making multiple errors let alone repeating the same errors. These self-inflicted errors are a carry-over from last year and it comes from the coaches. You've heard it directly from the coaches, as a matter of fact: they've repeatedly told the media that they're willing to live with the errors of some players because they know how good they are. Well, those errors are blowing up, now. USC's three turnovers, badly timed penalties, dropped wide-open passes, and failed 27-yard field goal cost the team at least 24 points. This game would have been a completely different beast without all those unforced errors.
2. Sit Sam: From the first game to this last game, Sam Darnold just hasn't performed consistently, but it's gotten a lot worse with Sam making a ton of mental errors. To me, that's a sign that he's mentally and physically exhausted and not as sharp and quick as he should be. Such poor performances from its stars make USC absolutely mediocre and in turn, results in rough games against bad teams. If you want to run, make it a true run-option game package with Matt Fink. If you really believe you have a good team, use more of your players.
3. Stop Running: You're not fooling anyone by play-action pass, down 21 points. You're also wasting time and opportunities to get the ball moving. I mean, sure, when the defense starts playing 3 linemen and dropping 8 into zone coverage, the temptation to run is very high, but the only player who should be allowed to run is the QB -- scrambling into an empty spot on the field and slide. If you call a play to run when you're 21 points down, you look bad. The other side is laughing at your stubbornness.
4. Diagnosing the Defense: They're exhausted and they aren't tackling. I've read that they haven't been doing live tackling during practices which, I understand that being worn down from a season without a bye week means they're exhausted, but you can't stop live tackling during the season's practices. Tackling practice with dummies isn't worth a damn when a dummy can't do a jump step or pivot on the spot. We first saw the effects show up -- being exhausted and poor tackling -- last week against Utah, where Cam Smith was attempting to save his body and bounce off hard hits rather than deliver big blows. It's time to rotate players and do live tackling, Clancy. If you'd been doing this all season long, the front 7 wouldn't be in such rough shape.
5. Coaching Changes?: Inevitably, some schools have much higher aspirations and expectations. USC is one of those schools, and for a variety of reasons, they've fallen short of expectations. Interestingly, this is almost entirely because of Pete Carroll's success and dominance of college football during his tenure. That's why fans will, yet again, be calling for a head coaching change. But that's a mistake. Give Clay Helton some time and I really think he'll build his system and make the program successful and stable. Helton's aw shucks demeanor, as I've mentioned, drives a lot of people furious. But you might have noticed, we actually saw Angry Helton during the game, albeit directed at officials rather than players and coaches. If he learns to direct his anger at the right times and the right people, he'll be much more effective as a coach.

5 Thoughts on PAC-12 Football Week 8

1. USC-ND: There's a lot on the line in this game as both teams have one loss and it's assumed that a second loss would keep the loser of this game out of the CFP. But that might not exactly be the case with either team. Both teams will have an opportunity to win out and end the season without a "bad" loss. But I think USC wins this one in a blowout (or a last-minute come-from-behind shocker). USC-ND is a mismatch of strengths. USC's strength on offense is the passing game (296.4 ypg) which lines up to ND's weakness on defense (231.2 ypg). ND's strength on offense is the rushing game (308.0 ypg) which is USC's stronger half of the defense (146.7 ypg). If you force a modest passing quarterback to pass a lot, he will throw a lot of interceptions and miss his receivers. If the game is tight, USC's passing offense has the ability to race down the field in under a minute. The oddsmakers have ND as a 3 1/2 point favorite, which is a fairly tight game. A tight game favors USC's passing offense.
2. The State of Washington: Woe is the state, whose two ranked power-five teams lost to unheralded teams. Road games are harder to win than home matches, but seeing Washington lose to Arizona State is curious. They can't be accused of looking ahead -- they have a bye week this week -- yet they came out flat and stayed flat. Perhaps they're not good enough to make it to the playoffs after all. WSU was always a streaky, uneven team, and it showed at Cal. Yes, they're a good team, but they're not a great team just yet. This week, they'll get all of their frustrations out by blowing up Colorado in Pullman.
3. What Happened to Colorado?: I'm dumbfounded at how bad Colorado is this year. They're on the razor's edge between finishing 6-6 and 5-7. Last year, they finished the regular season at 10-2 before losing in the PAC-12 Championship and the Alamo Bowl. Oh wait, I see it now. They were always pretenders, as opposed to contenders, as evidenced from last year's finish. I was fooled!
4. Oregon's Physical Game: Is nonexistent. So much for all that talk and fall camp push for a more physical team, eh? They got manhandled by Stanford. And as I said before, their secondary is questionable, getting ripped by Keller Chryst. They're not a bad team, but they're still firmly stuck in the middle tier of the PAC-12, especially without Justin Hebert. They're favored against UCLA, but do you really pick the Ducks secondary to beat Josh Rosen on the road? When Rosen is on fire, he's tough to beat, especially when he throws to Caleb Wilson. Until the Ducks show that they can win without Hebert, I'm having trouble seeing them reach a bowl game.
5. Power Rank: From best to worst, going into week 8, USC, UW, Stanford, WSU, Utah, Cal, ASU, Arizona, UCLA, Oregon, Colorado....
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   
   ....Oregon State.

5 Thoughts on USC's Win over Utah

1. Huge Step Forward: Beating Utah was a huge step forward. This has all the hallmarks of a season-changing game, where the offense finally looked like it was ready for a run to the playoffs. Even with all of the errors and being down 21-7 at the half, this team fought back. That second half was one of the best halves of a football game USC has played this year, given the number of starters that were sidelined by injuries.
2. Cam Smith is Worn Down: I'm sure everyone saw it, as Cam Smith got bulldozed multiple times. He may have gotten a ton of tackles but most of them weren't pretty. It also looked like he was trying to save his body by avoiding unnecessary contact and bouncing off hits rather than delivering them. Rest him during the week. You know what he can do for you and you know he's mentally prepared to play. Let this be a warning to all: Never schedule a season like USC's, where there is not a single bye week.
3. USC is USC's Biggest Problem: If you count (3) turnovers and (3) penalties as unforced errors, USC had five unforced errors in the first half and just one in the second half -- a kickoff out of bounds. That split also showed up in how well the team performed in each half. With all of the talent USC has, USC's biggest obstacle to winning games is itself.
4. Offense is Much Better: The offense was moving well, except of course, the mental errors that turned the ball over near or in the red zone. When they stopped the mental errors, the Trojans were scoring. 532 yards of offense and 83 plays. Had they not committed unforced errors, the game would have been a blowout with Trojans winning 45 - 28. A large part of their success against the Utes came from an offensive line that blocked well and receivers sacrificing their body to catch the ball. Aside from the turnovers, this was huge, considering the quality of the defense they were up against.
5. Jack Jones: Before the season I stated that Adoree Jackson would not be missed nearly as much as people thought he'd be on defense. Jack Jones just showed how solid of a cornerback he is against the Utes, shutting down his side of the field. Utah's Troy Williams all but stopped throwing in his direction, instead, targeting Ajene Harris and Iman Marshall. In the secondary, Jones is the brightest star in his first year as a starter and his star will only grow brighter. Every once in a while, the video catches his face and you can see an Earl Thomas intensity in it. I'm excited about him.

5 Thoughts on PAC-12 Football Week 7

1. Oregon State is Really Bad: As mentioned before the season started, I thought OSU would be at the very bottom of the PAC-12. So far, they haven't disappointed. They were lucky to beat Portland State -- a team that had dominated them with the exception of turnovers -- otherwise, they'd be winless this year. Having said that, I don't understand Gary Andersen resigning at the midway point. Sure, the team has reverted back to the Pettibone era, but now the team is down a paid coaching position and recruiting still takes a hit. Whatever. Maybe OSU will get lucky and Mike Riley will become available in a couple of weeks?
2. Oregon is Still Average: It was a foregone conclusion that Oregon would lose to WSU, but it had nothing to do with the injury of Justin Herbert. Their secondary was the problem, going up against a really good passing team. And, as I mentioned two weeks ago, the reason why they had to beat Cal was that they were about to enter the hardest part of their schedule and might not win another game until they play their last two games -- Arizona and Oregon State. Now, with Herbert out 4-6 weeks (I doubt he comes back to play the final two games, though) it's even more likely that they end the season 6-6 at best. Arizona's been looking better, having barely lost to Utah and beating Colorado in Boulder, so, 5-7?
3. Washington Will Win PAC-12: They're not quite like the dominant USC teams under Pete Carroll, but they are damn consistent and solid. I've said this the past two weeks, now, especially in light of USC's difficulties, that USC might have better talent but Washington's done a better job with what they have. I don't particularly like the Huskies, truth be told, but you have to admire the job that coach Chris Petersen has done up there in all aspects of the game. The defense is flying around and holding opponents to an average of 10 points a game, while the offense is crushing it, averaging 43 points a game. Mind you, they're still not at the level of Clemson and Alabama in terms of talent, unlike USC. This is why USC, despite their poor level of play, remains a dark horse of sorts -- you never know if their talent will show up in a game and dominate.
4. Biggest Surprise is Colorado: I don't think anyone expected Colorado to lose their first three PAC-12 games. Sure, the loss to UW was expected, but to UCLA and Arizona? They've gone from the upper middle tier to the bottom of the middle tier (because Oregon State is in a bottom tier all by itself, so far separated from the rest of the league). It's extremely surprising because last year QB Steven Montez looked good when he was inserted to replace the injured Sefo Liufau, such that they had a mini QB controversy in the middle of the season last year. So what happened? They have two established senior wide receivers in Shay Fields and Devin Ross and senior Philip Lindsay at running back.
5. Midway Season Ranking: Now that we're halfway through the season, here's where I think the PAC-12 teams stand, in order from best to worst: Washington, WSU, USC, Stanford, Utah, UCLA, Oregon, Cal, Arizona, Colorado, Arizona State...
   
   
   
   
   
   Oregon State.

This is a Funny Story of Frustration (Repost)

TL;DR -- I spent a week searching for a solution to a discrepancy that, in the end, did not actually exist.

Five Thoughts on USC's Win Against Oregon State, Halfway Mark

1. Good Enough, Not Great: If not for USC subbing Matt Fink for Sam Darnold with 7-1/2 minutes left in the game and Fink taking that QB option to run for 51 yards and a touchdown, it's not clear that USC would have scored again. Had the final score been 31 - 10, USC would have owned the ignoble distinction of scoring the least number of points by an OSU opponent this season. The Trojans are good enough to win most games, but they're not great enough to win the national championship, at least, not if the season ended today.
2. Best Unit: I really like the defensive line (and more broadly the front seven). So many questions, so many difficulties, yet, the defensive line seems to answer the call and step up -- Big Kenechi Udeze (BKU) will eventually become a defensive coordinator, I'm sure. If not for the subpar offensive line play of late -- largely because of the rash of injuries -- I would have had the running backs as the best unit. Both units looked spectacular in fall camp drill videos and all that work carried over into games. If you look at special teams, aside from a ton of mistakes, they've improved the most since the first game. That's it.
3. Getting Better?: This is the question everyone is asking. The answer, of course, is that over the first half of the season some players definitely got better -- Christian Rector, Jack Jones, Ronald Jones, Tyler Vaughns -- and yet, it doesn't feel as though this year's squad has made the big improvements over the first six games as last year's squad. The inconsistency is why it's so difficult to see where the improvements are.
4. The Talent-Results Differential: For the past four years, OSU has at or near the bottom of the PAC-12 in recruiting while USC has been ranked #1 all that time. Yet, it wasn't clear through the entire game that the teams were separated by talent by a wide margin -- something that was hoped for and expected. All teams have lulls, but USC seems to constantly fall into them this year. Still, if USC ends up 11-3 or 12-2, wouldn't that still qualify as success? I think I understand why people are frustrated and it has less to do with results and more about the clash of culture -- see #3 below.
5. Father Knows Best: Helton is very much like the 50s iconographic TV father who was stern but loving. Helton's soft delivery grates on so many people because we live in a completely different period in time where our caffeinated, intensely competitive world has eschewed pats on the back for chest bumps. We enjoyed the Pete Carroll - Jim Harbaugh feud because it lined up two very intense personalities against each other. With Helton, everything feels deconflicted. We miss the intensity. We miss conflict. When you listen to the players speak about the game and their opponents, they're projecting Helton. They deconflict.

Do the right things...

Do the right things...

not because you were told to;

not because it makes you look righteous;

not because everyone else is doing it;

not because it makes you feel good;

not because a religious edict demands it;

because they are right.

If you wanted to know if I had a personal credo and what it was, this is it. I'm not saying that I abide by it all the time -- I don't -- but that this is the rule I try to live by. It's something to strive for, even though I fail all the time.

Obviously, what is right is left ambiguous. This is not a credo with easy answers -- it demands that all things shall be considered carefully.

Five Observations on the LV Shooter and His Motive

The police and FBI are at a loss for explaining the Las Vegas shooter's motive. The few clues he left behind do not seem to point to a specific goal and of the thousands of leads they've received, none have panned out, leaving the FBI baffled. I offer five observations:

1. Not providing a clear motive can, in itself, point to a person who may have known that a stated motive would be counterproductive to his true goal -- a "motive paradox".
2. His target was a large group of people, pointing to a bigger message -- a political message.
3. The various venues he'd scoped out, including Lollapalooza, should indicate that Las Vegas and his gambling were generally coincidental factors. LV and his gambling informed his decision to make an open-air concert in LV his target, but LV and his gambling weren't related to his motive.
4. He wired money to his girlfriend. That was a way of breaking up with her.This implies, contrary to what some are suggesting, that he really wasn't expecting to survive this. The carload of fertilizer and ammo signaled something else other than his intention to survive.
5. I have a working theory of his motive, but it requires that he had a very high IQ _and_ was diagnosed as a psychopath. Until both are established, there is little point to identifying my working theory. But if you need a hint, the "motive paradox" is central.

Last Night's Dream

True story

I exceedingly overslept today, as I was chasing down a dream, one that, fortunately, did not involve free fallin. Instead, it was a dream about a workplace where, despite my desire to stay there, people stared at me with the unspoken demand, don't come around here no more. I ended up following some coworkers to speak to them about how things were. They told me yer so bad. I responded that you don't know how it feels, that I need to explain how things got this way.

Then I woke up.

I told myself, you got lucky that it wasn't real. But then I questioned myself, why would I try to save a job that I felt uncomfortable at? I've always been disinclined to beg. My motto is, it's good to be king, and by that, I mean that my choices are not constricted. I can -- and have always felt -- walk away at any time from any job. This freedom of choice is priceless.

Anyway, RIP Tom Petty.

5 Thoughts on Las Vegas Massacre

1. Sympathy and Empathy: I'm deeply saddened by this particular event. I can, I sympathize with people whose loved ones were killed or injured, but most of all, I feel extremely frustrated that hundreds of innocent people keep losing their lives to such meaningless violence. It's too painful that we keep having this discussion with zero changes.
2. I'm Shaken: I found out that my BFF's oldest daughter nearly attended that concert, but canceled. I've known her daughter for 14 years now. I knew she was the type to go to a country music show, and the moment I heard about the incident, she popped up in my thoughts. I don't think I could be strong enough for my BFF and her family had she been killed on Sunday evening.
3. It Could Have Been Much Worse: They found thousands of rounds of ammunition, over a dozen firearms, and equipment and materials to construct a crude fertilizer bomb. With over 500 people injured and 58 victims perished, the outcome was bad enough but the numbers don't even begin to describe how bad this could have been if things had gone slightly differently. With 20,000 people attending the concert, a bomb would have easily tripled the casualties and deaths.
4. Firearms Regulation is Needed: The late Justice Scalia never took regulation of firearms off the table, contrary to what many people believe. Yet, we have the NRA telling us that the right to own firearms is without question and the ACLU demands that the gun rights of the mentally ill are restored once their illness is under control. They offer abstract arguments that remove context and reality, as though their narrow interpretation of the 2nd Amendment is sacrosanct and correct. They're wrong and they're responsible for the loosening of gun laws which have allowed for the steady increase in mass-murder events. NRA money is blood money.
5. Yes, We Have to Talk About it Now: We have to talk about it now; we can't keep having Sandy Hooks, Pulse Nightclubs, and Las Vegas concerts, where innocent people are dying because we refuse to address firearms regulation. There is no 'good time' to discuss this; we do this now because it must be addressed sooner than later. Wouldn't you want to discuss this before your family member dies from a gunshot?

5 Thoughts on Week 5 of PAC-12 Football

1. McCaffrey Who?: The really good teams -- like Alabama -- reload, such that you don't miss the last group of guys. Stanford's not quite up to being at the very top level of competition, but Bryce Love has proven that he's just as capable as Christian McCaffrey. This season, Love is on track to blow past McCaffrey's best rushing season (2015), assuming he keeps up his current pace.
2. Keller Chryst: I mentioned before the season started that Keller Chryst might not be ready to return. He was injured early in the UCLA game, and K.J. Costello appears to have permanently replaced him, having finished the UCLA game with two touchdowns and starting against ASU. I think his career might already be headed in a downward track, despite the promise of his talent.
3. Oregon Passes Test, But...: Beating Cal at home wasn't a gimme; it was a game they had to win in order to ensure a path to a bowl game. If they'd lost to Cal, they'd be sitting at the bottom of the middle tier in the PAC-12. But, their best quarterback has apparently broken his collarbone, meaning, he's going to be out for the rest of the season. It gets a lot harder to win another game in the next 5 weeks. Don't be surprised if they end up 4-6 or 5-5 by the time they reach their bye week.
4. Best Coach in PAC-12:  Chris Petersen is, hands down, the best coach in the PAC-12 at this point. When Sark left for USC, he explicitly did so because he felt that he could achieve greater success with the amount of talent at USC and with the ability to recruit better talent at USC. It turns out, Petersen was able to succeed above and beyond USC's abilities with lesser recruiting opportunities, embarrassing Sark two years ago. 2017 was supposed to be USC's year, but from where we stand right now, everything points to UW returning to the national championship playoffs. The big ball of irony, of course, is that USC selected Sark over Petersen. Of course, if at the end of the season USC and UW meet at the PAC-12 championship game and USC wins, it's fair to say that Helton is the top coach.
5. USC's Bright Spots: Despite all of the doom and gloom, USC has a handful of bright spots on the team. Uchenna Nwosu, without a doubt, is the team's MVP. Jack Jones has made dramatic improvements with each game and appears to be headed towards becoming a lockdown corner. Chase McGrath has gone from walk-on placekicker to game-winning hero and Mr. Reliability. Reid Budrovich, another walk-on player, has punted his way into the starting spot, averaging 45.6 yards per punt with long punts of 56, 59 and 63. There are a few other players who've surprised this season and will soon become bright spots, too, including Marlon Tuipulotu, Tyler Vaughns, Christian Rector, and Stephen Carr.