Saturday, January 24, 2009

Divergence of economies?

December 2008 Unemployment Rates (change from prev month):
  • Arizona - 6.9% (+.06)
  • Washington - 7.1% (+0.8)
  • Oregon - 9.0% (+1.0)
  • California - 9.3%  (+0.9)
Regionally:
  • Phoenix - 6.3% (+0.6)
  • Seattle - 6.2% (+0.8)
  • Portland - 7.2% (+0.9)
  • Los Angeles - 9.9% (+1.0)
S&P's Price Index Change (Oct 2007 / Oct 2008):
  • Phoenix - (-)45.3%
  • Seattle - (-)11.4%
  • Portland - (-)11.2%
  • Los Angeles - (-)38.7%
RealtyTrac's 2008 Foreclosure Rate by State:
  • Arizona - 4.49% (3rd highest)
  • Washington - 0.97% (25th highest)
  • Oregon - 1.13% (21st highest)
  • California - 3.97% (4th highest)
RealtyTrac's 2008 Foreclosure Rate by Metropolitan Area:
  • Phoenix - 6.02% (5th highest)
  • Seattle - 0.86% (84th highest)
  • Portland - 1.22% (65th highest)
  • Los Angeles - 2.89% (26th highest)
Tax Foundation's 2008 Local-State Tax Rate:
  • Arizona - 8.5% (41st highest)
  • Washington - 8.9% (35th highest)
  • Oregon - 9.4% (26th highest)
  • California - 10.5% (6th highest)
The economy is decelerating much faster in Oregon and California than in Arizona and Washington.

And from the numbers, I don't see the relationship between foreclosure rates and unemployment rates, which leads me to wonder what is really controlling the rapid declination of jobs in Oregon and California?  High taxes?

It may very well be the case, that high tax rates encourage a faster decline, but it would require a much more in-depth study to verify this link, by reviewing the tax rates year by year, alongside the annual unemployment rate AND the employment rate.


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