What Do Republicans Do Now?

Let's face it, Donald is in deep trouble. The Republican Party is in deep trouble. What Donald said about women was so disgusting that the trajectory of the race has fundamentally changed.

So what do Republicans and Donald do now?

Kicking Donald Off the Ballot

There is widespread rumbling that Donald should quit. It's not so easy as simply calling it quits. The GOP have rules allowing for a replacement in cases of death or declination, but to go there they'd need Donald to either die or willingly quit, then meet to pick a replacement, then go to court in all 50 states to press their case to stop early voting and change the names on ballots.

They'd still lose the race but at least they would have saved face. Nonetheless, that's too much work in too little time. Did I mention that he'd have to voluntarily quit? Oh, and this would only exacerbate the GOP civil war as Ted Cruz, John Kasich and Marco Rubio would all press the GOP elite to put their name on the ballot. Least likely option.

Apologize Uncategorically and Unconditionally

So far, we've had two apologies and, unsurprisingly, both were categorical and conditional, served up with a heaping of informal fallacies.

The right way to apologize is to strictly admit, roughly, "I have a character flaw and as a result, I have hurt a lot of people. I am sorry. Now that I have no choice but to face my flaw, I must fix it. It is strictly my fault and mine, alone, but I need help in fixing my flaw." If he had an authentic life-changing moment, there wouldn't be a single Evangelical / born-again Christian who couldn't relate. Even some Catholics could accept and forgive an honest reflection of conscience and admission of guilty.

The only problem is, he needs to break through his ego in order to make this proper apology, and that ain't happening anytime soon. I look at Mitt Romney and I see a man who understood what it meant to be a moral person. I look at John McCain and see the same thing. I look at Donald and there's no way. The second problem is, this only preserves his current support at best, as opposed to building enough support to win. It also has negative consequences down ballot as each candidate will be Willie Horton'd and Donald will become persona non grata with the rest of the GOP. Second most likely option.

Doubling Down / Taking Their Lumps

I call this the Wikileaks plan. Within an hour of the video's release, Wikileaks rushed out their own release of John Podesta's stolen emails, then going on a tweetstorm for the next 7 hours attempting to paint Hillary in a bad light. Similarly, Breitbart has chosen to focus on Hillary's and Bill's role (there is none) in Donald's actions.

This stuff works well for his most committed supporters, but that base of support always had a floor of roughly 34% of the entire population. Doubling down means that he'll not just lose the election, but lose it in spectacular fashion. 

The GOP will take their lumps by cutting ties with Donald, and though there will be increased GOP infighting with lots of political theater, the alternative is a massive wave election resulting in super majorities in both chambers. I think this, or some sort of version of this, is the most likely scenario as it involves the fewest variables. Most likely option.

The Provisionary Candidate

This past week, the press has heaped praise if not pity on Mike Pence for the job he did at the VP debate. In contrast to Donald, Pence's beliefs are strictly in-line with Republican conservatism. The GOP could force Donald into a written contract guaranteeing that Donald would quit within an hour of being inaugurated into office, were he to win.

That would achieve two things: Placing a true conservative, Pence, in the White House and sending Donald off with the only thing he ever cared about, which is seeing his name in US history books as the 45th POTUS.

On the surface, there is nothing illegal about this tactic even if it flies in the face of the US Constitution's intent. Yet, it is complicated and requires careful consideration and execution. In other words, the GOP probably couldn't pull it off, they know it, and will discard the idea immediately. Third most likely option.

Why Bother?

Did I mention that I love politics?

If I was able to strategize it, people from both sides of the aisle were able to come up with the same ideas. It's just a thought exercise that allows me to have fun and compare the outcome over the next few days with what I've written. Right now, both sides are pulling all-nighters coming up with their options, as they must have a plan in place ahead of Sunday night's town hall debate.