5 Thoughts for February 7, 2016

1. New Hampshire Democratic Primary: It is assumed that Bernie Sanders will win the New Hampshire primary, with some folks projecting north of a 20-point margin as a result of some polling data. But what if the margin ends up in single digits? I happened to look at RCP's data while considering 538's odds and noticed that in New Hampshire, there were two tracker polls. The benefit of any given tracker poll is that you can discern a usable direction in the data as they're using the same methodology; add two trackers and the direction is reinforced. You can do the same thing with any given poll, but your direction is generalized over a longer period of time. In New Hampshire, the two trackers -- ARG and UMass -- seem to show that Bernie Sanders peaked one week ago. The only thing that seems linked to this is the Iowa caucus. Bernie got a bounce, but it has since deflated. Don't be surprised if Bernie wins by just a single-digit margin.
   
   
2. Binge Off: If you're like me, you don't stream a lot of video on your phone, so T-Mobile's Binge-On program is completely unnecessary. Here's how to turn it off: Using your phone's dialer, call #263#. I don't know if the program will survive a net-neutrality test before the FCC, but I do know that were I to binge watch on my phone, it would be dead after just a couple of hours.
3. Besaws: Last weekend I walked the dog to New Seasons at NW 21st / Quimby to grab some coffee and a croissant (shared the croissant) at night and saw that the building in front of it now housed Besaws, which had been previously kicked out of its old digs at NW 23rd and Savier. They're in a brand new building, but the interior was designed to look like it's been there for decades. Definitely need to visit.
4. 3D Prints: I just got back my latest batch of 3D prints, and it's mostly good. The bad part of the prints seems to me to be an issue of quality control. My ceramic pieces were overglazed, such that you can see the pooling of fired glaze at the bottom which made top part incompatible with the lower part (does not fit inside one another). Immediately, I modified the 3D model to accommodate for pooling of glaze, but were the sprayer of the glaze more careful, I would not have to accommodate for a very bad glaze job. In other words, I've glazed my own ceramics and have never had such an acute problem of over-glazing. I'll post a separate, in-depth entry on the prints, later.
5. Portland's Homeless: KGW reported that the McCormick Condo Association closed access to the greenway -- a public right of way -- as a result of the homeless situation under the Steel Bridge. I happened to ride my bike right through the homeless settlement two weeks ago, and it was much worse than what KGW's news report showed. In their video, you might think there a handful of homeless people; when I rode my bike, it was easily 40+ people with well over a dozen large tents. Closing off the greenway was probably as much about security as it was about these homeless people using access to the Willamette River as a toilet. Yes, I have personally seen homeless people defecate under various bridge / freeway areas, pee on trees, and pee on building facades. The Mayor then demanded that the condo association open up the greenway. Last week the Mayor doubled down and placed a homeless storage locker at this exact spot. This does not end well. How do I know? Because between the Steel and Broadway bridges there are currently five encampments. This will only further incentivize the growth of homeless encampments in this geographical area.