5 Thoughts for January 12, 2016

1. Ad Malware: Ha! Forbes recently moved to block visitors who'd had their ad-blockers turned on, and I refused to oblige out of belief that websites should ask, not demand, that people turn off their ad-blockers. It turns out that this was the right choice as Forbes ended up serving advertising malware, even possibly the sort that did not require you to click on an ad in order to infect your computer. Ha!
2. Cheap Oil: West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures for middle of February, is currently sitting at roughly $31. If gasoline isn't below $2 a gallon by the start of March, something fishy is going on. I want to remind people, when gasoline hits sub-$2 levels, this is the time when you'll want to get that hybrid vehicle, as dealers will want to get rid of excess inventory, in order to fill up their lots with SUVs. This low price coincides with the lowest-driving months (January / February), so timing matters.
3. CFP Championship Game: A great game that was close throughout, right up until the Crimson Tide recovered a surprise on-side kick early in the 4th quarter, following a game-tying field goal. That fourth quarter was crazy, with the two teams combining for nearly half of all the scoring in the entire game -- 40 out of the combined 85 points. I guess this means that Lane Kiffin's redemption is halfway complete; if he wins the next game -- next fall's opener against USC -- his redemption will be complete.
4. Bernie's Problems: Bernie's got three problems. First, by an overwhelming majority, his greatest support comes from young adults -- those who are least reliable when it comes to voting. Second, Bernie has very little support from African-Americans, and his competitiveness with Hillary comes solely from White America -- a reminder that the Democratic Party isn't a majority White party. Third, the only political demographic (between Democrats, Republicans and Independents) to support Bernie with a majority, are Independents -- in many states they're not allowed to participate in primary votes of other parties.
5. Hillary's Problems: Hillary's got one just one problem: Ambivalent backers. If you look at general election match-ups, Bernie now outperforms Hillary against every GOP candidate. This tends to mean that while Hillary's backers have no problems supporting Bernie in a general election, Bernie's supporters are willing to sit out the election and allow a Republican to win the White House. This ambivalence means that if Bernie gains momentum early, Hillary's ambivalent backers may switch horses to build on that momentum.