Monday, October 12, 2015

The way-too-early, top-5 USC coaching candidate list.

In 2001 I was thrilled that Pete Carroll landed the job at USC, despite all of the complaints. In 2009 and again in 2013 I pleaded for little-known Gus Malzahn to take over for Pete Carroll. Both guys have shown to be solid winners, but for whatever reason, most everyone else simply overlooked them at the time.

Sure, it's unlikely that anyone of influence will bother reading this post, but I thought I should put out a top-five, way-too-early list of potential candidates for the USC Trojans head coaching job, just in case.

In no particular order:
  1. Clay Helton -- In his sole game as interim HC in the 2013 Las Vegas Bowl, the Trojans looked potent on offense and solid on defense. If this were December 2014, I would have said that, aside from keeping Ed Orgeron as head coach, Helton plus Clancy Pendergast made for the best possible outcome. Fast-forward to 2015 and Pendergast is still out of a job while Helton is now auditioning for a permanent HC job at USC, which means that we could still see this combo (Helton + Pendergast) come to fruition.
  2. Bruce Barnum -- Did you know that Barnum's Portland State Vikings beat WSU, who beat Oregon, who has just two wins against FBS opponents -- the same number of wins against FBS opponents as Portland State, an FCS team, has? This is the first time since 2007 that an FCS team has had two wins against FBS opponents in a season, and at 4-1 the Vikings have excited the alumni and distracted many from the woes of Oregon Ducks. Here's a cool little tidbit: Vikings OC, Steve Morton, was an assistant coach at USC for a couple of years. This weekend at Providence Park, Bruce Barnum will have a huge opportunity to show that he's legit, when Montana State visits. It seems obvious that PSU will lose Barnum sooner or later, and while he's a very long shot at one of the top coaching jobs (or rather, most stressful) in college, I think he's shown to be a very solid coach so far.
  3. Chip Kelly -- From the start, Chip has run into problems getting NFL players on board with his scheme in Philadelphia, but without a doubt he was solid gold in Eugene. What stopped Chip from getting a national championship at Oregon -- talent -- is something he'll never have to worry about in Los Angeles. Plus, between then and now, USC's facilities have been upgraded to outshine that in Eugene -- ask JJ Watts why he spent his summer at USC. Of course, the only way this happens, is if the Eagles have a bad season and fire CK, given CK's $6.5~7M annual salary.
  4. Tom Herman -- Houston Cougars are 5-0 under Herman, but more than that, everyone is impressed with how he handled the constant changing of quarterbacks at Ohio State last year, due to injuries, on their way to a national championship. Furthermore, in the wake of Herman's departure, Ohio State's total offense has dropped from 9th nationally to 26th, while Houston's has jumped from 55th nationally last year to 6th this year. That's amazing proof that he's a solid coach, at least on offense.
  5. Dan Quinn -- At 5-0 with the Atlanta Falcons in his first year as a head coach, it appears that he's tremendously undervalued at $3.5M a year, setting up for a pay raise one way or another. At Seattle his defenses were legendary, as in strongest since Da Bears' storied 1985 squad. Already, the Falcons have gone from 32nd (dead last) in total defense to 21st, and from 8th in total offense to 2nd. He has all the hallmarks of a great coach, and one that USC can immediately afford to buy out. Plus, a link to Pete Carroll.
Of course no one knows whether these coaches will continue down the path they're currently on, but right now they're the brightest options for USC, in my view. And no matter who takes the reins in 2016, it seems that Justin Wilcox will be out of a job, as not only was he Sark's guy, but his defenses have underwhelmed despite overwhelming talent. If I were to guess, Oregon would probably cut Pellum and bring Wilcox home (a Duck returns to his flock).

Update: An Afterthought

I've been reading other sites with their suggestions, and so let me explain why they're misguided.

Those former USC players who are coaches in the NFL -- Jack Del Rio and Jeff Fisher -- have not shown to be guaranteed winners, so the only reason why these names have been mentioned is their tie to USC, which is an awfully terrible reason to pick them.

Assistant coaches in the NFL, with ties to Pete Carroll -- Kris Richard and Ken Norton Sr. -- who haven't held a head coaching position, have nothing yet to show for themselves, so the only reason, again, why their names have been mentioned, is their tie to USC, and again, is an awful reason to pick them.

Big name coaches who've already shown success at big time programs -- Nick Saban, Brian Kelly, Kevin Sumlin and Urban Meyer -- would no doubt succeed wherever they go, but to pull them away you'd have to put down well over $7M a year just to convince them to switch from one big program to another. Of course, that's assuming their current schools don't counter with a big pay raise, in which case USC would probably have to offer $8M a year and a long-term contract. That's just not going to happen.

The decision facing USC now, is not any different than what it was in the last 30 years. Success is required, it must be immediate, and most of all, you need to find someone who's interested in the job. Look around and the coaches who've so far shown an ability to bring immediate success to their respective programs is extremely rare, and that's where my list of top-5 candidates comes from; whether or not these coaches are interested in the USC job is a separate issue, but this is where you start your search from.

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