5 Thoughts for December 31, 2015

1. USC Football: That final USC play in the Holiday Bowl perfectly encapsulates USC football and Cody Kessler this season. You've got 7 seconds left in the game and it's fourth and 10, so you throw the ball wide to a receiver who ran the route short of the 1st down. Last year it was a defense that would lose games on last second throws. This year it was a team that often didn't know what it's supposed to be doing. Signs: Leaving receivers uncovered on defense; allowing defensive players to come untouched through the line and straight to the quarterback; throwing short of the 1st down, on 4th down; dead ball personal fouls.
2. Northern Lights: No, there will not be northern lights in Portland tonight or tomorrow, contrary to what some folks in the news media have been saying. How do I know this? Because I've looked at the Aurora Forecast Center at the University of Alaska-Fairbanks' website and it clearly shows that the northern lights won't be visible in Portland.
3. Metromile: I got a year-end email statement, telling me that I drove 1,370 miles this past year. Yep, I fill up my gas tank about 6x a year. They also have a blog post about some other stats they've gathered from customers. Apparently Metromile users in Portland Oregon, average 4,940 miles this past year. It's been over a decade since I last averaged that much.
4. Sling TV: Ironically, I've stopped trying to use SlingTV via Chromecast, to watch football games on the big TV, and have instead used my SlingTV account to sign into ESPN WatchNOW, and cast that Chrome tab to the TV. Flawless. Ironic, but flawless.
5. New Year Resolutions: Next year, I am resolved to get done what I said I would do, last year, which was the same thing I had previously resolved to do the year before -- obviously I don't believe in New Years resolutions. Since I was in elementary school, I'd write them down at school, then promptly ignore them. I am comfortable with who I am, and have basically ignored what other people think of me, since I was 3 feet tall. Really.

5 Thoughts for December 29, 2015

1. Bill Clinton: I don't think too many people have realized quite yet, the inherent message behind Donald Trump's attacks on Bill Clinton, the minute after Hillary's team announced that Bill would be joining the campaign in the new year. Up to now, we've seen two conditions where Donald would attack: First condition was when he was directly attacked; second condition was when he'd fallen behind someone else. His attacks on Bill represent a third condition -- the fear of someone else taking over the campaign. This third condition reveals to us that Donald believes Bill to be the true Alpha Male threat, and has thus taken the threat on, before it has materialized. This represents a new method to defeat Donald: Mock Donald as the weak imitation of Bill.
2. Affluenza: Schadenfreude.
3. Seattle Seahawks: The Rams have always performed well against the Seahawks, even in losses. This time around, I can confidently say that the Seahawks defeated the Seahawks. The team was error-prone in all phases of the game, from just about every player, but especially from the backups. The team had 10 accepted penalties and three turnovers, not including the recovered fumbles from bad snaps. Even with the poor officiating -- a fumble that was advanced 7 yards! -- the Seahawks lost this one on their own.
4. Netflix: Latest binge, Season 2 of Helix. Season 1 was marginally acceptable (3 stars), but Season 2 is much better (4 stars) with the plot and character development. Next up will be Marco Polo: 100 Eyes, probably following up with Making a Murderer.
5. College Recruiting: Fans are too much, sometimes, when they start criticizing players for their choices, or their parents for influencing their children. This epic parent totally pwned some fans, recently. I think it's good to cheer your school on, but to criticize kids and their parents is entirely wrong, and sometimes it comes back to bite you.

Belatedly, Merry Christmas!

I was busy on Christmas, and didn't have time to post this sooner.

10 Best Christmas Song Recordings / 5 Best Christmas Albums

On the eve of Christmas, while there are gazillions of recordings of several dozen Christmas songs, here is a list of my top 10 best Christmas song recordings, as influenced by my roots:

1. White Christmas, sung by Bing Crosby -- There is no better Christmas song, sung any better than Bing Crosby, ever.
2.  Merry Christmas Darling, original composition and song by Karen Carpenter -- The classic Christmas ballad that everyone fell in love with, in the 80s.
3.  Christmas Time is Here, original sound recording from A Charlie Brown Christmas
4.  Mele Kalikimaka, sung and performed by Cyril Pahinui -- Most people would have Bing Crosby here with his iconic rendition of this song, but Pahinui's slack key guitar is perfect.
5.  Sleigh Ride, Leroy Anderson orchestration, performed by Boston Pops Orchestra, directed by John Williams -- Leroy Anderson's orchestration is the only one worth listening to, and John Williams has always kept this song moving at the right speed -- not too fast, not too slow -- with the bright brass of the Boston Pops.
6.  Silver Bells, sung by Bing Crosby and Carol Richards -- The absolute best crooner in history makes this recording a must-have; this recording makes you melt away.
7.  Carol of the Bells, performed and sung by the Mormon Tabernacle
8.  Do you hear what I hear?, instrumental performed by Keola Beamer
9.  The Christmas Song, sung by Nat King Cole -- He's the second-best crooner behind Bing Crosby, and his version rises above all, including Mel Torme's, although old Mel Torme is much better than young Mel Torme.
10. Merriest Hawaiian Christmas, sung by the Honolulu Boys Choir

These five albums are what I would call essential in any collection, but especially in mine:

1. Christmas Portrait, by The Carpenters (listen / buy)
2. A Charlie Brown Christmas (listen / buy)
3. White Christmas, by Bing Crosby (listen / buy)
4. Ki ho'alu Chrismas (listen / buy)
5. A Canadian Brass Christmas (listen / buy)

5 Photos from the previous week.

I was walking with the dog with coffee in hand, in the Pearl, between showers yesterday, at The Fields park, when I saw this view present itself. I'm sure people wondered what was so special about it, and what sort of nut would spend five minutes trying to get this image from a phone, just right.

On a break between rain, a puddle looks like a lake.

Last Friday, I was treated to a meal at Taylor Railworks. It was early enough to avoid the rush of diners, and the food was great. I would call it a blend of SE Asian, Italian and American cuisines. The Noodles alla Johnny was a bit salty; the Fried Chicken dish's flavors reminded me of Chinese Crispy Duck.

Taylor Railworks, Braised pork with grilled long green beans and sesame cracker

Taylor Railworks, Fried chicken, steamed clams, chilies and herbs

Taylor Railworks, Noodles alla Johnny, spicy crab, prawn and tomato

Taylor Railworks, Octopus ranchero, spicy tomato, arancini

How to Destroy Donald Trump

It amazes me, how terrible the analysis of Donald Trump's candidacy has been. In July, immediately following his tongue-lashing of John McCain's hero status as a POW, I wrote that Donald's popularity would survive this; I offered a strenuous explanation as to why these apparent foot-in-mouth incidents would not affect him, elsewhere on the internet. I even explained why he'd won the debates and why his numbers would rise.

Pundits, dumbfounded by Donald's lasting power in the polls, have apparently thrown their hands up in the air and decided to label him Teflon Trump. As if!

I previously wrote that I would offer a full write up on the various strategies one might use to destroy Donald Trump's candidacy, but in this season of giving, I'm offering this one strategy that might be called the nuclear option. Later in the spring, if Donald remains on top of the polls and no one has employed the nuclear option, I'll write up the additional strategies that one can use to stop Donald in his tracks.

The Plan

Rule #1: Indirect attacks are counterproductive.

By "indirect", I'm referring to situations where you're not face to face with Donald. Don't be a fool. If you aren't face to face, attacking Donald Trump inadvertently gives Donald the advantage of having the luxury to respond under his terms. Months after scorching indirect attacks, and the candidates (and media) haven't yet figured this out. These attacks ironically contribute to his popularity, which is why they must stop.

Face to face, push him over the edge.

In the next debate, attack him relentlessly. I mean, go all out warfare on him, attacking him relentlessly by mocking him and dismissing his opinion, face to face. The more candidates participating in the attack, the more effective it is.

When he attacks you, don't respond with a defense; you attack back. A defense implies that you need to defend yourself, because you have weaknesses to explain. Instead, you lay into him about how thin-skinned he is, etc. Mock him on how his ego is a WMD that might explode any second. Tease him about how his mouth is a garbage truck in reverse. Taunt him about how his business acumen isn't worth the paper it was printed on. Tell him how you had to look away as he was french-kissing Putin in their love-fest. Ask him if he's already proposed to Vladimir, and if they're planning a summer wedding in Soche.

Remember, you're insulting Donald, not offering critique on his ideas. Once you get into critiquing his ideas, you've lost the game. You want to go ballistic ad hominem on Donald.

Watch him lose it.

In the last debate, some of the other candidates came close to pushing him over the edge, but for some reason they stopped. By stopping, they made it worse; by stopping, they made it appear that Donald had won the confrontation, while also allowing him to regain composure.

You have to understand, if you want to take down the bully, you can't look as though you're falling in line under the alpha. These little attacks came off as minor complaints; literally, the other candidates signaled that Donald was their leader.

Follow through and finish it.

To finish him off, you need to see his face glowing red, ready to fight with his fists, upon which you do a 180 and completely ignore him. Don't mention his name or obtusely reference him. You've won the fight. By ignoring him, he'll continue with his attacks, but you need to refuse to acknowledge that he's even on the stage with you. When he mentions your name, you interject with the moderator, that you heard your name mentioned, but in your response, you never speak to what Donald said; instead, you take it to a parallel subject.

If you manage to stick to this, the national media will follow, every last one of them, left, right, and indifferent.

Factcheck is misleading on Social Security.

According to Factcheck, Bernie Sanders is wrong when he claimed that Social Security did not contribute to the deficit. They point to SS being off-budget, without actually understanding how SS works.

“Politicians decided to classify Social Security and the postal service as ‘off budget’ so that they would be treated as their own programs and not as part of the government,” Goldwein says. “It didn’t work. Everyone uses the unified budget deficit concept.”

Technically, the only people I've seen use the unified budget deficit is the CBO and the politicians who make a big deal about deficit spending for all the wrong reasons. What this signals, however, is that this issue is a point of semantics, only.

But what's misleading about this, is that it implies to many people that SS contributes to the federal debt; it doesn't, except for the margin of the borrowing costs to the federal gov't.

As I've written many times before, the SS Trust Fund buys special (non-marketable) Treasury bonds -- bonds which are used to pay for the federal debt. If I buy a Treasury bond, am I adding to the debt? Only on the margin of the borrowing cost, right? Mind you, that margin remains close to historical lows. For a bond to count as adding to the debt in the way people imply, it would thus be counted twice.

To highlight Factcheck's misunderstanding, they conflated federal spending with SSTF spending.

For years, Social Security was a boon to the government’s bottom line, lowering the deficit and even causing a budget surplus in 1998 and 2001. But now outlays outpace revenues, and the government has to use deficit spending to honor its obligations to the program.

That's extremely misleading. Of course the Trust Fund lost its primary surplus; it's been this way for a few years now, with baby boomers retiring in droves and Americans living much longer than anticipated. But again, because the Trust Fund invests into Treasury bonds, the federal government is not using deficit spending to honor the Trust Fund's obligations, except on the margin of borrowing costs, as it rolls debt over.

If you pore through their lengthy writeup, they know that only an Act of Congress can conflate general budget with the Trust Fund's. In practical terms, this means that Congress could always make contributions to the Trust Fund to pay for the shortfall (between revenue and outlays). Now pay attention here, because this is the aha! moment: When Congress does make a contribution to the Trust Fund, it will increase the federal debt, but not before. Aha!

I don't often write long form these days, but I had to call out Factcheck's deception, because they've only further entrenched falsehoods with the American public and media.

Torch cutting at night on the Fremont Bridge.

I happened to be walking the dog when I saw sparks cascading down from the top section of the 405 Fremont Bridge tonight. It was too cool to pass up, so I walked up a few blocks to check it out.

3D prints

Last week, I got my 3D prints back from Shapeways, and I just finished a blog post about them, on my other, design-focused, blog. Here's a couple of images of the finished prints. No, they're not for sale just yet. They will be, next year, at which time I'll take much better photos. :D

By the way, there are several projects I'm working on besides this, including some furniture with mixed 3D printed parts and laser-cut sections, as well as tons of graphic projects, as always.

5 Thoughts for December 13, 2015

1. 3D Printing: I got my shipment from Shapeways, and everything came out spectacular...well, except one tiny issue over dimensional stability. I got too cute and tried a very small (i.e. under 1 mm) detail on two pieces that were meant to fit within each other, but the heat apparently deformed one piece, such that it would not allow for the other piece to slide in. I just need to take a file and take a little off the other piece, and it should fit. I'll make a separate post on it.
2. Fallout Shelter: The last time I wrote about this subject, I had trashed my last vault after hitting the 200-occupant limit; of course a week earlier I had set up a new vault, initially just as a means to demonstrate to some folks on how to start the game. I've been keeping this current vault well below the 200-occupant limit while strengthening it to the max. Today, Bethesda Softworks released a major update which introduces pets, a Christmas theme, and some new tools and objectives for people who've already hit the 200-occupant ceiling and are well-experienced in vault building. I think I mentioned this before, but I'm certain that I know why they have a 200-occupant limit: The higher the number of occupants, the more taxing it is for your mobile device; if you think about it, 200 occupants with a weapon, clothing, levels of experience and levels of SPECIAL attributes, rads and stimpak levels, and now pets, means that your device is keeping tabs on 2800+ variables, simultaneously, not including various vault and room level variables.
3. Conservative Bias: Perhaps you hadn't noticed, that when there is a mass-shooting event, there are calls by conservatives to not publish the images and names of the perpetrators, so as to not grant these people the infamy they were searching for. They are terrorists, by the very definition of the word. However when a Muslim is involved in a mass-shooting event, these same conservatives rush to get out the names and photos of these perps. Are they not one and the same?
4. Provincial fashion: I passed a mixed-use townhome being used as a commercial space, last night. They appeared to be software developers, all tapping away around a conference table. What struck me about the group, was their clothing. Of the 8 seated, 7 were all wearing flannel shirts or wool sweaters, and a beanie hat. Indoors and wearing beanies...it must be Portland.
5. Seattle Seahawks: With a blowout win at the Baltimore Ravens it's clear now, the Seahawks are surging on all sides of the ball. Before Thomas Rawls sprained his ankle and left in the 1st quarter, he was gashing the Ravens for over 7 yards a rush, and looked good. With Rawls out, Russell Wilson was explosive in the air and the offensive line performed fabulously, allowing Wilson to stand in the pocket for nearly 5 seconds, to throw a touchdown to Tyler Lockett. The clear difference on the offensive side has been the replacement of Drew Nowak at center, with Patrick Lewis. With Patrick Lewis at center, the Seahawks have scored 30+ points on offense in three of five games. In the last four games, they've been lights out on 3rd down efficiency at 61.5%, blowing away the entire NFL by 12 percentage points. OC Darrell Bevell has definitely earned job security, with the offense going red-hot, hotter than it has ever been, under Pete Carroll.

What powers Trump's staying...err...power?

Chuck Todd and others have come up with a list of six reasons why they believe Donald Trump has staying power.

Look, if you're going to throw everything at the wall and see what sticks, you're obviously not aware of what's going on. All of the reasons given, could have been applied to any of the other GOP candidates with a modicum of truth to it, but none of them explain what gives Trump his staying power.

I understand his staying power. I predicted it back in July, when everyone thought that his candidacy would sink over his comments about John McCain. I predicted that his numbers would dip, but then come right back. I even said that he could do this over and over again, recovering each time.

Ask yourself this simple question: Is speech consequential?

If it is, then speech may not be as unencumbered as is wont to be described as free. Trump's supporters fervently believe that speech is completely unencumbered as to be free from consequence, and Trump is the ticket to that right to inconsequential speech.

As a practical matter, Trump's supporters are against what they believe is politically-correct speech; whether or not they understand the meaning of being PC is irrelevant. In their eyes, it is a right to be politically incorrect. Trump even says so himself, but no one in the Commentariat believes him.

Now, as I said, whether or not they understand what PC means, is beside the point, because unlike someone like Bill Maher, to them politically incorrect speech does not require defense -- it is a completely unencumbered right to express any belief without consequences. Maher clearly understands that speech has value and therefore consequential, and defends what he says, rigorously, but many of Trump's supporters do not comprehend this; in that sense, many of Trump's supporters are poorly educated, and the polling data correlates to this.

If you distrust or disbelieve what I am telling you, through the next few weeks, apply my filter to every GOP candidate, and see what happens. Is the verbal scolding by Rubio or Cruz hurting Trump? Is another disgusting or questionably moral stand, hurting Trump? Is there a verbal outrage so disgusting that Trump cannot recover from?

Finally, there is a reason why this is happening primarily to the GOP and generally not to Democrats: The GOP have been stoking anger against what they term to be PC speech, for decades, going back to the days of Newt Gingrich. The final straw came with Mitt Romney's candidacy, whose loss is often seen under the belief that he continually attempted to navigate around PC issues by changing his opinions on them. To many GOP, Trump is fresh air, where a candidate expresses his opinions and sticks to them. Again, notwithstanding, the meaning of PC speech; obviously the 47% wasn't an issue of being PC or not, but of factual context.

No, I'm not writing a book, but there are still many issues to be expounded on this topic, including the rise of the Tea Party, and a full dissection of the conservative's indoctrination of America on the 1st Amendment. Maybe some other time?

5 Thoughts for December 8, 2015

1. Cardboard Camera: Google has a new (for now, only an) Android app, called Cardboard Camera, that allows you to take panoramic images that is converted into Google Cardboard 3D images. I've tried it, and it is absolutely incredible. I'm almost certain that these photos can be shared, in a roundabout way with others using the camera app, to view panoramas in 3D; the sample images in the app are located in the download folder of my phone and the photos I've taken are in the DCIM/CardboardCamera folder, and they all have a "filename.vr.jpg" naming system. This seems to imply that you merely need to send these files to a phone and place them in the correct folder, to open them up for viewing in the Cardboard Camera app. Exciting!
2. Accessory Dwelling Units: Portland's already got freer zoning rules covering ADUs than other jurisdictions, particularly Beaverton / Washington County, where you need to build an off-street parking area for any ADU -- I consider this a really dumb requirement. Now, Portland's city council has passed amendments that make it even easier to build ADUs, and within the traditional 5' buffer zone in the side / rear yards. Furthermore, you're allowed to build an ADU in R2.5, (2,500 sf lots) which should mean that you can build a detached office / in the rear yard of your townhouse. The problem is, the Oregon Tax Court needs to explicitly rule that Multnomah County has misapplied the tax laws to revalue entire properties where ADUs have been built, rather than just the additional value added by the ADU; not many people will find the doubling of their property taxes worth the cost, especially if you're building an ADU for a non-renter (granny, kids, etc.).
3. SlingTV: After a few weeks now, I have to say that the promise far exceeds what they actually deliver. The only good experience I've had, has been streaming to mobile devices. Attempting to use Chromecast has been a very rough experience. While streaming to my TV, for some unknown reason the stream will stop and buffer endlessly. I can still watch videos on my devices and my Chromecast easily streams from other means, but the SlingTV app just completely fails to stream. In fact, there are many problems with the app's operation, and updates are rare.
4. ACA / Obamacare: At the time that the ACA was ramping up, I used to rag on Forbes contributor Avik Roy with his shamelessly terrible logic and fact-challenged statements. Well, it looks like he's back at it again. Now, while I could write a 1000 word post, breaking down his false assertions, I'm just going to tackle the laughable and quite common error in the media: Roy conflates percentage point change with percent change, insisting that, "Obamacare has reduced the uninsured rate by only 2.7%". Well, no. The ACA has reduced the uninsured by 19.5% between 2008 and 2014, and is quite clear in the study's chart that he's referencing. Percentage point change is useful when comparing it to total market share, so for instance, it's a great way to track changes in market share of smart phone operating systems (e.g. iOS is up 1pp while Windows OS is down 1pp shows where the direction of the market is going.) So, Roy doesn't know what he's looking at, nor does he know what he's doing. You know what, I'm going to tackle another of Roy's false assertion, that the ACA hasn't slowed down spending. The study he's using, is exceedingly clear in its title, what's driving healthcare spending increases: "Faster Growth Driven By Coverage Expansion". It stands to reason that if you reduce the number of uninsured, those people will be spending money for insurance and thus, total healthcare spending will increase; it does not mean that this is driving up premiums faster than historical average, however, but this was his implication. Again, Roy is not very bright. BTW, he's advising the Rubio campaign.
5. El Nino: Apparently there are many localized floods as a result of the heavy rains, which in turn were probably caused by El Nino. A clue to El Nino: It was 58°F / 14.4°C at midnight. Second clue: The vapor imagery highlights the atmospheric river of the pineapple express, although the clouds don't actually extend all the way down to Hawaii. Being the contrarian, I enjoy a good soaking.

5 Thoughts for December 7, 2015 (all about football)

1. PAC-12 Championship: 461 all-purpose yards by Christian McCaffrey, means that McCaffrey just beat Barry Sanders' record for total all-purpose yards in a season. If he doesn't win the Heisman, something's wrong with the system. Those 461 all-purpose yards also happens to be more (offense + returns) yards than USC had in the game (453 yards). McCaffrey beat USC, period. Once he'd gotten past that first level of defense, he was pretty much gone.
2. USC Football: It's easy to point the finger at Justin Wilcox, especially when the 'jumbo package' on defense consisted of bigger linebackers instead of extra linemen (for reference, in 2013 Clancy Pendergast's base was two tackles and two ends, and his heavy package was three tackles and two ends). It's even easier to wag the finger at Justin Wilcox, when you realize that he was given a redo on his defensive scheme against Stanford, and did even worse. But Cody Kessler shares some fault for not trusting his receivers when covered on deep passes, willing to take the dump-off pass, instead. Likewise, Helton probably shouldn't have called Kessler to run into the flat for a throwback in their 2-point conversion attempt, right after Kessler ran into the end zone on the run-option; the guy was already lumbering around at about a 6-second 40 yard dash. All around, it was a very poor performance by the Trojans.
3. USC Football, part II: As expected, Clay Helton released several coaches, and none of them are surprises. The four coaches who lost their jobs are defensive coordinator Justin Wilcox, secondary coach Keith Heyward, defensive line coach Chris Wilson, and offensive line coach Bob Connelly. If you watched this past season, these coaches were in charge in areas of the game where USC struggled mightily, with either scheming, technique, or both. You're USC; you don't give up 461 all-purpose yards to any person, no matter how good they are, and you don't give up 6 passing touchdowns to any quarterback. If you're like me, you're surprised that Heyward was shocked that he lost his job, given that at the end of the Oregon game, he told the media that he had no idea what went wrong; if you don't know what went wrong, it seems unlikely that you'll be able to correct it.
4. Steve Sarkisian: Sark fired off a lawsuit to recover money from USC, after being fired less than two months ago. I understand the "why", but it seems that Sark just kicked himself out of the Trojan Family for life; the NCAA may have forced USC to drop Reggie Bush from the family, but the family never rejected Reggie Bush like it is primed to reject Sark. Reading the lawsuit, it seems to me that his lawyers are handing USC a separate for-cause reasoning for Sark's firing: By his lawyers' own retelling, USC's gig is a high-stress job where championships and wins are of the utmost importance, and Sark knew he was failing the job -- which he claims is the cause for his alcoholism; in essence, Sark knew he would be fired because he'd failed to produce wins (coming off the embarrassing loss to Washington). But here's the problem for Sark: How can he win a lawsuit claiming a disability, when he was the roadblock to his own recovery? More than that, how can his memory of the events be trusted, when he was drunk at the time that he showed up on campus? If he drove himself to the campus, drunk, it would be the nail in the coffin of his lawsuit and any remaining sympathy from all Trojans. 
5. Seattle Seahawks: Even though Jimmy Graham is a great player who gave the Seahawks an added dimension in the passing game, it seems very clear now that trading Max Unger for Graham was a bad decision. The experiment with Drew Nowak at center came to a close, and the offense has dramatically improved with far fewer sacks and much greater efficiency on 3rd downs. With Graham out for the season, Luke Willson proved to be more than an adequate replacement at tight end. When we look back at the season, you can already tell that the Seahawks got their 2015 draft and undrafted free agent picks spectacularly right: Tyler Lockett, Thomas Rawls (undrafted!), and Frank Clark are doing exceptionally well as rookies. The blowout game against Minnesota in Minneapolis is the sort of game that could scare the rest of the NFL -- was that the sign that Seattle's officially gotten its groove back?

5 Thoughts for December 2, 2015

1. PAC-12 Football: Is it just me, or are people way too focused on how Stanford can make it into the playoffs? Just because Stanford beat USC earlier this year does not mean that Stanford can beat USC again. That game against USC was the first time this season that Stanford had taken the training wheels off its offense, while anyone who watched USC play UCLA would know that there were some wholesale changes in the team's approach on both sides of the ball -- this isn't Sark's team.
2. Fed Rate: Remember back in the day when the Feds would raise their rate when inflation was starting to get too hot? These days, we're wondering if the economy is strong enough to raise rates. Need reference to the current rate of inflation? I would point to NAIRU. If inflation isn't accelerating even as job growth continues, why would you want to screw the pooch? Therein lies the problem: The Feds are asking the wrong question.
3. Bipartisanship: As I mentioned the other week, in response to the terrorist attacks in France, holding up the already lengthy and difficult refugee program makes no sense, as this program is the hardest means of sneaking into the US; in fact, what you'd want to do is hold greater scrutiny of the visa waiver program. Sure enough, in a rare show of bipartisanship, both sides are working with the White House to curb the visa waiver program. These things don't need to be politicized, but too frequently they are.
4. Syrian Refugees: Sticking with the topic of terrorism, Conservatives don't want to let Syrian refugees into the US, because of fears of terrorism. I can understand, of course, because here in the US, we have weak gun laws to prevent terrorists from purchasing guns legally, thanks to Conservative Libertarians. No really...people on the No Fly List can buy guns, and just last month the NRA blocked efforts to stop terrorists from buying guns. You see where I'm going with this, don't you? They created their own problem and refuse to take responsibility for it.
5. ACA: In keeping with the theme of a lack of accountability, Senate leaders have assured their colleagues that voting to repeal the ACA, would likely end with a veto by President Obama, thereby relieving them of the effects of millions of people losing healthcare insurance: "Senators were reminded that the president would veto the repeal bill anyway, meaning Republicans could vote on the measure without having to deal with the political risks of actually making major changes to existing law." Sad, right?

Why Clay Helton is the right choice.

I don't think this needs to be explained, but from reading online media and comments, apparently many people were hoping for a home run hire, more than anything else, which I find odd and far outside of reality of USC's past record and success.

Let's look at some past, successful coaches, shall we?

John McKay

After nine years as an assistant coach at his alma mater, Oregon, McKay was an assistant coach at USC for just one year before he was promoted to head coach. Is that a big hire? No. But he's a revered USC legend whose teams were ranked #1 at the end of the season, four times in 16 years.

John Robinson

Before becoming head coach at USC in 1976, he was a 12-year assistant at Oregon, a three-year offensive coordinator at USC, and spent one year as the running backs coach with the Oakland Raiders. As with McKay, he was never a head coach prior to getting the job at USC. In his 7 years, his teams finished once with a #1 rank, and twice as #2.

Pete Carroll

While Pete had four years as a head coach in the NFL prior to his hiring, most critics echoed the current complaints of Helton's hiring -- that he wasn't a home run hit. Watch 30 for 30, Trojan War, to get a sense about how the media and many people thought of Carroll's hire. From the start, I was excited about his hire, because I'd watched his defenses; when he hired Norm Chow, I was 100% in. So, even though his first year at USC looked like a dud, at 6-6, they were 4-2 on the back half of the season, including a blockbuster shutout of UCLA, 27-0, to end the season, and you could sense the change in attitude. The rest of history is well-known.

Clearly, USC's past success has not been predicated on hiring blockbuster, proven winners. This talk about getting a proven winner is mostly hubris -- the same sort of hubris that we've seen with the firing of Mark Richt at UGA, and the threat of firing of LSU's Les Miles. Today, people see the world through the lens of fantasy sports, where you can just pick winners and instantly win.

Clay Helton

So why is Clay Helton the right guy?

Go watch the UCLA game, then watch his post-game presser. It wasn't so much about winning the game, but it was the way they played the game, and Helton's demeanor throughout.

We saw the defense completely change it up, putting Su'a Cravens into the safety role, defending the inside / slot receiver, rather than as a linebacker lining up at the rush end. Seeing how intransigent Justin Wilcox had been the last two years with his defensive scheme, it doesn't seem to be a stretch to assume that this change occurred because of Helton's push.

We saw the offense determined to bully the Bruins with heavy doses of run, with Damien Mama pulling, Zach Banner bulldozing, and the fullbacks leading. Under Helton, the fullbacks climbed back from the purgatory that Sark sent them.

And of course, Helton has been nothing short of authentic, truthful, and clear about the direction of the team. When you hear him speak, he's fatherly but not paternalistic, confident but not cocky, and when he takes responsibility for the team's performance, you can see the results the following week. The guy's name is Clay -- you can't get any more grounded than that!

If what you wanted in the program was stability, Helton's attributes and actions are the sort of things you'd want to see established in the program. If you wanted a flashy hire to make everyone swoon, I think you've mistaken the history of USC for the history of Somewhere Else U.

5 Thoughts for November 30, 2015

1. Seattle Seahawks: The offense has apparently resolved its issues even as Jimmy Graham went down for the season. The offense scored its most points in a game, this season, with 39, which appears to be a reflection of Russell Wilson's growing confidence in his offensive line. Indeed, in the first 7 games this season, the Seahawks were giving up an average of 4.4 sacks per game, while the last 4 he's been sacked on average 1.5 times a game. The defense remains a huge question mark, as the spot opposite Richard Sherman still looks bad, regardless of who's assigned to it. So bad is the secondary, that Pittsburgh essentially gave up on the run -- 14 running plays compared to 59 passing plays -- and Ben threw for more yards against the Seahawks than any previous quarterback in the franchise's history.
2. Health Insurance: In the last month, Moda Health announced that it was in poor financial -- ahem -- health. Its finances were being dragged down by people who'd signed up for their services but who were sicker than expected, combined with a missed projection of federal financial support, as part of the ACA. As a result, they were significantly raising premiums. I believe this was a bad idea. Most of the time, you can get away with raising premiums, so long as they're relatively modest increases, but when they increase 25% or more, you've given people an incentive to shop around. In the end, Moda Health will only be further burdened by a deeper reliance on people who are sicker, and therefore more likely to drain their finances rather than fill them. I'm all but certain that OHSU will have to exercise their option to own a piece of Moda, and then eventually buy out Moda. Two years ago, Moda signed a 10-year, $40M contract for the naming rights of the Rose Garden; that OHSU made a 10-year $50M loan which was then converted into an option to own a portion of Moda, seems to highlight greater issues with Moda's management, no?
3. Health Insurance, part II: Once again, Republicans are looking to repeal the ACA, aka Obamacare, but this time they're using a December 11 government spending deadline, to do so. You see, straight up they can't pull it off, so they're gambling that an omnibus spending bill, that is required in order to keep government running, will be the leverage to repeal the ACA. That is to say, that they're of the mindset that President Obama would rather destroy the centerpiece of his legacy, than allow the government to close. That seems like an odd way of thinking, given how President Obama stood by his ACA during the debt ceiling fight that shut down government, a few years ago, yet this simplistic thinking appears pervasive in the GOP Congress.
4. Cyber Monday: There's a different kind of Cyber deals going on these days, and they're discounts for online services. Moo has a spectacular 30% deal (automatically applied price), Shapeways has a 20% off coupon (code: cyber2015), and Ponoko has 35% off laser cutting (code: E3RFAQ). These are much more valuable deals, to me.
5. USC football: Well, it turns out we didn't have to wait long to figure out who the next head coach would be. Monday, USC announced that Clay Helton would lose the interim title and become the *permanent* head coach. As much as a big name hire could have been the popular choice, you could see how settled Helton was, and how his confidence and inner peace had an effect on the team. I personally think that his fourth quarter decision to pound the ball on the ground against UCLA was what sealed the deal; watching USC thoroughly dominate on the ground in the 4th quarter, was nostalgic, to be sure. Will Helton keep Wilcox? Against UCLA, USC *finally* ditched the 3-4 and used a 4-3 with hybrid end, and moved Su'a Cravens back to safety, covering the bigger slot receiver -- it was vintage Pete Carroll. If Wilcox reverts to 3-4 and USC loses to Stanford, Wilcox will surely be fired; if he keeps the 4-3 hybrid, I think Helton might retain Wilcox.

5 Thoughts for November 29, 2015 (mostly about football)

1. Netflix: I finished watching the four available seasons of Hell on Wheels and moved on to Marco Polo, which was short enough to finish in roughly a day or so. I definitely love Marco Polo, in particular for its spectacular use of color and landscapes, the narrative, and the beautiful women. There is so much excellent content these days, it feels like a golden age of video.
2. Ageism: If you don't know what ageism is, please look it up, so that you can laugh at the next sentence. Earlier this week I got carded, and I thoroughly enjoyed it.
3. USC Football: Gee, if you hadn't watched the entire season, you would have thought that the USC team we saw on Saturday was surely headed to the playoffs, what with its great secondary man coverage and blitzing pressure, combined with solid special teams play, and an offense that willed its way to hold onto the ball in the fourth quarter for all but 1 minute and 15 seconds. I also couldn't believe that it was Su'a Cravens who looked like he was playing as a corner-safety, knocking the ball down and staying tight to his receiver -- he led the team with 3 passes defensed. Nor could I believe that the USC defense had ditched the 3-4 for parts of the game, opting to go straight up with two defensive ends and two defensive tackles. Someone (or people) must have really laid into the coaching staff after that Oregon debacle, huh?
4. USC Football, part II: It's not yet over for Clay Helton. He gets to do what few people ever get to do, and that is to prove to everyone that the USC team under his direction, would have done things differently against Stanford. If the team pulls off the incredible upset against Stanford at the PAC-12 Championship game next weekend, I think that could seal the deal for him and set the stage for the Clay Helton era. Of course, I'm still skeptical of the defensive side, particularly the secondary coach and the defensive coordinator; on the offensive line however, it's very clear that everyone four-deep can play -- the fourth center this season, and the offense didn't skip a beat. 
5. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors football: Hawaii decided to go with former Bows QB Nick Rolovich, as their new head coach, passing over former UH coach June Jones, one-time UH defensive coordinator Rich Ellerson, and former UH players Rich Miano and Brian Norwood. Obviously they wanted to hire someone who had previously been associated with the program, but that seems tragic, because it severely limits potential hires who could have had a much stronger resume. In particular, I don't see why they'd hire Rolovich. In four seasons as the Nevada Wolfpack's offensive coordinator, Nevada's offense has gotten progressively worse, averaging 515 ypg in 2012, 429 in 2013, 398 in 2014, and 378 this year. Maybe a switch will flip and suddenly he's a really good offensive coordinator head coach -- you get my point, don't you?

5 Thoughts for November 27, 2015

1. Activity Tracker Apps: Have you noticed the hundreds of apps out there, allowing you to track your activities, to ensure that you're on track to meet whatever goals you have? It's all part of the promise that, if only you had a way to track your status, you would be able to better keep up with your goals. The only problem of course, is that you have to be a goal-oriented person. If you didn't utilize a calendar book before the advent of smartphones and tracking apps, you're probably not going to be better at meeting goals with these new apps. You are who you are, and not who you think you ought to be.
2. Nexus 5X sale: As part of Black Friday, various outlets including Google Play Store, have the Nexus 5X discounted by $80. This brings it down to the same price as when the original Nexus 5 first came out, two years ago. Still, it's not enough to convince me to buy it. Using a charging system that is incompatible with Qualcomm's Quick Charge 2.0, means that the Nexus 5X requires special chargers to plug into an outlet, and they still don't have a charger for your vehicle.
3. Reverse Racism: I find it curious, that White Americans would argue that policies allowing Black student unions but disallowing White student unions, is reverse racism, and therefore bad. This argument in defense of White student unions makes no sense, because it statically treats the world in absolute values, it ignores the history of racism in America, and fails to acknowledge the current, ongoing, disproportionate economic and social treatment of minorities. Furthermore, we routinely afford special benefits to different groups of people, based on need: disabled, elderly, etc. Besides, no one seems to be able to answer a very simple question: What is the reason to create a White Union? The most ridiculous assertion I have seen, is that America's values are based on White Culture; apparently, the history of American culture stops in Northern Europe and only dates back 1000 years.
4. Xidi: On Amazon, there is a Chinese clothing brand, called Xidi. It means "washing", but the pronunciation should make you laugh: "shee dee". Say it out loud with the proper pronunciation: Amazon sells many Xidi products from China.
5. Trump: Do you understand why Donald Trump defies political common sense? If you do, then you would know that, by itself, there really is no controversy that could permanently sink his candidacy. Hence, despite the latest news that the Reuters/Ipsos rolling poll has Trump losing 12 points in less than a week, you should expect that this dip is temporary. Remember, four months ago I explained all this. Here's a hint to how to defeat him: Truth ≠ Opinion; Money ≠ Truth.

Happy Thanksgiving.

I'm thankful for dogs and the humor and companionship they provide.

5 Thoughts for November 25, 2015

1. USC Football: Is LSU going to get rid of Les Miles? What a curious thing, if USC hired Les Miles, and Les Miles brought Ed Orgeron with him, don't you think? Of course, Pat Haden would have to leave before Ed stepped back on campus; Ed is probably more popular with the alumni, than Pat is, right now. It would be nice to hear that gruff voice once again, especially since he doesn't make excuses or sound confused about what went wrong, after games, like the current defensive staff seems to do -- when someone tells you that they need to look at the tape to figure out what went wrong, it seems to me that the team will never be able to make successful adjustments during the game.
2. USC Football, part II: Six of the past seven years (including the current season), USC has lost at least 4 games in a season. This looks an awful lot like the nearly two decade stretch of Ted Tollner - Larry Smith - John Robinson - Paul Hackett - first year of Pete Carroll. The most successful season in the last 7, was, oddly enough, Lane Kiffin's second year. I just don't have a lot of confidence about the current team's ability to win another game, however, which would likely mean that it will finish as it did in Kiffin's 2012 season, at 7-6, and Clay Helton will definitely not be offered the head coaching job. It's not that this team is lacking in talent; it's that the coaching staff is severely deficient on the defensive side.
3. Donald Trump: A few days ago, Trump retweeted a misleading statistic that was tossed at me in an online comment section just over a month ago; of course, I responded back easily, but rather than simply cite the same information that media outlets have used to refute Trump, I actually spent some time to go back through the FBI's UCR data, to show what's actually happened the last two decades. Today, I retrieved it from my Drive and pulled up the chart that I had built. What you'll notice is that the gap between black-on-black and white-on-white crimes, has decreased over twenty years:
   
   
4. Netflix: After finishing Jessica Jones, I'm now binge-watching Hell on Wheels. I love Westerns, so this has been a very enjoyable show and it's got lots of twists and turns, with clear antagonists and a protagonist who is troubled and flawed, but knows it, and doesn't give a damn about it. I love it all; it's got Mormons (Brigham Young, no less), Irish Catholics, Blacks, Chinese, corrupted politicians, Native Americans, and Cowboys of course.
5. Race Issues in America: I truly find it amazing, that this issue has come up and become a very critical issue this year. For decades I've seen racism, and to this day I still see it. Whether it was the outright verbal insults or the subtle act of a vehicle stopped to ensure that I did not enter a condo's garage while its door was closing, or having to wait for service while others were tended to, I've seen and felt its ugly fangs. Does anyone actually think that Black Americans weren't being targeted and killed by police, until just recently? I hope not, because the real problem has always been the lack of attention the media has paid, to these cases. No, as far as I can tell, the only thing that has actually changed, is that now we have dashcams and smartphones with cameras, everywhere, to capture that which had all along been occurring. That people weren't being successfully prosecuted for murder, seems to highlight this problem of not having video of the incident to show to a jury. To many white folks, race issues have improved, but since they were never the targets of racial repression, subtle or overt, they couldn't possibly know the state of race issues in America; to pretend otherwise is paternalistic.

5 Thoughts for November 21, 2015 (mostly about football)

1. Netflix: Just one day after it was made available and I've finished streaming Jessica Jones. If you're a Doctor Who fan, David Tennant plays a role that will freak you out and confuse you. There is a precedent for this sort of character: Sylar from the TV show, Heroes. The show's writing seemingly follows the same flaw as OITNB, where the protagonist -- Jessica Jones -- is so deeply flawed and continues to make the same errors, that I have difficulty having empathy for Jones. But at the end, just as it seems like she's yet again failed herself and everyone around her, she shows that she hasn't repeated her errors.
2. USC Trojans defense: Every media pundit said Monte Kiffin was a brilliant defensive coordinator. His first year at USC, the defense allowed 400 ypg; his second year they gave up 375 ypg; his third and final year they averaged 394 ypg. Every media pundit said that Justin Wilcox was a bright, young defensive coordinator. His first year USC's defense allowed 407 ypg; after the Oregon game, the defense has now allowed an average of 403 ypg through 11 games this season. Meanwhile, his sole year between Monte and Justin, Clancy Pendergast's defense averaged 335 ypg. I'm tired of talking about how bad Wilcox's defenses are; I just wish sports pundits would quit gushing about Justin Wilcox.
3. Justin Wilcox: No really, people, stop talking about how brilliant he is as a defensive coordinator. In his first season at UW, they averaged 357 ypg; in his second season they got worse, averaging 389 ypg. In three games against Oregon, Wilcox's defenses have allowed 52 (2012), 45 (2013) and now 48 (2015) points. You know, maybe Oregon should hire Wilcox. Wilcox's 3-4 scheme was supposed to help the defense out with greater team speed, and yet the defense looked like it was always 5+ yards behind the play, if they were even near the play; so bad was Wilcox's defense, that it broke the record for most passing TDs allowed, ever, at USC. I'm not saying that USC should have beaten Oregon -- Oregon's a very good team, now that Vernon Adams is healthy -- but USC shouldn't be blown out this badly; had Oregon not taken the foot off the pedal, the score would have been 52 - 28.
4. Clay Helton: With that embarrassing loss in Eugene, many people think that Helton's chances of getting hired by the Trojans, has been diminished. Seeing how poorly the special teams performed yet again, and how slow the team started against Arizona, Colorado and Oregon, it just doesn't seem like his chances are good. But UCLA beat Utah, setting up a winner-take-all game at the Coliseum next weekend between USC and UCLA. Winning the next two games would mean a trip to the Rose Bowl...wait, who are we kidding? Wilcox is still the DC, so naturally his defense will make the true freshman Josh Rosen look like a Heisman candidate and Helton will be gone at the end of the season.
5. John Hancock Center: What a cursed building. When it was first built its windows blew out due to the air pressure. Years ago when I was in Chicago, high winds knocked around a loose scaffolding platform, breaking windows, dropping onto the ground and killing several people. In 2011 there was a transformer fire on the 75th floor. Today there was a fire halfway up the tower resulting in some minor casualties. That's a terrible fate for any building.

Final Fallout Shelter.

I got bored. After maxing out the 200-person limit, I was going to hang out and wait until I collected all of the weapons available. But apparently after conquering the Radroaches, Raiders, Molerats and Deathclaws, and despite their strengths suddenly raised and again defeating them resoundingly, the game rarely sent them to the vault, and it got really boring.

So here's my final vault configuration. Note the kill zone I had set up. It turns out that if you add all those elevators, the Deathclaws stop at every floor to break through; it takes a significant amount of time for the Deathclaws to reach the storage room, whereupon they would find two occupants at level 50 (max level), with massively powerful weapons -- that's after they've gone through three rooms with occupants at the top levels with powerful weapons.

It also turns out that you have to have a room at the end of all those elevators, otherwise the Deathclaws will bypass the elevators -- I had to try, just to see how the Deathclaws responded.

Notice the omission of the radio station; I deleted it once I hit the 200-person limit. Notice the guy waiting outside; I got him via a lunchbox and he's just waiting to get in, even though I've maxed out at 200.

See all those rooms? They're all fully maxed out. See how few storage rooms there are? I didn't need a lot of storage space because I always made sure that my occupants had the best weapons and outfits, and sold the rest.

Anyway, after a dozen flame throwers and a few missile launchers, it's nearly impossible to lose to Deathclaws, and that's when it gets really boring.

5 Thoughts for November 19, 2015

1. SketchUp: SketchUp 2016 is here, and it's got some really awesome changes! If you extensively use SU, you know about inferencing; SU 2016 dramatically adds to inferencing to slash your time spent on creating reference planes or lines. In Windows, the trays are now very similar to how Adobe uses panels, and can be locked to the application window, instead of floating on your desktop, but best of all, is that the tray section is a flyout -- more space on your screen to use for drawing; you can create trays to separate sections, so for instance in my "Main" tray I have Materials, Components, Layers, Soften Edges and Entity Info, while my "Scenes+Styles" tray has Scenes, Styles, Shadows and Outliner. In LayOut, you can now group objects on different layers, and shared layer objects are highlighted in a different color from non-shared layer objects -- no more accidentally drawing on the wrong layer! Finally, there's a public API available for LayOut, which means that like SU extensions, soon we'll be seeing a lot of third-party tools for LayOut. AutoCAD has officially been deprecated.
2. Racism: It's hard to believe that the Democratic mayor of Roanoke, VA penned an open letter to Roanoke government workers, suggesting that, like the internment of Japanese-Americans during WW-II, America should protect itself against foreign threats by blocking Syrian refugees from settling in the US. He wasn't just logically wrong, but he directly offended Americans -- Japanese Americans. He was promptly dropped from Hillary Clinton's team; Roanoke should drop him, too.
3. Political Cowards: The America SAFE bill which House Republicans passed (with support from 47 House Democrats), should not satisfy anyone, regardless of their opinion on the issue of Syrian refugees. This bill does not add additional screening requirements on top of what was already being done; in fact, they're merely reiterating what the FBI already does. The only new requirement in this bill, is to have the heads of the agencies in charge of refugee screenings, to certify that these people aren't terrorists. You should be cynical of Congress, as this bill's real intention is to alleviate political responsibility of Congress, were an attack to occur on American soil -- they'd blame the agencies who signed off. In fact, if you watch the NewsHour's interview of Representative Gerry Connolly (D-VA), he essentially tells us that this bill does nothing to constrict refugees from Syria. If Congress really wanted to make America safer, they'd re-examine the visa waiver program in light of how many EU citizens have traveled to the Middle East to fight in Syria, and have returned to Europe.
4. USC Trojans football: A reminder to the football players, that if you want Clay Helton (#Helton2016) to remain the head coach next year, you have to outperform your recent work by starting and finishing games on both sides of the ball and especially in special teams. If you need an incentive, by winning out, you'll be able to have a redo with Stanford for all the Roses.
5. USC Trojans football, part II: Two of USC's most important middle linebackers are out (Lamar Dawson and Cameron Smith), so it appears that they're going with a five linebacker rotation (Anthony Sarao, Osa Masina, Michael Hutchings, Olajuwon Tucker, Uchenna Nwosu). The way I see it, one of the guys in the middle should be Su'a Cravens. He's a junior who knows the system, and with his speed and toughness could easily handle the job in the middle. Sure, it means the loss of a great edge rusher, but on the other hand it means that he'll be able to run the green dog blitz -- Cravens has the knack for getting around blocks -- since you already know that they'll be playing a lot of cover-1 to defend the edge run.

10 Thoughts for November 17, 2015

10 thoughts, because it's been a few days since I posted a list of thoughts on my mind, and it's time to get them all out.

1. USC football: USC may have won, but they looked terrible. The first half was a replication of the previous game, noted by a series of comical errors. We saw defensive players lose track of their responsibilities, the offense appear befuddled against the worst defense in the division, and a special teams group that was *special*. And then, from the late 2nd quarter through the late fourth quarter, they went on a 24-0 run. If the players want Clay Helton to be hired permanently, they'll need to perform consistently and better. You can't do this against great teams and expect to win.
2. USC football, part II: When Robert Woods was a Trojan, he was a solid player and there was no doubt that he'd be drafted very high, even though he was a tad slower and undersized than what you'd want in a premier player. When Marqise Lee lined up opposite Woods, I thought that he would also be drafted very high, as he was a spectacular player, even if a bit undersized and prone to injury. When Nelson Agholor passed through, you could tell that he would be drafted high, even though he always had issues with the dropsies. With Juju Smith-Schuster, he's everything you want in a top-10 draft pick, and is easily the best receiver of them all; he's big, strong, great hands, tough as nails, and more than fast enough. Of all the receivers to come through USC in recent years, he's the one guy I look most forward to seeing in the NFL; the guy already looks the part of an NFL player.
3. Oregon football: No one expected the Ducks defense to win the day for Oregon, and yet when it counted most, they came up with the stop. With that gritty win on the road in Palo Alto, the Ducks are now 7-3. Next up: USC in Eugene -- both are 7-3, winning their last 4 games, and both have now defeated a top-10 team -- on Saturday, at 12:30 pm. The odds are in Oregon's favor, but here's the thing: Oregon's running the ball again, now 6th best in the nation, while USC's been on a rushing defense tear since Clay Helton's completely taken over as head coach, allowing just 84 yards per game, since. It's going to be an exciting game, I think.
4. Seattle Seahawks: The difference between a winning team and a losing team, is that in previous years, Russell Wilson was able to direct the team on a late 4th quarter drive to win the game, while this year he's failed in all but one game -- against Dallas. I'm not saying that it is his fault; dropped passes, still terrible offensive line play and lousy play-calling were all part of the problem in those late 4th quarter drives. The team is the same as it was in previous years, with the exception being execution in that late 4th quarter, and it seems it's largely a mental issue that started with the Super Bowl. Of course, we expected this offense to be better than prior years, with the inclusion of Jimmy Graham, but it's not working, and I keep pointing to the OC for that issue. They look like they're able to run on all cylinders about a quarter of the time, and that's about it.
5. Seattle Seahawks, part II: The lesser problem in Seattle, is that the cornerback opposite Richard Sherman is not in the same ballpark as the rest of the secondary; it wasn't Dion Bailey that was the problem in the early games, but DeShawn Shead and Cary Williams. No, Bailey was never a true replacement for Kam Chancellor, but Kam's presence hasn't been the difference between winning and losing -- they're just 4-3 with Kam back. In five games as a backup SS with the Jets, Bailey's defended two passes and is credited with half a sack. In that same period, Kam's had one interception, no sacks and one pass defended. Kam brings leadership and toughness, but Bailey's four years his junior and is just trying to get comfortable in a scheme. 
6. Politics of Terrorism: With the Paris attack, American politicians have angrily demanded that the US do more to combat terrorism. Their primary criticism is that the US needs to get deeply involved in Syria, in the fight against ISIS. These are the same people who did not want the US to bomb Syria in 2011, or refused to commit to boots on the ground, let alone push for a vote to go to war with Syria. With some nudging on Sunday's Meet the Press, Jeb! practically issued a policy laundry list of actions that had been under consideration by the Obama Administration years ago, back when politicians were noncommittal about specific plans. It turns out, terrorism is a tool of politicians, which is ironic, given that these same politicians are a bunch of tools.
7. Politics of Econ: Each political party has a different economic policy, and one is demonstrably worse than the other, but generally people don't understand the basics of Economics that would afford them the ability to judge policy differences, thus most people tend to place faith in their party, ahead of policy. I used to do that, ten years ago, before I decided to do a deep dive into Economics, and then I realized that nearly all of what came out of people's mouths were fabricated assumptions and politically-driven. When speaking to people on economic policy, the first sign that someone has bought into politically-driven policy, is the recitation of trite slogans. Nuance is the enemy of slogans.
8. Politics of Honesty: As Americans, we're taught the virtues of being honest, from the simple parable of young George Washington chopping down a cherry tree. Yet, unlike George's father who forgave his son, Americans choose to punish those who tell the truth, while rewarding liars. This reinforcing action ushers politicians to tell lies. I tell the truth, because I don't give a shit what people do in response, while in other instances I avoid telling the truth (not blunt) because some people are hurt by the truth; in politics these two are never the case. American politics are not the exception; everywhere you look, whether in Russia, France or China, politicians lie.
9. Sapiosexual: It's one of those new, amusing labels, in the vein of metrosexual. It does not describe one's sexuality, but rather, the sort of person that one is attracted to: intelligent people. Presumably, the higher one's self-confidence, the more comfortable one is with dating / marrying someone with a higher level of intelligence. Speaking of high self-confidence, what happens if someone suffers from the Dunning-Kruger Effect, and believes that someone, who is actually profoundly dumb, is attractive -- is that a Fauxsapiosexual?
10. Benghazi: Republicans are planning a European vacation on the taxpayer's dime. I realize that the Dollar is nearing its all-time high against the Euro, but this is ridiculous. If they were concerned about fact-finding on Benghazi at US airbases in Europe, they would have visited those sites, three years ago, not in 2015, after hundreds of interviews. The GOP have already told us that Hillary laid a trap that the GOP stepped right into, during her interview, and yet they persist in doing stupid things.

Review of Sling TV.

I finally got around to using my Chromecast offer for 2 free months of Sling TV. While it's just been two days, I'm confident that I can offer a fairly good review of Sling TV's service.

What it is

Sling TV is a service that allows you to watch a handful of traditionally cable-based TV channels. Its $20 basic service includes the History Channel, TNT, ESPN and ESPN2, AMC, the Food Network, A&E, HGTV, IFC, Disney Channel, TBS, the Travel Channel, Maker, Polaris+, El Rey, Adult Swim / Comedy Channel, ABC Family, H2, CNN, Lifetime TV, Bloomberg, and Galavision. There are multiple add-on packages including HBO, a Sports Extra package, and a variety of Spanish packages.  Immediately, you'll notice that Sling TV is geared towards people who are looking to cut the cord on cable TV, by streaming video through their internet service.

In my experience, I haven't had cable TV for over a decade, so my sensibilities on this are different. As a Netflix, Hulu, Crackle, Viki, YouTube user who binge-watches shows and enjoys on-demand video, SlingTV requires going back to the old paradigm of tuning in at a scheduled time, to watch any given show. Essentially, the primary benefits to me, are live events such as news and sports; I had just subscribed to SlingTV when the Paris attacks had occurred, and having CNN gave me real-time access to what was going on. If you're not a news junkie or a sports fan, this might not be the service you're looking for.

While there is no cloud-based DVR service, there are a few shows / videos that can be streamed, under the "Available Now" section. In some of those videos, you can go forward 30 seconds / rewind 10 seconds. In other videos, typically movies, you're able to simply pick on the timeline to move to that point in the movie.

Also included with Sling TV, is a rental section of movies, with separate prices for SD and HD rentals. They're generally the same prices as what you'd find in the Google Play Store / iTunes, for better or worse. Given the greater flexibility of rentals in Google Play Store, I'm inclined to stick with GPS instead of renting from Sling TV.

There are no service fees or term-based contracts, which is a huge positive, unlike cable TV service. If you only care to watch ESPN for football and football news, you can sign up for service in September, then cancel at the end of February. The money you save, is staggering, compared to cable TV service, but the video quality is not necessarily the best, and you can't record games on your DVR. Even though the app gives you the ability to set the data speed, you're still stuck with issues of network congestion that are irrelevant to your ISP's speeds.

When it's working and there are no buffering issues, the service is fine. But at times, there is significant congestion to the edge network (Sling TV host), even as the ISP's speeds are normal. Therefore, regardless of your device, your Sling TV experience will depend on your ISP's relationship with Sling TV as an edge network -- if you've had problems with your ISP and Netflix, you can probably expect the same issues. Even if you're watching videos at 2:00 am, the video will downgrade at times, which points to my ISP (Comcast) actively scaling bandwidth to edge networks, to minimize the gap between use and capacity.

Sling TV and Chromecast

With a Chromecast plugged into your TV, you can use an Android or iOS device, with their app, to cast their service to your TV (you can also access Sling TV, via apps, in your Amazon Fire TV, Roku Player, Xbox One, and Nexus Player). The Chromecast setup is not ideal; the initial connection takes about 30 seconds or more, while changing channels takes about 10 seconds, and buffering may delay live video by several minutes. With ESPN, there are some live video (games) that are blocked from casting to your TV; there is no way to determine which games will be blocked, making this a significant issue.

Their mobile app also, obviously, allows you to watch videos directly via your device. I used it to watch one football game on ESPN while I was watching another one on the big TV, via OTA digital, but of course I have a tablet with a 12.2" screen so my experience is much better than someone with a 10" or smaller screen.

Sling TV and Windows / Mac

Sling TV also has an app for Windows (W7+) and Mac (10.6+), but as it stands right now, I would not recommend installing it, as it is buggy and has other flaws.

While the app looks nearly exactly like its mobile version, the desktop app does not allow you to cast it to your TV -- that does not make sense to me. However, because I have a 24" monitor for my desktop, it's not too much of an issue, as I often watch videos from my monitor.

Installing the app in Windows 10 will mess with your Chrome's Chromecast extension -- it made my Chromecast device disappear from within my Chrome browser -- and if you enjoy casting from your Chrome browser, at least for now, I would strongly urge you to avoid installing the Sling TV app on your desktop.

While watching videos with the desktop app, there were odd buffering issues where the audio would overlap itself with a separate, delayed track. The video would also, at times, jump around or cut out completely. The only means to fix this, was to switch channels, and that's a terrible option when watching live sports.

In my opinion, they could easily fix this by throwing away their app and making a cloud service accessed via a browser. By doing so, they'd also give ChromeOS users a means to access their service. Why they built their own desktop apps, is beyond comprehension, and seems rather short-sighted.

Conclusions

I think Sling TV has huge promise, but as it currently stands, is hobbled by limited and buggy apps. Also, unfortunately because of my ISP's relationship with Sling TV's owner, DirectTV, it seems that despite FCC's Net Neutrality rules, Comcast will make Sling TV difficult to use as an absolute replacement for cable TV.

If you don't have to worry about your ISP's indignation of edge networks, I'd say that Sling TV is a very good choice for anyone who loves sports, and cable cutters. Otherwise, you might find that the laggy and buggy experience is not worth the $20 a month.

And while they've added some foreign channels in add-on packages, they're desperately missing Asian-language channels -- something that would prevent many people from leaving cable.

I'm making use of my free two months, and perhaps at the end of that period, Sling TV folks will improve their relationship with Comcast and fix their apps. Since I'm not planning on subscribing all 12 months of the year, it's still a palatable service to pay for, even with all its flaws. Still, I wouldn't be able to recommend this to everyone; I'll only recommend this service to those folks I know who can take care of their own technical service issues.

Top row is the live schedule; below is what's available off the schedule.

Hit the "On Now" button and it'll show what's currently showing on each channel.

Under "Settings/Connection" you can set the data speeds.

The race to the PAC-12 Championship.

With Oregon beating Stanford and Arizona beating Utah, the race to the PAC-12 Championship was shaken up quite a bit. To get to the championship game:

• Stanford: Even though the Cardinals lost to Oregon, they still control their own destiny in reaching the PAC-12 Championship game. Beat Cal and they're in. If they lose to Cal, they'll need Oregon to lose both remaining games (USC, Oregon State).
• Oregon: Ducks needs to win out (against USC and Oregon State) and have Cal beat Stanford.
• Utah: Utes need to win out and have USC lose to either Oregon or UCLA.
• UCLA: Bruins need to win out (against Utah and USC).
• USC: Trojans need to either win out (against Oregon and UCLA), or if they lose to Oregon but beat UCLA, they will need Utah to lose to either UCLA or Colorado.

I'm sorry, WSU, but you can't make it to the PAC-12 Championship even if you win out.

If Oregon beats OSU and Cal beats Stanford, Oregon is in because in the three-way tie no one owns a head-to-head tie-breaker (Oregon beat Stanford, Stanford beat WSU, WSU beat Oregon), so the next step is the in-division record. By beating the Beavers, Oregon would own a 4-1 North division record while WSU and Stanford would hold a 3-2 record.

If Oregon loses to either USC or Oregon State, Cougars would be in a two-way tie with Stanford, but Stanford holds the head-to-head tie-breaker with the Cougars, so the Cardinals would go to the championship game.

Even though the Cougs can't make it to the championship game, everyone is impressed with how they recovered from that disastrous first game of the season against Portland State, to its best record in 12 years. (And speaking of Portland State, what a turnaround, from a 3-9 season to 8-2 and a very good chance to make the FCS playoffs, making the Coug loss to PSU less shocking.)

Paris.

via Jean Jullien

5 Thoughts for November 11, 2015

1. GOP Debate: No, I didn't watch the debate; there's not much point to it, if the candidates are allowed to create their own facts and make bold statements that are counter to the historical record. But if I had watched, I would have guessed that Rubio won --  he's been getting comfortable over time and into the swing of things, while Bush continues to dive. The only question is, whether Rubio's past will haunt him; if not, then he's going to be the GOP nominee; he might even win against Clinton if he gets past the primary and is allowed to talk up immigration reform without losing his base.
2. The 100: It's a terrible show. Still, I'm binge-watching it. Once I get through season 2, I'm done with the show. Here's what's wrong with the show: Everything. Roughly every 5 minutes there's a logical flaw, a character who changes his or her stripes, or a flip-flop on who's patronizing who. It's a show that is targeted to teens, by fantasizing that adults are incapable, and if only kids could take over the world, things would get better. So many logical errors, that it's difficult to watch the show.
3. Starbucks: If they wanted to "get rid of Christmas", they would not make the cups red, nor use "Christmas" explicitly in environmental design, packaging and products. I am in disbelief that so many idiots, including politicians and the media, would believe some two-bit preacher hack (and his acolytes) on YouTube, who clearly has an agenda that is disparate from the truth. I'm so irritated by this devilish person, there's just no way I'm going to link to his video or mention his name. As for the intern-designed Dunkin' Donuts cups...it's time to stop using MS Paint.
4. iPad Pro: No, it's not a replacement for your desktop or your laptop if you require lots of computing power -- 3D renderings or long algorithm processing -- but I really do think that these larger screen tablets (12" and up) are useful. Now, I realize lots of people want to believe that they're power users, but this is not the case. However, you have to understand that these large tablet screens is where iOS and Android fall short in the UI department, and where Windows 10 would shine; this is exactly the opposite on small screens like smart phones, where iOS and Android shine, and Windows 10 sucks.
5. Portland Rents: I know that rents are rising and that new construction doesn't actually help since most of them are targeting upper market rentals, but I also know that this isn't a strictly Portland phenomenon; rents are rising all over the west coast. While this may be driving artists out of Portland, it also means that cool is being spread outward, too. Either East Portland or Hillsboro, would be my guess of what's the next cool place; both are connected to TriMet's Max and both are secondary cities, just as Tacoma is to Seattle. Rent control is not the answer; it will exacerbate rental availability in Portland, by putting an artificial cap on profitability on new development, which will then trigger greater investment (such as large tax subsidies) by the city, to encourage development.