Wednesday, October 29, 2014

Why the Jets are screwed up.

The Jets are in complete disarray, it seems.  When Rex Ryan arrived in 2009, they did everything right to build upon what was already there.  But starting in 2011, everything seemed to go from bad to worse.

As it turns out, the Jets' current situation is the culmination of a series of errors that first began in the summer of 2011.  And it was entirely predictable that they would end up in the cellar this year.
  • July 2011 -- Jets brought in Plaxico Burress for a 1-year deal, on the theory that he was the needed offensive weapon to help Mark Sanchez out.  My belief is, you never hire someone so stupid as to shoot themself in the leg; accidents with guns don't happen to people who take great care of the details.  On the field this translated to 45 receptions out of 97 targets.  If you watched him play, he gave up on routes.
  • January 2012 -- Offensive coordinator Brian Schottenheimer took the brunt of the blame for a bad season, and left, following disputes with receivers who wanted more passing in the game (think Burress).  He was close to Mark Sanchez, mentoring him along the way -- some people forget that Sanchez left after starting just one year at USC -- which would portend a decline in Sanchez's performance without an equal mentor.
  • January 2012 -- Upon Schottenheimer's departure, the Jets managed to come up with the unbelievably dumb idea of bringing in Tony Sparano as OC, who had been fired a month earlier (during the season no less) as head coach of Miami.  Now, think about it: the Jets, who finished 2nd place in their division, hired the fired HC from the team that finished behind them in their division -- I ask you, is that not stupid?  Well, he flopped as he brought the offense down even further, ranked 30 out of 32 teams for the 2012 season, and was fired.
  • March 2012 -- Mark Sanchez and the Jets signed a 3-year deal with guaranteed $20M for 2012 and 2013 -- an increase of about $2.5M a year.  Did he deserve it?  Well, the issue here is whether or not they thought he was their future.  They apparently didn't know what to do with Mark, so what they actually did was restructure his contract with that extra $2.5M a year, so that they could opt out in year 3, and that's exactly what they ended up doing.
  • March 2012 -- To bolster the offense (as they described it), the Jets traded two 2012 draft picks for Tim Tebow.  This, coming right on the heels of that restructured deal with Sanchez giving him more money for 2012 and 2013.  Remarkably, he only threw 8 times and ran 32 times, and then he was cut the following spring.  This stunt cost them money in 2013, because they were still paying his salary even though he was cut. 
  • April 2013 -- The Jets trade away their best defensive player, Darrelle Revis.  With Revis, the Jets had one of the best passing defenses; without Revis they're absolutely mediocre.
  • April 2013 -- With additional brilliance in tactical thinking, the Jets drafted Geno Smith in the 2nd round, a dual-threat quarterback, in what was generally seen as a weak pool of quarterbacks.  Was he, as they explained, there to push Sanchez, or was he their hope for a franchise player to replace Sanchez?  Imagine if they had picked Eddie Lacy, instead.  In the end, they picked a guy whose negative PFW scouting report seems to have come to fruition both off and on the field.
  • August 2013 -- Late in the 4th quarter in an inconsequential third preseason game against the NY Giants, the Jets braintrust sent their likely starting quarterback -- Mark Sanchez -- into the game behind a third-string line (guys who'd either end up cut or signed to the practice squad), following Geno Smith's 3rd inteception.  He got hit, and as a result, suffered a season-ending injury.  A little stunt to try to light a fire under Mark Sanchez, backfired and cost them $20M to pay a player who would not play the entire season.
  • March 2014 -- After dragging their feet on releasing Mark Sanchez, and thereby devaluing his negotiating position with other teams, the Jets promptly signed an aging Michael Vick.  If they thought that he was a proper mentor for Geno Smith, they were fooling themselves.  In the first game where Ryan sent Vick in to replace Smith, Vick bombed, then later admitted to not being prepared for the game.  In the second game (against Buffalo) where he was sent in, he matched Smith's 3 turnovers.  I haven't seen anyone say that Geno Smith has progressed this year; everyone seems to agree that he has digressed from last year. 
Instead of shoring up their offensive weapons, the Jets have been content with finding players who've been cut by other teams.  And when they did pick a receiver high in a draft, they totally flubbed it.  In the 2012 draft, they took Stephen Hill over obviously better players such as Alshon Jeffery, Reuben Randle and T.Y. Hilton.  Oops!

And for the guy they initially talked about as being a franchise player, they did no favors for Geno Smith, either.  This past year they drafted three wide receivers, but chose poorly.  4th round Jalen Saunders was gone by the end of September, now signed on the practice team for the Arizona Cardinals; fellow 4th rounder Shaq Evans was placed on IR before the season even got started, meaning that he was gone for the season; 6th round pick, Quincy Enunwa got placed on the practice squad coincidentally after he was arrested for assault in a domestic abuse case that was dropped two weeks ago.

Then there's the problem of the offensive line.

In the Rex Ryan years, the Jets have made 7 offensive line picks in drafts.  Of those, just two of them remain on their active roster.  Their highest o-line pick was in the second round: Vladimir Ducasse.  Well, everyone who's a Jets fan knows how bad he turned out to be.  Matt Slauson took a pay cut to stay with the Jets and got rewarded by having to split time with this guy. Imagine if they had picked Shawn Lauvao instead.

To highlight this issue about o-line quality, all we need to do is look at the quarterback sacks they've given up.  I know, people believe that Sanchez was terrible, but the records speak otherwise.

In 2008, when Brett Favre played QB for the Jets, they allowed just 1.875 sacks per game.  The best offensive output of the Jets under Sanchez came in 2010, when they only allowed 1.6875 sacks per game.

The following year when the Jets began their decline, the o-line gave up 2.4375 sacks per game.  This year, through 8 games they've given up 2.75 sacks per game.  Do you see the trend here?  Give up a lot of sacks and your quarterback will look bad.  Give up fewer sacks and your quarterback will look good.

YearQuarterbackGamesSacksSacks / Game
2014Smith / Vick8222.75
2013Smith16432.6875
2012Sanchez / McElroy16452.8125
2011Sanchez16392.4375
2010Sanchez16271.6875
2009Sanchez / Clemens16301.875
2008Favre16301.875

By the way, in 2012, McElroy started one game over Mark Sanchez, and got sacked 11 times (one short of tying the NFL record for sacks in a single game).

One final example of how little concern Rex Ryan and the Jets braintrust has had for their offense: Under Ryan, the Jets have had 7 1st-round picks, and of the 7, only one was an offensive player -- Mark Sanchez.

You know what makes that 6 out of 7 1st round picks going to defensive players look bad?  Having your defense ranked 30th out of 32 teams on scoring defense despite collecting so many 1st rounders -- ouch!

People love to make fun of Mark Sanchez, but he brought them twice to the AFC championship -- a feat the Jets last accomplished under the play of the great Joe Namath, dating back to 1969.  In the years that followed, the Jets never had back-to-back appearances in the AFC championship.

And so here we are in 2014, and the Jets are in shambles.  They tried to undermine Sanchez with Geno Smith, hoping that Smith would beat out Sanchez during the 2013 preseason, only to have it backfire on them, so they own 100% of what's going on in 2014.

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