ChromeOS: World domination (or something like it) in 5 years or less
I am quite aware that many tech folks roll their eyes at the suggestion that ChromeOS will eventually displace and dominate Windows for market share. It is absolutely true that ChromeOS, currently associated hardware, some current web technologies and current internet access speeds all create some obstacles towards this end. But I believe the future of all apps is web-based programming.
Assuming that you want to create an app that is easily accessible from either a smart phone, a tablet or a desktop / laptop. The problem has typically been, that you've got all sorts of operating systems that you have to address in unique ways. The Office for Mac is an entirely different box of code from that of Office for Windows, which is an entirely different box of code from that of Office for Windows RT, and so on.
The solution is to program for the web, and let the browser handle the interface between each operating system. With ChromeOS, what is essentially a browser, you're telling Google to handle the back end of the interface between different operating systems and your app. Now, if someone writes an app that works inside of the Chrome browser, what's to stop people from simply sticking with Windows and a Chrome browser?
Actually, price matters
Price is a big issue for Microsoft. The Windows operating system is not cheap, even at the OEM level. OEM pricing is at about $100 per license. What's the cost of the ChromeOS? $0. What's the cost of MacOS? $0.
Microsoft is caught in a Catch-22: Do they give the OS away and lose substantial (about 1/3rd) amount of income on licenses, or do they continue to see market share dwindle along with their license income? That's what Microsoft is facing, even as sales for PCs remain sluggish, or under projections from IDC and others, dropping fast.
Microsoft is reactive, not proactive
Microsoft is such a laggard these days however, that I strongly doubt they'll be able to react in time to save Windows. It was a couple of years between the day the iPhone went on sale and the first WP device. The story is the same regardless of what you look at (iPod, iPad, Google Apps, Bing, etc): Microsoft is reactive not proactive.
Lack of native apps?
I know that a major gripe of ChromeOS, being a browser, is that apps are hosted online. But every month there are more native apps being produced. Furthermore, if you buy a 3G / 4G connected device and utilize T-Mobile's 200MB / month for free, you're set up quite nicely to be productive online or offline. Suddenly, that plane trip with your ChromeOS laptop is a productive, connected journey. Your office is anywhere, not just coffee shops with free WiFi.
But wait, are you really working at remote locations without protected WiFi? At home or at work, you're probably always connected to a secured WiFi, which defuses the need for hosted apps. Eventually, one can imagine that the ChromeOS world will look an awful lot like that of Android's.
Power users will have to wait
I have emphasized that for most users, ChromeOS will hold strong appeal. But for obvious reasons, power users are a separate category. For instance, I will always need one computer that allows me to produce 3D and 2D content, whether renderings, modeling or graphics layout (that is, unless I decide to move on and become a beach bum or a mountain man). These things require fast pipelines, and the current state of the internet means that, even at gigabit speed, this is nothing but a pipe dream for now. Consider that SATA III is specified for 6Gbps. If you're sharing a gigabit internet connection, your network speed will be even slower than a SATA III connector inside of your computer.
And of course, the constant loading of apps that are on the order of 500MB, will make your computer far too sluggish to use for work. Yeah I know, lots of people consider themselves power users, but very few truly are. 1MB spreadsheets are nothing compared to my 100MB 3D models and 1GB XML 3D rendering files.
But here's the thing about power users: Linux could mark the next great step towards lower-cost, high powered computers that bypass the Windows OS ecosystem. My next desktop will likely be a custom-build on the Ubuntu platform. Using WINE, I'll be able to run Windows software. Or I could split boots between Windows 7 and Ubuntu. Forget Windows 8.1.
What about Windows 9?
I think that Microsoft is too heavily invested in its vision of what Windows should look like, tiles and all. Which is to say that I don't hold high hopes for Windows 9. I would be surprised if they pulled a turnaround, because the rhetoric surrounding Windows 8 and 8.1 implies that the company does not see the current OS as a failure, whereas it was quite clear that the rhetoric surrounding Vista was an explicit acknowledgement that Vista was a failure. Besides, as I said before, cost remains an unresolved issue for Microsoft. If they continue to charge for it they face dwindling users, while giving it away means shrinking income.
But won't people simply switch to Macs?
No silly; price matters! And, Macs remain a relatively closed system, such that hardware manufacturers will embraced ChromeOS, shooting the price down as specs get better. The future, my friends, is ChromeOS. The proof will be CES 2014. Watch as companies all flock to ChromeOS.
Or I could just be completely wrong and Microsoft regains its dominant position in the world and Google disappears.
Laughter ensues.
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