It's Not a Race.

I can prove to you rather easily that the 2016 Presidential Election is not a race, which is to say that with a single bullet point I can show you that Donald can't win. But there's no fun in that, so I'll give you three.

Donald Bush

I call him Donald Bush, because in order to win he'd have to replicate something resembling what George Bush did (illegitimately, I might add) in 2000.

2000 Electoral College Map

2016 Hillary's Worst-Case Scenario

In the second map, this is Hillary's worst-case scenario. She still wins, ending up with 273 electoral college votes. If he can't match Bush in 2000, there's no way he can win, and his poll numbers have never matched up to Bush's 2000 win. Imagine how that map would look if you take into account the current polls.

Donald's Red State Problem

What's really going to kill Donald's candidacy is that a bunch of red states are now extremely competitive. In fact, there are more red states that are competitive than what the media is letting on. You might have heard about Arizona and Georgia, but Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas are all solid red states (where Obama lost by double-digit points in 2012) that may be competitive when new polling comes out. That is to say, the most recent polling showed Donald with a single-point margin over Hillary, which is highly unusual for these states.

In the map below, this is the current state of the election, where the tan states are those under single-digits and possibly in play for Democrats.

Not only will Donald and the GOP have to spend time and money chasing after the 'battleground' states, but they'll now have to defend several red states.

Donald's Non-Hispanic White Problem

The Census has shown that the non-Hispanic White population is shrinking as a percentage of the total population. The US average is roughly 75%. Donald's red state problem coincides with states with lower than average non-Hispanic White percentages. By solely chasing the non-Hispanic White population, Donald has aligned himself with a losing tactic.

In Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi, the most recent polls (some are months old) show that the two are in a statistical tie. Considering that the national polls have actually improved for Hillary in the week after the convention, it seems that her bounce is no mere bounce, and may be very representative of the mood of much of the country, including many red states.

And therein lies the three problems with Donald's efforts to make this a race. Under the rosiest of scenarios, he can't win because durable poll numbers show that he's too far behind in Bush's 2000 race. In the worst-case scenario that is slowly gaining ground, we're talking a massive blowout, northward of 370 electoral college votes.