5 Thoughts for August 31, 2016

1. Sign of Climate Change?: I'm working on a deeper post about this, but today there are twin hurricanes separated by days, heading towards Hawai'i. This time last year we saw the same thing.
2. USC vs Alabama: ESPN did a positional comparison. USC has the edge in 3 positions: quarterback, running back and secondary; Alabama has the edge in 3 positions: offensive line, defensive line and linebacker. The teams are tied in 2 positions: special teams and wide receiver. That alone should imply that the two teams are roughly a good match for each other and that the game should be close. But if they were honest, they would admit that Alabama's field goal kicking is so bad (Adam Griffith went 1 for 5 in the spring game!) that USC should have the edge in special teams. Also, they seem to have left out that while starter Chad Wheeler might be out, USC left tackle Chuma Edoga started against Utah last year, back when Utah was 6-0 and ranked #3 in the country; given that every one of the two-deep on USC's o-line played extensively last year, USC should have the advantage here. Recalculate it, and USC should have the advantage in 5 position groups, tied in one, and Alabama with the advantage in two. I didn't spend a bunch of time rewatching Alabama's spring game and the NC game for nothing. That is why I'm saying that USC could win in a tight one, but if USC's offense shows up, they might blow out Alabama.
3. Michele Bachmann's God: Today, Bachmann told a Christian news outlet that, "I don’t think God sits things out. He’s a sovereign God." That's asinine. In Genesis 1:26-29 God gave Man dominion over earthly matters. But let's say that God did intervene and push Donald to the top of the GOP field to face Hillary, but then lost; would that mean that he meant for the GOP to suffer the pangs of humiliation because of their support for a pathological liar who had never practiced what he -- currently -- preaches? She's put herself in a bind, hasn't she?
4. Donald's 47% Moment?: Mother Jones reported today an in-depth investigation of Donald's fashion modeling company, and his long-standing violations of federal immigration laws that could actually send him to prison. It's not just that he broke federal laws -- yet again -- but that he's, right now, operating his business in a hypocritical manner directly in contravention of his own, tough immigration talk. Effectively, he's showing that not only is his talk just fluff but that as President his own companies would be breaking the very laws he's supposed to uphold. 
5. EU's Competition Rules: Apple was hit with a $14.5B tax bill, by the EU Competition Committee, payable to Ireland, over a tax abatement agreement between Ireland and Apple. Yes, it is reprehensible that Ireland gave Apple a < 1% corporate tax rate, but going after Apple? Shouldn't they be targeting Ireland, rather than the corporations? I guess I'm still waiting for them to target Airbus. I keed. They'd never pursue one of their own. You see where I'm going, here: The EU Competition Committee is self-interested in protecting domestic corporations.

71 Days Left

There may be 71 days left to go until election day, but just 51 days until ballots are mailed out to Oregonians.

Donald's been trying to reach out to African-Americans, or perhaps more accurately he's been trying to relieve White voters of their guilt of supporting a racist, by offering what seems like a helping hand to African-Americans. He's failing badly.

How badly you ask?

I give you today's theme, Zero.

So, maybe I'll win (saved by zero)
Maybe I'll win (saved by zero)

A link that is central to today's theme: Donald has zero African-American support.

Shh, don't laugh out loud at the cafe!

This is Donald's Supporters

This is the image that African-American pastor, Mark Burns, a prominent, vocal supporter of Donald Trump, tweeted today.

The original editorial cartoon came from conservative cartoonist Antonio F. Franco (no, he is not black) who posted it to his website and has been shown on other websites, since April of this year.

Mark Burns initially attempted to defend posting the cartoon, but he took it down and apologized for posting it when it became apparent that his post was going viral in the news and was antithetical to the moderation that Kellyanne Conway was attempting to bring to Donald's campaign.

This is Donald's supporters.

I just wanted to give you a small view into some of the milder things circulating within conservative circles.

About Stranger Things

Binge-watched it, which was roughly 8 hours over the weekend. I liked it, but I didn't love it.

The show was supposed to date back to 1983 (hey, I was in middle school in 1983!), but they got the little details wrong. In 1983, most of us had push-button and cordless phones; rotary units were already on the way out. In 1983, many households had Walkmans, but what we saw instead were 70s style over the ear headphones. Maybe in Indiana middle-school kids were excited about CB radios, but the geeks in my school (I count myself a geek) were using TRS-80 computers to learn BASIC, by 1983.

That Ford Pinto? Mid-70s. Okay, maybe 1983 Indiana was really poor and so they mostly drove vehicles from the mid-70s. However, by 1983 the rage was cheap Japanese imports, particularly the Toyota Carolla and Nissan Sentra, yet not a single Japanese import? Hmm. To top things off, that VW Cabriolet didn't exist in 1983.

Even the music was a little off. For instance, they made the mistake of including The Bangles' rendition of Hazy Shade of Winter, which wasn't released until 1985 and it didn't gain steam until 1987's Less Than Zero movie. Even Corey Hart's Sunglasses at Night wasn't released until 1984. The Clash's Should I Stay or Should I Go has the right timing, but The Clash's big song in 1983 was Rock the Casbah. I get the subtext of the song they used, but Hall and Oates' Maneater was huge in 1983 and works just as well:

"Watch out boy
She'll chew you up
(Oh-oh, here she comes)
She's a maneater"

You know who was really hot in 1983? Michael Jackson. In late 1982, Jackson released one of his best albums, Thriller. Can't think of a better song to feature on a show like Stranger Things.

So yeah, everything was just a little off. Maybe that's okay for most folks, but the other problem I had with the show was that more than half the characters were busy shouting all the time at each other, particularly Winona Ryder's character. It started to get tiresome for me, knowing that when she was in the shot we were surely going to be treated to another angry shout -- was there anyone who didn't get yelled at?

The saving grace in all of this were the visuals and the basic story. In the 80s, what movie / show didn't have teenagers as the heroines? This pretty much matched that formula, but with the creepy feel of the X-Files. In other words, a show that was meant to appeal to Gen-X. Winona Ryder -- can you get any more Gen-X than her?

72 Days Left

Time is ticking down rapidly. In 28 days we'll have the first of three presidential debates and one vice-presidential debate. Can the election's dynamics change? Of course they can! But a tiger can't change its stripes, hence, even when Donald to stay on message, he remains an angry white man and an angry white man eventually loses patience and lashes out.

Today's theme, Out of Time

You're out of touch
I'm out of time
But I'm out of my head
When you're not around



A link related to today's theme: Trump might already be out of time

5 Thoughts for August 27, 2016

1. Seattle Seahawks: Through three preseason games, the three clear signals we have are, (1) Christine Michael has matured and is now a very good running back, having chosen to take the difficult route to getting where he is now; (2) The team is in a much better place than they were all of last year, with depth all around and a much improved offensive line; (3) It looks like Seattle won the lottery for best value in the undrafted free agent market, picking up TCU's Trevone Boykin who might be the best backup Carroll's ever had in Seattle.
2. Tony Romo: When he went down against Seattle, all I could think of was that he should consider retiring. He wasn't hit hard nor did he land on the ground particularly awkward, which makes one worry that 2016 may mirror last year with Romo breaking a bone and forced to sit out the remainder of the season. At least this year they have a really good rookie in (Mississippi State) Zak Prescott. Today, it was revealed that he had a compression fracture in his back and will miss 6-10 weeks. It might be time to retire before something far worse happens on the field.
3. Hawai'i vs Cal: The college football season has officially started. Hawai'i and Cal in Australia was a crazy offensive affair. My five observations are (1) Cal's defensive front four might not be so good as they generally didn't seem to be able to control the line of scrimmage; (2) Cal's offensive line might have a lot of experience but they had trouble with blitzes and run blocking, which might not be obvious from the stats but much of their run yardage came from second-level failures in the Rainbow Warrior defense; (3) PAC-12 officiating is still bad, getting calls mixed up; (4) Both teams used senior quarterbacks, but whose passes were frequently off target; (5) Cal used a hurry-up offense, getting in 89 plays, and it worked against a team that was in the bottom 20% of total defense last year, but seems likely to work against them in the PAC-12.
4. Why USC-LAT Poll Is Weird: Sure, I buy the 538 argument that you can simply add 5 points to the USC-LAT Poll to compensate for house effect (bias towards GOP) and still see how their poll mirrors the national aggregate. But what is weird, is that the people polled consistently believe that Clinton will win, even as many of them obviously express a preference to vote for Donald. In the nearly two months they've been tracking people's expectation of the winner, Hillary is sitting at her highest point (55+%) and Donald at his lowest (~39%).
5. USC-Alabama: I've watched the Alabama spring game a couple of times now, and I think it goes without saying that its offense is not at the same level as last year, but especially without Cam Robinson at left tackle; if he plays against USC the offense will be okay, but without him they'll stink. The true freshman Jalen Hurts is a really good dual-threat quarterback and would make their offense look a lot better, even if Robinson isn't playing, but some of his throws can be way off the mark and he's willing to take the sack far too often. The defensive front seven are stout, particularly the linebackers + 'jack' position. Their field goal kicking game sucks big time. Looking at the matchups, I think Alabama's defense has the edge against USC's offense, but USC's defense under Clancy Pendergast has the advantage over Alabama's offense (yes, really). The oddsmakers all seem to think the over/under is 54 with Alabama a 10-point favorite, but I think the over/under will be 31 with USC and a 3-point win (or 3-point loss). I just don't see how Alabama scores 30+ points with the state of their offense, even if they rely solely on the run game. On the other hand, I can see USC's receivers possibly taking advantage of Alabama's secondary, especially over the top with Max Browne, particularly from the play-action pass. The difficulty will be establishing the run against Alabama's front seven to make the play-action pass work, but if they are able to do that, the Trojans just might shock the country and roll up a 30-14 win against the Tide.

Today's Word: Mainstreamism.

I like to create new words. Inspired by Donald's push to refashion far-right extremism (racism) into acceptance of the mainstream consciousness, I give you:

Mainstreamism
n.
The acceptance of previously-extremist ideas and behaviors as mainstream.

ex. "In 2016, Donald Trump's America turned White supremacy into Mainstreamism."

Clinton Foundation: There's Nothing There

I am not shocked one bit that the general intelligence of the news media and the American public is relatively low. What I find disturbing, however, is the rampant exercise of false assertions between the news media and the American public, based on poor understanding of the facts.

There are three concepts / topics to understand, in order to judge what occurred between the Clinton Foundation and Hillary's actions as Secretary of State:

18 U.S. Code § 201 -- This establishes what constitutes bribery. There are two key phrases used, "corruptly" and "official act", in relation to this topic. In order to have a finding of bribery, one must establish that two persons -- the donor and the receiver -- acted together, or "corruptly". Part of this arrangement must also incorporate an "official act", that is to say, that the receiver has the capacity to effect change in pending matters or is able to bring forth matters to be acted upon.

Quid Pro Quo -- Latin, meaning something for something. In general, this means that a transaction took place. Acting "corruptly", under 18 U.S.Code § 201, invokes a necessity of proof of a transaction.

McDonnell vs. US -- In a unanimous decision this past term, SCOTUS ruled in favor of Bob McDowell who had been convicted of receiving money for favors. In their ruling, they noted that prosecution required distinct quid pro quo.

In essence, look no further than McDonnell vs. US, to find that Hillary and the Clinton Foundation did nothing wrong. The news media purports impropriety from a link between donations and setting up of meetings with donors, or handing off a contact to someone else in the government. This is precisely the sort of stuff that was outlined as being acceptable by SCOTUS.

Rather, SCOTUS affirmed (through criticism) the requirement that quid pro quo involving an official act shall clearly be established:

"Section 201 prohibits quid pro quo corruption -- the exchange of a thing of value for an “official act.” In the Government’s view, nearly anything a public official accepts -- from a campaign contribution to lunch -- counts as a quid; and nearly anything a public official does -- from arranging a meeting to inviting a guest to an event -- counts as a quo."

Note that no one in the press has identified a quid pro quo relationship between the Foundation donations and any of the favors allegedly handed out by the SOS. No one has said, "I want this favor in exchange for this donation". Without proof of quid pro quo or that the SOS committed an official act in exchange, this case does not even rise to what occurred in McDonnell's situation.

So what do we really have here? Innuendo. Bad optics. Politics.

Funny thing, though, because every politician engages in the aforementioned activity. They regularly meet with lobbyists who pay money into their SuperPACs or donate directly to their campaigns. They regularly host campaign dinners and speak with influential donors who wish to have their voices heard on a variety of self-serving issues.

In other words, friends, there's nothing there.

November Path to Heaven?

Donald is surely not a religious man. He hath confronted bearing false witness without repentance or regret and probably still thinks there are just two Corinthians. I'm not convinced that he fears the wrath of God or understands what evil is.

Nonetheless, Donald pleaded with Evangelicals at a meeting in Orlando to get out and vote for him because winning in November was "maybe the only way I'm going to get to heaven."

Nope. Still headed to Hell.

5 Thoughts for August 11, 2016

1. Donald's Dangerous Speech: Donald boldly incited violence against Hillary, earlier this week. The oddest part about it was the reaction from his apologists who offered three excuses: (1) He was joking; (2) He was doing public service by warning people about the threat of violence; (3) He was encouraging people to get out and vote for him. Everyone else understood what he was trying to do. This time he went beyond embarrassing; he crossed the line into what is called stochastic terrorism. In a normal year that would automatically disqualify him, but this year, people are okay with violent speech and violent acts. Lest anyone forget, Donald actively encouraged his audience to punch a protester in the face, and one obliged.
2. NOlympics Update: I still haven't watched a single second of the Olympics. It appears that others are following suit, too. Ratings are way down going back a decade, and attendance is very poor. Apparently, even the athletes are publicly showing their disdain for the IOC and its corruption, by calling out cheaters who were allowed to compete with barely a slap on the hand.
3. Google Fiber in Portland: Looks like there's been a major change in course for Google, nearly two months following its acquisition of Webpass. They've filed a plan with the FCC to test wireless P2P in the 3.4 - 3.8Ghz range in multiple cities and Portland is on the list of 'potential' test locations. Its potential testing range is a 30km radius which would encompass Hillsboro, Wilsonville, Gresham and Vancouver. I'm biased in favor of wireless, as despite the flaws of WiMax have shown me, not having to wait until a company has wired your street / home / apartment means a much shorter wait and fewer dependencies. Of course, fixed P2P gigabit wireless is already here: Stephouse Networks. Stephouse offers the same 1 Gbps speed for the same price ($69), but without the wait.
4. Long Passwords and Best Practices: I've long written here that a lot of what you've heard about what constitutes a good password, is in fact, wrong. It is not correct that complex passwords are necessarily better, if they're very short. Instead, the best defense is actually the very long password. Looks like the NIST has caught up. Unfortunately, there is another problem at work here: Breached sites where passwords are stolen. It meant that one could not safely reuse the same password, even if it were a very long password. As much as I loved using long passwords, I could not manage to memorize 77 unique, very long passwords. I use a password manager to maintain best practices.
5. I Was Wrong About GOP and Donald: I used to think that at the very least one could say that the GOP had 'different' ideas. It turns out that I was wrong, and I was also incorrect when I said that Donald had a floor of roughly 70%. It's actually 72% and the GOP is pretty much brain dead. 72% of Republicans either believe that Obama wasn't born in the US or don't know where he was born. You can't fix dumb, ergo the GOP is nothing more than a zombie political party full of people without a hint of intelligence.

5 Things You Need to Know About Donald's 'Economic' Plan

1. Tax brackets -- His new tax brackets are 12%, 25% and 33%. The current brackets are 10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 28%, 33%, and 39.5%. Immediately, you'll notice that while he slashes the top marginal tax bracket, he has actually increased the lowest rate from 10% to 12%, and the next two lowest rates are also boosted from 15% and 20% upwards to 25%. The rich get richer while the poor get poorer! He justifies this simplification, saying, "Our current tax code is so burdensome and complex that we waste 9 billion hours a year in tax code compliance." But that's complete BS because reducing the brackets does not simplify the act of looking at the tax tables -- absent a flat tax, you still have a marginal tax that requires looking up on a table to see how much you pay, or if you're using a computer program the software automatically calculates it for you, making it no less simple than before.
2. Stimulus Spending on Infrastructure -- Last week, Donald made it known that his plan would include a $1T infrastructure spending plan, asserting that it was on par with what Bernie Sanders proposed. I had to laugh, therefore, when one of his own 'economic' advisers -- Stephen Moore -- suggested last Friday that the 2009 ARRA was ineffectual and therefore a waste of money. Note that the stimulus bill was less than what Donald is proposing, but that's not the real kicker. You see, conservative 'economists' such as Stephen Moore have argued in the past that stimulus spending crowds out private spending, regardless of whether or not the country is in a recession. And yet, we're approaching full employment and Donald is proposing a $1T federal spending package. Such hypocrisy!
3. Lower Corporate Tax Rate -- Donald proposes slashing the corporate tax rate from 35% to 15%. His stated goal is to eliminate inversions and increase domestic investment. This is Voodoo Econ 101, supply-side economics. According to conservatives, increasing the money supply should always increase economic activity. And yet, we have the Zero-Lower Bound (ZLB)! Corporations already have access to cheap (or free) money, and making it cheaper won't suddenly boost investment. Donald also suggests that this will help small businesses most, which is complete horse manure. According to the conservative Tax Foundation, there are more sole proprietorships than corporations, which means that income is passed through, not taxed at the corporate level. A cut in corporate taxes has zero effect on small businesses.
4. Tax Deduction or Credit? -- Donald also pretends to help out the poor and middle class by proposing to make the 'average childcare cost' fully tax deductible. In other words, you won't pay taxes on that portion of your income that is spent on childcare. Except, the poor and lower middle class already have economic support from the federal and state government on childcare, making this deduction worthless. More importantly, if Donald cared so much for the poor and middle class, why not make it a tax credit? A tax credit is money in your hands, not a tiny deduction off the top of your owed income, after all. The reason is, that Donald doesn't know how poor and middle-class actually live.
5. Trade Reform -- You should be wary of a guy promising to renegotiate existing (NAFTA) trade deals, when this guy has a terrible record on negotiations. The dude was so bad at negotiations, he lost money on many deals, including the most infamous debacle of his Trump Taj Mahal. Here's the problem with his boasts: Using tariffs as a leverage doesn't work nearly as well as has been implied, because tariffs work both ways, and cutting off trade in both directions results in higher consumer prices in both countries. That's the point of trade deals: To lower costs for everyone. It's not that I'm not open to renegotiating trade deals; it's that Donald has zero history as a successful negotiator, and contrary to what he says, his own actions show a terrible temperament to be a top negotiator.

It's Not a Race.

I can prove to you rather easily that the 2016 Presidential Election is not a race, which is to say that with a single bullet point I can show you that Donald can't win. But there's no fun in that, so I'll give you three.

Donald Bush

I call him Donald Bush, because in order to win he'd have to replicate something resembling what George Bush did (illegitimately, I might add) in 2000.

2000 Electoral College Map

2016 Hillary's Worst-Case Scenario

In the second map, this is Hillary's worst-case scenario. She still wins, ending up with 273 electoral college votes. If he can't match Bush in 2000, there's no way he can win, and his poll numbers have never matched up to Bush's 2000 win. Imagine how that map would look if you take into account the current polls.

Donald's Red State Problem

What's really going to kill Donald's candidacy is that a bunch of red states are now extremely competitive. In fact, there are more red states that are competitive than what the media is letting on. You might have heard about Arizona and Georgia, but Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas are all solid red states (where Obama lost by double-digit points in 2012) that may be competitive when new polling comes out. That is to say, the most recent polling showed Donald with a single-point margin over Hillary, which is highly unusual for these states.

In the map below, this is the current state of the election, where the tan states are those under single-digits and possibly in play for Democrats.

Not only will Donald and the GOP have to spend time and money chasing after the 'battleground' states, but they'll now have to defend several red states.

Donald's Non-Hispanic White Problem

The Census has shown that the non-Hispanic White population is shrinking as a percentage of the total population. The US average is roughly 75%. Donald's red state problem coincides with states with lower than average non-Hispanic White percentages. By solely chasing the non-Hispanic White population, Donald has aligned himself with a losing tactic.

In Arizona, Georgia, South Carolina, and Mississippi, the most recent polls (some are months old) show that the two are in a statistical tie. Considering that the national polls have actually improved for Hillary in the week after the convention, it seems that her bounce is no mere bounce, and may be very representative of the mood of much of the country, including many red states.

And therein lies the three problems with Donald's efforts to make this a race. Under the rosiest of scenarios, he can't win because durable poll numbers show that he's too far behind in Bush's 2000 race. In the worst-case scenario that is slowly gaining ground, we're talking a massive blowout, northward of 370 electoral college votes.

5 Thoughts for August 5, 2016

1. Moby Ambient: I've ensconced myself in Moby's release of free Long Ambient tunes. It's something along the lines of SOMA FM's Drone Zone, but far better. I've been listening to it (instead of classical) when I'm going to sleep, reading, or thinking.
2. Lessons From Polls: Of the many things I've learned from tracking polls this year, the one that stands out the most, is that most people are unwilling to break through their cognitive bias. For instance, Donald, no matter how much he lies, insults or acts like a fool, will always have the support of at least 68% of Republicans -- an enduring floor going back through last September's polls. I have this theory that, like the sunken costs fallacy, people who've metaphorically invested in their cognitive bias, have difficulty pulling out, particularly the deeper they've invested into their bias. You might think that this 68% floor is a recent thing, but it isn't; despite all of his stupidity this past week, his current range of GOP support is between 78% - 89%. Therefore, on top of those with deep cognitive bias, we're also seeing a cultural war with the flocking of white blue collar men to the GOP even while everyone else is fleeing it.
3. NOlympics: I'm not watching a single minute of the Olympics; I didn't even realize they were tonight, until just yesterday when the local NBC news station kept talking about it. My decision is based on three principles: (1) International sports is no longer about the sport but about the money that can be made off the athletes, and as such has become rife with corruption as decisions to award host cities is based on money; (2) The air is dirty, the water if filthy, and Dengue Fever is endemic to the region, nonetheless the IOC awarded Rio the Olympics; (3) There is rampant cheating and the IOC is deliberately looking the other way, so long as the money keeps pouring in. The Olympics is a corporate whore whose concerns over sponsorship outweigh the rights and welfare of athletes and spectators.
4. Donald's Economic Advisor Team: 13 white men. This is basically a reflection of the singular demographic where he's winning. If you asked Donald, he'd probably tell you that his all-white economic team is proof that he's color blind. The cold, hard reality is, there probably aren't many people out there willing to stick their necks out for Donald at this point, with his rapidly sinking numbers.
5. Portland Homeless Camping: So the Mayor finally changed his tune and realized that his plan last year to allow homeless people to camp on public streets was a complete failure. Immediately, one could see the difference, but there was a catch: Springwater Corridor. Sure, the homeless encampments around the city have disappeared, but they've gone to Springwater Corridor where the Mayor has given them a reprieve until next month. That resulted in the Hood to Coast to change a part of the route to avoid the worst of the Springwater Corridor. You know, the county has massive parcels of land for greenspace; why not allow them to camp at select parks until they can figure out how to build enough shelter beds?

When you get it.

djt