5 Thoughts on Politics, June 17, 2016

1. 32%: Continuing with my running theory of Donald's candidacy (and how to defeat it), his current favorability ratings are roughly in line with the limitations of his base, extended out to the overall population. That is to say, his core support comes from the fringe of one standard deviation (~34%) from both directions (~68%), leaving him with roughly a 32% base. Crossover comes from people who reluctantly support him for purely political reasons -- being of the same party.
2. No money, mo problems: Donald has practically no fundraising infrastructure, and thus, has been left nearly penniless until after the convention, at which point he will be able to tap GOP money as the official nominee. Importantly, his lean on the media to give him free air time has backfired as the political coverage -- as it is wont to do -- has been negative. For one whole month going forward, the only people with money are the SuperPACs, but there doesn't seem to be much love for Donald. 
3. The sound of silence: After Donald's tweetstorm and an eruption of anti-Muslim rants following the Orlando massacre, you could hear a pin drop when it came to a defense of Donald. And he's not going to change. No matter how many times you tell him to stick to the teleprompter, Donald lacks the discipline to exercise self-control over the long haul. It's not a 100% guarantee that he'll make it out of the convention as the nominee, but if he does, he'll completely bomb at the presidential debates because, again, 32% -- that's the only group that'll accept his antics.
4. The conscience struggle: Right now on both sides of the aisle there is a struggle of conscience on whether or not to support the presumptive nominee. On the left the threat of Donald as president weighs against the acceptability of Hillary's center-left positions. On the right, it's a balance of party fidelity or party death, ironically, because the GOP demanded party fidelity of Donald, early in the debate season. 
5. Berning Man: I'm no expert in political matters, but it seems to me that Bernie Sanders has flopped (so far) in his attempt to leverage his popularity to do something. He knew for weeks that he was going to end with a deficit of pledged delegates and wouldn't be able to flip super delegates, so he should have been preparing to transition his campaign into a bigger movement on the first day after the primary season ended. Instead, we got a mixed message about his future goals centered around changing the party's structure rather than a grassroots push to build support for his ideas. This is why I didn't vote for the guy. He has these great, grand (sometimes fantastical) ideas, but they simply remain that -- ideas -- and nothing more. Getting rid of Debbie Wasserman-Schultz and eliminating the super delegates does nothing to bolster liberalism; it merely rebalances power of the party. Tactically, his campaign is kaput.