Monday, March 3, 2014

On second thought, Russia already screwed itself.

The panic has set in, in Russian markets:
  • The Russian Central Bank raised its interest rate from 5.5% to 7.0%;
  • The Moscow Stock Exchange dropped rapidly, currently down over 12%;
  • The Ruble sank by nearly 2% since the close of markets, last Friday.
Russian GDP had already been slowing; with the markets suddenly shrinking and people pulling money out of Russia, it seems a good bet that Russia could be knocking on the door of a recession.

Maybe a substantial, widespread and coordinated economic sanction that was delivered immediately, could trigger a big enough collapse to get Russia to rethink its strategy.  Of course, Secretary Kerry outlined a few more extreme responses including the seizure of Russian business assets and the ejection of Russia from the G8.

But I'm still of the mindset that such actions tend to build up Nationalism and turn a nation inward and more independent, even more belligerent with a bunker mentality.

I'm curious to see how China votes on any UN Security Council vote on the invasion of Ukrainian land.  China isn't too keen on the idea of supporting the foreign invasion of sovereign lands, so they might abstain from a vote.  But doing so sends a strong message to Russia.

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