Let's Talk About the n-Coronavirus-2019 in China

China is lying. Maybe not intentionally, but we can tell that they're vastly underreporting the number of people infected by n-CoV-2019.

In Wuhan, video footage of people desperately seeking help was widespread on social media. Some nurses and doctors were reported to be suffering emotional breakdowns in hospital consulting rooms while outpatients crowd corridors with some pictured lying on the floor. 

More than 20 hospitals in Wuhan have posted statements pleading for aid from various sectors as there has been a shortage of masks, latex gloves, protective goggles and surgical gowns. -- Politico

From that Politico (SCMP) and from WHO, there are 39 deaths reported with 572 confirmed cases in Wuhan city. That's only 29 patients (572 confirmed cases / 20 hospitals = 29) per hospital. That's not a case where an overwhelming epidemic has forced outpatients to lie on the floor. It is the first indicator, however, that the number of infected is being vastly underreported.

The other indicator that this is underreported is the number of deaths. Under those numbers, the mortality rate is nearly 7% (39 deaths / 572 cases = 6.8%). For comparison, the Spanish Flu's mortality rate was 2.3%.

If we calculate backwards assuming Spanish Flu mortality rate, we get nearly 1700 (39 deaths / 0.023 = 1693 cases).

Online, video reports from inside Wuhan suggests 3x higher number of people sick. 1700 is completely in line with that (572 * 3 = 1716).

Imagine therefore, if this is on the scale of the Spanish Flu, shit's gonna get real bad real soon.