Monday, May 2, 2016

4 (Quick) Additional Thoughts on the Sanders Campaign

  1. Voter turnout: Everyone knows that when turnout is high, Sanders wins, right? Wrong. It's exactly the opposite. Of the 17 states Sanders has won, 12 of them have the lowest voter turnouts among the 40 states that have already voted. The mean and median turnout rates for states where he's won is lower than that of Clinton's.
  2. Closed / Open Contests: Everyone also knows that Sanders wins when the contest is open, right? Wrong. He's won 39% of open contests and 40% of closed ones.
  3. The Undemocratic Winner: There's nothing democratic about caucuses. They have the lowest turnouts during the primary season. In Minnesota, you don't even need to be registered to vote in order to participate in the Democratic Caucus and turnout is still low! In Wyoming, there are 41,314 registered Democrats, but only 280 votes cast in their caucuses, which is just a 0.68% participation rate. That's not something to be proud of. Sanders has won 11 out of 13 caucuses, making him the Undemocratic Winner of 2016. These state parties need to end the undemocratic caucus process.
  4. Bad Math Sanders: Another variation of the Sanders campaign rhetoric on super delegates, is that he should take all of the super delegates in states where he's won. Yet, he's primarily won in small states and when you tally up the numbers, he still loses! Apparently they've cut back so much staff, no one is vetting these arguments before they're made public. Every time he falls short of the margin he needs to win by, the margin of the remaining states increases, making his math even more ridiculous.

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