Ben Carson didn't win the debate.
He won the Guy-You-Hate-Least Award and the Guy-Who-Says-All-The-Right-Things Award, but his entire demeanor is that of someone who doesn't actually think he'll win. I challenge you to find a photo of the debate where Carson is not looking more like a wallflower than the guy who wants all the attention on him. He couldn't adequately explain why he made gaffes in the past, reinforcing the sense that he really isn't prepared to enter politics.
Rand Paul didn't win the debate.
Either he got the memo but ignored it, or he didn't get the memo. The candidates were supposed to avoid attacking Trump (minimizing Trump's ability to become the center of attention) but Paul decided that to get out of the second tier, he had to stick out. It didn't work, and Trump simply brushed him off. However it doesn't mean that he's out of the competition -- he's staked out a libertarian position that is in stark contrast with everyone else, guaranteeing him a loyal base.
Ted Cruz didn't win the debate.
A couple of times, he got himself tongue-tied -- this from a guy who was supposedly a masterful debate team member in college -- and looked unprepared to debate the other candidates. If the debate were a Shakespearean play, Cruz delivered his soliloquy and not many people seemed to care. He'll be out sooner than later.
Chris Christie didn't win the debate.
9/11, 9/11, 9/11. A confrontation he had with Rand Paul led right back to 9/11. 9/11, 9/11, 9/11. He was feisty when given the chance to speak, but was low on substance. Otherwise, he remained quiet.
Mike Huckabee didn't win the debate.
Having failed to gain the nomination in 2008, Huckabee has changed course. Do you remember that Life Cereal commercial where the two boys say, "Let's get Mikey! He won't eat, it -- he hates everything!" Mike Huckabee hates everything but unlike Mikey, isn't very likeable. So his tactic in 2015 is to pretend that he's in the big tent crowd, and trying to get likes on his social page.
John Kasich didn't win the debate.
With a home town crowd Kasich got loud ovations and cheers, but he did the worst thing you could possibly do in a debate, and that is to come off looking and sounding like he was kissing the rectal exit of the leading candidate. He did manage to highlight that he was more of a mainstream conservative cohort of Walker and Bush, and maybe that gives his candidacy some cred in the eyes of GOP voters, but he did not fit in with the tone of the night: Testosterone.
Jeb Bush didn't win the debate.
He didn't set himself apart from the rest of the field, and most certainly couldn't distinguish himself from the rest of the mainstream conservative crowd. We know this to be the case, because his campaign briefly posted the talking points against Rubio and Walker, and he did not cover half of the attack points that were posted. The Jeb! campaign strategy is very simple: Wait out everyone else with that massive war chest. In fact, during the debate he willingly acquiesced to waiting for his turn. For now, they don't see Trump as a viable candidate, but if they continue to ignore Trump, they risk falling by the wayside, no matter how large that war chest is.
Scott Walker didn't win the debate.
He certainly didn't hurt his chances with mainstream conservatives as he focused mostly on attacking Hillary Clinton and sounded like a conservative, but Walker's problem was that every point he made about his achievements, was quickly rebuffed by Jeb!. And following the debate, fact checkers had a field day with his claims. As Trump previously noted, Walker's economic record is terrible, making him extremely vulnerable to attack as time passes.
Marco Rubio didn't win the debate.
He was ready to debate, aggressive and confident, attempting to get his message out in full, at every opportunity afforded to him. But he was also caught lying, and in fact made it a point to double down on his lie, in front of the crowd. Then, he made the worst gaffe of all: Admitting that Clinton would win the presidency based on her resume. It was meant to be an attack on her lengthy time in government, but instead he delivered the perfect sound bite for the DNC and Hillary.
Trump won the debate.
Starting with the very first question of the debate, pundits believe that Fox News hammered Trump (and they did) but there are three things wrong with what Fox News did. First, they made the debate all about Trump, which is a tacit acknowledgement of his sudden, meteoric rise in the polls and the threat he presents in taking over the GOP nomination process. Second, they attacked Trump for holding an opinion, which is tantamount to delivering judgment on his opinions without actually conducting a debate. Third, that first question of the debate -- whether he would pledge support for the eventual GOP nominee -- backfired by highlighting how he stands apart from politics and the political parties, two things that Americans hate most.
Making Trump the center of the debate, made people aware of his importance. While certainly Fox News' intent was to highlight Trump's boorish comments and opinions, what they did was put their own prejudices on the line for far-right conservatives to see, while also giving Trump the greatest leeway to turn the debate into a reality-TV show. What we saw wasn't a flustered, defensive Trump, but a combative NY native -- people often confuse combativeness for defensiveness. Do you know who the ultra-right conservative talk show hosts are defending, today? Not Megyn Kelly.
So what's the worst thing you could do, to a person who has become the flag-bearer of people who believe in the right to a contorted freedom of speech, where speech is inconsequential (often referred to as non-PC speech)? Attack him or her with rhetorical questions on his or her opinions. That is exactly what the Fox News moderators did to Trump. They attacked him with rhetorical questions -- questions that are functionally statements, and as such, carry no expectations of a rational answer -- which only bolstered his support.
I've observed pundits judge how Trump's failure to pledge support to the eventual GOP nominee means that he's maxed out his support from the GOP, but that's not what he's done. What some interpret as petulance can also be viewed as his independence from acting like a lemming. The same folks who support Ted Cruz, might be wondering why Ted Cruz failed to stick his hand up and stick to his principles, despite having confronted Mitch McConnell for failure to stand on principles, two weeks ago. The same goes for Rand Paul's supporters, who thought that his libertarian values were absolute. These people have a name: Tea Party.
At every attempt to attack Trump, he deflected the question by highlighting his right to hold an opinion, no matter how distasteful it was -- something that's been at the core of his candidacy all along. An attempt to demonstrate that Trump wasn't a faithful Republican, ended up showing that Trump wasn't going to kow tow to party politics, but rather, make his determinations based on his principles.
This is why he won the debate. And you can blame Fox News for that.
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