Saturday, March 19, 2016

Cherry blossoms at night.

When you want to take photos without people, your best bet is long exposure. In my case, I went out in the middle of the night (morning) to take some photos of the cherry blossoms on the waterfront in Old Town, next to the Japanese-American Historical Plaza.

I screwed up though, as I only brought one lens with me, and unbeknownst to me my battery was low. Also, my wireless remote was being fussy. I took just a handful of photos at ~ 1 minute exposures at F4.

If I had planned it slightly better, I would have used the smallest aperture to get full-depth focused photos, but doing so would have required even longer exposures and a remote that wasn't fussy.



Wednesday, March 2, 2016

5 Musings on the 2016 primary elections

Donald Drumpf

Leave it to a television comedian to establish the meme that could finally establish an attack on Donald Trump: #MakeDonaldDrumpfAgain.



It is so good of a meme, I think it could stick, or rather, it should stick. Henceforth I'm only referencing him as Drumpf; I can think of no better meme for the world's best huckster.

Hillary Clinton will be the Democratic nominee

I've been saying for a long time now, that Hillary is going to be the nominee. Two weeks ago on the message boards I predicted that Super Tuesday would result in a 200+ delegate gap (not including the super delegates) with Bernie Sanders, and by April it'd turn into a 500+ delegate gap. At 191 I was close but short of my prediction.

It hasn't changed the outcome that I predicted nearly a month ago, that before the end of April Sanders will have left the race. If you split down the middle the delegates up for grabs from today through the end of April, Hillary wins. But if you apply the current poll numbers to those delegates, she wins sooner. Her campaign has made sure that she's built commanding leads in the most populous states to more than cancel out any wins in the smaller ones.

Bernie Sanders will Bern out

Despite the money he's brought in and the claim from his campaign that he'll fight all the way to the convention, once Hillary gains enough delegates to win the nomination, the race is over and everyone will start tuning him out, including the press.

Are you really going to take time off to volunteer for a campaign that has already lost its race? I don't think so. Are you really going to donate money to a campaign that has already lost? Doubt it.

His choices are to either get shrill to regain the attention of the press and the public, or to take an agreement with the DNC to have his proposals for inclusion in the party's platform up for a vote at the convention and a prime-time speaking slot at the convention, in return for suspending his campaign and instead campaigning for Hillary. When it could have mattered most, he didn't go shrill, so it seems extremely unlikely that he'll do so when there's nothing at stake. Given the opportunity for inclusion into the DNC platform, I think he'll take it.

The alternating GOP Panic Mode

To the dismay of many in the GOP, it was starting to look like Donald Drumpf was going to be their nominee and they went into full panic. Some, like Jeff Sessions and Chris Christie, turned into opportunists and flip-flopped from public outrage for Drumpf to public support. Mitch McConnell's got a plan to keep Drumpf away from being the nominee. With each exhortation of condemnation of Drumpf, Republican politicians face their own Chris Christie hypocritical moment.

As soon as Jeb! left the race the establishment seized on Marco Rubio as their savior. But in Super Tuesday it was Ted Cruz who gained tremendous ground and is now halfway between Rubio and Drumpf in total delegates. If you combine Cruz's and Rubio's delegates, the anti-Drumpf would be ahead of Drumpf.

This of course now has the party in the opposite panic mode: Having to support the most hated GOP senator in the US Senate.

This vile hatred of Ted is part of why some Republican politicians have flocked to Drumpf -- they see Drumpf as far more pragmatic than Cruz, as witnessed from Cruz's gov't shutdown. In essence, Republican politicians are being forced to choose between the lesser of two hated people.

Democrats are fueling Drumpf

A curious thing happened on Super Tuesday: Drumpf nearly broke the 50% ceiling he needed to avoid a contested convention, in the state of Massachusetts. He ended up with 49.3% of the primary votes, which would mark the first time he truly broke through and received mainstream support. So I took a closer look at what happened in Massachusetts and it's hysterically funny what occurred.

On Super Tuesday there were 468K registered Republicans in Massachusetts and 631K ballots cast in the GOP Primary. In 2012 there were 448K registered Republicans and 370K ballots cast. In Massachusetts, if you haven't selected a party, you're able to participate in any primary (you can only vote once).

Now, some folks will take to the media airwaves to proclaim that the GOP has boosted its voter participation rate and that it bodes well for the general, but it's complete manure. Massachusetts is a liberal state where Democrats + Leaners outnumber Republicans + Leaners by the widest margin in the country.

In fact, the turnout (1.2M) for the Democratic race was roughly the same as it was in 2008 (1.2M) -- a historical high for Massachusetts Democratic Primary. Besides, 2012 should have had a higher GOP Primary turnout, given Mitt Romney's home field advantage and broad in-state support from all spectrum of politics, but the total number of ballots cast, were short of the total number of registered GOP.

In other words, Democrats + Leaners voted to put Drumpf on the GOP ticket. This being the bluest of blue states and given that Obama handily beat Romney in 2012, those votes were not in support of Drumpf, so much as to ensure that November will be a disaster for the GOP. Everyone gets it except for the diehard Drumpf supporters, and that's what makes this hysterically funny!