Recent Oregon Polling

Some thoughts about a recent Oregon poll from Clout Research: They're wrong.

The demographics according to their poll:
Democrats = 40.5%
Republicans = 32.4%
Independent = 27.1%

But according to the Oregon SoS' June 2016 party registrations:
Democrats = 41.1%
Republicans = 29.7%
Independent (other) = 29.2%

Why would these differences matter?

In 2008 there was a very steep rise in Democratic registrations leading to an 11 point gap in registrations between Democrats and Republicans. As you may recall, Obama blew out McCain by 16 points.

A very similar thing is occurring in 2016. As of June, there is an 11 point gap between registered Democrats and Republicans, and while a chunk of that came from Bernie Sanders supporters who rushed to get into the Democratic Party to vote in the primary and will likely get out, the long-term trend has been the maintenance of a wide gap between registered Democrats and Republicans.

Clout Research's numbers are clearly biased against Democrats, understating the support of Democratic candidates in the state. (I can't break down the implied real numbers as they didn't break out crosstabs at the political party level.) If you don't believe me that Clout Research is biased towards Republicans, consider that 538 rates them a C- with a simple average error of 9.0 points out of 9 polls analyzed, calling just 33% of those races correctly.

Day 4 of DNC Convention In 4 Bullet Points

• Stronger Together: The absolutely most moving message was given by Khizr Khan, father of fallen American soldier, Capt. Humayun Khan. He eloquently spoke about how his son could not have served this country had Donald blocked Muslims from entering this country, enlightening the love of this country foreigners have, and who wish to participate in our democracy. It was the theme carried through the entire night, from generals talking about a stronger country when we're together, or the first transgender person to speak at a convention, Sarah McBride speaking about the love of inclusion, capped by Hillary's talk about her long-held belief that it 'takes a village'.
  
  
• Republicans for Hillary: Of course! The DNC invited various Republicans to speak out against Donald and in support of Hillary, that voting for Hillary is a vote not for a Democrat but a vote for America's future. We already know of many Republicans voting for Hillary, so it's no surprise that they're easy to find to speak at the DNC Convention.
• Star Power and Full Arena: When there is enthusiasm, a convention has no trouble grabbing stars and filling the seats. That's what we saw all four days of the DNC Convention. Tonight there was Carole King, Sheila E, and Katy Perry. You could not keep Democratic political stars away from the convention as they all lined up to offer their support. What a contrast to the RNC Convention where it would be generous to call their lineup the 'B' list.
• Year of the Woman: 1992 was called Year of the Woman. Officially, 2016 is YotW. The final day of the DNC Convention included women leaders to make the case that this is the true Year of the Woman. You would be hard-pressed not to see how this wasn't the YotW, with superstars like Liz Warren, Tammy Duckworth and Kristen Gillibrand getting prime speaking roles, and the expected inclusion this year of the next national superstars like Kamala Harris.

Day 3 of DNC Convention In 5 Bullet Points

1. Enter The Ruckus: Many groups attempted to disrupt various speeches by chanting. They were met with chants of, "USA!" This was much more disruptive than the previous two days, but, as you might expect, the result is greater unity against disruptions. 
2. Gun Violence: It's a major theme tonight, from survivor after survivor coming up to talk about the value of life and the importance of reducing gun violence. The inspirational highlight was Gabby Giffords, fighting through the difficulties, speaking to the arena.
3. Working Class: As working class hero, Joe Biden got serious and ran down the litany of truths about Donald, but most of all, explained that Donald does not care about the working class. When he said that Donald has no clue, the arena picked up on that and started chanting, "Not a clue!"
4. Competencies: Michael Bloomberg delivered a fine speech, drawing distinctions to support the "sane and competent" candidate over the reality-TV candidacy of Donald, while espousing Americans to vote for Hillary not because they're Democrats, but for love of country. In the business world, he outright stated that Donald was a con who stole, lied and cheated people out of money to make his own.
5. The Audacity of Hope: Barack Obama, battling Michelle Obama for the best speech of the convention, spoke eloquently to both sides of the aisle by pushing the spirit and values of America, pointing to 'we' the people who do the hard work, in hopes for a better future, contrasting that dark, hate and terror filled world where only Donald says he could rescue us. It was the no-dry-eyes speech of the night.

Day 2 of DNC Convention In 5 Bullet Points

Donald promised a blockbuster convention show, instead, he delivered a dud. By contrast, the DNC has quietly produced an amazing convention so far. You don't get to escape a night without tears of inspiration, love, and a shared sense of, 'we will get this done'.

1. Roll Call: Whereas the RNC created obscure rules to restrict voting during roll call, the DNC maintained standard traditions and gave delegates (states) the right to vote in whatever way they so chose, as highlighted by those who preferred to abstain from casting their vote. 
2. Party Unity: The campaigns of Hillary and Bernie came up with a brilliant political move overnight. Vermont deferred its votes to the end of roll call, to allow Bernie Sanders to speak at the end:
   
   
3. The Stars Keep Coming Out: Yesterday it was Demi Lovato and Paul Simon singing. Today, one of my personal favorite R&B newcomers, Andra Day, delivered her inspirational, "Rise Up", and later, Alicia Keys sung, "Superwoman". This is very unlike any previous convention. Don't believe me? Watch the montage:
   
   
4. The Party of Inclusion, Continued: Today, we were reminded that police officers are also Democrats, and that Black Lives Matter are also Democrats, and that even those who weren't Democrats were also welcome.
5. "One Is Real, The Other Is Made Up": Bill Clinton delivered. He made the case of the candidate who spent her whole life helping those who needed help, compared to the candidate who's in it for himself and has never shown an ability to stand up for others. This is the message going forward, without a doubt.

Day 1 of DNC Convention In 6 Bullet Points

1. Party Unity: Bernie Sanders supporters Senator Jeff Merkley, Representative Keith Ellison, and Sarah Silverman all spoke out for the need to come together, and their own reasons why they're supporting Hillary. Bernie Sanders, as closer, said, "Hillary Clinton must become the next President of the United States." 
2. A Party of Inclusion and Hillary The Fighter: Speaker after speaker, whether Jason Collins, the first openly gay NBA player, or cerebral palsy sufferer Anastasia Somoza, or little Karla Ortiz, who fears that she'll be separated from her parents via deportation, spoke about how Hillary has personally invested in them and supported them. 
3. A Party of Shared Values: As Liz Warren said, "Equal means equal." As Keith Ellison explained, we all believe in climate change, in the rights of women, in support of children, and the rights of all to marry. As Sanders noted, the strength of the Democratic Party is in its diversity -- it makes us all better people and our nation stronger.
4. Future Stars of the Democratic Party: Who are the future superstars of the Democratic Party? Cory Booker, Liz Warren and Michelle Obama offered such moving prose, you could see the tears in the eyes of many, followed with a vision of hope for a bright future. Sanders was spectacular, balancing the needs of his supporters with the need to support Hillary. But wow, Michelle Obama surely could have her own political career!
5. Bernie's World: Not only did Bernie receive 100% more and louder applause than Donald, he brought the house down. He spoke about the progressive values that he and Hillary shared, the plans they've made together to shape the DNC platform, and the importance of his movement for the future of America.
6. The Antidote To The RNC Convention: In a single day the DNC Convention completely flattened the fear, anger, and dystopian world view that was the RNC. More loving tears from inspiration were shed in one day at the DNC Convention than were shed in four days of the RNC Convention. 

Jon Stewart and his epic take down of conservatives

Day 4 of RNC Convention, The Wheels Come Off.

• With exception of Ivanka Trump and Thomas Barrack, everyone else yelled, screamed, projected shrill anger. It wasn't about 'Make America One'; it was about Anger, Fear, Loathing, and Revenge for the Fallen. The night was capped by Donald yelling for about 1 1/2 hours about Anger, Fear, Loathing, and Revenge for the Fallen.
• Yesterday he spooked Europe and Asia, and tonight he doubled down by telling our friends that America is going to harken back to 'America First' and the pre-WWII isolationist. It is eerily spooky, if you know a little bit about US history, as Donald looks and sounds a lot like Herbert Hoover:
• Rich Republican guy who had never previously held elected office;
• Ran on the belief that government was inefficient and wasteful;
• His appeal to Southern Whites resulted in Black Americans bolting to the Democratic Party;
• The moment he was elected, he pulled back American military to the US;
• Despite our friends waging war, he kept the US on the sidelines;
• He signed the Hawley-Smoot Tariff Act, effectively slashing foreign trade and making goods more expensive.
• Nearly all of the music played during the convention, came from British artists, including The Rolling Stones, The Clash, Queen, and Elton John. No kidding. Make America Great Again, my ass.

Day 3 of RNC Convention in 4 bullet points

This disaster keeps growing, and I'm being polite. Conservative bloggers are going harsh on what's happening. The implosion is happening, right now.

• It was supposed to be about 'Make America One Again'. Instead, it was 'Trumpworld or bust', again, focused more on Hillary than on Donald.
• If there was any doubt that the GOP is no longer the GOP, all you had to do was watch Ted Cruz speak. He spoke about traditional GOP values, and he got booed. He was the only guy who talked directly to the theme of 'Make America One Again', about the rights of everyone, whether gay, straight, black, white, rich or poor, and he got booed! The GOP is now the White Power Party, looking to consolidate its power. If you had any doubt, when Cruz mentioned Alton Sterling, the convention seemed either not to care or know about Sterling, as if his life was irrelevant. They hated Ted Cruz so much, his wife had to be escorted out by security. 
• The highlight was supposed to be Mike Pence. The RNC didn't bother producing videos to introduce him to America; accordingly, he spent a lot of time talking about himself. Weird, right? Of all the speakers, he probably did the best job of talking up Donald and delivered where others failed. But this Donald's campaign, and as such...
• Donald continued to distract away from his own convention. He told the media in interviews in Cleveland that, contrary to NATO's core, he would require a litmus test on whether or not to come to another member's defense; no point to having NATO, then, as Russia can simply strategically attack lesser NATO countries as it sees fit while Nero fiddles.

Day 2 of GOP Convention, in 5 bullet points

Tonight, it seems that nothing went as planned. In other words, it sure looked a lot like a Donald J Trump convention. No big gaffes like last night's plagiarism + rickroll, but it was nonetheless probably a disaster when measured against the RNC's goals.

• The first half of the day was delegate counting day, leading to the official party nomination. Utah and Alaska had contentious moments when the RNC chair overruled Utah's chair who'd announced 40 delegates for Cruz, while Alaska called for a recount of its votes as had been announced by the RNC chair, only to have its votes switched all to Donald. Ohio was mad as hell yesterday; will Ohio, Utah and Alaska Republicans choose to stay at home?
• Just how unpopular is the RNC Establishment? Mitch McConnell got boos all three times his name was mentioned. His own speech drew very few cheers, even as he attacked Hillary and Obama. When Reince Priebus spoke to the crowd about the rules, he pretty much was ignored.
• It was supposed to be about 'Make America Work Again', but rather than making the case for GOP policies, most of the speakers talked either about their personal priorities or about Hillary. Donald's name was barely mentioned. 
• Chris Christie talked about how he'd prosecute Hillary if he's made Attorney General;
• Ben Carson tried to link Saul Alinsky and Lucifer to Hillary;
• Mike Mukasey talked about Hillary's crimes (which by the way, maybe people forgot that AG Mukasey defended the use of waterboarding).
• Thus, instead of establishing the case for Donald through the theme of, 'Make America Work Again', the clear message from the Republican Party was, 'You have to pick our guy because Hillary'. That's an attempt to solidify the base as opposed to expanding the base. The GOP are in big trouble and their actions reflect so.
• The RNC really didn't want the press to comment on tonight's events. They turned up the volume of music between speakers so high, that all of the news outlets had difficulty hearing each other and speaking.

Day 1 of GOP Convention, in 6 bullet points

A quick summary of the GOP Convention's day 1:

• Bitter parents of dead people, regardless of culpability, blame Democrats for their deaths (one even blamed Democrats for a death that occurred when George W Bush was President);
• Had laws been written to the liking of Republicans and thus carried out, we would have stopped terrorism and murders in the US (apparently we can simply ignore that the two worst terrorist attacks since WW-II were under Ronald Reagan and George W Bush);
• Republicans believe Hillary killed four Americans in Benghazi, Libya (despite the conclusion of 7 partisan investigations that state otherwise);
• The Establishment wasn't very popular, made evident when Mitch McConnell's name drew boos and the fact that they had to do two voice votes on rules for the 2020 primary season;
• When the convention opened, the arena was 1/4 filled; at its peak, the arena was slightly more than 2/3rds full (which could only be discerned if the camera was trained away from the main floor area, and the chanting was weaker than anything heard during a basketball game at the Quicken Loans Arena;
• Donald, calling into Fox News (O'Reilly), essentially interrupted his convention to speak about himself -- that's soooo Donald.

I didn't dare watch the entire day, of course, as much of the stuff that goes on during the day is a waste of eyeballs. The primetime stuff is weakly usable to help understand the strategy of the GOP. Weak on star power (as most of them have declined to participate), the GOP have decided to attempt to use (relatively) unknown people as a means to relate average Americans as disenchanted with Democrats. Of course, that seems odd given that Republicans have controlled Congress and the White House far longer than Democrats, effecting their brand of governance and intransigence over those short periods of Democratic control.

---

ADD: The news is blowing up (and the social media mockery pouring in) on Melania Trump's speech because of #rickroll and #plagiarism. Ouch.

A reminder why Donald is going to lose

According to the most recent US Census estimate (July 2015), the demographics of the US are as follows:

• Non-Hispanic White = 61.6%
• Hispanic White = 15.5%
• Black / African-American = 13.3%
• Asians, Native Hawaiian, Pacific Islanders = 5.8%
• Males, Non-Hispanic White = 30.4%

Assuming you want to win a national election, winning the non-Hispanic White male vote at the expense of all the other groups, is probably not the way to go. 

If 100% of non-Hispanic White males voted for you, your opponent would merely need to win 72% of the remaining demographics. The odds of you winning 100% of your demographic compared to your opponent winning 72% are conversely lower than your opponent's.

Now, consider that your opponent has already locked in at least 90% of the Black / African-American vote (in reality it's closer to 99%), that leaves your opponent with having to win just 68% of the remaining demographics to beat you. Your odds of winning are even lower than you initially hoped for.

In the real world, you're not getting anything close to the 100% of the non-Hispanic White male vote; instead, it's closer to 65%. This vastly lowers your odds of winning.

Now, imagine what happens when polls continually oversample your sole demographic -- non-Hispanic White males -- and you're still losing.

And folks, that's why Donald is going to lose.

Figured out what was bugging my Nexus 5.

For the past 10 months, my phone would suddenly shut down when I was taking a photo, most frequently when I was listening to music at the same time. It would then fail to restart unless plugged into a power source. I figured it could be a corrupt memory block or apps that were interfering with each other's memory. Short of resetting to factory, I simply started carrying a pocket-sized battery.

I finally solved the problem last week.

There wasn't enough memory available on the phone. Although there was 6GB of space available, the OS was apparently using it as RAM, and the smaller it got, the more frequent the problem. I removed over 8GB of older photos, archived into my server, and now the problem has completely disappeared.

I love my phone, so much that I can easily see myself using it for another year or more, buying additional batteries along the way. Now that I know what was causing my phone to shut down, I think I'll keep my phone through the rest of this year, at least.

The most amazing thing I saw yesterday.

No photo, sorry. Yesterday, while waiting outside of Little Big Burger in South Waterfront, I saw this older man walk past me. He was fitted with two prosthetic legs, used a cane as a crutch in one arm to walk, with a walking cane (for the blind) in the other.

As he strolled past me towards the waterfront, I could think of just one thing: This guy is kickass awesome.

No, Hillary and Donald aren't tied

The CBS / NYT poll released today is getting a ton of media because it says that Hillary and Donald are tied nationally. Of course, I had to dig into the numbers to figure out what was going on. You probably already know that, after adjusting the numbers to reflect the true nature of party affiliations in the US, the CBS / NYT is misrepresenting reality.

It turns out that their polling continually overrepresents 'independent' respondents. We know from Gallup that when you push self-identified independents to identify a party they most frequently align themselves with, most of them will pick one of the two parties. As such, Gallup shows that registered voters across the US are roughly aligned 48% Democrats + Leaners and 42% Republican + Leaners, with the rest, 10%, truly unaligned (according to the most recent Gallup data, dated June 14 - 23).

If you simply group all independents together, your data can be easily swayed by poor sampling of independents. For instance, if you oversampled the Pacific Northwest you'd likely get a vastly more liberal result than if you oversampled independents from the South. That is why applying leaners, matters.

July CBS / NYT poll, adjusted

The July CBS / NYT poll weighted respondents 27% Republican, 33% Democrat, 39% Independent. Applying Gallup's party affiliation from June 14 - 23 (D+L = 48%; R+L = 42%; I = 10%) to CBS / NYT weighted numbers, instead of the tied 40% - 40% poll, we get an implied poll showing Hillary up 42% - 38%.

June CBS poll, adjusted

It wasn't enough to analyze their July poll to understand what they did; if they had dramatically altered the weighting between June and July, it could be interpreted as an attempt at push-polling; they didn't. The June CBS poll weighted respondents 28% Republican, 35% Democrat, 37% Independent. Applying Gallup's party affiliation from June 1 - 5 (D+L = 48%; R+L = 41%; I = 11%) to CBS's weighted numbers, instead of the 39% - 32% poll favoring Hillary, we get an implied poll showing Hillary up 42% - 36%. This adjusted poll shows Hillary with an implied +6 point gap compared to CBS poll's +7 point gap.

So, after adjusting their polling, it turns out Hillary has a +4 point margin, slightly less than the +6 point margin in June. I suspect that, were I to go back and apply the nearest Gallup party affiliation data to every poll out there, we'd get something closer to uniform polling, all showing Hillary up against Donald.

No, the battleground polls aren't close

Today, the news media claimed that polling in three battleground states showed that Donald had either closed the gap or moved ahead of Clinton. This is incorrect. Let's take a look, shall we?

Florida
Quinnipiac's poll says Donald is up, 42% - 39%. Their poll was weighted 31% Republican, 29% Democrat, and 39% Independent / other. A look at Florida's most recent registration data (May 2016) shows that registrations break 36% Republican, 38% Democrats, and 26% unaffiliated / no preference. If you apply Quinnipiac's cross tab data to Florida's most recent registration data, Hillary remains on top, 44% - 43%.

Pennsylvania
Quinnipiac's poll says Donald is up 43% - 41%. Their poll was weighted 34% Republican, 35% Democrat, and 31% Independent / other. A look at Pennsylvania's most recent (July 11, 2016) shows that registrations break 38% Republican, 49% Democrat, 13% unaffiliated. If you apply Quinnipiac's cross tab data to Pennsylvania's most recent registration data, Hillary remains on top, 47% - 41%.

Ohio
Well, Ohio doesn't have breakdowns of voter registrations by party* so I can't really share with you how Quinnipiac's polling is wrong, but suffice to say, there is a trend to add too much weight towards Republicans.

Finally, Gallup's Party Affiliation tracker, well over a decade long, currently shows Democrats + Leaners at 48% and Republicans + Leaners at 42%, and if you've paid attention to my posts in the past, this tracker tells you a lot about the direction of the country and which party will win the White House. In 2004 the lead for party affiliation flipped nine times between that January and voting day; in 2008 Democrats + Leaners led all the way from August to voting day; in 2012 Democrats + Leaners led (or tied) all the way to voting day, for 13 months. This season, Democrats + Leaners have led since last September.

* -- A note to Ohio's SoS: You have a publicly available zipped file with the names, birthdate, party registration and mailing address of every registered voter. I stumbled upon it while trying to find aggregate registration data. You need to remove it, immediately!

Dallas 07-07-2016

TOLD YOU SO.

I was initially going to write a post about how the FBI's interview with Hillary indicated that she was in the clear. Briefly, the fact that her own lawyers allowed her to be interviewed without invoking the 5th Amendment right against self-incrimination, showed how confident they were that there was nothing untoward in her actions. But then, this morning the FBI completed their investigation and announced that they would not be recommending that charges be filed against Hillary.

TOLD YOU SO.

Microphone drop, walk away, right? Except, of course, I never did do a post with a full accounting on the email server issue. But, in online comment sections, as individual issues popped up, I did. Online, I...

• Posted a full explanation of the relevant parts of the US Code, and compared them to the known facts in the case;
• Highlighted how people conflate rules with laws, citing the DoD's own rules for handling classified information (and their penalties);
• Detailed how the burden of proof required, among other things, an understanding of the legal terms of criminal negligence and a person's state of mind;
• Wrote about how the media misunderstood what was being leaked to them, instead, choosing to misinterpret the information to imply nefarious or illegal actions;
• Pointed out the stark differences between General Petraeus' case and this one;
• Explained how 'attempted hacking' did not imply that the server was hacked, as many in the media had come to assume;
• Wrote about how Guccifer was bullshitting people when he said that he had hacked into Clinton's server, explaining why it was bullshit;
• Spoke about how hacking a server with possibly just one or two admin accounts, would be vastly more difficult than either commercial accounts or government email accounts;
• Explained why Brian Pagliano's invocation of the 5th Amendment and his deal with Justice to avoid prosecution, did not mean that Hillary did something wrong.

Anyone who is adamant that what she did was illegal, is full of shit even if they don't know shit. You can't argue with a person who is full of shit, because they'll just make shit up, then, unaware of what they're doing, will point to that pile of shit as supporting evidence of their bullshit. 

Really.