5 Thoughts for Augest 27, 2015

1. This has to be some sort of record. Hurricane Ignacio may approach near the Big Island on Monday, and Hurricane Jimena is following just about 4 days behind it. That's some 5 storms in just over a month that come within 1000 miles of Hawaii and whose effects are felt.
2. The 'trade Kam Chancellor' talk is heating up. Look at it this way: Trading him is going to result in huge returns -- at least a 1st-round pick for 2016 with a bunch of lower picks, or a mix of picks and a pretty good player. I think this coming weekend's preseason game makes all the difference: IF Shead and Bailey continue to show growth and perform at a high level, Carroll and Schneider will be inclined to go with them and trade Chancellor the following week. At USC, he was fun to watch because you knew he'd bring the boom, but that he was often in position to make that interception. His leaving early was a reaction to Sarkisian getting the job instead of Orgeron -- and it was an error -- but if he gets to start the regular season for Seattle, it'll all be worth it. Now that everyone knows he's going to start the game against SD, fans will be tuned in to see who he is.
3. For months Netflix has been bypassing every one of the DVDs in my queue that are on a short / long waiting list. So I gave them the middle finger and removed the half of my queue that didn't have a waiting period. Next Monday, we'll see what happens.
4. Three days after US stock markets tumbled and many people freaked out, the Dow Jones Industrials is now 1.18% higher than when it closed last Friday. That should validate my mocking of idiot conservatives who blamed Monday's plunge on Obama.
5. I've never experienced food poisoning the way others have described it. I've never had stuff coming out from both ends at the same time, ever, and I've never had bloody stool. I've never had a purge event last for more than a day. I'm thinking maybe people might want to eat my poop to populate their bodies with my gut bacteria -- I have an iron stomach. Heh.

+5 Quick Links

1. Ted Cruz' recent actions remind me of a Bunny Suicide.
2. Oscar Mayer recall: Turkey Bacon. I do not recall liking turkey bacon.
3. Sept 27 - Closest lunar perigee of 2015, and also lunar eclipse.
4. Sept 1 - NFL rosters cut to 75. GTK.
5. In China, anything can be faked, including Goldman Sachs.

5 Thoughts for August 25, 2015

1. Oil prices are now at about what they were at the bottom of the 2008-2009 global recession. Sadly, gas prices aren't. Is it price fixing in gasoline retail markets? The divergence is huge right now. Regardless, what this highlights is that NOW is the time to buy that hybrid or electric vehicle, and not when oil prices jump -- at that point you'll be competing on price for hybrids and electrics.
2. Right about now, do you suppose that USC AD Pat Haden is regretting hiring Steve Sarkisian over Ed Orgeron? Sark's in the middle of getting a divorce, sold his home, and apparently has an alcohol problem that he's going to seek help with. I suppose that if he wins and reaches the championship game, all is forgiven.
3. Something I didn't know: If you're a resident of Multnomah County, you can visit the Oregon Historical Society in downtown Portland for free. All these years and I haven't gone once -- I must rectify this.
4. A researcher tells us what we already knew: Search ranking can affect choices. In a behavioral paper, Robert Epstein shows that one could modify search rankings to change the outcomes of elections. But here's the rub: He argues that this is why Google's algorithms must be regulated, yet he doesn't quite seem to get that Google modifies its algorithms to minimize SEO (Search Engine Optimization / aka search engine rankings) manipulation. If you regulate algorithms the unintended consequence will be that the unregulated Super PACs will thus be able to have greater influence on search rankings, and election manipulation. Be careful of what you wish for, Robert Epstein. An amusing discovery somewhat buried in his research paper: Self-identified Moderate Republicans were the most easily influenced voters when it came to search ranking manipulation, while self-identified Democrats were among the least vulnerable.
5. My brother (in-law) sent me an email telling me that he discovered Chromecast, and was casting KODI (XBMC) to his TV via computer. I had this grin in my face as I read it, because I'd played around with Boxee (an HTPC front-end GUI similar to XBMC) some 7 years ago, and of course I've had my Chromecast for two years, now. With his config however, I would think that the Nexus Player would be better -- I should probably email him back explaining this.

+5 Quick Links

1. Still pissed at Bush. I offer retort via CeeLo, to Jeb's comment linking Anchor Babies and Asians.
2. Former Portland Archbishop Levada caught DUI while weaving in traffic, in Kona.
3. All about Deez Nuts. Seems to describe the 2016 GOP field.
4. Metromile did a study, using Google Auto's data, showing costs savings from self-driving.
5. Just in case you didn't know whose side Randy's Donuts was on.

5 Thoughts for August 24, 2015

1. Tebow did not look good at all. His throwing accuracy was off the charts bad, when scrambling. If you watch the video carefully, he went back to his old habit of drawing the ball down and back, instead of keeping it up and with a quick release that he had showed off earlier. He honestly showed good form in preseason week 1, so for Tebow to revert to old habits this quickly, I would be shocked if he plays QB in the NFL, which is to say, I would be shocked if Tebow remains with the Eagles.
2. This past weekend in Portland could be called the Great American Smokeout. The last time I'd seen this much smoke was back in Los Angeles in 1993. The only difference between then and now, was that back then, we were getting ash falling like snow -- I suspect if you're in the Gorge you might be seeing the same thing, however.
3. Republican politicians are blaming Obama for the stock market fall. Best dumb quote so far, comes from Mike Huckabee: "The chickens are now coming home to roost." He's Chicken Little come Christian Doomsayer. 
4. TD Kiko just keeps moving westward of the Hawaiian islands, and so far looks like it's going to steer completely away from them, which is remarkable because of how closely it was tracking to previous hurricanes. Whew!
5. When I was really young -- as in elementary school age -- my dad introduced me to Tommy Kono. I knew about him -- that he was a gold medal winner in the Olympics in weight lifting, but at the time I didn't realize just how prolific he was. I don't suppose too many people know who Tommy Kono is, but he was an elite athlete long before there were elite athletes. This popped into my head because today's Google Doodle is of Duke Kahanamoku (celebrating his birthday), and it feels like we should be celebrating Tommy Kono, once in a while, considering he's still alive.

+ 5 Quick Links

1. Blackberry Passport running Android -- Blackberry fans have never been happier.
2. Dismaland. All you need to know is that it's by Banksy.
3. Asshole racist says Anchor Babies term was meant for Asians, not Hispanics.
4. Ferguson, MO judge withdraws all arrest warrants prior to Dec 31, 2014. Huge.
5. Elon Musk's Hyperloop is gathering steam -- folks from Boeing, NASA working on it.

The smoke in Portland.

Makes for great sunrises and sunsets. This morning.

5 Thoughts for August 22, 2015

1. I'm looking at vacant lands for sale, and it just annoys me to no end, that brokers feel the need to tell you that you've got to do your own due diligence -- this is code for 'severe restrictions on what you can do with the land'. In some cases, the lot is too small to build on, based on its zoning; in other cases there are conservation limitations that raise the cost of doing any work on the site. The way I see it, if you know what the restrictions are, just state them, otherwise you're just being an asshole looking to make a buck off a fool who doesn't know how to perform a short-form due diligence.
2. Dion Bailey looked pretty good with his start for Seattle against KC; had his receivers covered nicely and was otherwise around the ball. He was trying too hard at times though, instead of just flying around with his instincts, when he played at USC -- his junior (final) year he had 5 interceptions.  It makes you wonder if Seattle might just let Kam sit out the entire season and not pay him a dime, while letting Bailey start? I suppose though, Kam just needs to figure it out and find a way to save face before he loses his spot on the team.
3. Staying on the Seahawks, Thomas Rawls looked really good -- he's hard to take down, and seems to have great balance on his feet, able to turn himself around and keep moving forward. I think he's going to oust someone from the backup RB roster.
4. Okay, one last thing about the Seahawks: They signed George Farmer who was released earlier this week from Dallas. Excited and hopeful that he makes at least the practice squad, this year. Surely there is a spot for someone with a 4.35 40-yard dash, who beat out DeAnthony Thomas in high school.
5. This sort of job posting on Guru, is exactly why I've stayed away from it. If you read it carefully and understand the law, this person is asking for someone to violate the law. If an Engineer or Architect has signed stamped drawings, only that person and the people under that person's supervision can alter the drawings. And there is no such thing as simple cosmetic changes to a building's exterior. When you change something, a whole series of other things in the drawing set end up requiring changes -- it's one reason why the industry has moved towards parametric modeling programs like Revit.

+ 5 Links

1. Elizabeth Warren summoned by the Veep -- looking for support or encouraging Warren?
2. Ipsos/Reuters: Trump with 19 point lead.
3. How to kickstart anything. Funny.
4. Steve Sarkesian's last post-practice presser was short -- he's mad at his offense.
5. Americans (and a Brit) to the rescue. The lead? An Air Force medical technician in pediatrics!

5 Thoughts for August 21, 2015

1. Earlier this year Josh Duggar was forced to admit that he had molested his sisters and other young girls when he was a teen, and quit as the head of the conservative Family Research Council. Yesterday Gawker outed his memberships in Ashley Madison -- a site that was dedicated to cheating spouses. Gawker also believes that it has found an OK Cupid account linked to him. Josh Duggar offered his defense: Porn addiction. He's so toxic, I would not touch him with a 10 foot pole wrapped in latex, using a remote-controlled robot, while on the opposite side of the planet, for fear that I might catch Duggar germs.
2. I have stumbled upon a means to shut down a subset of online trolls, The False Expert: Submit to the False Expert, that with their seemingly high level of knowledge in a particular (sometimes obscure) subject, that they should share more on the subtleties of their knowledge that pertain to the matter at hand. I have done this three times in the past week and the False Expert has always disappeared.
3. This is just my opinion, but if he doesn't want to play, why not trade Kam Chancellor for the Cleveland's Tashaun Gipson? You get a guy who might be just as talented, but on his last year of a rookie contract. It gives Seattle an opportunity to avoid concessions at the start of the second year in a four-year contract, lets Chancellor have a fresh start to renegotiate a bigger contract, and allows Seattle to essentially trade horizontally but affording some cap space next year to sign Bennett with a longer and bigger contract.
4. Adoree Jackson kicked a field goal in practice, yesterday, which begs the question: Is there any position that he can't play? Can he get into the Summer Olympics, too? He's going to win the Heisman.
5. Folks, Hawaii's facing yet another tropical hurricane threat: Tropical Depression Kilo looks like it'll strengthen to a hurricane while tracking backwards towards Kauai. Its path looks like a cross between Iniki and Iwa. Scary as hell, that this is the third time in a matter of just over a month that Hawaii's facing yet another hurricane threat. Combined with last year's cluster of close calls, what we're seeing is unprecedented.

5 Thoughts for August 20, 2015

1. If you were looking to invest in a smart home and wanted it to be future-proof, Google's latest product, the On Hub router, is probably your best bet, for three reasons: (1) It will be continuously supported with automatic software upgrades, (2) it is Zibgee-compliant (one of two open standards for the Internet of Things), (3) and is already a beast, spec-wise. That is, if you're willing to plop down $200. Oh, and its demand is very high, so it'll take a while before you'll actually get your hands on one. So what can you do with the IoT? You can set up a home security system, have your home automated to do a bunch of things when you leave or arrive, control the thermostat, power and devices remotely, or communicate remotely with your pet -- and I'm talking about what you can do right now, not 10 years from now.
2. There seems to be some confusion about what "Black Lives Matter" means. Obviously all lives matter, but what BLM is saying, is that the lives of black people are being ignored, by way of current policies, laws and bias, hence, a reminder to white folks that black lives matter...too. When I hear a politician respond to the issue of BLM by saying that all lives matter, it makes me question their suitability as a public servant, considering the shallowness of their thinking. 
3. Everyone is mischaracterizing Judge Berman's actions in the Inflategate arbitration. Everyone seems to believe that Judge Berman's grilling of the NFL's lawyers is a sign that he will rule against them, but they seem to have forgotten this tiny snippet: "Berman warned the NFL that an arbitration decision could be set aside if a key witness didn't appear at an arbitration hearing." It seems to me, if you combine Berman's questioning and his warning, what he is essentially saying is that he will rule that the NFL was more likely correct, but that the penalty was too severe. Don't believe the sports media's reporting, that Berman will rule in favor of Brady and let him get off without anything -- they're applying superficial interpretations of the judge's actions, thus far.
4. Funniest movie I've seen on DVD this year: What We Do in the Shadows.  This mockumentary is right up my alley. If you're not laughing by the end of that clip, you don't have a great sense of humor. This deleted scene is a riot!
5. The internet is a giant library my brain's repository, thus allowing me to "remember" ideas that I vaguely recall, by entering a few keywords into a query. While it may seem that I have an unfathomable depth of knowledge in a wide variety of subjects, the truth is, my brain is a keeper of keywords, and I merely enter those keywords into a search engine to recall the full idea. San internet, I'd be an absent-minded professor at best, or worse, a beach bum. In fact, that's a big part of what this blog is about -- I remember making an entry about a subject, and by keeping good tags, I can recall it later, to check my own memory. Oh, and I also use Pocket, Google Drive, Google Keep, Pinterest and photographs to help me remember things.

Wondering about this year's El Nino?

The news media appears to be slowly catching the wave of this year's El Nino season and how it might be the largest one on record. There are several sets of data worth looking at: A satellite tracking map of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, on a regular basis; tracking of monthly mean SST anomaly in the Nino region 3.4, since 1950; and the most current year (trailing 12 months) with the freshest data of SST anomaly in the Nino region 3.4.

Here's a quick and dirty comparison of the SST anomaly of the eastern Pacific, between 1997 -- the strongest El Nino season on record dating back to 1950 -- and 2015. Red means the surface temperature is much hotter than the normal, while the dark blue means it's much colder than normal.

Along this equatorial line, reaching to Nino region 3.4, you can see that both 1997 and 2015 look similar (east of Hawaii, at the Equator). The latest data shows that Nino region 3.4 is tracking +1.6C, while the same period in 1997 it was +1.7C.

This map happens to also show something else rather significant: The widespread warming in the eastern Pacific. That's not a permanent fixture, mind you, but it does show that this year we're seeing something extraordinary in ocean surface temperatures.

Anyway, just some interesting stuff to follow.

5 Thoughts for August 14, 2015

1. Kam Chancellor's holdout has been a blessing in disguise. (2013 UDFA) Dion Bailey's been able to show off his athleticism during training camp, and will get to play a significant amount of time during the preseason -- nothing wrong with getting your team's depth ready for the regular season, right? Today's game will be fun to watch, especially since it's Denver.
2. Kaspersky Lab may have been caught trying to induce false positives within rival antivirus software, going back a decade. According to Reuters, Microsoft, AVG and Avast were targeted by Kaspersky Lab, which, given the atmosphere against Russia, could lead to bigger troubles for Kaspersky. I recall on a few occasions Microsoft's Defender returned a couple of false positives to me, about 6~8 years ago -- I wonder if that was the cause?
3. There's an Indiegogo campaign, called Touchjet WAVE, which turns your TV into a touch-enabled screen. Definitely cool, and I thought about it for a moment, but having to constantly clean off smudge marks is a big disincentive for me, and I decided against it. Your TV probably doesn't have Gorilla Glass as a face, and without it, you're looking at scratches.
4. I was going to mention this earlier, but forgot about it. Those fire fighters and people in and around the massive explosion in Tianjin China, might not have a clue to the dangers they're in. A lot of those chemicals reportedly at the site, turn into acid when it makes contact with water vapor. Those simple N95 particulate masks do not protect you. You need a respirator specifically designed to block SO2 and other acid gases. Breathing in SO2 results in sulfuric acid forming in your lungs and damaging you from the inside. Of course, there's a lot more dangerous stuff in that air, which I cannot believe that any news organization would send a reporter within a mile of that zone. It's on the level of sending reporters into Fukushima, a day after the nuclear meltdown.
5. When I was in college, I took this course which presented hot topics by offering multiple viewpoints with unique circumstances; by this approach, one could understand that, contrary to how dogmatists present the world, life is rarely black and white. I give you one such contemporaneous issue: An 11 year old girl who was raped by her step-father, was denied an abortion because her country outlaws abortions except when the mother's life was in danger. This country -- Paraguay -- had 684 births from girls between ages 10 and 14, mostly from rape, out of a population of 354,000 10-14 year old girls -- or roughly 1 in every 5,000 girls age 10-14. Do you make an exception for rape and incest, or do you hold true to conservative dogma and force children who were raped, to have babies?

5 Thoughts for August 13, 2015

1. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau fined Citizen's Bank for stealing money from its customers. My only question is, why wasn't anyone sent to prison for stealing millions? Most people get long jail terms for similar theft, especially if the people involved knew what was going on.
2. Staying on the CFPB, starting in October of this year, your home loan estimates will become standardized, making them clear and simple for anyone to understand.
3. Still sticking with the CFPB, they've released their first monthly report of complaints received, and the top 10, in rank of most to least, are: Equifax, Experian, BofA, TransUnion, Wells Fargo, JPMorgan-Chase, Citibank, Ocwen, Nationstar Mortgage and Capital One. No surprises, eh?
4. I seem to have a radar for this stuff. While walking late a few nights ago, I came upon a homeless woman lying in the middle of the road on her sleeping bag. I asked her if she was okay and we began to talk about her situation. She said that she was lying in the street hoping to get a cop to stop, but I told her that it'd be safer to lie on the sidewalk. I asked her if she wanted me to call the police for her, and she said yes, so I did -- she pointed to 20 feet away where three other homeless people were sitting around, indicating that she'd been beaten by her husband. I called the police and stayed there, watching over her as she first walked back to her friends, then back to me. When the first officer arrived, he had no back up, and so even though I had told him what happened and he said that I could leave if I wanted to, I stayed around to watch his back. After his back up arrived, before I walked away she got up to thank me, I shook her hand and told her to take care of herself. Life on the streets is not easy, and it's tougher when the people you trust most, end up breaking that trust, eh?
5. Last week, I restarted my PayPal account. I wanted to get the Thea Render while it was on sale, but it wouldn't go through -- a result of the folks who make the Thea Render using Paypal and Paypal having some odd rules in place disallowing foreign transactions without signing in. Since my bank didn't allow for foreign wire transfers, I had no choice but to restart my PayPal account. It was ultimately serendipitous, as the USD to Euro conversion rate is lower now than it was a few months ago when I last tried and failed to make this transaction when Thea Render was last on sale -- had it worked out the last time I tried, I would have paid more. :D

5 Thoughts for August 11, 2015

1. It's a bit amusing to think that Oregon is home to both a terrible municipal fiber network that sucks up a lot of resources and is likely not viable on its own, and one that is successful and profitable. This profitable fiber network belongs to the City of Sandy -- are you sitting down? -- which charges just $40 a month for 100 Gbps service. The first fiber build out in Portland to offer 100Gbps, is going to be the winner -- true for anywhere, really -- regardless of whether or not that company is named Google Fiber.
2. Google's reorganizing itself into a holding company, named Alphabet, with its assets separated into companies, one of which is Google -- but from the write ups and comments I'm seeing online, I'm not sure people fully comprehend what's going on here. Google is transforming itself into becoming the Berkshire Hathaway of technology, with the goal of being on the front lines of developing new technologies. BTW, the abc.xyz URL for Alphabet, has a mild reference to Alpha and Omega (the beginning and end / first and last); while Larry Page refers to Alpha-bet as a bet on returns of investment, if you walk back the origin of Alphabet, in Hebrew it refers to Aleph - Bet / Father -Son / 1 - 2 -- and I'll just leave it at that.
3. The first -- preseason -- ESPN PAC-12 Power Rankings were posted, and it's impossible to ignore that the PAC-12 South is expected to be much stronger. Oregon is tops, but 2 - 6 are South teams. USA Today's Dan Wolken says the PAC-12 South might be the most loaded division in college football.
4. I actually spotted my dad and his old car in a Google Street View. Hilarious and awesome, because he's an analog guy who is now embedded into digital history.
5. Last week I was at Safeway and I saw that Bob's Red Mill products were on sale. I've never had TVP (Textured Vegetable Protein) before -- or so I thought -- but I'd been interested in it as a camping / emergency dried food for use in cooking. They were under $2 each bag (10 oz), so I grabbed a couple. I immediately opened a bag up and rehydrated some, then tasted it -- tasted like dried, fried tofu. Then I did some research online about the history of TVP, and realized that I've unknowingly eaten TVP many times -- it's in your veggie burger, your protein bars, canned chili, and at some fast food restaurants that serve products with something called "ground beef". If you're vegetarian, you're probably eating a lot more of TVP, knowingly or unknowingly. Anyway, I've since used it in a beef soup and curry, and I did not notice that it was in there.

5 Thoughts for August 10, 2015

1. Yesterday, football fans finally got their fix with the NFL preseason Hall of Fame Game (Minnesota looked sharp while Pittsburgh looked flat). And thus began the hand-wringing countdown to the personnel cuts to meet the eventual 53-person roster. I still believe that George Farmer is the best player that wasn't drafted, and if he doesn't keep a spot with the Cowboys, I continue to hold out hope that Seattle will pick him up. Speaking of Seattle, it was never right for Kam to hold out.
2. You know that algae bloom that was near Ross Island? I'm seeing algae growing along the edges of the Willamette, north of the Steel Bridge. It reminds me of oil, but green.
3. I'm not too impressed with Bernie Sanders' showing in Portland, and here's why: Portland already leans Socialist but is also heavily white -- the two demographics that are core to Sanders' support. If he garners large crowds in the South, then that would pique my interest. While he stands for a lot of things I stand for, when I look at him I see an old white guy who was baffled and befuddled by Black Lives Matter folks -- when heckled, he cuts short his speech; following the latest heckling in Seattle, he had a young black woman serve as his spokesperson in Portland. If you watch how Obama deals with interruptions from all sorts of groups, there's a stark difference.
4. How naive is a wide swath of the press is? A good number of them re-posted Scott Walker's supposed zinger -- "It’s sad to think right now, but probably the Russian and Chinese government know more about Hillary Clinton’s e-mail server than do the members of the United States Congress" -- not cognizant of the fact that Wikileaks has published just about everything the State Department has emailed -- except the personal emails from Hillary of course. Where did he get this stuff from? Probably from this retired DNI official who said it was likely that these countries hacked into her email. But this guy is full of shit -- if you listen carefully, he mentioned Hillary's Blackberry. What he didn't tell you is that up until 2013, BES / Blackberry devices were the only secure devices the DoD approved for use by gov't officials.
5. Speaking of shit, it's hitting the fan now. We've now got confirmation on Trump's post-debate numbers. Reuters-Ipsos reports that his post-debate numbers are the same as before: 24%, but Bush's numbers have dropped 5 points, down to 12% -- his closest rival. But wait, it gets worse. According to Morning Consult poll (via Huff Po Pollster tracking) Trump's up to 32% while Bush, again his closest rival, is down to 11%. What these two polls tell us, is that the gap is growing. And hey, don't forget who told you that TRUMP WON THE DEBATE. On substance, he offered nothing, but blame Fox News for this, as they chose to make this a reality-TV show in the first place, and Trump's got the reality-TV show thing down pat. Okay, nuff about politics...no more (unless something huge occurs) for the rest of the month.

5 Thoughts for August 9, 2015

1. Donald Trump has truly gotten under the skin of the professional commentariat and establishment. Following the first debate, they're disparaging his performance and what he said. On top of that, Erick Erickson disinvited Trump from his Red State confab by digging deep into his drawer of hypocrisy; no wonder he's facing a massive backlash by people who don't even like Trump. Fireworks in August -- who knew such a thing was possible? A fascinating political season, like no other in recent memory.
2. Speaking of Trump, an early poll (Friday - Saturday period) released by NBC / SurveyMonkey (online) showed that Trump had gained a point from last week. Flaws aside, the poll asked people if they'd vote for an independent Donald Trump, and 54% said they would -- this reflects my belief that the GOP are taking the wrong tack, only hurting themselves.
3. I admire Alan Dershowitz, but I have to wonder about his logic. In arguing against the Iran deal, he proposes that the deal relies on "bets", "rolls of the dice" and "faith", but then describes the only alternative aside from the deal: Use of force. It should be obvious that use of force also relies of bets, rolls of the dice and faith -- that Iran responds appropriately. To Dershowitz, Iran should appropriately respond to use of force by stopping nuclear development. And yet, the last time they were bombed, they did not stop -- which is why we're right here. By citing Tom Friedman he doesn't help his case; Friedman's idea of "improving" the deal by having Congress authorize the President to use force as a fall back support, is ludicrous -- rather than supporting the President, it signals to Iran that Congress intends to move one step closer to using force, rather than Iran's one step back from developing nuclear weapons. This is one of those times that I think Dershowitz ought to consider what he told Slate in 2010: "Oh, yeah. I think that lawyers are terrible at admitting that they're wrong. And not just admitting it; also realizing it."
4. After much experimentation, I've finally figured out what separates biscuits and scones from muffins: Baking Powder. No other ingredient mattered like changing the ratio of baking powder -- absent baking powder the outcome is biscuit and scone-like; the higher amount of baking powder the more cake-like your outcome is. Now, one could simply read about it to understand what baking powder is used for, but actually doing the experiment yourself helps you digest -- heh -- the ratios of different ingredients in any recipe made from scratch.
5. Not a week after Hurricane Guillermo was closely watched as it approached Hawaii, there is Hurricane Gilda in the offing. In 24 hours it jumped from category 1 to 4, but came down a bit, to cat 3 by Sunday morning. In this same period there have been two brush fires (one on O'ahu and one on Big Island), too. Rough summer.

Trump won the first GOP debate.

Ben Carson didn't win the debate. 

He won the Guy-You-Hate-Least Award and the Guy-Who-Says-All-The-Right-Things Award, but his entire demeanor is that of someone who doesn't actually think he'll win. I challenge you to find a photo of the debate where Carson is not looking more like a wallflower than the guy who wants all the attention on him. He couldn't adequately explain why he made gaffes in the past, reinforcing the sense that he really isn't prepared to enter politics.

Rand Paul didn't win the debate.

Either he got the memo but ignored it, or he didn't get the memo. The candidates were supposed to avoid attacking Trump (minimizing Trump's ability to become the center of attention) but Paul decided that to get out of the second tier, he had to stick out. It didn't work, and Trump simply brushed him off. However it doesn't mean that he's out of the competition -- he's staked out a libertarian position that is in stark contrast with everyone else, guaranteeing him a loyal base.

Ted Cruz didn't win the debate.

A couple of times, he got himself tongue-tied -- this from a guy who was supposedly a masterful debate team member in college -- and looked unprepared to debate the other candidates. If the debate were a Shakespearean play, Cruz delivered his soliloquy and not many people seemed to care. He'll be out sooner than later.

Chris Christie didn't win the debate.

9/11, 9/11, 9/11. A confrontation he had with Rand Paul led right back to 9/11. 9/11, 9/11, 9/11. He was feisty when given the chance to speak, but was low on substance. Otherwise, he remained quiet.

Mike Huckabee didn't win the debate.

Having failed to gain the nomination in 2008, Huckabee has changed course. Do you remember that Life Cereal commercial where the two boys say, "Let's get Mikey! He won't eat, it -- he hates everything!" Mike Huckabee hates everything but unlike Mikey, isn't very likeable. So his tactic in 2015 is to pretend that he's in the big tent crowd, and trying to get likes on his social page.

John Kasich didn't win the debate.

With a home town crowd Kasich got loud ovations and cheers, but he did the worst thing you could possibly do in a debate, and that is to come off looking and sounding like he was kissing the rectal exit of the leading candidate. He did manage to highlight that he was more of a mainstream conservative cohort of Walker and Bush, and maybe that gives his candidacy some cred in the eyes of GOP voters, but he did not fit in with the tone of the night: Testosterone.

Jeb Bush didn't win the debate.

He didn't set himself apart from the rest of the field, and most certainly couldn't distinguish himself from the rest of the mainstream conservative crowd. We know this to be the case, because his campaign briefly posted the talking points against Rubio and Walker, and he did not cover half of the attack points that were posted. The Jeb! campaign strategy is very simple: Wait out everyone else with that massive war chest. In fact, during the debate he willingly acquiesced to waiting for his turn. For now, they don't see Trump as a viable candidate, but if they continue to ignore Trump, they risk falling by the wayside, no matter how large that war chest is.

Scott Walker didn't win the debate.

He certainly didn't hurt his chances with mainstream conservatives as he focused mostly on attacking Hillary Clinton and sounded like a conservative, but Walker's problem was that every point he made about his achievements, was quickly rebuffed by Jeb!. And following the debate, fact checkers had a field day with his claims. As Trump previously noted, Walker's economic record is terrible, making him extremely vulnerable to attack as time passes.

Marco Rubio didn't win the debate.

He was ready to debate, aggressive and confident, attempting to get his message out in full, at every opportunity afforded to him. But he was also caught lying, and in fact made it a point to double down on his lie, in front of the crowd. Then, he made the worst gaffe of all: Admitting that Clinton would win the presidency based on her resume. It was meant to be an attack on her lengthy time in government, but instead he delivered the perfect sound bite for the DNC and Hillary.

Trump won the debate.

Starting with the very first question of the debate, pundits believe that Fox News hammered Trump (and they did) but there are three things wrong with what Fox News did. First, they made the debate all about Trump, which is a tacit acknowledgement of his sudden, meteoric rise in the polls and the threat he presents in taking over the GOP nomination process. Second, they attacked Trump for holding an opinion, which is tantamount to delivering judgment on his opinions without actually conducting a debate. Third, that first question of the debate -- whether he would pledge support for the eventual GOP nominee -- backfired by highlighting how he stands apart from politics and the political parties, two things that Americans hate most.

Making Trump the center of the debate, made people aware of his importance. While certainly Fox News' intent was to highlight Trump's boorish comments and opinions, what they did was put their own prejudices on the line for far-right conservatives to see, while also giving Trump the greatest leeway to turn the debate into a reality-TV show. What we saw wasn't a flustered, defensive Trump, but a combative NY native -- people often confuse combativeness for defensiveness. Do you know who the ultra-right conservative talk show hosts are defending, today? Not Megyn Kelly.

So what's the worst thing you could do, to a person who has become the flag-bearer of people who believe in the right to a contorted freedom of speech, where speech is inconsequential (often referred to as non-PC speech)? Attack him or her with rhetorical questions on his or her opinions. That is exactly what the Fox News moderators did to Trump. They attacked him with rhetorical questions -- questions that are functionally statements, and as such, carry no expectations of a rational answer -- which only bolstered his support.

I've observed pundits judge how Trump's failure to pledge support to the eventual GOP nominee means that he's maxed out his support from the GOP, but that's not what he's done. What some interpret as petulance can also be viewed as his independence from acting like a lemming. The same folks who support Ted Cruz, might be wondering why Ted Cruz failed to stick his hand up and stick to his principles, despite having confronted Mitch McConnell for failure to stand on principles, two weeks ago. The same goes for Rand Paul's supporters, who thought that his libertarian values were absolute. These people have a name: Tea Party.

At every attempt to attack Trump, he deflected the question by highlighting his right to hold an opinion, no matter how distasteful it was -- something that's been at the core of his candidacy all along. An attempt to demonstrate that Trump wasn't a faithful Republican, ended up showing that Trump wasn't going to kow tow to party politics, but rather, make his determinations based on his principles.

This is why he won the debate. And you can blame Fox News for that.

5 Thoughts for August 6, 2015

1. I got my Bonavita BV1500TS, which I had ordered two weeks ago, today. Although Woot had a delay in sending it out to me, perhaps because I sent an email asking if they were planning to mail it to me anytime soon, they sent it overnight, which made me a happy customer. I ran it through the cleaning process (three brewings of water to pull out chemicals from manufacturing), ground up some 100% Kona coffee beans, and brewed me a full batch. So, you know how the first time you taste french press you realize that coffee can taste very different depending on how it is brewed? Well, I had the same "wow" moment when I took that first sip. When I pulled the brew basket off, I could see that the process was very different from my drip coffee -- with the drip coffee maker, water fills the basket and grind, and the grind ends up climbing the sides of the filter, when done, whereas this pour-over model leaves the grind in place, but is fully saturated with water nonetheless (no dry grind). Via Woot, it was $90, which was a big savings from the normal $128 price tag. Max brew is 25 ounces, which is either (2) Starbucks tall cups or (3) Starbucks short cups.
2. People are heaping praise onto Microsoft's Edge browser that is included with Windows 10. I don't care for it, and here's why: It remains selectively supportive of CSS3 and HTML5, preventing it from running many websites with rich media coding. That's a complicated way of saying that Edge doesn't work with Google Music, or Google Drive. It doesn't work with some Apple-related sites, too. If they want to stub their own toe, that's their choice I suppose.
3. Sticking with Microsoft, I saw that Microsoft does not include native support for DVD playback in Windows 10 -- you need to pay $15 for an app via Microsoft, that essentially pays for all of the patent royalties required. The thing about this, is that if it hadn't come out in the news, I wouldn't have known about it, because I haven't used any OEM software to play DVDs since 2006 or so -- I strictly only use VLC. VLC handles just about every audio and video format that you can think of, which was never true of anything Microsoft pushed out (think Media Player). Just about every tech website will recommend VLC.
4. Last week I rushed in to get my DEQ certificate and renew my vehicle's registration. I drove out to the westside location at NW Cornelius Pass Road and HWY 26, and was about to drive into the line when I realized that I forgot to bring my credit card; I'd popped in my Google Wallet debit card, but not my CC. The thing is, I keep my Google Wallet balance low, so as to limit any stolen money, were something to happen. I pulled to the side, pulled my phone out, added money to my debit card via the Wallet app, drove back into the line, waited, got the test completed, and paid with my Wallet card. Not a bad way to go.
5. Trump won the debate, but not in the way I expected. I thought that someone from the middle tier would attempt to do a frontal assault on Trump, allowing him to break out and create a scene. Instead, it was Fox News that was responsible. Start with the first question, on whether each candidate was willing to pledge to support the GOP nominee and not run as an independent. That question allowed Trump to show that rather than blindly follow the party line, he would make a decision based on his principles while making everyone else look like lemmings. Then, through the course of the debate the Fox News moderators did Trump a favor by repeatedly questioning the validity of his opinions. You don't question the validity of a person's opinion, when he has become the lightning rod for those who hate having their own opinions questioned. What you do is... (sorry, I'm not revealing this for another six months).

5 Thoughts for August 5, 2015

1. Yes, still watching Rick and Morty. The great thing is, the most current episode is free at Adult Swim, right after it has aired. Season 2, Episode 2: Mortynight Run. One word: Jerryboree!
2. This could potentially blow up: Google and ATT have filed motions in a lawsuit against Apple, for intercepting (blocking) text messages to users who'd switched from the iPhone to Androids. They seem to know dates and people to focus on, so it seems they know quite a bit about what's going on at Apple.
3. Let me explain something that the media has failed to highlight in this debate over Planned Parenthood and abortions: The federal government does not pay for abortions (with the exception of rape, incest or the health of a woman) -- a result of the perpetually passed Hyde Amendment. So when politicians argue that PP should be defunded, what is actually being defunded is not abortions, but women's health. Then came along Jeb Bush who said, "I'm not sure we need a half a billion dollars for women's health issues"..."but abortion should not be funded by the government." He tried to walk the comment back by saying that he was talking about PP, but the truth of the matter is, that his slip of the tongue was actually spot on, and defunding PP would defund women's health programs, and that abortions truly aren't funded by the federal gov't. As for whether PP sold fetuses for a profit, none of the infamous (uncut) videos released offer a trace of evidence. Thus, politicians have taken to the airwaves to declare that they must defund PP. Never mind, that singling out PP is actually a violation of the US Constitution under the broad interpretation of the Equal Protection Clause (14th Amendment) as a result of the conservative favorite, corporate personhood. And if you're still unconvinced, then consider that Jeb! is suggesting a violation of the US Constitution's Article 1, Section 9 ban on Congress passing Bills of Attainder, and skip Due Process.
4. Yes people, the Lexus hoverboard is REAL! So how would you make this work? The used a superconductor (cooled) inside of the bottom of the hoverboard, and a magnetic track was placed below the surface of the concrete. I would think however, that you could create a supermagnet via a welded wire fabric layer in the concrete.
5. Tom Brady's primary defense in Deflategate: I was not told that I might be penalized for destroying the phone I had used during the critical period of this investigation and my lawyer said it was okay not to turn it over. It's a weak excuse for three reasons: (1) A week before he destroyed the phone in question, it was requested that he turn over his phone; (2) He destroyed this phone on the day before his interview with the independent investigator; (3) Though he insisted that his protocol was to destroy his old phone when he received a new one, he produced an older phone before the critical period under review. His perfectly timed actions reflect a guilty state of mind, and at the very least shows that he lied. Still not convinced that he's a liar? After clearly stating that he liked his balls at 12.5 PSI, he then immediately tried to walk back his statement, saying, "We picked 12.5 because that was -- I don't know why we picked 12.5. We could have picked 12.6. I don't even remember it being a part of that conversation; I really don't." His testimony is peppered with this sort of stuff and a lot of lost memories ("I don't remember") about what happened. Being evasive might work in a criminal trial, but in a civil trial or in a hearing of this nature, the weight used is based on who you believe more, and being evasive when everyone else isn't, makes you look sketchy. You can read the transcripts yourself, here.

5 Thoughts for August 4, 2015

1. How can an item be listed in Amazon Marketplace as "good" condition, if it doesn't come with a power adapter, cords, and manual? If this were a camera lens listing, it'd be shown as a "bargain". I'm looking at used modems, and it boggles the mind that Amazon allows third parties to list these items as "good" condition, when they're missing critical items, and as a result, haven't been tested. Nuts! FTR, I'm currently having a really bad run with the Amazon Marketplace, that I'm thinking it's time to stop shopping from there.
2. Fanboys are hilariously defensive. I'm in an online argument on an Oregon Ducks fan site, arguing that USC doesn't have a drop-off in talent, just because George Farmer and Nelson Agholor left. The article's author is up in arms, saying that Oregon's players are more talented than USC's. I've got him so riled up, he's gone off the deep end trashing USC players. Nothing quite like tweaking people who take things way too seriously. Sports fanboys are on the same level as Apple fanboys -- easily riled, completely irrational, and highly uncritical of one's self.
3. You can get a 55" OLED TV for significantly under $2K now, but it's only 1080p. I'm waiting for the 4K OLEDs to come down to roughly $1600, which will take a year or two. Until then, my plasma TV is still better than anything else out there (LCD TVs backlit /sidelit by LEDs). Hopefully they're not curved, though -- I hate curved TVs as they stick out when you mount them on the wall, especially if you want to recess them.
4. Currently listening to: Ultimate Party Sing-Alongs Radio on Google Music. It's loaded with party songs from the last 30 years, from Michael Jackson and Duran Duran to Britney Spears, Sublime and Coolio. If you like a wide range of music, this one's fun to listen to...could almost be a karaoke channel.
5. Just two weeks ago, I wrote ahead of the poll data, that contrary to most pundits' predictions of a decline, Trump's numbers would increase, following his criticism of McCain. Seeing that he's now cemented his double-digit lead (you might even say that he's crushing the competition), I'm curious to watch the first GOP debate, because Americans have basically given Trump a green light to make the debate into a reality-TV show -- that is, if any of the candidates dare go after Trump during the debate with a direct attack. FYI, two weeks back when I analyzed his candidacy and determined that Trump's numbers would increase rather than decrease, I also considered how to undermine his candidacy; I've been holding back on revealing this, because I rather enjoy the fireworks on display. :D 

5 Thoughts for August 3, 2015

1. Motley Fool has the most ridiculous assertion, that Comcast's Gigabit Pro is a Google Fiber killer. Ridiculous, you see, because 2Gbps at $300 is limited to medium-sized businesses and apartment buildings. Just about everyone else will find 1Gbps far in excess of their actual needs, including VSBs, or will otherwise provision multiple 1Gbps connections. Just think about it: (2) 1Gbps Google Fiber = $200 (business rate) vs 2Gbps Comcast Gigabit Pro = $300. Math should be simple, except at Motley Fool, apparently.
2. Yay! Russell Wilson has agreed to terms. Apparently it's 4 years, $87.5M with a $30M signing bonus spread over the contract and $60M guaranteed. Then, they followed up by signing Bobby Wagner in a long-term deal, which means that all of their stars are locked away until the end of 2017. This could be a sign of a mini-dynasty in the NFL.
3. The IOC's two remaining finalists for the 2022 Winter Olympics, are two fairly repressive regimes: China and Kazakhstan. China won. Riddle me this: How did Beijing, China win the Winter Olympics, which are hosted in February, when air pollution in Beijing is highest in February? Oh, and it'll all be fake snow, which resembles the Sochi debacle where temperatures were 60F and all of the snow was fake. Things that make you go, hmm.
4. Windows 10 is not bug free. I've encountered a handful of usability bugs while using it for the last two days. But other than usability issues, it's working fine (no BSODs and no freezes). It's much better than W8, by way of the little refinements (visual and usability) and the return of the start menu accessed directly from the desktop. Boy, it bugged the hell out of me that I had to go to the live tiles mode to access the start menu. Of course Microsoft being Microsoft, they really want you to use a Microsoft account to use some of the more interesting additions -- I find this annoying as you know that it's being used to track you.
5. Rio, Brazil and the IOC are somewhat in a panic mode right now. After trying to pass bullshit off as truth, saying that the waters in Rio are safe for the 2016 Olympics, the WHO told them that they had to test for both bacteria and viruses. You see, up until the AP report came out, Rio was only testing for bacteria. There is no way Brazil can afford to make the required investment and construct the infrastructure required -- think how much and long it took for Portland's Big Pipe to get built -- which means that Rio 2016 will be as infamous as Sochi 2014.