Final Thoughts Before Super Bowl 49.

As Cousin Sal put it, "the public is a loser". The public, seeing what the Patriots did against the Colts compared to how the Seahawks made it to the Super Bowl, have decided to bet their money on the Patriots winning, with lots of offense.

But more often than not, the top-rated scoring offense lost in the Super Bowl, than the top-rated scoring defense. Last year is the perfect illustration of how a top scoring defense could shut down a top scoring offense.

Do you know why the Colts lost so badly? Aside from the fact that the Colts had a slightly worse scoring offense, they had a really lousy defense compared to New England.

Seattle's not like the Colts. Seattle's had the best scoring defense in the NFL, three straight years.

Case in point with the GB game: Seattle's defense stopped the NFL's top-scoring offense from taking full advantage of all those turnovers, including that last one with 5 minutes to go in the game.

In the year Pete Carroll took over, Seattle was 25th best in scoring defense; the following year they were 7th best; since then they've been tops.

In Pete Carroll's 9 years at USC, he had two years where they did not finish top-10 in scoring defense. His best scoring defense squad -- the 2008 team -- was one of the best in the modern history of the NCAA. His defense included NFL players like Eversen Griffen, Nick Perry, Shareece Wright, Rey Maualuga, Brian Cushing, Mike Morgan, Christian Tupou, Fili Moala, Jurrell Casey, Taylor Mays, and some guy named Clay Matthews III.

The points here are that scoring defenses win games, and Pete Carroll knows talent and can coach them.

Notably, scoring defense was the one stat I decided to ignore when I wrongly predicted that Oregon would blow up Ohio State. Where the stats showed Oregon with a very slight edge in scoring offense, Ohio State had a bigger lead in scoring defense.

Some fun stuff:

• 53% of Americans and 53% of the world who've voted in ESPN's poll, are rooting for the Seahawks.
• States with an NFL team, by a margin of 26 - 6, are rooting for the Seahawks, in ESPN's poll.
• Even Portland's IKEA is rooting for the Seahawks.
• It's all probably due to the Patriots being the most reviled team in the US and the world.
• Before last year's Super Bowl, it was revealed that Pete Carroll was the coach that NFL players most wanted to play for, by a huge margin.
• When New England lost during the regular season, they lost by an average of 13.25 points; when Seattle lost, they lost by an average of 5.5 points.

I suppose Deflategate served to push some more Americans on the side of the Seahawks.

I can see two sorts of outcomes here: The one where Seattle plays even for a half, but then comes out and dominates on both sides, pulling away with a big margin win; or alternatively, a tight game throughout, with Seattle pulling a late Wilson comeback special, taking the lead with a minute or so to go, and the LOB winning the game. If they lose, it'll likely be because they failed on the alternate scenario of a late 4Q winning drive (which is how they lost all four games this year).

31 - 17 Seahawks

(Alternatively: 21 - 16 Seahawks)

10 Thoughts for January 26, 2015

1. Football: I must be excited about Super Bowl 49 -- I actually had a dream last night about getting ready for the SB and openly predicting that the Seahawks were going to win big.
2. Football: Speaking of predictions, if I'm right, then Seattle's top scoring defense is the deciding factor that gives the Seahawks their second-straight Super Bowl win over a more powerful scoring offense. Seattle 31 - New England 17.
3. Football: The reason why people remain skeptical of New England's explanations and comments over Deflategate, can be boiled down to Spygate. I have a longish write up on the experiments by Belichick and SmartHead Labs, here.
4. Football: The NFL has warned Seattle that a Marshawn Lynch crotch grab at the end of a touchdown will result in a 15 yard penalty. I wonder, did they warn Michael Jackson against the crotch grab, too? They certainly didn't censor it out, the hundred or so crotch grabs during the 1993 SB halftime show.
5. Football: This is the way-too-early draft conversion. Paul Richardson, drafted by the Seahawks in the second round last year, is considered a speedster. This year, the Seahawks could possibly get a bargain in the late rounds in George Farmer, a former teammate of Richardson who was even faster than DeAnthony Thomas. Give him a chance.
6. Geopolitics: Greece effectively voted to stop austerity by voting in the Syriza party into a controlling share of Greek Parliament. It shouldn't be a surprise given that unemployment remains at around 25%, and extrapolated out, would take another 4 years to settle back down to pre-2008 recession levels -- assuming of course, that there wasn't another recession. A Greek exit remains a potential leverage to renegotiate ECB loan terms, in order to allow Greece to increase spending.
7. Internet:The usage of social media to issue bomb threats yesterday, made me wonder if this was a form of swatting. Were there people on board those planes with a connection of sorts to someone who felt wronged? The dumb people who do these types of things, imperil our civil rights; there should be harsher penalties for those whose actions might encourage the curtailing of civil rights.
8. Internet: It looks like the Portland Metro area won't be getting in on the Google Fiber bandwagon in this go-around. In Oregon, the reason might be a weird property tax rule, and it's been known for some time, now. If you read the very bottom of the WSJ article, it specifically cites this as to why Portland has not been included, yet: "In the Portland area, Oregon tax-assessment rules are delaying a decision by Google to expand its Fiber service there, according to a person familiar with the situation." I've already written an email to my state senator.
9. Space: If you have not seen this, you must definitely check it out and play with it. It is the highest resolution image, ever, of the Andromeda Galaxy. It contains 1.6B pixels, and the full size image takes up 4.3GB! Fortunately, they have an interactive, zoomable tool to view the high res image, without having to download the 4.3GB file. Man oh man, this would make for an awesome image to show on an 8K TV.
10. TV: Netflix is starting to fall back on my shit list. Two weekends in a row, they've said that they're sending out my discs on Friday, but the discs do not arrive until Monday or Tuesday. Usually they'd arrive one day later, and during the weekday that's still the case. So, not only is Netflix no longer open on Saturdays, but they're delaying disc shipments on Friday. Netflix has become too powerful, methinks.

Email to my state senator re: Google Fiber

Hello!

It seems that the state's peculiar property tax rule -- stemming from central assessment -- has indeed stalled Google Fiber in the Portland Metro area. According to the WSJ's article on Google Fiber's upcoming expansion announcement:

"In the Portland area, Oregon tax-assessment rules are delaying a decision by Google to expand its Fiber service there, according to a person familiar with the situation. ... It isn't clear if this approach would apply to Google, and the state legislature is planning to tackle the issue in coming months. However, it has created uncertainty for the company, the person said."

As a resident long hoping for competition, I am extremely disappointed, not just because the uncertainty has created a delay in competition locally, but that the state legislature has known since October's Oregon Supreme Court ruling that this would create a stumbling block for Google Fiber, and has not yet rectified this.

We don't have the luxury of months to figure this out. If Google Fiber construction is to move forward, we (meaning the state legislature) must be moving in weeks not months, don't you agree? That is to say, when Google has passed over potential fiberhoods that have failed to meet minimum signups, those neighborhoods have been placed on the backburner as construction has moved forward with others. Think about all those people who will miss out on Google Fiber's free connection offer, and the others who would have otherwise signed up for their free, 5Mbps connections. If we get passed over, who will voters blame?

Sincerely,

A very concerned voter and resident.

---

Feel free to copy and paste it in your own email / letter to your state senator, to register your frustration that their sloth-like speed has placed a Google Fiber rollout in the Portland Metro area in jeopardy.

About those Deflategate temperature / pressure tests.

While it is completely true that temperature can change gas pressure, you should remain skeptical of the explanations by Bill Belichick and the HeadSmart Lab folks.

Online, you'll see complicated formulas to determine pressure loss due to temperature change. Since gas volume remains the same, you can actually simplify to this formula (if you go the link, you can see nearly the same application of what we're trying to do here):

T1 / T2 = P1 / P2

where:

T1 = Initial temperature, absolute (T1 + 459)

T2 = Final temperature, absolute (T2 + 459)

P1 = Initial pressure, psia (P1 + 14.7)

P2 = Final pressure, psia (P2 + 14.7)

You're going to solve for T2, by assuming P1 = 12.5 (as Brady said that he likes his balls at exactly 12.5), and by assuming P2 = 10.5 (as reported by news outlets using their NFL sources) and T1 = 75F. Personally I find 75F implausible because at home I keep my thermostat at 69~70F (heating) in the winter, but whatever.

T1 / T2 = P1 / P2
(75+459) / (X+459) = (12.5+14.7) / (10.5+14.7);
534 / (X+459) = 27.2 / 25.2;
534 / (27.2 / 25.2) = (X+459);
494.74 = (X+459);
494.74-459 = X;
X = 35.74F

So what happens if you solve for P2, under the assumption of game time temperature of 51F?

(75+459) / (51+459) = (12.5+14.7) / (X+14.7);
534 / 510 = 27.5 / (X+14.7);
1.047 (X+14.7) = 27.5;
(X+14.7) = 27.5 / 1.047;
X = 26.27 - 14.7;
X = 11.57 PSIg

Now, I'm not a scientist, either. But I did stay at a Holiday Inn tackle complex formulas for calculating deflagration venting in buildings, so science and math isn't overly complicated to me.

But there's more to this.

Let's take the atmospheric pressure into account. Prior to the game, it was not raining; the atmospheric pressure was likely higher when these balls were inflated than during game time. As the ambient air pressure lowered from a storm front approach, the air pressure inside of the balls should have increased -- that is to say, the ball wanted to get larger.

Furthermore, Brady explained to us that he liked his balls exactly at 12.5 PSIg, which makes it impossible to believe that one out of the twelve balls remained at regulation. It's difficult to account for the disparity between the 2.0 PSIg pressure anomaly between the balls, except for one scenario: The ball boy could not access one ball, whether it was in play or otherwise being held onto by someone else.

Because the balls were checked prior to game, and because the average loss of pressure was 1.8 to 1.5 PSIg depending on who did the experiment, we know that the one ball that had remained within regulation, was not originally inflated above regulation.

So no matter how Belichick Science works or how the HeadSmart Labs tests were done, they did not approach real simulations of January 18. Since neither Belichick nor HeadSmart Labs showed video of the actual tests (notably the HeadSmart labs never showed their white board filled with the measured results), I suggest that we take their results with several grains of salt.

Like I said before, this one act does not necessarily tilt the outcome of the game, particularly in the Colts - Patriots championship when the difference between the two teams was extremely wide. But if one is apt to cheat, who's to say that they did not employ a variety of cheating schemes? Add them all up and they could tilt the game. That is why there needs to be an extra set of eyes on the Super Bowl, to ensure that the outcome was fair.

The data MetroMile collects via OBD.

I logged in, and saw that there was now an option to download data that MetroMile collected on your driving, through their OBD dongle. Naturally, I had to check it out! What I found was a bit breathtaking. Now, mind you that they do not bill you based on driving habits, but when you see what sort of data is collected, you can imagine the nefarious things one could use this data for.

Here's a partial list of the data MetroMile collects:

• Latitude and longitude;
• GPS speed;
• Heading;
• Altitude;
• Odometer;
• Number of GPS satellites pinged;
• Acceleration in X, Y and Z coordinates;
• Direction of gyroscope in X, Y and Z;
• Engine RPMs;
• Vehicle speed;
• Control module voltage;
• Manifold air intake flow;
• Air intake temperature;
• Malfunction indicator light on.

So what makes this so interesting? Because last week, it was reported that Progressive's dongle, Snapshot, was completely unsecured. Anyone with the right tools and expertise could access your data or control parts of your vehicle, either by intercepting the transmissions from Snapshot or by hacking their way into Progressive's servers. And because these devices transmit in real time, someone could also track you in real time.

Before, in order to control a car via the OBD port, you needed to physically access it, and plug something in there that you could then communicate with. With the Snapshot using unsecured transmissions, you no longer need physical access to the OBD.

So if you work for MetroMile and are reading this, please do confirm that your wireless transmissions are 100% secured. If they aren't, please secure them immediately!

DeflateGate is real. Now what?

It turns out, the NFL has found that 11 of 12 footballs used by the Patriots in the AFC championship game were inflated below regulation. The official report won't be released for a few more days, but this could be big.

This comes less than a decade after Spygate broke, and has probably permanently sullied the Patriots' reputation.

Did underinflated balls help them win against the Colts? Not on its own, no. But make no mistake about it, if it didn't confer some benefits, no one would have taken some air out of the balls. And with the history of Spygate and the lying the Patriots staff did over Spygate before the evidence came out proving their guilt, there is a legitimate question of whether other cheating tactics were deployed by the Patriots, to gain a significant advantage over the Colts.

And then you have to wonder just how long this scandal has been going on, too. Was this a one-time thing, or was it an ongoing effort? Did they just barely beat the Ravens by means of cheating, too?

So now we wait and wonder on the consequences of their actions -- does the NFL keep a close eye on the Patriots during all Super Bowl activities, do they add punitive measures such as taking draft picks away and fining the Patriots staff, or do they go so far as to keep Bill Belichick -- a repeat offender, now -- off the field in the Super Bowl?

As a Seattle fan, I was indifferent to the Patriots beating the Colts because on paper they seemed to be equally good, and the narrative of the matchups were equally compelling with either Indianapolis or New England. But with this scandal, surely all Seahawks should demand that the NFL keep a close eye on the Patriots staff the entire game and at all practice sessions!

10 Thoughts for January 20, 2015

1. Internet: I must have pissed off someone, because I'm starting to get a trickle of phishing emails with my name in it. Spam, unlike phishing, doesn't know your name, you see. :D
2. Internet: It feels like Wired.com has become a home for libertarian-leaning conspiracists. Rules don't matter to these people, just support for their beliefs. And I've seen this happen many times: BoingBoing and Vox. People get so worked up in their righteousness, a group-think follows. Each time I've had to drop them from my reading list because the rah-rah bullshit became too much.
3. Football: The talk in sports is all about the improbable miracle in Seattle, the comeback of epic proportions that people can't stop shaking their heads, and Green Bay players can't let go of. Easily the most amazing comeback, even if it wasn't the deepest hole to come out of.
4. Football: Another popular narrative coming out of Sunday's championship games has been dubbed "Deflategate". Apparently Indy linebacker D’Qwell Jackson, upon his interception, felt that the ball was underinflated and gave it to an equipment manager who also felt that it was not up to regulation. From there it escalated and made its way to the refs who then pulled the ball aside for further investigation. The thing is, it really doesn't grant a big benefit to a team, because those Nike gloves are extremely sticky. The longer the NFL keeps quiet on the issue, the more likely there is substance to the allegation, leading the NFL to dig deeper to see how pervasive this violation was. If the report comes back before the Super Bowl, I suspect the Seahawks will gain millions of new fans. Updated: 11 of 12 balls were found to have been underinflated. Ruh roh!
5. Football: USC's recruiting class is so strong, they're going to have to let some guys go in order to sign the 5 highly-touted recruits (Porter Gustin, Osa Masina, Rasheem Green, John Houston and Iman Marshall) at the top of their radar. And today Taeon Mason dropped USC in favor of Washington State -- not a big surprise at all. The interesting thing is, USC offered two other recruits (Kevin Scott and Jay Jay Wilson) in the past week, so it seems like there might be more decommitments coming soon.
6. Football: I took a look at Oregon Ducks' depth chart, and there wasn't a single guy over 300#; the entire defensive line roster had just one guy over 300#. Neither do any of their current DL commits. By contrast, USC had 5 DL players over 300# this past season, and will have 5 next season. No wonder Oregon had trouble in the trenches against Ohio State!
7. TV: Grimm appears to be filming at multiple locations in the Pearl concurrently, that they've blocked off street parking on a half-dozen blocks and parked a bunch of trailers on an empty lot next to the train tracks north of Union Station. With so many guards keeping an eye on equipment, it's a solid bet that there won't be any vehicle break-ins this week.
8. Politics: You know, Democrats never did ask the voters to punish Republicans for their shutdown of government, in 2013. Either that, or the American voters rewarded Ted Cruz and gave Democrats the green light to use the same scorched Earth tactics, don't you think?
9. Politics: The hour-long State of the Union speech can be read, here. One great line: "I’ve heard some folks try to dodge the evidence by saying they’re not scientists; that we don’t have enough information to act. Well, I’m not a scientist, either. But you know what — I know a lot of really good scientists at NASA, and NOAA, and at our major universities. The best scientists in the world are all telling us that our activities are changing the climate." -- I've never understood why people claim to not be a scientist, and yet fill in the answers with their non-scientific opinions.
10. Politics: Joni Ernst's response kind of freaked me out. She wore a smile whether she was offering criticism or positive comments. You know what was worse, however, was her trite GOP response that the US needed to readjust its policies to grow the economy, despite the fact that the US economy is growing faster than at any point during the GOP-led years of 2001 - 2006. Are we free to interpret this to mean that the GOP want to implement misguided dogma for policy, slowing down the economy?

My five simple rules for shopping at Amazon.

1. Avoid buying plumbing parts. Plumbing parts are far more complicated, with details that are often missing or obscure, ensuring that many people will order the wrong part even though it looks like the right part. It might be more expensive, but it is faster and simpler when you go into a plumbing parts store and tell them what your problem is, as they'll not only know what you're looking for but will give you advice about the DIY job you're about to do. Instead, shop on Amazon for the part that you think you want to get, and then ask the plumbing parts store person if that part will indeed work.
2. Avoid buying things shipped from China.  I have found that the quality of construction is a hit or miss, as well as the authenticity of the item. Plus, these things take three or four weeks to arrive, having to go through Customs, and, when you inevitably have to resolve a problem, it'll take several days because of the time difference.
3. Use thetracktor.com to check the price history on your item using the ASIN number, which is Amazon's own ID for each item that is sold at their website. Track the price and buy it at its lowest, not at its highest level. If you use thetracktor, you can set the price level and have them send you an email alert, or you can add it to your "saved for later" cart and Amazon identifies the price changes, every time you check your cart. One requires no effort except to sign up, while the other requires you to be proactive.
4. Read the 1-star comments. The poor ratings are usually split between those who are completely clueless and those with actual experience and greater knowledge about the item you're looking to purchase. Often under these comments, there are responses that are equally important, as they often include technical references to guide you to what you really want.
5. Pay attention to the seller ratings. Never buy from someone who has below 4.0 stars. If you think about it, few people leave poor seller ratings, especially if the seller resolved issues; they would rather forgo leaving a rating than to leave a bad rating. This bias can hide the fact that a seller might be dealing with a lot of fake goods or otherwise has a high rate of returns / refund requests. As a result, I believe that an "average" rating is closer to 4.0 stars than 3.0 stars.

HOLY COW! SEATTLE DID IT!

Are you kidding me?

Russell Wilson was having his worst day, ever, with a total QBR hovering around 10 from four interceptions, the last one coming with just 5:13 left in the game.  Fans were minutes away from a huge disappointment, having watched the Seahawks offense sputter and drop balls left and right. Meanwhile, Green Bay brought the hurt and sacked Wilson several times and looked like they controlled the game, especially in the secondary.

But then like a light switch, the Seattle offense suddenly hit the on button and everything was working. Even though Marshawn Lynch was playing well throughout the game, his biggest plays came in the last four minutes of the game, with a 26-yard catch and run and a 24-yard rumble into the end zone, rocking the stadium.

Wilson and the Seahawks made it to overtime and won it, after two scores with just 4 minutes left in the fourth quarter, with a reverse-field up-for-grabs throw for a 2-point conversion, with an onside kick recovery. An improbable series of huge plays by the Seahawks, and Seattle is going back to the Super Bowl.

Wilson and the Seahawks showed that you never give up and you never stop believing.

Best comeback, ever?

The Euro hits a milestone.

An interesting note: The Euro, in midday European trading, hit a Euro/USD ratio of 1:$1.1571, which is below the original currency's pegged ratio -- 1:$1.1743 -- back in 1999.

The lowest valuation -- 1:$0.8252 -- occurred back in October 2000, so there's a significant amount of space for additional devaluation. Without any firm plans on stimulus measures by the ECB, and with an impending vote in Greece that could result in its exit from the Euro, we could be on our way towards reaching 1:1 parity, soon.

Time to apply for a passport (I let my previous one expire) I think.

(Well, unless Republicans manage to fuck the economy up again, and blame the Democrats for their screw up. See: U6 chart.)

Ain't that the truth?

via: Twitter

The missed calls by Big-12 refs in the NC game.

As promised, here are the missed calls, in the first quarter. I didn't do this for the whole game, but this went on throughout the rest of the game. The Ducks would have probably lost, even if these calls were made, considering just how poorly their defense played, but nonetheless I find it hard to believe that I saw two takedowns on the o-line during the whole game, but zero calls for holding.

It's hard to discern the foul from screen captures, especially at this resolution. If you watch the video -- I hope you DVR'd it, but if you didn't, it's available online unless it's taken down, that is -- you can see the fouls a lot clearer. In real time, I can understand that the refs will miss a lot of these, but how do the refs miss seven fouls in a single quarter?

Enjoy. Or rage.

A postmortem on the Oregon Ducks loss.

This one was difficult to write.

It's usually true that the team who wins the turnover margin wins the game. Unfortunately for Oregon they couldn't capitalize on those turnovers, despite being +4 (ignoring the last second deep throw by Mariota out of frustration) in the game. Oregon lost on every other battle, except the turnover margin, and they lost badly.
The game was lost:

• In the trenches on defense. On defense they faced what might be best described as the Stanford power run combined with Auburn's spread. Whether it was the off-tackle or counter run with both pulling guard and tackle, Oregon's front four could not get off their blocks. Before long, the ends lost contain trying to collapse the middle. On the bright side for USC in 2015, there is a clear game plan to use with the giant o-line who outweigh the Ducks' d-line by some 50 pounds, each.
• In the trenches on offense. Mariota just didn't have the luxury of time to sit back and hit his receivers, as the pocket would collapse and in a rare sight, he was sacked a couple of times in the game. The run game was nearly nonexistent, too, as the Buckeye defensive front four often pushed the Oregon offensive line backwards, early and often. Worse, sometimes the line didn't seem to know what blocking scheme they were in.
• In the secondary. When the Ducks held both safeties deep, the Buckeyes exploited it by running and short passes. When they played cover-1, the Buckeyes split the safety and Cardale Jones threw long.
• Tackling. The Ducks did not tackle. They were trying to make high tackles and arm tackles on 225 pound back Ezekiel Elliott and 250 pound quarterback Cardale Jones and failed miserably. No one makes high tackles on Marshawn Lynch, either, but still, some people try.
• Laterally. The one thing the running backs haven't figured out yet, apparently, is when to take one cut and go. Trying to bounce to the outside wasn't working against the Buckeyes, and it doesn't usually work in the NFL. Likewise, the WR bubble screen wasn't working either. I hope this wasn't a page out of the Lane Kiffin playbook.
• Refs. The Ducks lost big on this one. The Big-12 refs missed a lot of calls against Ohio State. In the first quarter alone, there were seven missed calls -- I'll put together a separate post of the images showing the missed fouls. I don't know how the back judge missed Buckeye #50's take down late in the first quarter. I saw two takedowns, actually, and I kept waiting for the call that never came. If the PAC-12 calls phantom fouls, the Big-12 apparently doesn't se many fouls, particularly ones on the o-line. Now, it's okay if they're calling it on both sides and therefore consistent, but they weren't.

You can't blame the lack of defense, the terrible blocking and the lack of tackling on the refs, though, and that one squarely rests on the Ducks. Plus, the Buckeyes clearly outplayed the Ducks, had a better defensive game plan, better adjustments at the half, a balanced attack, and stronger in the trenches.

Congratulations to the Buckeyes with a huge win.

By the way, USC hasn't lost to the Buckeyes since 1974 -- a string of 7 straight wins -- including an 18-15 win in the Horseshoe with a true-freshman quarterback in Matt Barkley. I just wanted to remind the Ducks and the Buckeyes that some PAC-12 teams have no trouble beating the Buckeyes' power run game. Can't wait to see you guys next year in the playoffs.

10 Reasons why the Ducks win it all.

Ohio State is a very good team that could beat Oregon on any given day, but I think that Oregon will win. In one scenario they humiliate Ohio State, in a second scenario they win by two touchdowns -- you get the picture, don't you? 

Here are 10 reasons why the Ducks will win:

1. Everyone thinks that Ohio State's third-string quarterback passed the test against Alabama. The way I see it, Alabama's defense didn't pass the smell test after losing 7 starters from the previous season.
2. One big advantage Oregon has over Alabama, is game film of Ohio State's Cardale Jones playing a full game. Trying to come up with a defensive plan against a quarterback you've never played, means that you're playing against a scheme and not reading the quarterback's tendencies (does the guy like to rush to his left or right, does he throw poorly when running to his left or right, which receiver does he prefer to dump off on, etc.) We saw what Oregon's defense did to Jameis Winston -- expect the same, but worse for Cardale Jones.
3. No amount of cardio training, mid-season, can bring the Buckeyes up to speed to play against the Ducks. There is fast, and then there's Duck speed. The school who plays closest to Duck speed is Arizona. Ohio State players will be gassed by late-third quarter. Of course, the flood gates will open in the third quarter, but not just because the Buckeyes will be gassed; Oregon's really good at halftime adjustments.
4. The PAC-12 is flat out better than the B1G, top to bottom. The final regular season AP top-25 had 6 PAC-12 and 4 B1G teams ranked. That means half of the PAC-12 was ranked while less than a third of the B1G was ranked. Of those ranked teams, the PAC-12 was 5-1 in bowl games, while the B1G was 3-1. Head to head in the regular season and in the bowls, the PAC-12 went 6-2 against B1G opponents.
5. The winner of the game is usually the winner of the turnover margin. Oregon's turnover margin (20) is twice that of Ohio State's (10), and is the best in the country.
6. The margin between scoring offense and defense favors Oregon. Compare each school's scoring offense to the other school's scoring defense, and the margin between these two, usually predicts the winner. In this case, Oregon has a 2.4 point edge. It's a take on Sagarin's Pure Points (Predictor) ratings, except in this case, it's a head-to-head measurement.
7. Everyone has Oregon on top. ESPN's Football Power Index has Oregon #1. Las Vegas has Oregon favored over Ohio State, by roughly 6 points, even with two Oregon starters out. If it were under 3 points, the game would be roughly akin to a tossup. 
8. If you look at all of the predictions (ESPN, SN / Vegas, CBS) no one is predicting Ohio State to win big -- almost everyone offering a Buckeye win has them by a field goal. But about half the people predicting Oregon to win, are predicting a big margin. That's usually a sign that people aren't sure about Ohio State's ability to win, but a lot of people are certain of Oregon's chances to win. Oh sure, you can find biased sports fans parading as journalists picking Ohio State to win big, but then you look at their spotty record and hit the ignore button.
9. The toughest opponent nationally for Oregon, isn't Ohio State; it's TCU. TCU blew out Ole Miss by 39 points, and Ole Miss beat Alabama by roughly the same margin that Ohio State beat Alabama. Had TCU been included in the CFP, TCU had the best chance of winning it all. Go back to Sagarin's Pure Points (Predictor) and the top two teams are TCU and Oregon, respectively. Without TCU in there, Oregon had the best chances of winning it all.
10. Mariota. He is head and shoulders above the capabilities of Darron Thomas, and has the hardware to show for it. DT was a great player, but he fell short at times on his throws, and was a step slower than Mariota. This makes Oregon's second championship game appearance the best opportunity for the Ducks to win it all.

Bonus: Top reason why Oregon wins, is because ESPN's KC Joyner, using his usual, dubious analysis, picked Ohio State. At the end of the day, ESPN never holds its employees responsible for lousy analysis.

Oregon 49 - Ohio State 24

10 Thoughts About the Keystone XL Ruling.

1. The Nebraska Supreme Court let a Nebraska law stand, allowing for the governor to dictate the path of the Keystone XL pipeline. But it was done so, through a crazy technicality. See #2.
2. Technically speaking, the court ruled 4-3 that the suing landowners subject to eminent domain under this controversial Nebraska law, had standing in court to sue the government. Good ruling, I think. But there was a second part to this -- see #3.
3. Technically speaking, not a single member of the Nebraska Supreme Court voted that the Nebraska law was constitutional. Three of them failed to register a vote on that particular issue, while the other four of the seven-member body voted that the law was unconstitutional. Nebraska requires a super-majority of 5 votes to overturn constitutional issues. If all three who did not vote, voted, they still would have won since the other side did not establish a super-majority of 5 votes to overturn.  This implies that at least one of the three who did not vote, would have voted to overturn the law, but that because they did not vote on the issue, the law could not be overturned. Weird, right?
4. But here's the kicker about the law itself. Presumably, the people pushing the XL in the first place are conservatives. Conservatives are the angriest folks when it comes to observing private land owner rights. But here they -- conservatives  -- were, pushing to use eminent domain to seize private land!
5. But wait, it's worse than that! Not only did conservatives decide to use the power of government to seize private land, but they did so at the interests of a foreign corporation! That's a double-wow, right? Just imagine if President Obama demanded that a law be passed at the behest of a foreign investor, to seize private lands.
6. This pipeline extension, amazingly, will go right through an aquifer. But that's not the scary part about it -- see #7.
7. The really scary part about this pipeline, is that the tar sands from Canada are already flowing in the Keystone I pipeline. In just over a year from when it started flowing in 2011, there were 14 spills! But wait, it's worse than that -- see #8.
8. Tar sand oil pipelines are 3.6x more likely to spill oil from a leak. You betcha, an environmental catastrophe is waiting to happen.
9. Were Keystone XL to be built, the price margin between Brent and WTI will disappear and midwesterners used to lower gasoline and oil heating prices (compared to the US average) will be in for a shock. The oil is going to the Gulf Coast for a reason, and it's not to refine for local consumption!
10. But the lawsuits aren't over, yet, by a long shot. Because of the wide-ranging issue of the use of eminent domain for what is a marginally beneficial project for locals in Nebraska, and because the vast majority of the benefits will go to a foreign corporation, you can damn well expect this to move upwards, eventually, to SCOTUS. Unless the conservative members of SCOTUS are willing to do backflips on their prior positions on the loose use of eminent domain, I'd expect the Nebraska law to be overturned.

Vive la France.

I am Charlie.

In remembrance of those who lost their lives, exercising free speech.

Flu season thoughts.

I haven't had a flu vaccine in decades, and, statistically speaking, I shouldn't be worried, because the flu only afflicts roughly 10-20% of the population. Thusly, I think that I've only ever had the flu, once.

This compares to the common cold, which I, on average, catch once a year.

Of late, both the national and  Portland news media outlets have been pushing the narrative that the flu season is getting worse. Concurrently, they're also reporting that because of the mismatch of the vaccine, the vaccine is not as effective, though they say that you should nonetheless get the shot, because it offers some protection.

Naturally, I had to do some research.

Contrary to national reports, we're well on our way down from the flu season's peak.

Google Flu Trends

Indeed, we peaked in early December, nationally, according to Google Flu Trends. So, how are we doing in Oregon? Well, that map above pretty much tells you how Oregon is doing. Below is confirmation that it has been a mild season, overall, in the State of Oregon.

So, how is the flu season doing in Portland? Well, it's still getting hot (pun intended), but if you extrapolate the change in slope, Portland's flu season will either peak in the next week or two, then begin to drop off.

Now consider that it takes about two weeks for the flu vaccine to reach full effectiveness, so if you run out to get the shot, you will likely miss the peak of the season in Portland.

But more critically, because of this season's mismatch, the vaccine is likely only about 50-55% effective. In a good year, the vaccine is about 80-85% effective.

In fact, the number of people needed to vaccine in order for one person to avoid the flu, is roughly 71, and that's when there's a perfect match. (By comparison, NNV for seniors against pneumonia, ranges from 600 - 2000, while NNV for seniors against shingles, ranges from 11 - 165.) Note: that does not mean that the 70 people who were vaccinated would end up with the flu, but that because the flu infects just 10-20% of the population, you need to vaccinate 71 people to stop one infection.

So should you get a shot?

Well, that depends on your perspective. The cost is often free up front, making the choice a relatively simple cost-benefit-risk analysis. Despite what you may hear about side-effects of vaccines, there is no actual link between vaccines and certain specific diseases or conditions. However, I am quite sure that there is a genetic component to vaccine response -- that is to say that if viruses can mutate, then surely humans have minute variations that is responsible for how our bodies respond to vaccines.

Frankly, I would rather that virologists focus on a vaccine against rhinovirus, the common cold, because rhinoviruses are much more prevalent.

But no, I will not be getting the flu vaccine. Maybe next season.

References:

1. http://summaries.cochrane.org/CD001269/ARI_vaccines-to-prevent-influenza-in-healthy-adults
2. http://link.springer.com/article/10.1186%2F1741-7015-11-153
3. http://www.cdc.gov/vaccines/acip/recs/grade/pneumo-vac-adult.html
4. http://www.jstor.org/discover/10.2307/41996069

10 Thoughts for January 3, 2014

1. Foodie: 525 food carts in Portland. Portland is Cartopia (I think it should be called Cartlandia, but Cartopia is reference to the first pod). I've dug through all sorts of websites that have collated data and labeled different cities in the US as the food cart capital of the US, and have noticed that some appear to use faulty information, or utilize sketchy metrics. The bottom line is, Portland has far more food carts than anyone else, and if you take into account the population size, hands down Portland rules. The Portland Food Cart Blog has a handy map of all 40 pods of food carts. If you want to be in food cart heaven, Portland is it.
2. Foodie: Sticking with reasons why Portland is awesome, not only does Oregon have more craft breweries -- 6.3 per capita -- than any other state in the US, but Portland specifically has more breweries -- 58 -- than any other city in the world!
3. Transportation: Sticking with reasons why Portland is awesome, Bicycling magazine lists Portland as the second-highest bike-friendly US city. 
4. Weird: Portland's "Worst Day of the Year Ride" is a bicycle ride that is scheduled on what is meteorogically the day most likely to have the worst weather of the year. Except, last year it was called off because of snow. That was amusing.
5. Football: The internet had a big laugh over Jameis Winston's self-inflicted fall and fumble. It was a moment of schadenfreude felt around the world.
6. Football: The internet is also abuzz with the reality that, for the first time in a decade, no SEC team will be involved in a national championship game. The last time no SEC team was involved in a national championship game, was the 2005 Rose Bowl, of course!
7. Football: The Ducks' resounding blowout win against FSU, no doubt, fed into their early 7.5 point lead in the odds against Ohio State. I think it'll be another blowout, though. Ohio State just has no means to replicate the speed at which the Ducks execute plays, and they will not be able to keep up with the foot speed of Mariota. Whereas Oregon has more than enough foot speed to keep up with Ohio State, and the Ducks will rattle the Ohio State quarterback. This team, even absent Ifo Ekpre-Olomu, is a more complete team than Ohio State.
8. Football: The PAC-12 is 6-2 in bowl games, excluding the final championship game between Oregon and Ohio State. Pretty good.
9. IKEA: Portland's IKEA has fish and chips for January. Mmm...fish. Will need to find the time to go there, soon.
10. IKEA: A few years ago, IKEA stopped carrying the Traby line. I was bummed, because I never finished building my wall of Traby units. It turns out, they're still being sold...in Japan. Man, I'm jealous.

10 Thoughts on the Ducks win over FSU.

1. Ducks belong. Following the loss to Arizona, I consoled my friend, telling her that it was okay because Oregon would recover and win out and make it to the playoffs. And of course, they got their revenge in the PAC-12 Championship. But no one expected a blowout win in the playoffs like this?!? #WOW
2. How embarrassed should the Seminoles be? The only two teams this season to allow the Ducks to score 59 points or more, are Cal and South Dakota. #FSUoverrated
3. They should be even more embarrassed by the lack of sportsmanship, when most of the team made a beeline to the locker room, instead of going on the field and shaking hands with the Ducks. #lame
4. The last time a team was this embarrassed in a major bowl game, was in the 2005 Orange Bowl where Oklahoma was plastered by USC, 55-19. In that game, USC had the Sooners shellshocked by halftime, but the Sooners never gave up, and scored 9 points in the 4th quarter. #solame
5. You know where I'm going with this one, don't you? Unlike the 2004 Sooner squad, this FSU team didn't just lose, they quit. And they didn't just quit, but they quit early, before the start of the 4th quarter. #quitters
6. Marcus Mariota's performance showed why he absolutely deserved the Heisman, and deserves to be the top pick at the NFL draft. He's been showing his skills off for the last three years, he'll be ready in the NFL on day 1. You know he'll get picked #1 by a really crappy team, but let's hope that Philly sells out and moves up in the draft to grab Mariota. You know that'll be a dream come true. #badass
7. I wrote two months ago that I thought the four-team playoff would be Alabama, Oregon, Ohio State and TCU. Instead, the playoff committee chose FSU over TCU, perhaps out of pressure of leaving out the only undefeated team from the playoffs. With FSU's blowout loss and TCU's blowout win, I think it's fair to say that they picked wrong and I picked right. Likewise, all the bellyaching by Baylor fans, who thought that they belonged, were shown the door in a nail-biter loss to Michigan State. #TCUdeservedmore
8. Going back to a Rose Bowl interview earlier this week, Winston said that Mariota was all business while Winston was a more playful guy. It turns out, the smart guy won, with 400 yards total (338 passing, 62 rushing), while the fun guy lost. It wasn't even close. Mariota made the right decisions and had the Ducks in control, while Winston was combative with his coach, flat out missed his throws, and had an unforced error when he fumbled the ball as he fell backwards, untouched. #smartswin
9. Oregon broke all sorts of Rose Bowl records (many of them, held by USC), and the one that matters a lot, is total offense, previously held by USC, who blew out Illinois in 2008. But watch out for 2015, because USC's offense will be crazy good. #highpoweredoffense 
10. And finally, thanks to the Ducks, FSU is no threat to USC's (and Miami's) historical college football 34-game winning streak. Go Ducks, Trojans and Seahawks! #Winners