Happy Thanksgiving.

I'm thankful for a dog that amuses me, who never seems to grow old, and football on Thanksgiving.

Was shopping Eddie Bauer website and...

... I came across this.  I wonder why the delay?

10 Reasons why USC got pwned by the Bruins.

1. The defense's 3-man front could not reach the quarterback. No surprise here, when you've got 5 on 3. When they switched to a traditional 4-man front (with the rush linebacker up on the line), they performed better.
2. The defense blitzed so little during the season that they looked like they didn't know how to blitz.  Rushing 5 or 6 players, only to have them stood up at the line of scrimmage, left the secondary exposed.
3. The o-line had trouble handling twists and stunts of the basic 4-man rush, so when UCLA blitzed with 5+, the outcome was predictable.
4. Even when there was space in front, the quarterback did not tuck the ball and run.  In previous games he's taken advantage of the defense, but against UCLA he didn't.
5. They looked like they didn't do any game planning. 90% of the time, it was as though they'd never seen the Bruins play.
6. A team with an offense that had previously used the wide receiver bubble screen with few positive results in live games, could not figure out how to defend the wide receiver bubble screen. I guess this just points to the defense's consistent inability to defend the bubble screen, whether against another team's offense or their own in practice.
7. The coaching staff got out-coached at halftime and the offense came out of the locker room without a sense of urgency while the defense could not get a stop.  It's telling that in their four losses, USC had scored a total of just 3 points in the third quarter -- see the charts at the bottom.
8. The players are extremely talented, but sometimes the most-talented players made mistakes at the worst time.  
9. Sark screwed up the offensive play calls at critical moments. Just once, I'd like to see a rollout with multiple options, instead of tricking no one with a run up the gut at the goal line, or likewise on 4th down. And more to the point, when your o-line is getting beat, why would you expect them to miraculously get a push to convert two yards?
10. Yes, the sanctions hurt. At almost every position except the o-line, the third-string players are all walk-ons or former walk-ons. When a player gets injured or is otherwise unavailable, the game changes significantly as the talent level drops off. Had those juniors who'd left for the NFL draft (but failed to get drafted) stayed, the team would have been three-deep at multiple critical positions.

The lack of consistency:

In wins
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Points scored, ave	15	8	10	4
Points allowed, ave	-2	-6	-5	-6
In losses
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Points scored, ave	8	8	1	10
Points allowed, ave	-5	-12	-8	-9
In all games
	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4
Points scored, ave	12	8	7	7
Points allowed, ave	-3	-8	-6	-7

Ever seen what a Flash cookie looks like?

I use a Flash blocker extension in Chrome, called FlashControl.  Doing so allows me to block a lot of crap.  It also allows me to see when a site is using Flash to track me.

Those blocks are the pieces of Flash that I did not grant rights to -- essentially Flash cookies.

It's not quite the same as a standard cookie, but it nonetheless operates in the same way. To manage your Flash data, you have to use Adobe's manager, here.

Not to make you paranoid, but just about everyone is tracking you.

10 Thoughts for November 18, 2014

1. Technology: The first consumer hardware that Nokia produced after jettisoning its mobile phone division and its former CEO Stephen Elop, to Microsoft? An Android tablet.  That says a lot about what Nokia's engineers and management really thought about Windows Phone and Stephen Elop, don't you think?
2. Security: I am soooo excited that my credit union has put 2FA into place!  We're talking ahead of the curve, where most banking institutions have not yet moved to 2FA.
3. Internet: You know, it's a damned good thing that I don't use my Yahoo email account for important stuff.  It's been suffering a lot of short interruptions these past few days.
4. Easter Egg: This is an older one. Using Google's voice search in Android, say, "Up, up, down, down, left, right, left, right."  Only works if you do a voice search.
5. Easter Egg: This one is a day old. Using Google search, say or type in, "roll a die". Also, "flip a coin."
6. Tests: Take this test on reading facial expressions.  I scored 17 out of 20. Maybe it's because I'm INFP?  Actually, I don't believe in the limiting Myers-Briggs / Carl Jung systems, so, whatever.  It's all just for amusement.
7. Geopolitics: Putin must be concerned that his popularity is about to tank, because he's just offered the oddest quote about the US, that only appeals to Russian nationalism: "They do not want to humiliate us, they want to subdue us, solve their problems at our expense."  I had to laugh, because the US has done practically nothing to subdue Russia -- ask any US conservative.  The US has not reinstated missile defense systems, nor pivoted back to the cold war.  Further, Russia is in economic trouble, not the US.  The US is doing quite well, thank you very much, compared to almost all other parts of the world.  Perhaps Putin's wall is crumbling?
8. Politics: Keystone XL vote to overcome the 60-vote filibuster failed in the Senate, but then, I really didn't think Mary Landrieu's runoff chances would have improved, anyway.  Meanwhile, Senate Republicans blocked a bill to limit NSA spying, saying that they didn't want to handcuff the NSA in its anti-terrorism duties.
9. Climate: This rendering by NASA, of simulations of atmospheric CO2, is rather cool.  In the comment section, you'll find the usual climate denier talking points, which, having done the research already, I can sit back and laugh at them.  Suffice to say, these people really don't know what they're talking about; not that I'm an expert, but I do spend much more time researching the various arguments on all sides, to know their weaknesses.
10. Football: I want to reiterate what I wrote last Wednesday about the college football playoffs.  The following teams will make the playoffs: Oregon, TCU, Alabama, Ohio State.  Like I said would happen, MSU was knocked off their perch on top, and while they remain in the top-4 for now, they still have to play at Ole Miss, and Ole Miss has been on the upward swing for a few years now, whereas MSU is more like a golden season with lots of seniors.  I'm still confident that FSU will lose a game, and that the committee will chose TCU over FSU by way of strength of schedule.  Regardless of who makes it into the playoffs, it seems that we could end up with as many as 7 1-loss teams with only 4 playoff spots available -- that would make for an interesting challenge for the committee.

Ninja Strikers...ruh roh!

I said that with my single 6-star ninja in hand, I was coming after those of you who spent tons of money to upgrade to a full lineup of 6-star ninjas.

That time is now.

Imagine what'll happen when I get a second and third 6-star ninja. I might not even need a third 6-star ninja to achieve world domination.

I'm going to monopolize the top spot and no one -- not even the developers with the half dozen software bugs that keep stealing things from me -- will stop me.

Well, that is until I get bored being at the top of the mountain, unchallenged.  Once you've beaten everyone far stronger than you, I think the novelty of it wears off.

10 Thoughts for November 17, 2014

1. Video: If you haven't seen the Super Bad Mario videos, you're missing out.  It's what I'd call a guilty pleasure -- you'll see what I mean.
2. Internet: I'm stuck in an odd spot right now.  I'm trying to return that plumbing part that did not quite fit, but the problem is, I need to print out the return label and RMA tag, but I can't at this moment.  You see, one of the things that I had ordered, aside from this plumbing part, was a new power supply for my recently deceased unit that is attached to my printer.  Ha.
3. Internet: And of course, I had to follow up that prior post about waiting to get my power supply.  I got it, tried it, and it didn't work.  I don't know if it was the power supply or the printer, but I think that the new power supply was defective.  So, now, to return this part, I have to go buy a new printer anyway.  Funny how this whole thing ended up.
4. Space: Well, Philae has gone to sleep, because of low battery reserves.  It should wake up occasionally as the battery slowly recharges, so there's hope.  But space exploration is hard (a comet is harder than a planet) and sometimes frustratingly so, especially when the time between launch and final destination is measured in several years or a decade in the case of Rosetta / Philae.
5. Football: Does a 9-0 Marshall deserve any consideration in the college football playoffs?  I don't think so. As a member of a mid-major conference, they haven't played a single game against a power-5 team.  That should be seen as a low-risk and therefore low-reward schedule. If they want consideration, they need to play the big boys in their non-conference schedule, instead of other mid-majors and FCS teams.  As such, they're not even ranked in the top-25 by the playoff committee, even as the AP and Coaches' Polls have them ranked at 21.
6. Football: The Trojans would like to thank the Beavers.  Well done, Beavs.  USC still in the hunt, are you kidding me?  Sark and the Trojans may yet redeem those terrible losses this year.
7. Football: So, right after OSU turned the PAC-12 South into a wide-open battle, Disney booked the USC - UCLA game on ABC in prime time for next Saturday night -- no kidding, less than an hour following the game, ESPN already had it listed.  Gonna be epic, I think, but regardless of who wins on Saturday, the South won't be decided until the final week of the season.  Meanwhile, the North was determined last week when Oregon beat Stanford, knocking the last contender out of race.  What happened to Stanford?
8. Football: It's just too bad that Seattle's o-line is really bad without Max Unger in there.  Before Unger left the game, Marshawn Lynch averaged 5.7 yards per run.  Following Unger's departure in the 4th quarter, two Lynch runs gained just 4 yards.  So, on 4th and 1, with the Chiefs selling out on defending the run, why would you hand the ball off to Lynch up the middle? I'm baffled at Bevell's playcalling, here.  Why not slip the TE out into the flat with a QB rollout?  Why not throw the bubble screen?  I'm just as confused why they'd try to pass for a TD in a floater to the corner of the end zone, when a tailback wheel route would give your best runner the space to grab and go with momentum, or if that were foiled, you'd at least have Wilson able to extend the play and improvise -- something he'd been successful with, most of the game.
9. Geopolitics: When you're the 6th largest country, by rank of Purchasing Power, but placed at the end of the front row.  And when you have to deny rumors that you're leaving early because of the shellacking you're getting over Ukraine.  Or why you're not that guy, Mr. Superstar.  That's how you know no one respects you, outside of your country.
10. Holidays: It's not even Thanksgiving and there are pre-Black Friday sales.  We live in strange times.  I imagine the near-future will bring us pre-pre-Black Friday sales starting November 1st.

10 Thoughts for November 14, 2014

1. Internet: My attempts to save money on plumbing parts by ordering it online didn't fare so well. It turns out, my part is only applicable to the models built after 2005. Same model, but pre-2005 was a slightly different version. As I put the old part and the new part next to each other, it was clear that the spacing of the valves were different, by about 2mm. Go figure. And online, the description does not highlight this fact. Of course I already had the wall open and the part removed, plus I had shut the water valves off (in-wall), and the hot water valve's thread is already worn, so I decided to take it to Geo Morlan and get the right part, and that's where the guy told me about the pre-2005 versions being different than the post-2005 units. I'm blaming Delta for using the same model number but altering the valve design.
2. Plumbing: So, funny thing: I couldn't get the collar back on because it wouldn't get past the o-ring.  I even added some grease to it.  So I went to YouTube to see if anyone else had ways to pull it off.  Surprise, surprise, but no one showed the collar going back on with the o-ring.  I went back, tried it again, and for some odd reason -- perhaps the grease soaked in? -- but the collar finally slipped over the o-ring.  Awesome.  I think.  Good for another 10 years or so, the guy at Geo Morlan plumbing told me.  BTW, those folks at Geo Morlan are automatic -- they know inside out anything you need to know about plumbing.
3. Plumbing: Oh, and one important advice that I wanted to mention about doing any sort of plumbing work.  When you DIY, I strongly urge you to do it on a weekday, during normal work hours.  Take a half day off if you need to.  You see, if you run into an emergency and you're panicking, you're going to have a very difficult time getting the parts you need or a professional available and nearby.  Sure, they do have on-call plumbers available all hours of the day, but you're going to pay a crazy premium for it, and they still might not have the part you need.  This is why I performed my work in the early afternoon, just in case something went wrong.
4. Space: Just as I thought was the case when I looked at the first image sent back by ESA's Philae, the lander indeed had critically missed its mark by a significant distance, and is now facing some stiff challenges, because of where it actually landed and how it's situated.  All is not lost, but the landing was nowhere the success that ESA thought it was, and I think anyone who watched the video stream live, could sense the concerns that were growing, even as they were celebrating.  Still, those images of the comet are spectacular.  So when do the comet mining operations begin?
5. Weather: So, the Polar Vortex and a storm front collided over Oregon on Thursday, but because the Polar Vortex brought with it a ton of extremely dry air, most of the moisture actually evaporated before it even hit. When it finally did hit, it was mixed precipitation (rain, freezing rain, pellets, snow).  Being warm enough that it wasn't snowing, meant that I was able to drive to Geo Morlan to get the part I needed.
6. Football: Wow, USC scored 31 points in the first half, then fell asleep and scored just 7 points in the second half.  You could see the freak out expressions on the faces of the USC coaches as Cal was just one onside kick recovery away from possibly tying the game and sending it into overtime.  If you watch the end of the post-game press conference, Sark's showed his impatience with questions over the frequent late-game falloffs.  In 10 games played, four were decided in the last minute, with USC ahead in each game, but in two -- Utah and ASU -- they lost.
7. Football: Yes, USC does fall asleep.  In the 10 games played, USC has outscored opponents 129 - 22 in the first quarter, but then that margin completely falls away to 223 - 211 in the remaining three quarters.
8. Holidays: I completed my design for my holiday greeting cards (three different card designs) and ordered them via Moo, to take advantage of the 25% discount deadline of Nov. 18.  I've tried Cafe Press to do cards, but the quality is nowhere close to that of Moo.  Their business cards are far superior to anything you'll get from other online shops and, when it comes to customization, there's no match.
9. Geopolitics: You know, I don't quite understand the point of Russia's display of naval power, near Australian waters, upon the G20 meetings in Brisbane.  Is it to imply a threat to the other G20 nations not aligned with Russia?  It's not like the Russian navy poses a threat to anyone, when the US' 7th fleet can outflank the entire Russian navy.  Or maybe it's a ridiculous show of force for the home crowd in Russia, who are subject to propaganda by their state-controlled media?
10. Internet: AT&T said yesterday that it would halt investment in its rollout of its fiber network, until the issues surrounding Net Neutrality were resolved.  In response today, the FCC asked for information on AT&T's announcement, with particular point that it appeared that AT&T was backtracking on its promise, with regard to its attempts to secure federal approval for its attempted acquisition of DirectTV.  Of course, my theory is, AT&T shot itself in the foot if it thinks that the market won't use this pause as an opportunity to beat AT&T, and that includes Google Fiber.  Remember, Google Fiber is set to announce the cities that have qualified for an immediate rollout, before the end of the year.

10 Thoughts for November 13, 2014

1. Space: That's so European.  When watching the live streaming video of ESA's coverage of the Rosetta comet landing, one couldn't help but notice how ESA had over two dozen speakers talk.  The science took up a dozen minutes in total; the speeches took hours, and in the end they all drank champagne, except for the scientists still trying to figure out what went wrong.  The crowd did not want to end on a down note, so when a scientist started to describe some of the problems they were having -- a gas cartridge not firing and the hooks not deploying -- the live stream coverage quickly broke away back to the emcee as she paraphrased the scientist by explaining that Philae had landed.
2. Space: The Philae lander has sent back its first image from the comet's surface, which, if you compare photos from the area it was targeting, to the image before it was about to touch down, it sure looks like it might have missed its mark a bit and got stuck next to a rocky spot rather than a flat area, no?
3. Ukraine: You gotta be kidding me...Russia is at it again, sending troops into Ukraine? Putin is truly attempting to wag the dog away from Russia's impending economic collapse.
4. YouTube: We know a lot more details about YouTube Music Key, the subscription music video service, now.  It's a twofer program (as I had previously suspected), where for one price you'll get both YouTube Music Key and Google Play Music All Access.  The key here is that you'll get YouTube music videos without ads.  Which of course means that if you want to stream music video mixes, you'll be seeing more ads than before.  But it also means that YouTube has now built up a library of mixes for you, already -- a new thing you'll find in your personalized YouTube page without having to join Music Key.
5. Portland: The proposed Street Fund, meant to help the backlog of streets in disrepair, will dedicate just 47% of the tax money to repairing streets.  I've never heard of such a ridiculous proposal, ever.
6. Internet: Fire Tom Wheeler.  His attempt to state that his department is beholden to no one, is a farce, as he is supposed to work for the American people.  The American people spoke loudly and clearly when we sent in millions of comments to the FCC against his previous proposal to cement rules that would have destroyed Net Neutrality.  Fire his ass, now.
7. Football: Let me answer the obvious question as to why Jameis Winston's lawyer requested a delay of his student code conduct meeting at Florida State University, over a 2-year old rape allegation.  The delay was strategically timed to avoid being kicked out of school before FSU gets a chance to play in at least one bowl game, and perhaps two (the national championship on January 12).  With the minimum 10 school days between the hearing and the official decision, it means that the soonest Winston would receive any punishment would be January 8, when taking the FSU academic calendar into consideration.  Oh, and it's also long after the Heisman vote and award.  This, after his lawyer complained about the long delay between the original complaint and the previously scheduled hearing.
8. The other Football: Via SI, "The Russia 2018 bid gave the “dog-ate-my-homework” excuse to Garcia, saying pertinent e-mails and documents had been on computers that were leased and returned to their owner. The owner told Garcia the computers had been destroyed. Russia was still cleared by Eckert." So, FIFA is itself so corrupt as to excuse the laughable BS from Russian officials.  No really, read the SI summary of the attempts to curry favor with FIFA officials from multiple nations.  That FIFA accepted Russia's excuse is just telling how corrupt FIFA is, at its core.
9. Android: The moment that we've all been waiting for has begun, Android Lollipop is now rolling out to Nexus devices.  This is why we buy Nexus devices, after all.  :D
10. Blog: A tiny note, that this blog passed the 100K views mark on Wednesday.  All-time traffic, in order of views: US, Russia, Germany, UK, France.  Apparently I don't insult Canada enough, because they came in 6th place -- sacrebleu! Les Canadiens avec les grandes tetons, ooh la la! (Channeling my inner South Park.)

10 Thoughts for November 12, 2014

1. Football: This quote sums up Mark Sanchez's night: "His supporting cast was infinitely better now with riches everywhere, a belated gift from the football Gods who owed him a solid." -- Manish Mehta, Daily News.
2. Football: According to ESPN, the CFB committee apparently has sent a message to teams, thinking that an undefeated season full of weak opponents will earn them an automatic.  I'm not so sure about that.  Mississippi State's got wins over worthless opponents like UT Martin, Southern Alabama, UAB and Southern Miss, but they're ranked #1.  Of course, I really don't think MSU will end up in the playoffs anyway.  They're just temporarily enjoying the view from on top.
3. Football: It can't be coincidence, that both Miami and BC have bye weeks before playing FSU, while Florida plays Eastern Kentucky before FSU.  Expect an upset along the way, and the room for the CFB to kick FSU out of the playoffs.  My playoff prediction, in order of rank: Oregon, TCU, Alabama, Ohio State.
4. Geopolitics: I'm curious what the Chinese President thinks of Vladimir Putin's actions with his wife, in front of the cameras.  This wasn't the first time he's tried to flirt (skip to last 11 seconds of video) with China's First Lady, after all -- instead of posing to face cameras, he's posing staring at the First Lady.
5. Geopolitics: So while Russia's president is trying to woo the Chinese First Lady, the presidents of the US and China were making huge plans on a bilateral agreement to slash greenhouse gases. Republicans, of course, were upset -- upset that they were caught off guard admiring Putin with adoring eyes, while POTUS did some real work negotiating with the Xi Jingping, that is.
6. Geopolitics: Remember when I said that Saudi Arabia's push for lower oil prices was surely a plan to punish Russia for its invasion of Ukraine?  It is working, insofar that Russia's economy is on the brink of a multi-year recession.  The irony of the Russian oil trade agreement with China, excluding USD, is that it cannot benefit from expanding oil exports to China while the Ruble-USD value falls.
7. Security: Who uses 2FA?  This website tracks who does and doesn't use 2FA.  I know that my credit union uses 2FA.
8. Temperature: I knew something was up when the central air kicked in, late in the afternoon -- the edge of the Polar Vortex descended upon us in Portland.  For the last 8 weeks or so, it's been moderate enough that I haven't had the unit kick in at all, and then in the afternoon it started up like we were in late December and the temperatures were dropping into the 30s.  The winds were howling mad, but though the temperature was above freezing the winds were so strong that shallow pools of water had already iced over by midnight.
9. Internet: FCC chair Tom Wheeler says he may ignore what Obama said, regarding Net Neutrality.  I say fire his ass, for ignoring the will of the American people who overloaded the FCC's system with comments in support of Net Neutrality.
10. Space: Trying to check in with ESA's Rosetta Mission and the landing on Comet 67P is a bit trying on the patience.  To start with, the entirety of the process takes more than 9 hours. And that process is left mostly to the imagination as the live video feed is that of the ESA mission control center and not of the actual landing -- which isn't going to be available in video form anyway, only photos.  If that isn't bad enough, the Livestream video channel is overloaded at times.  And don't get me started on the weird robotic anthropomorphism of a satellite and its lander offering emotional tweets, with the satellite retweeting its lander's tweets.

10 Thoughts for November 10, 2014

1. Video: Like steampunk?  You might enjoy the 2004 Japanese stylized movie, Casshern.  The ending is very much Japanese-like -- unfulfilling -- but the blended visuals are epic.
2. Road Trip: I've just finished building a map of a route that'll take me through 10 covered bridges in Oregon, from Pleasant Valley in Southeast Portland, south through Stayton, around Albany and Corvallis, and back to Portland.  It'll take a whole day to do.  You can follow it, if you wish: Map.  It's based off the Covered Bridge of Oregon Society's map, except, my map is precise (some of their placemarkers were completely off) and with a route plugged in. Note that Google Maps does not allow me to input more than 8 points to build a continuous route.
3. Football: Kaelin Clay's dropped football at the one yard line, and subsequent return for a TD by the Ducks, was most certainly a game-changer.  Had Clay held onto the ball as he walked into the end zone, the score would have been 14 - 0 and the Utes would have been playing defense with an extra step.  Instead, the stadium and team were confused and shaken while the Ducks got a fire lit under their butts.  I feel sorry for Kaelin Clay, but at the same time, mental discipline is an important attribute in sports and those who have it go on to do well while the rest tend to either fail or never become the player everyone thinks they could be.
4. Football: The Jets beating the Steelers was unexpected, but I had to laugh when I read that the Bieber had met for bible study with the Steelers, apparently inflicting the Bieber Curse on the Steelers.  I'm at a loss for words, as it seem a contradiction that Bieber goes to bible study (given his propensity for drugs, speeding and cursing).  Hey, it's all okay, so long as you've got a gold cross on a chain around your neck, right?
5. Internet: You know, I feel bad for all of those people who rent Comcast routers.  DOCSIS 3 router modems are available for the equivalent of 16 months of renting.  Oh, and there is the issue of Comcast's routers having their USB disabled -- seriously, it is referred online as "future capability".  But the worst indignation, is that Comcast is renting you that router modem while it is taking advantage of a split wireless channel on that modem to give other customers access to the bandwidth that you thought you had paid for, for your sole use.  I mention all this, because I was researching whether or not I could hook up an external drive to my friend's Comcast router modem, to enable them to access saved content.  It really bugs me that people complain about spending money, but can't see the savings right in front of them.
6. Internet: President Obama officially announced his support to reclassify broadband so that we can haz Net Neutrality.  The technoscenti are all on board while all the idiots who place politics ahead of everything else in their life, have taken to the internet to express their displeasure. The stupidity of conservatives, is that they don't realize that without Net Neutrality, tech titans could slow the speeds to conservative outlets compared to liberal ones.
7. Politics: While a majority of Americans have low confidence in President Obama, the world at large seems to have a very high opinion of him, which contrasts to what the world thought of George Bush.  While true that it had peaked when Obama was first elected, it still remains exceedingly higher than under Bush.  I think if you were to ask people of most other countries if they thought that their leaders performed better than Obama when it came to economic recovery, they'd almost all say that they'd prefer Obama.
8. Chromecast: So, I'd been having trouble with casting a video with the stable channel of Chrome with the update from two months ago, so I switched my laptop to the beta channel (my desktop was already on the beta channel), and it works fine, now.  That's a bit ironic, that the stable channel failed but the beta channel worked. 
9. Ferguson: It's just a guess, but I think most people know that officer Wilson will not be charged with any crimes, and are therefore bracing for the consequential rioting that will occur. I also think that the feds will decline to prosecute officer Wilson on civil rights violations.  It's just going to be too difficult to get a conviction on either manslaughter, homicide or civil rights violations, when the facts of the case include Michael Brown directly assaulting the officer and trying to take his gun away.
10. Internet: Just ordered plumbing parts via Amazon -- technically I had a cart full of other stuff but weren't of high importance, whereas the plumbing parts were, and once I added them to the cart, I completed the transaction.  I had not thought to do so previously, but the savings are substantial over brick and mortar stores, even ones like Home Depot.  If you factor in the cost of gasoline to drive back and forth, we're talking a 30% savings, you know?  Next up: groceries?  Oh, there is one downside: My order of 7 different items is being shipped via 5 separate packages.  I can manage.

The US smart phone wars are over.

I'm declaring the US smart phone wars, over.  Reviewing comScore's tracking since December 2009, Google reached stability two years ago, while Apple achieved stability about 16 months ago.  Meanwhile, the market share of Blackberry and Microsoft have bottomed out and stayed there, and smartphone penetration has slowed down.  This seems to show that the US smart phone market has fully matured, making it difficult for anyone to gain on Google in a meaningful way.

So, can we stop talking about the smart phone wars?  We can still talk tablet wars, but eventually even that will end up with Google (Android) on top.  It's inevitable.

Peak penetration?

Blackberry's epic slide has finally reached bottom ... and stayed there.

Microsoft hasn't done much since hitting 2.9% bottom, currently at 3.6%.

Apple has been relatively stable for 16 months now.

Google peaked two years ago and now remains stable on top.

10 Thoughts for November 6, 2014

1. Football: I think it's weird that there are rumblings in SF about getting rid of Jim Harbaugh.  I guess memories are short, but for nearly a decade the 49ers were irrelevant, and the moment he stepped in, he boosted their fortunes by changing their attitude.  I hate the guy (as any Seahawks+Trojans fan would), but I can't argue against his ability to coach -- not after seeing what he did for Stanford and now the 49ers.  Oh those fickle fans down in the Bay Area.
2. Why?: Apparently frostbite is acceptable for the tips of your fingers, otherwise I can't figure out why there are such things as winter gloves without finger tips.
3. Alcohol: 10 Barrel Brewing out of Bend, Oregon, sold out.  They are currently renovating the Pearl District space that Mellow Mushroom abandoned, earlier this year.  It's too bad, because Portlanders love to support microbrewers, but now that 10 Barrel has sold out to a national brand, it's pretty much a foregone conclusion that people will simply prefer to go across the street to Rogue Ales, or three blocks to Deschutes.
4. Politics: I had seen an excerpt of Ted Cruz speaking with CBS News, and he practically celebrated the GOP takeover as his win, benefiting Ted Cruz, all because of what Ted Cruz did.  Apparently the world of politics revolved around Ted Cruz and the rest of us were clueless.
5. Politics: Antecedent to Alison Grimes' loss, I have a suggestion when asked if you voted for an unpopular president, in a rhetorical attempt to refute your independence:  "Yes, I voted for him -- it's not like he was a Republican.  Look, he might be of the same party as me, but his office is a separate branch than the one that I'm aspiring to join, and once in office I have a different duty to Americans than the White House...you know, unlike what happened between 2001 and 2006."
6. Politics: Ezra Klein says that Obama is facing his Kobayashi Maru.  True, and to fix the game, I believe you have to deliver a message of attack that can therefore be reinforced throughout the next two years, to build anger over GOP.  In other words, the game isn't how you deal with the GOP, but the battle to reinforce a negative message on the GOP so that you win, regardless of what you do.  I suggest: GOP's war against Science and Common Sense.  It can't be that hard, considering the actions the GOP took in 1994 that led to...the reelection of Bill Clinton.
7. IKEA: Dude, IKEA Portland has $8 turkey dinners!  And in the bistro, they've got apple pie froyo!  Imma become a regular this month at IKEA, as soon as I get rid of my cough.  Once again, IKEA Portland is better than your IKEA.
8. Internet: I'm starting to get the hang of using Wix to build my website.  Way back at my previous employer -- a decade ago, now -- I'd rebuilt the company's website, by hand, in Adobe Flash.  All custom Actionscript -- that was a lot longer and harder to do.  One of these days, maybe I'll resurrect that website.  Right now, my only complaint is, OMG I've got so many words to fill in, for descriptions, etc., and the image app is a little buggy for some reason, but it works well enough.  I'm split on whether or not to pay for ad-free, right now.  We'll see.
9. Economics: I understand why Americans believe that their children will be worse off than they are, but to blame Democrats is an example of a reinforced logical fallacy.  This trend did not start under Democrats; regardless of how the economic recovery went, wage stagnation and job security were issues that predated President Obama.  It began under President Reagan when he slashed the top marginal tax rate while flipping the switch on globalized free trade.  Globalized free trade, by any economic textbook, is the most efficient means to lower prices, but it comes at a cost of structural unemployment.  Democrats and some Republicans have tried in the past to address structural unemployment by providing educational subsidies via grants, cheaper loans and tax breaks.  But Republicans have also gone to war against re-education of Americans by attempting to slash the federal grant program, and during the debt ceiling fight, were partially successful.
10. Space: Do you have Chromecast, or the ability to cast a tab and video?  NASA's running an experiment (to test camera durability), called High Definition Earth Viewing.  If you've got the free bandwidth to do so, you can cast the always-live streaming HD video from the ISS, which switches between three different cameras.  Better yet, if you have tons of free bandwidth, you might also consider streaming SOMA.FM's ... wait for it ... Space Station music channel at the same time!  It's a total trip, and you can get your geek on! :D

To those of you who play Ninja Strikers. (updated)

I'm coming for you.  And I'm not paying a dime to get ahead.

Two weeks ago I got my first 6-star ninja after collecting 1.2M coins and using them to merge six 5-star green ninjas.  And I'm not done.  In three weeks or less I'll have gained my second 6-star ninja.

You might see me in the global rankings.  I'm that player above so many of you with multiple 6-star ninjas.  Yes, I'm that good, and my rising scores will haunt you.

Soon.

And to the people who've perpetuated and added new buggy coding in Ninja Strikers game that keeps stealing my coins, and haven't given me the rewards I was supposed to get: My shaming of your paying players is my revenge, and you can't do a damned thing about it without violating the Google Play terms of service.

I'm coming for you.

---

Update: I've got a screen shot to show you how Ninja Strikers is cheating players out of rewards they're supposedly giving you.  The red arrow shows that I'm supposed to have the Last Spurt available, but the yellow arrow clearly shows that it is being ignored as the game is asking me for gems to use Last Spurt!  

Is it a scam, or are the programmers ignoring it, or are they incapable of fixing the problem they introduced earlier this year?  I might send this in to Google, if they do not fix it in the next week or two.

The 2014 Midterms.

Oregon results

I'll update this number later, but right now turnout appears to be headed towards a 16 year low.

No surprises here, as Jeff Merkley won convincingly by 17 points, over Monica Wehby.  At the same time, Dennis Richardson halved the gap of the most-recent poll, losing to John Kitzhaber by 3.5 points.  I reiterate, that with the failures of Cover Oregon, it was remarkable that any Republican couldn't beat out the incumbent governor.  Add onto that the recent issues of Kitzhaber's fiance's troubles, but still pulled out the win, it's quite clear that Oregon is blue, except for rural areas.

Now I have no idea why two years ago voters turned down the opportunity to legalize marijuana, but this year, voters chose to legalize it by nearly 10 percentage points.  I suppose it required seeing the massive tax revenues in Colorado and Washington that finally convinced voters in Oregon to support legalization?

GMO labeling, as it stands right now, down by 2.5 points, is going to fail.  But the failure here, it seems, is that the anti-labeling groups (Monsanto and DuPont) overwhelmingly outspent pro-labeling groups to obfuscate what the law would have required.

National results

I have to admit, I really did think that the Democratic ground game would make up the difference in polls, but it's starting to look like Democratic voters were turned off in extremely high numbers, allowing Republicans to retake the Senate and keep much of their seats around the country in all levels of government -- well, except of course in the bluest of blue states.

I would have been right, had Democrats participated in equal levels as Republicans.  Of course, I did not expect this much disengagement.  So for instance, in 2010 (the last midterm election) in Colorado, some 73% of eligible voters participated, but in 2014, that number has dropped to around 51% (numbers are not final, of course, as they're still being counted).  Go back to 2006, and the participation rate was 62%.

In Kansas in 2010, 857K voters cast ballots -- about 50% participation rate.  In 2014, the current total is around 800K, which at this level, is about 46% participation rate.

On why I was optimistic (but wrong)

So, about half a year ago I had been looking at a data set that I hinted at, back then.  Had I actually taken the time to track the data, I would have seen what was going on this year, but at the time, the snapshot showed that Democrats were faring okay.  This data set?  Gallup's tracking of party affiliation.  Their poll goes beyond most others, by asking people which way they lean.

My theory was, when you add Republicans and Republican-leaning, and subtract Democrats and Democratic-leaning, that gap and the direction it was going, would explain which way the general election was going.  The steeper the curve, the bigger the wave, the flatter the curve, the less change.

As I said, had I actually bothered to insert the data into a spreadsheet and put them to charts, I would have seen where 2014 was going.  Let's have a look-see, shall we?

In these charts, an upward slope would mean that the trend was benefiting Republicans.  When either the raw data or trend line goes above the green demarcation (zero differential), it means that there were more people affiliated with GOP and GOP-leaning than Democrats and Democrat-leaning.   In 2008, while the trend line was headed upward, the trend line remained far below the green line -- the Democrats may have lost some support but its support was extremely strong.  The result of the 2008 elections was a complete takeover of Congress and the White House.

In 2010, the trend line started out heavily in support of Democrats, but then steeply moved in favor of Republicans, crossing the green line during the summer of 2010,  This meant that Americans were aligned with Republicans, and as a result, we had a wave election where the US House shifted back to Republicans while the Senate remained in Democratic control but the gap had shrunk significantly.

In 2012, Republicans started out with a slight edge, but then the trend line shifted toward Democrats.  The slope of the trend line wasn't as steep as 2010, but because it had shifted into Democrats' favor, Democrats not only took the White House, but gained seats back in both the House and Senate, though they did not regain control of the House.

Finally, in 2014 you can see roughly three sections, here.  In late 2012 and early 2013, Democrats continued to hold a significant advantage.  From the summer of 2013 to the summer of 2014, things were still favorable for Democrats, but by a smaller margin.  Then, towards the end of summer, the trend shifted towards Republicans.  The last data point in this selection was the middle of October.  Had Gallup conducted another poll closer to the election, I'm certain that the trend line would have crossed the green line, as the raw data had already shifted toward Republicans.  Furthermore, the slope was not as steep as 2010, but closely resembled 2012's.  In turn, Republicans gained enough seats to flip the Senate, as well as gained seats in the House.

Combine the Democratic voter lack of enthusiasm and the trend towards Republicans, it is now clear that the GOP were going to win big.

So there it is.  Had I tracked the data closely, earlier this year, I would have seen this coming.  I had seen the data shift these past two months, but the data seemed noisy.  Once I had put the data down into the spreadsheet and inserted the trend line, it was clear that the GOP would win big.

Mea culpa.

10 Thoughts for November 4, 2014

1. Furniture: That IKEA Bekant powered sit/stand desk frame has disappeared from IKEA's site.  Dunno what happened, but it was only available in a couple of cities in the US anyway, making it somewhat moot.
2. Health: I find it difficult these days, to sleep on a normal circadian cycle, especially when I don't have an office to go to.  It turns out, I rotate in and out of normal sleep patterns, but I find it extremely appealing to work in the middle of the night / early morning, as there is absolutely zero noise, and the level of concentration is much higher.  It also goes without saying, that I am fond of walking late at night / early morning, as the silence is absolutely wonderful and the smell is not of vehicle exhaust and urban machinery, but of the wafting mix of baked goods, cooking beer, and the forest's air.  At least, these are the scents that I routinely experience in the Pearl District.
3. Internet: So, instead of playing around with a website template that I could then upload to a web-hosting site, I've been playing around with Wix, which uses an online HTML5 editor, and hosts your pages for you, and has pre-built widgets, and other content tools.  I'm a bit torn, because although I'd love to use Dreamweaver, it's geared more towards coding and scripts, rather than a quick and easy GUI.  And while Google Web Designer seems like a really cool tool (since it does HTML5-type animations and other goodies), it nonetheless requires more time than simply working off someone else's templates with a nice GUI editor, and right now I just need to get my landing page / portfolio out there.
4. Technology: Today, SketchUp 2015 was released.  I'm already paying my $95 / year maintenance fee, so it's a free (or, more precisely, prepaid) update for me.  The great news is, they now have a 64-bit version.
5. Technology: Apple may be facing a recall of its 128GB iPhone 6+ models.  No, it's not over Bendgate, although I would assume that over time, Bendgate will prove itself to be a real issue.  Consumer Report's analysis was flawed, insofar that its institutional testing comes nowhere near real-world use, and as such, it really is easy to bend the larger iPhone 6+.
6. TV: I don't watch live TV that often anymore, but when I do, they're almost always shows that are available next day on Hulu.  Most other shows now have an 8-day delay before showing up on Hulu or otherwise online, which means that if you miss one live episode, you're screwed.  Whereas, if you miss a show whose program is available next-day, you can easily catch up without problems in the storyline.  Of course, this is probably the opposite of what ABC and Fox hoped for, but that's what happens when you screw with my viewing habits.
7. Oil / Politics: You can't tell me that Saudi Arabia's announcement to cut oil prices for North America, isn't driven by geopolitical goals to denude Russian hegemony in Europe.  On the surface, it might look like an attempt to derail tar sand and shale oil extraction, by way of directing these price cuts to North America.  But these price cuts allow the US to massively increase its strategic reserves, and since oil is a global market, lower prices to NA also means lower prices elsewhere as traders redirect global sales.  So for instance, as SA contracts with the US grow, Argentinian contracts with the US will plummet, forcing prices down globally.  Last year, China and Russia signed an oil agreement that would see China invest heavily into Russian oil delivery infrastructure.  With cheaper oil, suddenly those infrastructure costs might be excessively high compared to global oil prices, and the return on investment is elongated beyond the life of the infrastructure.
8. Football: I fully expect Oregon Ducks to have their best year, ever.  I think Mariota will win the Heisman and the Ducks may be playing for a national title.  With regards to Mariota, voters will be looking for a man with strong character, to stand apart from several of the last winners who'd been dogged by scandal throughout their college careers.  Without a doubt, with a healthy o-line (you've seen me constantly harping on the importance of a good o-line) Oregon will not lose another game in the PAC-12, including the championship.  This is Oregon's year, finally.
9. Football: I do lament the possibility of Marcus Mariota going first in the NFL draft, though, especially if he ends up with the Jets.  The Jets really do have serious issues on the o-line that will devastate any quarterback they select.  I'd rather he get picked by a team that specifically needed a quarterback, and not a revamp of the o-line.
10. Politics: I dropped my ballot off with about 14 minutes to go.  :D  That's the way I roll.  Well not really, it's just that being sick and all, I delayed doing anything on my ballot for two weeks.  The sad part about going through the voter pamphlet was that most of the initiatives were one-sided with zero arguments against them, making it really difficult to find out what the opposition felt about them. Which of course means that in fact, yes, I do read both sides.

10 Thoughts for November 3, 2014

1. Health: Damn, I still have this cough.  It's not anywhere as rough as it used to be, but three weeks of coughing is tough.
2. Football: I guess it's a mix of schadenfreude and irony, that Mark Sanchez took over for Nick Foles late in the 1st quarter of the Eagles - Texans game, and delivered, while Jets fans bemoan their situation where Michael Vick, starting for injured Geno Smith, fails to deliver a win, sinking the Jets to 1 - 8.  That's what happens when you kick out the quarterback that took you to two straight AFC championship games, when the real problem was always your shaky o-line and a lack of quality possession receivers.
3. Football: Best wishes for Conner Halliday and a swift recovery from a broken fibula, and at least a chance to show what he can do at the next level.  He was close enough to breaking a few PAC-12 records, but then had his leg crushed under the weight of Leonard Williams falling down as WSU's center pulled him down from behind.  I think everyone who saw Halliday screaming in pain and clenching his fists, cringed at the thought of what just happened.
4. Football: Some will see the final score of the USC - WSU game and think that it was a blowout, but in reality, at one point in the 3rd quarter WSU had more yards than USC and had been driving down the field with ease.  That 3rd quarter stop to force a WSU field goal was pivotal, followed by two straight Trojan TDs, sealing the deal.  Also, finally, we saw USC simply take advantage of what their opponent's defense was giving them -- the vertical game.
5. Football: Okay, one last point on football.  Seattle won an ugly game against the lowly (and winless) Oakland Raiders where a quarter of its starters were out with injuries.  The o-line was terrible, and Wilson could barely manage a passing game.  Meanwhile the Rams just beat SF in Levi's Stadium while Arizona took down Dallas.   The NFC West is not where most people thought it would be, but I always thought that Arizona was primed to be tougher this year than last.
6. TV: I did not know this, but apparently the big reason why many older but very popular TV shows haven't ever made it to DVD, was because of the difficulties securing music rights for songs used in TV shows.  At the time of those shows, it was never conceived that these shows would have a long viewing life, such that contracts for royalties were limited to a few years following the original broadcast.
7. Politics: I am really excited to see what the results are from tomorrow's midterm elections.  Those projections you're seeing and hearing about, are based on either pure polling or a mix of polling plus past results and a few other external factors.  I think the polls are important, insofar that nearly all of the key battleground seats are within 5 percentage points, which mean that if you add up a solid ground game plus margin of error, these races are toss-ups.  When you see 79% odds that Republicans will take over the Senate, you have to understand that it is not impossible nor is it improbable that Democrats will maintain control.  These seats are toss-ups: Alaska, Colorado, Georgia, Iowa, Kansas, Louisiana, New Hampshire, and North Carolina.  Does that sound naively optimistic?  Maybe, but the Democrats have invested heavily, through different operations, this year in a massive ground in most of those battleground states.  While Republicans are claiming that they've invested heavily in the ground game, following the Obama playbook from 2012, I believe we're seeing the "Windows Phone following Android" effect, where the trailing team forgets that it has to work faster and harder to actually catch up to the front-running operation, not merely target its current operations.  So yeah, I'm excited to see what happens.
8. Technology: You should explore remote areas around the world with Google Maps.  When you zoom in, you'll discover amazing Android Photospheres that allow you to immerse yourself in these difficult to access places.  Some great places to explore: Tibet and Southeast Asia.  It's phenomenal the reach and effect Android has had in this world.
9. Technology: I'm unabashedly a fan of Google Docs, but sometimes you need much more powerful tools / functions to create and edit in your documents.  WPS has been absolutely fabulous as a substitute for Microsoft Office.  For the better part of a decade, I've used Open Office and its predecessor, Star Office.  WPS is much better, including the fact that WPS has Android / iOS / Windows / Linux apps, making its distribution far wider than Open Office.  Note: If you need VBA / macro scripts, you should consider paying the $70 for the Pro version, but most of us won't need to use macros, especially since viruses take advantage of enabled macros in docs.
10. Health: It was a bit weird to find out that I had watched Brittany Maynard's final video, hours after the fact that she had actually died.  In her video, she intimated that she was willing to live past the date -- Nov. 1 -- that she had originally planned for, were she able to maintain her quality of life.  Now, you have to remember that in April, she got a 6-month diagnosis, so November 1st was a bit of a stretch -- and in fact she'd recently had two seizures in a single day.  I understand the multiple facets of this issue, and as such, I believe the most compassionate treatment is to allow everyone to decide their own fate according to their feelings.  Some folks cannot and do no not want to further deal with the physical pain of many terminal diseases, while others have a desire to live out every moment of life as long as possible regardless of the effort and pain to be endured.  And then there are those who are devout Christians who believe that suicide will exclude them from God's kingdom, and as such, see the pain as their own crucifixion to be endured.  Can we reasonably say that one size fits all?  I do know that a true Libertarian would refuse to dictate that one size fits all.

Rental vacancy rates, in three charts.

I started out exploring the US Census data on rental vacancy rates in the top US metropolitan areas, to see what was going on in Portland.  I ended up grabbing a few more metropolitan areas to see if there was some sort of story to be found.  Sure enough, there were three distinct charts that explained the Great Recession experience, relative to rental housing. Note: the US Census data only goes back to 2005, in this case.

I haven't explored all 75 metropolitan areas, but I suspect most of the regions could be categorized in these three charts.

In the first chart, you can't readily distinguish any effect of the Great Recession of 2008 - 2009.  It's quite remarkable that the recession had extremely limited effect on the rental vacancy rate.  For the most part, rental vacancies steadily decreased from 2005, and are currently in great shape compared to 2005.

In the second chart, you can see that there was a modest bump in vacancy rates during the start of the recession.  Overall, the vacancy rates are modest to begin with, but between 2005 and the most recent quarter (Q3-2014) the vacancy rate is relatively flat.

In the third chart, it's quite obvious that the vacancy rates were high to begin with, and there was a significant bump during the recession.  But you can clearly see that the overall trend is downward, between 2005 and the most recent quarter.  These markets had the wildest fluctuation, but is in much better shape than in was in, in 2005.

The lower the rate, the greater the pressure to build new apartments and economic growth.  But then, the higher the rate, the better pricing power for renters.

It seems, that Seattle, San Francisco, Portland and Los Angeles all have a big need for apartment rentals, and thus, a lot of room for economic growth.