The Cascadia-Duniway-Tillicum-WyEast light rail bridge in Portland.

I was visiting my project today and I couldn't resist taking a photo on my way out, of the light rail bridge currently under construction next door.  They're in the process of selecting the name of the bridge, and you can tell them what you think.

T'was 57 degrees or so, and sunny. Nice day.

One of the best views of the bridge and South of Downtown will be from this room (below).

A shout out to the guys doing the gypsum wallboard work on my project...the curves are smooth and they use handsaws to precisely cut around pipes and openings on the curved walls that it looks like casework tolerances. I will have full pictures when the project is complete.

Playing around with SketchUp Pro 2014. Yes, NEW and IMPROVED! (Updated)

So I guess I got things out of order.  I saw the post yesterday hinting at something coming down the pipe regarding SketchUp and 3DWarehouse, but the automated email notice got stuck in my spam folder so I didn't see it until an hour ago, or about 8 hours after it was initially sent out.  I ended up noticing that there were 3 posts under the SketchUp Blog RSS feed, and that's how I discovered that there was an update email waiting for me.

A little bitty thing about that email: If you're using Pro, you'll need that email so that you can copy and paste the license info into SU when you first open it up.  It does a cool little trick of reading the pasted info and searching for the relevant info it needs to register your SU Pro software.

I haven't gone through everything just yet -- still playing around -- but this one related improvement related to SketchUp has really made my day.  Through the 3DWarehouse, you can upload your model then on its page, there is a section that will allow you to copy an embed code, which will allow you to insert the viewer into a webpage, viewable from any WebGL-compatible browser.  See the model I built a couple of years ago, below.





I know, right? Kick ass!  The point of this, is that I can now use a light duty tablet to view models with clients, without having to drag my ginormous 17" laptop.

This is a major release, now with BIM support, by way of adding IFC classification to objects (structured data, for which you can create your own as well, but then we'll all end up with forked classification systems, which goes back to the problem of custom XML, etc.), and exporting to a cross-compatible (or so the hope is) BIM format, and auto-text features for LayOut, and of course, speed, speed, speed.

You can read the rest of the features here.

The one thing I'm not looking forward to, is setting up my environments with all of the extensions, scrapbooks, etc., from my SU2013 to m SU2014 folder, then getting rid of SU2013, then installing SU2014 on my desktop, and repeating the whole environment setup, again.  Yikes. :P

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Update: It looks like for now, even with WebGL enabled Chrome browser on an Android tablet, touch is not addressed for the moment, to make use of 3DWarehouse embedded models. Soon, hopefully.

10 Thoughts for February 27, 2014

1. I just wrote a "Dear John" letter to my former insurance agent.  (His first name really is John.)  I felt compelled to explain why I switch to Metro Mile: 64% savings and a bunch of tools that allow me to track my mileage for business deductions, etc.
2. More overreach and more backlash in Arizona: Arizona's governor signed a bill which repealed their earlier efforts to overhaul Arizona's voting laws which had made voting more restrictive.  That's twice in just a few months that Republicans have overreached in Arizona, only to be humbled back into the mainstream.  If they keep doing this, 2014 will end up surprising them.
3. Losing someone as beautiful as Paula Patton over a ridiculously over-the-top show simulating sex with Miley Cyrus at the VMA, is lame.  Continuing to act promiscuously in front of cameras with other women while you're married?  Face palm.
4. It has long become cliche to produce a laundry list of cliches.  Get over it, I say.  Instead, we should partake in the amusement of weeding out ironic or otherwise misunderstood cliches.
5. I had the odd experience of encountering someone suffering from the Dunning-Krueger Effect, online today. He asked me to point out facts that Libertarians enjoy ignoring; I responded succinctly that Bitcoins, contrary to the Libertarian belief, is in fact fiat.  He insisted that "fiat currency" required a state actor to produce the currency.  I was going to do an LOL, but then I realized this might be more of a WOW, WTF moment.  He kept going on, insisting that he knew what "fiat currency" meant, even as a half-dozen others pointed out that he was wrong.  I guess you could call it hilariously sad.
6. Petey talked at USC last night, and reiterated that the NCAA COI had spoken with a biased attitude when they sat down to talk to USC, back when USC was given an opportunity to defend itself.  That more or less reinforces what was written in Todd McNair's response to the NCAA's appeal to release its internal email documents that showed bias.  So where's the accountability going to come from, when all of this gets out?  I'm curious to know who watches the watchdog.
7. Lately, new Nexus 10 tablets have been showing up at discounted prices at clearance outlets online.  This is not refurbished units, but brand new ones.  Meanwhile the Google Play Store has zero inventory.  This must be a sign that a new tablet is coming, I think.
8. Here we are, complaining about the NSA storing metadata from phone calls, while across the Atlantic the Brits are storing images from online chats, of naked people.  Or as I call it: Brits' bits, stored by the gigabit.  The bad news is, that Yahoo won't have full encryption in place until the end of March; Google has had fully encrypted all traffic for some time now.  As I recall, Microsoft's Skype lost its encryption, at least for a while, after they had acquired Skype.
9. I cannot help but wonder, how much the IOC screwed up by letting Russia host the Olympics in Sochi.  It was the warmest Winter Olympics, ever, the most-expensive Olympics ever, the venues were not full, we got to see the police beat down on Pussy Riot members, and they didn't finish construction of everything.  Sure, they say they did, but as you could see, they cut corners and apparently some things started falling apart.  To top it off, US viewership was down overall; significantly down for the closing ceremonies, ranking as one of the lowest.
10. Speaking of Russia, what exactly is their end game for Ukraine?  As they cross the border, they're only going to push the western portion to run faster to the EU and NATO.  So what if they seize Crimea...by doing so, they lose the rest of Ukraine.  

10 best TV show tunes.

1. Hawa'i Five-O -- Let's face it, every marching band around the world has either wanted to or regularly plays this tune and is known the world over by everyone.  Book em, Danno.
2. Cheers -- The tune for a show that created a legacy (between Cheers and Frasier) nearly a quarter-century long.  Spawned one of my favorite characters of all time: Frasier Crane.
3. M.A.S.H. (Suicide is Painless)  -- You should read the lyrics.  So touching.
4. Star Trek (original) -- It only lasted 3 seasons, but it set off several decades of movies and spinoff shows.
5. The Muppets Show -- I like the Sesame Street theme song, but I much prefer the hilarious Muppets intro scene and the crazy characters.
6. The Simpsons -- Danny Elf, a master musician and composer dating back to Oingo Boingo.  He's done scores of...er...movie scores.
7. The Pink Panther -- Henry Mancini, the master of theme songs.
8. Mission Impossible -- Of course, no theme song compilation can exclude Lalo Schifrin.  And every high school band wanted to play this theme in the 70s and 80s.
9. Peter Gunn -- Another one, of many, of Henry Mancini's theme songs; I think every brass section and jazz orchestra knows this.
10. Gilligan's Island -- The longest 3-hour tour, ever.

Consider this an addendum: Kikaida opening theme song -- I owned this on a 45 rpm vinyl, if you can believe it. 

10 Thoughts for February 26, 2014

1. I wouldn't want my team(s) to draft Johnny Manziel.  He's everything opposite of what Russell Wilson stands for and does.  Whereas Manziel taunts other players, parties and throws tantrums, Wilson prepares, remains humble, and stays focused on getting better.  If you look at the league right now, Wilson is in the same camp as Tom Brady and Peyton Manning.
2. Having said that, I won't exclude the possibility that Manziel grows up and changes himself.  But that's really hard to do.  It's easier to flame out than to be humbled and realize that you need to radically change.  See: Todd Marinovich, Ryan Leaf, etc.  For these types of people, redemption comes much later in life, long after they flame out of their NFL careers.
3. About that Republican bill to remake the ACA: The CBO and JCT have concluded that, by getting rid of some of the mandates of the ACA, Republicans would end up adding $75B in federal debt over 10 years, while boosting the number of people forced to participate in Medicaid and SCHIP.  So I guess we're all wondering now, how will Republicans spin this message in the 2014 election cycle?  My guess is that they'll just ignore it.
4. Speaking of the ACA, a new poll from Kaiser Family Foundation shows the pulse of America over the ACA.  56% - 31% Americans are in favor of keeping or improving the ACA.
5. Here's your forewarning: Conservatives will take the growing negative opinion of uninsured Americans, to suggest that the ACA's mandate is increasingly unpopular.  However, this will have been taken out of its proper context.  Understand, that as we get closer to the March 31 deadline, the remaining uninsured folks are increasingly representative of those who are dogmatically opposed to the ACA, while those who support the ACA have already signed up or are planning to do so, before the deadline.
6. The funny thing about Bitcoin, is that contrary to its Libertarian appeal, the only means of building confidence behind the system is for it to be regulated, and half of its backers are pushing for such regulation.  The Foundation speaks of a second wave of investors getting into Bitcoins as pushing its legitimacy.  I don't see that to be the case; I see it as greedy people trying to make money by getting in on a purely speculative deal, with nothing to insure against losses.
7. Arizona's Governor Jan Brewer did the only thing she could do, and vetoed SB1062.  MLB, the NFL, Marriott, the recently merged US Airways - American Airlines company, the ready-to-move-in Apple and a whole host of other big names came out against the bill, implying all sorts of consequences were she to fail to do the right thing.  It was a reckoning moment for conservatives: Stick with your dogma, or be pragmatic.  But if you ask me, I think everyone should have remained quiet (no pressure on the governor) on the issue until after she signed it, then raised hell.  Why?  Because it would force Republicans to go back to the legislative process and undo what had been done or face the untenable position of losing a string of court battles which would have culminated in the clear establishment of limits to "religious freedoms", and nothing is more loathsome to Libertarians, than to be told that freedoms come with limits.
8. Russia's military forces are holding "drills" near its border with Ukraine.  I wonder what Putin would say, if NATO were to hold concurrent "drills" in fellow NATO countries of Estonia, Latvia and Romania? Therein lies the folly of Russia holding "drills" near Ukraine.
9. Target reported a 46% drop in profits, following its disclosure of a massive security breach.  A big chunk of that comes from the fact that they hadn't yet figured out how the breach occurred, and therefore there was a lack of confidence that Target's problems were resolved.
10. Aside from Target, we know there were many other retailers who were breached as well, but they haven't as of yet, come out.  One can understand why, but I would be willing to trust Target in the future going forward a lot more than these other companies who remain in the shadows.  Of course this just goes to show that when things aren't regulated, companies will quietly do whatever they want to do.

10 thoughts for February 24, 2014

1. Nokia showed off THREE Android-based phones at MWC.  Amusing, don't you think?  They don't have the exacting operation of Windows Phone, but they nonetheless use the theme of tiles and flat design and sans serif light text of WP.    In fact, they're actually going to hide -- by omission -- the fact that Android is at the center of the OS.
2. That Nokia would show off 3 phones based on Android makes almost no sense.  In scenario A, they're trying to slash dev costs and increase rev by using a free OS, but nonetheless must spend lots of time and money in its adaption of their heavily modified fork of Android Open Source Project (AOSP), while also forcing app devs to adapt their code to this fork -- a zero sum game.  In scenario B, they're trying to undermine Google by attracting low-end buyers to its forked Android which does not include any of Google's standard apps, but that marginalizes the appeal to their forked Android by limiting consumer choice -- a net negative result.  In scenario C, they're dipping their toes into the waters of a forked Android ecosystem to see if they can move the entire Windows Phone platform to it; all the benefits and negatives of the previous scenarios, plus one huge net negative when considering that Microsoft would be essentially trusting Google to maintain AOSP as opposed to closing it down at some point in the future -- a neg negative outcome.
3. I previously argued -- years ago -- that Nokia made an error by not adopting Android and heavily skinning it just as Amazon did.  Between then and now, Nokia hasn't regained its former market share (and in fact lost a substantial amount for years) and it has been bought out (the devices division) by Microsoft.  In other words, they missed their opportunity window.  They continue to think just one step ahead.  If they really wanted to get out of the Windows Phone ecosystem, they first need to go straight to an unskinned Android to gain the experience and expertise while building fans in the company's name (Nokia phones).  The second step -- to move to its own heavily skinned Android -- can then follow, once they have rebuilt the base of Nokia hardware fans.
4. I don't understand the smart watch / fitness tracker thing.  You mean to say, you can't tell if you haven't walked enough steps?  Are you telling me that you can't tell the time fast enough by pulling your smart phone or tablet out?  Is it really the case that you can't tell what your heart rate is?  Or maybe I should say that it is disconcerting if people can't generally guess how much exercise they've done in a week, discern the difference in their heart rates at resting and elevated rates, or that they're having to look at their arms every minute to find out what time it is.  So that's why I can't figure out what Samsung is trying to do with its three new smart watches and its new fitness tracker.
5. Speaking of Samsung...here comes the Galaxy S5.  It slices and dices, blends, crushes and even includes something called a smart phone.  I'm almost sure that it'll cost about as much as the most expensive phone on the market, aka the iPhone.
6. About that terribly written SB1062 from Arizona's Republican-controlled government: We now have some leading Republicans within Arizona calling for their Republican governor to veto, even though they voted for the bill.  According to them, the bill has built up false notoriety for the state.  Never mind that the bill was poorly written and is a lot worse than most of its opponents have described.  Weird.
7. Politically speaking, watch as the public discussion on the ACA turns from a net-negative to a net-positive.  Today, insurers surged with increased enrollment.  And, as we get closer to the March 31st deadline to meet the ACA's critical deadline for consumers to avoid paying a very modest penalty for 2014, the numbers are growing so fast that some have suggested that late March the exchanges will collapse from peak usage, at some point in late-March.
8. Today there was an X4.9 solar flare, which is quite large and bad news if it were directed towards Earth.  It was not directed towards Earth, so, good news, as the auroras should be decent in a couple of days.
9. Mt. Gox, the biggest Bitcoin market, has been shut down.  Apparently what really pushed them over the edge was a flaw in the system -- it's being debated if it was isolated or widespread -- with the acknowledgement that they had lost nearly 750K Bitcoins over the years.  Tally that up to the last traded value (before they were shut down) and you get over $100M lost.  If you go back a few weeks, it's closer to $0.5B lost.  The entire Bitcoin market, as a result, is dropping quickly.
10. I guess this means that I was wrong: Bitcoin is failing, not because pricing issues over a finite commodity, but because of a lack of confidence in the system itself.  The rush to pull out of the market, shows that Bitcoin is rather useless as a currency, yet again.  (Surprise?!?!)

10 thoughts for February 22, 2014

1. Mmm.  Beets.  I don't know why, but I seem to love all the foods that most people are iffy or downright hostile towards, including beets, brussels sprouts, radishes, eggplant, and liver.  OMG, brussels sprouts with liver!
2. Most of the time that I cook, I do simple prep.  I rarely season except for a dash of salt on meats and vegetables.  
3. The dog likes oats.  Toasted oats or oatmeal, it doesn't matter.  He also likes bread.  One thing he does not care for, is raw veggies.  Once cooked however, and it's all tasty to him.
4. Speaking of cooked veggies, generally, cooking vegetables breaks down the cellular structure of the plant material, thus unlocking a number of benefits of said vegetables.  So, I don't see why people are all crazy over raw diets.
5. Corn doesn't seem to have much of a dietary benefit.  It's difficult to digest and more or less comes out looking as it went in.  Having said that, I love me cornbread, tortilla chips, and corn on the cob with butter, cream of corn, etc.
6. It seems that my choice of not investing time into watching the Winter Olympics has paid off.  The US team seems to have left its competitiveness at home this year.  Therefore, I had zero letdown.
7. I do pay attention to the medal count, however, and it appears that Russia is on its way towards spending $1.7B per medal which its athletes have earned.  Never before has a semi-precious metal let alone medal cost so much to earn.
8. It's still warmer in Sochi than it is in Portland Oregon, by the way.  It begs the question: Should I have gone to the Winter Olympics to get away from the rains, ice, snow and winds from Winter in Portland?
9. It's not yet here, but the Samsung Galaxy Tab Pro 12.2 (the cheaper cousin to the Note Pro 12.2), is listed at Best Buy's website, priced at $649.99.  It looks really nice, and I'm very tempted to get it, because I've been wanting a larger tablet to use for presentations and easier digital magazine reading.  But gosh, I just feel as though Google will surprise us with a 12.2" Nexus tablet of their own, soon, and I much prefer having a pure Android experience with immediate updates.
10. Speaking of Androids, Mobile World Congress has arrived (Barcelona, Spain), and so there will be a slew of new devices (from a variety of platforms) introduced over the next few days.  Meanwhile Google I|O 2014 was recently announced, and unlike its usual May appearance, it will be in late June this year, and you pretty much have to be a developer to get in, aside from all the journalists, that is.

WHY Arizona's SB1062 is bad policy.

I thought it worthy of poring over and explaining just how bad SB1062 was, but frankly, almost all of ARS Article 9 (41-1493) had already partially codified bigotry.  So of course, Republicans had to make it worse.   I won't cover the additionally vague language that was inserted; just the crap.

The bill does four things:

Expansion of "exercise of religion"
Firstly, it expands what the "exercise of religion" means, from having the freedom to act in a manner that is "substantially motivated by a religious belief", to a broadly defined "practice or observance of religion".

So, let's say that I'm not even Christian, but I nonetheless like Christmas.  I can now kick you out of my establishment because you're a Jew.  They didn't just lower the bar; they dropped it on the ground.

Expansion of personhood to allow everyone to discriminate
Secondly, it expands the definition of what a "person" is, from a, "religious assembly or institution" to, "any individual, association, partnership, corporation, church, religious assembly or institution, estate, trust, foundation or other legal entity."

Aside from the obvious original mismatch of what a "person" is, now, anyone and anything can be called a person.  The point of this expansion being, that religious groups are not the only entities allowed to "exercise" their religion.  And that should scare the hell out of you, because it means that companies can now freely ban Muslims, Jews, Buddhists or anyone else they find offensive to their religion, from their business establishment, meetings, concerts, etc.  They can conceivably kick out atheists and agnostics, too.

The burden of proof is now on the discriminated

Thirdly, whereas the current law allows the government to step in, if it feels compelled by a self interest, and block discrimination stemming from the "exercise of religion", this bill now places the onus on the discriminated party to prove that it's in the government's best interest to do so.

I don't even know how any individual would go about gathering information to prove to a disinterested government that it should step in, let alone have the money to do so.  So let's take a parallel here:  What would you say, if the government told you that it was now your onus to prove that you were raped before it did anything.  What would you do?  What would you think?

The expansion of civil lawsuits

Fourthly, the law previously encouraged people who felt that their "exercise of religion" was being burdened by state and local government, to sue or defend itself against government.  This bill gives these folks the right to sue or use "exercise of religion" as a defense against anyone.  In other words, an expansion of tort and civil lawsuits.

You read that right: People who discriminate based on loosely religious beliefs, can now sue the very people they're discriminating against, or defend themselves against charges of discrimination, by proclaiming that they're simply observing the sort of discrimination that was described in the Bible, some 2000+ years ago.  Slavery is coming back into fashion, it seems, in the South.

So there you have it.  A relatively quick read on the state of affairs in Arizona, or as I like to call it: Dumb and Dumber.  But hey, as I wrote in my 10 thoughts post, this is all entertainment from my standpoint.  Republicans, it seems, cannot help but step on their own toes.

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Oh, and a postscript note: Eventually, I do expect some journalists to catch up, but really, woe is the media and the news once again, for dropping the ball on explaining what's actually going on, here.

10 thoughts for February 21, 2014

1. I discovered a gem at the library the other day: The Verve / Philips Dizzy Gillespie Small Group Sessions CD Limited Edition Collection (only 10,000 copies).  The Multnomah County has 3 of the 10,000 limited edition copies.  Wow.  The collection comprises of 7 CDs of recordings from 1954 - 1964.  Jazz music so good, you need to use some decent headphones or speakers to listen to.
2. Did you miss it?  On Valentine's Day, De La Soul made their entire recording collection available for download for a day.  The catch: You had to sign up to receive their newsletter and they would send links to the music to download.  The second catch: You had to wait for forever to get those links; in my case, it was two days later that I received a follow-up email giving me the links to download.  I'd include those links here, but I'm quite sure that they're custom tracking links, so one link / one user.
3. Staying on music.  I've just completed uploading a bunch of my opera CDs, and now I can stream these operas: Cosi Fan Tutte, Die Zauberflote, La Clemenza Di Tito, La Traviata, Otello, La Force Du Destin, Carmen, Tosca, Madama Butterfly, La Boheme,  Pelléas et Mélisande, Turandot.  I have a few more opera CDs to scan.
4. And then there's the Mahler symphonies.  I've got most of them, but the ones that matter most are the odd-numbered symphonies, especially #1 and #9.  Boy, I hope I'm not turning into Frasier Crane.
5. Fukushima...the nuclear mess that will be with us for centuries.  Why?  Because they continue to have issues with leakage.  With leakage comes contamination.  With contamination comes extra cleanup.  With extra cleanup material comes the need for adequate storage of contaminated waste.  Ask the folks in Hanford Washington how the cleanup and storage is going.  
6. Speaking of nuclear waste, you might have already heard that the DOE approved a loan for a new nuclear power plant in Georgia.  Hot diggity.  Literally.
7. Staying on the topic of nuclear power, I actually visited the Trojan Nuclear Power Plant up in Ranier Oregon.  Even took some photos.  Of course, this was years after they had shut the plant operations down, following a leak of radioactive water, so the place was safe.
8. I actually kind of enjoy, in a masochistic way, watching people trip themselves up.  For instance, when Republicans and Republican states push bills to codify their bigotry into law, then, to their surprise, a big backlash follows and quashes them.  See Arizona SB 1062.  The outcome is so obvious, there's no point to offering a prediction as to the fate of these bills.
9. How do you know that Microsoft's ads attacking Chromebook are failing?  Microsoft has slashed its OEM license fee for Windows 8.1 on low-end devices.  But it's going to fail, because the appeal of Chromebooks is twofold: Price and simplicity.  Windows is the opposite of simplicity; it is the confounded !%*&!?! is the Start Menu and how the #$?!#*??! do I get back to that last thing I was doing?
10. Well I can understand this one: Cat bites and depression go hand in hand.  The solution? Get a dog.  Every time you come home your dog thinks you're the best dang thing ever.  Be sure to click through on that last bit about serious cat bites.  Knowing all this, there's no good reason to own a cat.

A thought about Todd McNair's lawsuit.

The other day, USCfootball.com revealed Todd McNair's response to the NCAA's motions.  There's really just one section that everyone should pay attention to, because it gives us an idea of what may be coming, later this year.

The NCAA had argued that, (among a half dozen other half-baked reasons) because they do not have the power to compel witnesses to come forward and testify, unsealing the documents would discourage future witnesses from coming forward to spill the beans.  McNair's lawyers countered:

"In fact many of the documents which the NCAA seeks to shield from public view consist of emails and other communications between committee member and others that do not even involve fact witnesses whom the NCAA claims it does not want to deter from future cooperation. Rather, as recognized by the trial court, the most damaging and embarrassing documents are internal NCAA communications establishing that the NCAA maliciously found McNair committed unethical conduct so that it would have a basis to severely punish the USC football program."

Now, realize that the Court allowed NCAA agents' characterization of McNair to be published:

"Individuals like McNair shouldn't be coaching at ANY level."
"Lying morally bankrupt criminal."
"Hypocrite of the highest order."

So you know what this means?  There are worse things written in those emails being held back from the public's view.  Wow, right?!?!

We read hints about this previously, but this is confirmation that things are really bad for the NCAA.  Folks, upon losing their appeal I fear that the NCAA will immediately offer a huge settlement to try to keep these documents hidden.  If they don't stop these documents from coming out, a lot of heads will roll.

10 thoughts for February 20, 2014

1. IKEA is calling it quits on the Expedit line.  Never to worry, a replacement line has been spotted: Kallax.  The outside dimensions have shrunk but the compartment sizes remain the same, so all is good...well sort of.
2. Google Fiber is in talks with 9 metro areas to expand to 34 cities.  Portland Metro is one of the areas under consideration, which includes Portland, Beaverton, Hillsboro, Gresham, Lake Oswego and Tigard.  The CoP already meets Google's required checklist, which is to say that the BDS already has a facilities management program that eases the permitting process (it just needs to be altered or replicated in other bureaus to accommodate utility permits), has digitized mapped lines of utilities, and they wouldn't be the first company to go through and lay down fiber.
3. Google has just served notice to the nation's cable carriers (and other ISPs) that competition's coming to towns across America and they're going to have to slash their prices or else face extinction.
4. Add up the current Winter Olympic medals from former USSR members and they would blow all others away.  But of course, USSR was never going to be able to hold itself together -- just look at how many former republics are pushing to align themselves to Western Europe -- so that's somewhat of a moot point.
5. If you are an Apple fanboy, you don't want to watch this video...you'll just end up foaming-at-the-mouth angry.  If you're anything but an Apple fanboy, the sarcasm dripping from the narrator's words is hilarious.
6. You should see the spread on Bitcoin valuations, just on the USD market.  Between the top four -- by volume -- markets, the spread is over 500 Bitcoins.  On the top market, the 24 hour window of transactions list a 800 Bitcoin spread between the lowest and highest transactions.  It seems that as a currency, it fails badly as it gains popularity.
7. By the way, in one day the current Bitcoin rate on Mt. Gox has been halved.  Yeah...currency it ain't.
8. The Roosevelt Institute points out that the CBO minimum wage study was far more nuanced than the headline number broadcast.  I might have written something about that the other day.
9. I swear, these people from North and South Dakota who are the "happiest" residents, have never visited Hawai'i.  No one stuck in 5' high snow drifts for the last month could possibly think that life is great.
10. Google's Project Tango will result in some really huge benefits for all of us.  Allow me to give you an example: I'll be able to scan in-process construction sites, and you'll be able to not just view it, but also interact with it -- how cool would that be?

The CBO's minimum wage paradox. (well, not quite)

The news is presenting the CBO's report incorrectly.

The range of job loss / gain from a $10.10 minimum wage, under one standard deviation, is ~1M, while that one standard deviation range for a $9.00 minimum wage is ~200,000.

So allow me to point to what I'm referring, for the moment in this post, as the Minimum Wage Paradox:

Zero changes to the federal minimum wage is the baseline.  But under a smaller increase ( from $7.25 to $9.00) in the minimum wage, there is a good (relatively speaking) statistical probability of an increase in jobs, but under a higher increase (from $7.25 to $10.10) in the minimum wage, there is very little probability of an increase of jobs.  If you increase the minimum wage just a little, it could increase employment, but if you increase it too much, you will likely lose jobs.

Of course, that's not really what the CBO report is demonstrating.  What appears to be a Minimum Wage Paradox, is a way of showing that the bigger the increase in the minimum wage, the less certain the CBO is on what the effects on employment will be.

The point here is that the news has grabbed onto this story, reported it incorrectly, then assigned it a very high value of certainty that it did not deserve.

I personally do not believe that the CBO report is exactly right, and here's why.

If you've paid attention to my prior posts about my belief of normative trends, doesn't an increase in the nominal + real (inflation adjusted, under the $10.10 option) wages actually just reflect an adjustment in non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment?

Now, let's look at 2016 in a microeconomic view.

Let's say it's 2016 and the economy continues to grow with the unemployment rate dropping and the labor participation rate increasing.  Are you still paying $7.25 -- the minimum wage set back in 2009 -- even as we're reaching full employment and it's getting near impossible to find good employees?  Or are you increasing your wages to attract better talent?  So, in reality minimum wages will increase anyway, in 2016, it's just a question of whether or not you're increasing prices.

Furthermore, the more people moved out of poverty means less upward pressure on taxes (or conversely, greater pressure to make cuts on social safety net programs, as the needs decrease).  Aren't those two everlasting hallmarks of conservative dogma?

I call it a win-win.

10 questions for February 18, 2014.

A variant of my 10 thoughts.  Some Most are rhetorical questions.

1. Does it make sense for Nokia to spend labor capital to heavily skin the Android OS so that it looks like Windows Phone?
2. Follow-up question: If heavily skinning Android to look like Windows Phone means that you'll have to induce developers to adapt their Android apps to your forked Android, why wouldn't you just pay devs to build apps for Windows Phone and use Windows Phone OS?
3. Why are people against gentrification, when they're for cleaning up and improving their dilapidated neighborhoods?
4. If people doubt global warming, why do they selectively ignore parts of information that are contrary to their message, rather than try to explain why these contradictions exist?
5. Slightly related question: Marsha Blackburn said on The Newshour that the amount of atmospheric carbon (400+ ppb) was extremely small, so do you think she'd be fine with drinking water containing 400 ppb of lead?
6. Why do Republicans believe that the national debt is too big, even though the interest rate on it remains at historically low levels, while conversely think that atmospheric carbon is infinitesimally small (and therefore inconsequential), despite being at historically (as in 500,000 years) high levels?
7. Some might not quite get that last one, so allow me to rephrase the question: If someone told you that you could borrow money at historically low rates, would you bite, or would you wait for the rates to shoot up; conversely, if someone told you that we've never seen this much pollution in the air in the last 500,000 years, would you think it's okay to add more pollution, or would you maybe pause for a moment?
8. What's the first thing that comes to mind, when someone in an advertisement starts off a sentence with, "Honestly"?
9. Follow-up question: What's the first thing that comes to mind, when a politician starts off a sentence with, "I think we can all agree"?
10. If you read my last 10 thoughts post, then this is a follow-up: If Christian historical films include actors using a modern British accent, wouldn't it present an ironic paradox if these films were exported to the Middle East, dubbed in local, Neo-Aramaic?

10 thoughts for February 17, 2014

These are a bit more sporadic, depending upon work and what I'm doing at the moment. :D

1. LIVE! Watch an asteroid -- 2000 EM26 -- the width of 3 football fields pass the planet!  Or not.  I watched the live YouTube streaming channel from the Slooh.  Nothing.  Listening to the speakers, it was made clear that the asteroid might not be where they've pointed the cameras at, because the last time it passed us it went missing, too.  Nothing worse than a lost asteroid flying along a path that crosses the Earth.  What cracks me up is that some news outlets are reporting this as future-tense (a fly-by), after the fact that the asteroid was supposed to have reached its closest approach to Earth.
2. Well, I've been ripping more of my CDs of late, but they're such a pain when it comes to improper automated tagging, as far as classical music goes.  Still, I've had a bunch of treasured CDs missing from my digital music lifestyle.  And, because my Audio-Visual system integrates a receiver, a pair of 3-way bookshelf speakers from Polk Audio, my TV with Chromecast attached and WiFi network, I can stream my uploaded music from Google Play Music and adjust the volume from my devices remotely.  Right now I'm listening to Gustav Holst's The Planets, one of the CDs I ripped last night.
3. I mentioned the other day about having six variations of Carmina Burana's O Fortuna (four CDs and two digital downloads from eMusic).  There are other titles that I have multiple recordings of, too.  Several different Mahler symphonies and Mozart horn concertos come to mind.  The horn concertos, if you didn't know, have various sections where the individual horn player has leeway to improvise, so no two instrumentalists will sound the same.
4. Teriyaki Spam.  Haven't tried it yet, but my parents mailed me a box of goodies and in it was a can of Teriyaki Spam.  Interestingly, the ingredients list sugar, not corn syrup.  Apparently Teriyaki Spam Musubi must be a really big thing in Hawai'i, or else Hormel wouldn't have bothered.  And yes, I do have the acrylic Spam Musubi maker.
5. You ever notice how many clocks are in your home?  They're on your phone, your tablet, your computer screen, your TV, practically all of your electronic kitchen appliances including your coffee maker.  This is why I consider watches an anachronism.  
6. "Medal count" search on Google.  That's about all the viewing I've done on the Winter Olympics.  For instance, I knew Bob Costas had a red eye, but I didn't know that he had taken time off for an eye infection.  
7. In some countries, the only Olympic medal that counts are the gold ones; I apply a points system where a gold medal = 3 points; silver = 2; bronze = 1.  If the other medals don't count, then don't award them; if they do count, then devise a system to properly count them, I say.
8. Why do movies about God and Christ, centered in the heart of the Middle East, have actors speaking with a British accent?  If you're so devoted to bringing Christ and God to the screen, as an actor, producer and writer, shouldn't you be using Aramaic, or at least the modern day equivalent dialect?  It's a bit ridiculous that such religious movies utilize modern British-English; why not Old English, thusly?
9. I've read that Republicans continue to insist that the stimulus was a waste of money.  That should strike the average person as amusing and insulting, because Republicans gave their own rebate checks directly to Americans, twice during the Bush years.  Also, a chunk of the stimulus bill included lowered taxes by way of short-term rules allowing for accelerated depreciation, as well as extending the Bush tax cuts.
10. All things get normalized.  Some methods of normalization are abrupt while others are slow and subtle.  QE over the short haul was abruptly effective (even if generally modest in total effect), but over time became normalized.  Had it not become normalized over a period of time, then the Feds could have abruptly ended QE without consequences.  QE tapering, therefore, is an attempt to normalize backwards to pre-QE times, without any immediate disruption.

Geeking out on Carmina Burana and classical music.

I'm back in the process of ripping the rest of my CD collection to FLAC format, and I just finished ripping my handful of Carl Orff's Carmina Burana recordings.  Combined with the digital MP3 recordings that I had bought when I was a member of eMusic, I've got 6 variations of O Fortuna:

• Andre Previn / London Symphony Orchestra
• Herbert Blomstedt / San Francisco Symphony Orchestra
• Leonard Slatkin / St. Louis Symphony Orchestra
• Johannes Davis / Lubeck Festival Choir and Orchestra (digital download)
• Rafael Fruhbeck De Burgos / New Philharmonia Orchestra
• Peabody Conservatory Wind Ensemble (digital download)

Why all the variations?  Because for a time (well over a decade ago), I had been searching for a recording that captured the concert bass drum correctly in the last 5 lines of chorus of O Fortuna:

"sine mora
corde pulsum tangite;
quod per sortem
sternit fortem,
mecum omnes plangite!"

 Most of the recordings out there either place too much influence on the timpani's sound, therefore drowning out the concert bass drum, or perhaps the conductor chose to minimize or eliminate the concert bass drum's roll.  When you hear it in a performance, it stands out because it feels like an explosion that shocks you.

The one recording I have that clearly articulates the concert bass drum, is the New Philharmonia Orchestra under Rafael Fruhbeck De Burgos.  It's not perfect, but it's probably my favorite of all the recordings I have.

And while I'm on the topic of O Fortuna, no, it is not a spooky song, though it has been popularized by Hollywood as such.  If you read the lyrics (translated), it is an enormous lamentation that, despite what one does, Fate intervenes and controls.    If you want spooky -- I mean really freaky -- music, listen to Kronos Quartet's Black Angels album, with emphasis on George Crumb's Black Angels.  No surprise, but some of the most disturbing music is either atonal or polytonal.  On the other hand, Lincolnshire Posy weaves through a lot of polytonal sections, and yet is quite spectacular in imagery.

So yeah..geeked out.

Poko Pang Animal distribution chart.

I thought, now that I've maxed out on both levels (100) and attack power (90), eventually I'd just keep grabbing tons of cherries and push my animal power up.  Turns out Line's got other plans...to stop me from reaching the end of the game and defeating all the monsters.

I have just two monsters left to beat, but the Poko Pang game just won't let me power up my best animals.  Some 30+ animal call ups after maxing out on my attack power and levels, and I've only grabbed one gold-level animal.  So, to show how skewed the distribution chart is, and to prove that they're lying when they say that the process is random, I give you all 245 call ups in this chart below.

Obviously it is extremely skewed to the bottom tier of animals.  I'm giving it another month before I call it quits.  I should also explain that many of the other Line games have issues, too.  I don't know if they do this on purpose, but I suspect that they give preference to Asian players.

Oh, and if you're wondering, my top score is below.

The National Republican Congressional Committee may be violating federal law.

The NRCC has bought up hundreds of website names that are the same as Democratic congressional members' names, and built sites that deceptively look like official reelection websites for these members, only to redirect donations to the NRCC.

Cute, but it my violate federal anticybersquatting laws that disallow people from trying to use website names that are copyright-protected because it is someone else's name, that person is still alive, while the NRCC ostensibly profits from people who may have intended to donate to a Democratic member and not the NRCC.

Yes, there is an exclusion for parodies and fair use, but you cannot use johnboehner.com, whereas you can use johnboehnerfail.com.  Don't believe me?  Read this:

"In 2000, Madonna won a lawsuit against a cybersquatter who had bought Madonna.com and set up a porn site. (The same guy registered, among other names, wallstreetjournal.com.) Likewise, Hillary Clinton won a case in 2005 against an Italian woman who had bought the domain name Hillaryclinton.com."

Further, it just smells of cheap, college-level pranks.  This only earns Republicans enmity, especially as these cases get filed in federal court and the spotlight is focused directly on the NRCC.  But worst of all for Republicans, they may be liable for statutory damages of $1,000 to $100,000 and treble punitive award.

Dumb.

10 thoughts for February 12, 2014

The list is back!

1. While they're dealing with snow and ice in the East, today it was a balmy 55° F / 12.8°C.  Also, despite the current rains, there's almost zero chance that California gets rescued out of its severe drought.
2. This past snow event was quite amazing.  It was the first time since I moved here, that we got 3 days of snow in a row.  Checking the NOAA records, the last time there were consecutive days of snow was back in 1980.
3. While I'm on the subject of weather, it's actually been much warmer in Sochi than in Portland, even with this little warm up, here.  Thursday (2/13) in Sochi shows a high of 64°F / 17.8°C and a low of 50°F / 10°C, while Portland shows a high of 52°F / 11.1°C and a low of 41°F / 5°C.
4. Speaking of Winter Olympics, why can't Seattle-Portland host its own?  All they need to do is create a high-speed rail.
5. Check this out: An app that was created to allow people to virtually tour a future symphonic concert hall in Hamburg, by Herzog et de Meuron.  Well, only if you have an Android or iOS device, that is.  It is a one-trick pony, but worth checking out nonetheless.
6. I'm having trouble with the way Senate Republicans acted on the series of votes to raise the debt ceiling.  In the procedural vote to get past a filibuster, several Republicans switched their vote from a 'no' to a 'yes', to allow for a vote on passage of the debt ceiling increase.  Then they all promptly voted against the debt ceiling increase, knowing full well that Democrats had the votes to pass the bill, once past the threat of a filibuster.  You see, I think Democrats should direct a bunch of their members to stay out of town during a vote, and force Republicans to own up to the responsibility of increasing the debt ceiling.
7. I'm also having trouble with House Republicans.  Some of them wanted to attach to the bill to increase the debt ceiling, an end to the sequester cuts to veterans' benefits.  In other words, they were going to increase the debt ceiling and add more spending.  That's weird, no?  I have nothing against veterans getting their full promised benefits, but I just think it's just common sense that if you were going to restore veterans' benefits, you'd also restore emergency unemployment compensation and food stamps on an equal basis -- that, after all, is what true compromise is all about.
8. I hate headaches -- who doesn't? -- but I've had this low-grade one for four days now, and it's all from neck and shoulder strain.  I think it's stress-related.  :P  Being the mother's son that I am, I think I could be a hypochondriac.  For the last three decades she's been telling us that she's going to die soon.  Meanwhile, I've been under the fear that my headaches are either signs of an ischemic stroke, a growing aneurysm, or a tumor in my head.  Of course if you take aspirin to prevent strokes, you could induce an aneurysm, while a tumor will result in exceedingly worse headaches, and in the case of a tumor I'm probably already too late!  But because my shoulder and neck hurt, I'm quite assured that this is all stress.  (I know, I have dark humor.)  But then again, maybe Death will have the last laugh?
9. I rediscovered orange marmalade this week.  I was at Safeway (the shelves were partially empty, as a result of the snow-ice event), and having been on a PBJ obsession, I thought I should check out some of the jams and jellies.  When I saw the Smuckers marmalade on sale, all I could think of was the sweet and tangy flavor of orange rind in my mouth.  Mmm.  Tastes great when used on crepes, by the way.
10. This will sound crazy, but tonight I was munching down some vanilla-flavored Open Nature (Safeway) Greek yogurt, and it dawned upon me that with closed nose, the vanilla went away but the tartness remained, and the flavor reminded me of 4-day old poi.  Some people love their poi freshly pounded from taro; I love mine several days old.  No wonder I love Greek yogurt.

Nielsen numbers for Winter Olympics opening ceremonies.

Last week's Nielsen ratings came out.  Based on that, I thought I'd throw this little chart together to see how many Americans watched the Sochi Olympics opening ceremonies, relative to the past several Winter Olympics.  Turns out, Sochi is smack dab in the middle...not as disinterested as Turin, but nowhere as popular as SLC, for obvious reasons.  I would have thought that Vancouver would be higher, given its proximity and popularity with Americans, but it wasn't.

Site	Viewers	US pop	% view/pop
2006 Turin	22,200,000	297,220,000	7.47%
1992 Albertville	23,999,000	255,030,000	9.41%
1998 Nagano	27,185,250	274,580,000	9.90%
2014 Sochi	31,690,000	317,520,000	9.98%
2010 Vancouver	32,600,000	308,380,000	10.57%
1994 Lillehammer	33,835,000	261,810,000	12.92%
2002 Salt Lake	45,604,000	286,540,000	15.92%

Grimm Filming in the Pearl...in the snow? (updated)

It's probably a good thing most of the Grimm actors live in the Pearl, given the amount of snow today, and through Saturday -- we're supposed to get a cumulative foot of snow.  I feel bad for those people standing outside in the cold, as it was 19°F / -7.2°C this afternoon with a wind chill down to 10°F / -12.2°C.

If you know where Captain Renard's place is, and where Metrovino used to be, then you'll have a hoot with all the blocked street traffic tomorrow, not that there'll be any traffic with most places closed down from all the snow.  Still, they converted the closed down Metrovino space to a wedding dress shop and I can't wait to see if they take advantage of the snow and use it in the filming.

Brrr!

---

Update:

Well, no, they didn't film during our snow event last week, and tonight I could see why: they were filming while driving. Which of course points to the fact that I happened to walk past the different places they were filming...hard not to, considering they were spread about in different directions for blocks in the Pearl.

You can't see him, but trust me, David Giuntoli's in the Jeep behind the van.

Thoughts about USC preferred walk-on Larry Tuileta.

I saw this explode in Hawai'i news, that Punahou quarterback Larry Tuileta had turned down a scholarship from UH to go to USC without an athletic scholarship.  (I can fully relate, because I turned down a full academic ride -- for my brains -- to UH and instead opted for USC.)  A two-sport athlete who also plays volleyball, he decided to take the offer of being a preferred walk-on the Trojans football program.

No big deal, right?  Here's where it gets interesting.  Tuileta is a two-time Hawai'i State Gatorade Player of the Year in football.  He's not ranked highly by anyone (Rivals 2-star; ESPN 3-star; 247 Sports 2-star).  (It seems odd that a guy who's not even the highest rated player in Hawai'i wins the award two years in a row; was it simply because Punahou won the state championship last year, and was runner-up the year before?)  Here's two previous players who won the Hawai'i State Gatorade POTY twice (and were ranked highly nationally): Marcus Mariota and Manti Te'o.

Watch his junior highlights.  He appears to have the ability to look players off, follow his progressions and deliver the ball where it needs to be, even if it kind of looks like a duck.



He doesn't look to have the throwing ease and spirals of Jalen Greene, but the kid probably just needs to grow into his body and build his strength up.  At UH he'd probably become the starter after a season (or sooner), given their quarterback woes.  Probably a small gain for USC, but a big loss for UH.  USC finished with the 10th-ranked recruiting class with 19 players while UH signed 25 players, good for just 113th in the nation.

But you know, when you're on the USC campus and in Los Angeles, it's really exciting and hard to resist.  When you walk past the practice field and hear the TMB practicing, it gets you pumped up for football.  UH is...well...a public university with okay facilities.  Love UH, but the campus is not in the same class as USC; after all, USC pours tens of millions of dollars into construction all across and off campus, while UH struggles to build dorms on time and is always under the glaring budget eye of the state.

In other news, Max Wittek could always transfer to UH and instantly start.  Norm Chow should be rolling out the red carpet for Max.

No, 2.5M jobs aren't going away because of the ACA. (updated)

Wow, I am disappointed yet again, that the news media and frankly too many journalists on the internet can't wrap their minds around what the CBO report actually said.  Here's an excerpt explaining what they're actually projecting:

CBO estimates that the ACA will reduce the total number of hours worked, on net, by about 1.5 percent to 2.0 percent during the period from 2017 to 2024, almost entirely because workers will choose to supply less labor—given the new taxes and other incentives they will face and the financial benefits some will receive." 

"The reduction in CBO’s projections of hours worked represents a decline in the number of full-time-equivalent workers of about 2.0 million in 2017, rising to about 2.5 million in 2024."

So, the CBO is not saying that 2.5M workers will be displaced; they are saying that the equivalent hours of 2.5M full-time workers -- or 100M hours a week -- will be collectively reduced, voluntarily, by Americans who understand that working less hours gives them a better return on their labor.

So, if you know that working 30 hours a week rather than 35 hours a week will reduce your federal subsidies, you will presumably figure it out and request to work just the 30 hours a week.  If you have 8 people choosing to work 30 hours instead of 35, then you have one full-time-equivalent worker's hours reduced.  That does result in one less worker, now does it?  Of course not!

These sorts of distortions happen all the time.  Are you really going to complain about Social Security because it encourages people to stop supplying labor once they reach retirement age?  Are you really going to complain about pension rules that encourage people to quit once they've become fully vested?

It is unbelievable how pathetic the news media is.

---

Update: The news media finally caught up.  From the LA Times:

Even House Budget Committee Chairman Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) felt the need to get things straight at his hearing Wednesday on the CBO report. "Just to understand," he queried CBO Director Doug Elmendorf, "it's not that employers are laying people off?"

"That's right," Elmendorf replied.

So there you go, even Paul Ryan is trying to make clear that the CBO's report did not tacitly or otherwise imply that the ACA would lead to job losses.  Why the sudden rush to clarity for some Republicans?  Because they are trying to push their own plan, which, when implemented would result in similar economic distortions.  What's the public to think of Republicans, when presenting their own plan, are confronted with the truth that their bill will contribute to a reduction in FTE loss in hours?  Well, if you haven't figure out the GOP deal, you might never find the real truth.

Psst...official Seattle SB Champions gear, discounted.

There are probably a few more than I know about, but these two are sites that are on my regular radar screen.  They both have limited inventory so as soon as they sell out, that's it.

• Woot has had a Seahawks section up since earlier today. As of this writing, they still have signed Marshawn Lynch jerseys available, albeit at $550.  No wearables here, but they do have a very nice 3' x 5' flag. You pay $5 for shipping, for as much stuff you buy within a 24-hour period.
• Dailysteals has put up a Seahawks "heist" section tonight.  This one has affordable wearables and some plaques commemorating the SB win.  It's 100% free shipping.

I grabbed myself a couple of long-sleeve shirts from Dailysteals.  My experience is, hot stuff -- especially the less-expensive stuff -- disappears fast, so hurry if you want some official stuff.

Free agency doesn't hurt Seattle. (updated)

I've been reading a lot about the belief that Seattle will have difficulty holding onto players as they begin to come up as free agents.  They're missing the point.

Seattle built the program with free agents willing to take a pay cut to join an up and coming program, and 21 of the 53 players on the roster were undrafted.  This isn't a program that fears free agency; this is a team that embraces free agency and looks for a certain competitive character.  If a player wants to take the money and leave, that's their prerogative; Seattle will just find some other free agent out there who wants a SB ring badly enough to take a pay cut, and meets the qualifications of being a Seahawk under Carroll.

DE Michael Bennett is a free agent.  You know who else is a free agent?  Jared Allen.  DTs Clinton McDonald and Tony McDaniel are free agents.  You know who else is a free agent?  Jason Hatcher.  There's plenty of top talent around who've never gotten to the Super Bowl, and they know full well that Seattle is their best bet.  But I'll venture to guess that most of the current players don't mind taking a pay cut, to establish themselves as members of a dynasty.

But let's say these guys leave for the money.  Go back to Carroll's days at USC and you'll find a bunch of #1 recruiting classes and a string of big victories in bowl games. Pete's got his system tuned to find the kind of talent he wants: Guys who compete every day on every play, even in practice.  Those undrafted players are the diamond in the rough that no one else found -- that's a testament to the work Carroll and his coaches put in into evaluation and tracking of players in college.

No, I'm not worried about the future of Seattle.  And now that all the vacant head coaching positions have been filled, you know that Pete's OC and DC will be around for at least one more year.

Two-Pete in 2015.

---

Update: I thought maybe I should show just how good Pete Carroll's recruiting and coaching was, back at USC.  Here's some of the big names from the 2008 roster, just on defense:

• Clay Matthews; 
• Rey Maualuga;
• Kaluka Maiava; 
• Brian Cushing;
• Malik Jackson;
• Michael Morgan;
• Taylor Mays;
• Nick Perry;
• Shareece Wright;
• Fili Moala;
• Jurrell Casey.

Now that is WOW.  So talented, this defense would have put a lot of pro teams to shame.  And as they say, USC is an NFL factory.

Seattle 43 - Denver 8

Who knew that the preseason game between Seattle and Denver (40 - 10) would be this prophetic?

Seattle's defense was so good, Denver's Peyton Manning was left to throwing mostly under the secondary, rather than test the corners with man coverage.  Oh, he tried a couple of times to throw it towards Richard Sherman, but he never got a completion against Sherman.  You know what they say about immovable objects?  Seattle's secondary was that immovable object and Manning's only recourse was to adapt to the short throw game.  He ended with a Super Bowl record on completions, but that resulted in just 5.7 yards per attempt, and his QBR and rating was just 24.4 and 73.5 respectively.

But what good is a solid defense without a good offense?  The question posed often in the media was whether Seattle move the ball against a surging Denver defense.  During the regular season, Denver's defense was just 22nd.  Russell Wilson, just in his second year in the NFL, ended the game with a QBR of 88.1 / rating of 123.1.  And while everyone thought that Beast would have to end up with 100+ yards for the Seahawks to win, it turns out having Percy Harvin in the game was worth a lot more, as Denver was caught focused too much on Marshawn Lynch, allowing Harvin to run a couple of reverses for 45 yards.

And hey, the 12th Man must have traveled with the team.  How else do you explain that safety to start the game?  I'm sure Manning called out, "Omaha!" more than a few times throughout the game, but I didn't hear it as the crowd was drowning out Denver's offense.

So how about all the ties back to USC?  Marcus Allen, MVP of Super Bowl 18, carried the Lomardi Trophy to the presentation stand.  Pete Carroll, possibly USC's best coach in history with what can only be described as a smothering dynasty, just completed a feat that few others have done (Jimmy Johnson and Barry Switzer), having won a championship at the NCAA and NFL levels.  (Hey, can we have Pete back in a couple of years after 3 Lombardi Trophies?)  And to complete the ties, the Super Bowl MVP was Malcolm Smith, former USC Trojan linebacker.

Finally, an admission.  When writing up my prediction, I actually wrote suggesting that you shouldn't be surprised if Seattle won in a blowout, and before that, I had initially written down that Seattle would win 31 - 17.  But then I rewrote it all, thinking it better to go with the conservative expectation.  My bad.

Blogging quarterly through the Super Bowl

I wasn't going to do this, but wow...the entire first quarter was ALL ABOUT SEATTLE!

• Starting from the first play where Denver's center hiked the ball over Peyton Manning's head resulting in a 14 yard loss and a safety.
• Followed up by a long 9-play stretch by Seattle's offense, settling on a field goal.  This drive included a spectacular reverse run by Percy Harvin, proving his worth, even if used rarely this season because of injuries.  That reach by Russell Wilson to try to get the first down looked really good, but the officials, on replay, ruled it just short.
• Then Seattle's defense forced a quick 3-and-out.
• Followed up by Seattle's drive down to get another field goal.
• And, as I thought they might do, Seattle's Kam Chancellor stopped Manning with an interception on a pass that was behind and high.

Second Quarter, ALL ABOUT SEATTLE!

• Seattle gets a touchdown with Beast driving hard from just outside the goal line.
• Denver, seemingly on a long drive with 3 straight 3rd down conversions, turns the ball over as Manning gets hit while letting the ball go...directly into former USC Trojan Malcolm Smith's hands, who ran it all the way back for a touchdown!  The question, it seems, is whether Seattle's defense will outscore its offense.
• On 4th and 2, rather than take a field goal down 0-22, Manning nearly tossed his third interception.  Instead, Seattle stopped Denver and maintained its shutout of Denver's offense.  You better believe, this IS the Legion of Boom.  3/4 of his passes have been under the secondary and just one out on Sherman.
• This is the biggest shutout in the history of the Super Bowl.  It's going exactly as Seattle thought it could go, and nothing close to how Denver thought it might go.

Halftime thoughts

This is slightly off. McCoy is on IR; Malik Jackson played at USC for two years before transferring to Tennessee during the NCAA's unprecedented free agency sanction against the Trojans.

Third Quarter...Almost all Seattle!

• Wow, Percy Harvin started the second half with a dazzling show of speed, racing down some 90 yards returning the opening kickoff for a touchdown!
• Whenever Denver thought it got something going, Seattle's defense steps up and shows that it is not be trifled with, and Malcolm Smith recovers a forced fumble via Kam Chancellor.  This is just nuts how crazy good USC's defense is.  ;)
• Seattle turned that turnover into another 7 points, as Jermaine Kearse punches through arm tackles on a bee line pass from Wilson, into the end zone.  36 - 0, this smells like the USC rout of Oklahoma in 2005, doesn't it?
• Denver scores its first points with seconds left in the 3rd quarter, ending the quarter down 8 - 36.  Not a single throw towards Richard Sherman, by the way.  I'm waiting for it, though, and the interception to come.

Fourth Quarter...ALL SEATTLE!

• What can you say?  Wilson just keeps making the throws he needs to make and Seattle scored with a Baldwin catch and run to make it into the end zone.  22 points in the first half, and now another 20 points in the second half and we still have just under 12 minutes to play.
• Even though Seattle lost Sherman and temporarily Thurmond, the Legion of Boom stopped Denver on 4th down and Seattle turned what was supposed to be the highest-scoring offense in the history of the NFL look like kittens.
• While it made no difference either way, Seattle's defense caused one more fumble.  That made it four turnovers by the best defense in the NFL this year, on its way to Seattle's first championship.

Seattle 27 - Denver 24

I did a couple of calculations on a few seasons and it seemed to prove that Seattle was a clear favorite, so I decided to check the numbers for 2003 - 2013 to see if this was a true interpretation.  I pitted offensive scoring against defensive scoring during the respective regular season.

• Having a better scoring offense doesn't matter as much as people make it out to be.  In fact, based simply on offensive scoring gap (the difference between each team's ppg), the numbers are evenly split (5-5-1).  No SB winner since 2003 has won with a scoring offense gap greater than 5.9.  To the contrary, three games since 2003 have resulted with the loser having a scoring offense gap larger than 5.9, including 2008 where the loser had a 13.5 ppg higher scoring offense than the winner.  Were Denver to win, the scoring offensive gap would be an unprecedented 11.5; as 2008 has shown, were Seattle to win, it would not set a precedence. Advantage: Seattle
• Having a better scoring defense doesn't matter as much as people make it out to be.  The better scoring defense is 4-6-1 (tied because both SB participants had the same ppg scoring defense average).  However it's important to note that when the better defense won, its ppg gap during the regular season was higher than when they lost, which implies that the bigger the gap, the more likely the better defense wins.  For the record, Seattle holds a 10.5 ppg advantage over Denver (2009 Pittsburgh had a higher gap (+12.7), which is to say that Denver's defense is bad, and they would set a remarkable precedence if Denver pulls out a win, but if Seattle wins, they would not set a precedence.  Advantage: Seattle
• Pitting regular season offense scoring against defense scoring, the defense holds a slight advantage, 6-5 since 2003.  But if you average the scoring differential between the two teams, there's a clear tendency for winners to have a significant lean towards having a better defense.  Advantage: Seattle

If I were betting, I'd take Seattle with the +2.5 point spread, definitely.  However, if Denver wins, they will have set a few precedence; that's entirely possible, but I'm about normative trends and a Denver win feels like an outlier beyond what is possible.  If they had a stronger defense (Denver's defense was ranked 22nd in the regular season), they would not be outliers in the numbers.

Bet on the trend, not the bias?  Hard to say, because I'm biased towards Seattle.  Still, one would think that the more likely outcome is a Seattle win.  And hey, I have a 50-50 chance of getting the outcome right.  ;)

Go Hawks. :D

Chris Christie is screwed.

A quick rundown 

David Wildstein resigned from his appointed (by Chris Christie) position as head of the NJ Port Authority, shortly following the release of prior emails showing his complicity and understanding of the political nature of his involvement in shutting down lanes of the GW Bridge (Bridgegate).  He has now come out and stated that he has evidence that, contrary to what Christie has said in public, Christie knew during the shutdown what was really going on.

The consequences

He's in trouble, as this only fuels the media to go digging for evidence of past bullying and possible malfeasance.  More than that, with Wildstein opening the door to show that Christie knew what was going on, the NJ legislature now has reason to call both Christie and Lt. Gov. Kim Guadagno to testify under oath, as to whether either of them knew what was going on.

I point out Guandagno, because she presents a possible opportunity to play prisoner's dilemma between her and Christie.

If Christie and Guadangno both knew what was going on, regardless of whether they lie or tell the truth to that fact, they may both be impeached and face criminal charges for malfeasance.

If they invoke the Fifth Amendment right to avoid self-incrimination, they will be forced out by public opinion or face an official recall vote.  After all, you cannot pretend to take the high ground on this issue and fire everyone involved, only to invoke the right to avoid incriminating one's self.

But for argument's sake, what if they're telling the truth?  They're scarred from future political office, from not having the interest to address the GW Bridge lane shutdown at the time that it was being conducted.  Remember, Christie received emails requesting that the lanes be reopened, as they were closed without any prior warning -- a violation of the Authority's own policies -- but he ignored them.

White House bid is off

There isn't a scenario where Christie regains his stature and popularity, to make a run for the White House.  The truth is set between Christie allowing the Port Authority to do whatever pleased them regardless of the rules, or that he explicitly knew what was going on, and neither narrative is positive.  So, yes, Christie is screwed.  The bridge closure affected Republicans no less than Democrats or Independents; when they closed the bridge, all voters were turned off.