The irony of Yosemite National Park's birthday.

Thanks to today's Google Doodle, we find out that on October 1, 1890 Yosemite National Park was established through the efforts of the naturalist, John Muir.

But ironically, that protection also means that on its birthday, because most of the federal government is shut down, so too is access to the park.  Yosemite, as a national park that keeps America's natural areas accessible to all, is inaccessible.

And there's no timetable for the national parks to reopen, either.

The definition of Compromise. (Updated)

Compromise*:
1. A way of reaching agreement in which each person or group gives up something that was wanted in order to end an argument or dispute.
2. A change that makes something worse and that is not done for a good reason.

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If Compromise means each side gives up something, I don't see where Republicans compromised on their continuing resolution offers.  Shutting down government, after all, isn't a bargaining chip if both sides want to avoid it, so therein lies the answer:

Republicans are looking to make things worse for no good reason.

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* -- Merriam Webster Dictionary

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Just in case some people still don't get it, how about a role-reversal where Democrats control the House and Republicans the White House and Senate:

With polls showing Americans in favor of stricter gun control laws but also against using a government shutdown as leverage, House Democrats first pass a continuing budget resolution with new rules requiring comprehensive background checks and bans on automatic assault rifles.

Following the Republican Senate's actions to pull gun restriction rules from their version of the CR, House Democrats come back with a new CR that lasts for just 3 months, but then also requires a 72 hour hold on all gun sales for FBI background checks.  House Democrats then come out saying that this is a compromise, adding further that if Senate Republicans and the Republican President reject the CR, they're the ones to blame for the shutdown.

Silly, right?  No way would Republicans "compromise", because they know that House Democrats are in fact committing political suicide.

Yet that's exactly what House Republicans (and Senators Ted Cruz, Mike Lee and other conservatives) are trying to tell us.

From sunshine to nonstop rain.

What a week it's been in Portland Oregon ... we went from sunshine and nice days to a weekend of rain and wind and rain and rain and ... well you get the picture.

Just last Thursday it was Sunny Pearl District!

And you know, every time we have one of these major storms roll through here and there are widespread power outages, I am reminded at how lucky I really am for living in downtown where, by law, power lines are underground.  I can count on my one hand, the number of times the power has gone out over the last 15 years.

But the last several days it's been Gloomy Pearl District. :(

All grey, all day, consecutive days of record-breaking rainfall -- having been in a hurricane before, I'd say this is a lot like being on the edge of a hurricane with strong winds and heavy, constant rain.

So saturated, water just stays there in the tree well...and the storms aren't over yet.

At least this isn't the coast where they more than doubled the rainfall in Portland and shattered (not just broke) all sorts of rainfall records.

ASU 62 - USC 41 (USC fires Lane Kiffin) -- updated.

You know how sometimes everyone thinks that because two teams have great defenses, when they meet the match-up will be a low-scoring affair, only to have the opposite occur?  That's what happened.

It's hard to believe, but in the first series of the second half, USC marched down the field in three plays and 46 seconds to score a touchdown and take the lead, 21-20.  Ahem...then ASU marched back up the field in 21 seconds in two plays to take back the lead with their own TD.

Before the third quarter was over, ASU had four TDs in the pocket and a 27 point lead.

That's not to say that the USC defense didn't have some positive moments -- true freshman Su'a Craven's interception comes to mind.  And on offense, fullback Soma Vainuku looked good in run blocking as he always does, and more importantly he didn't drop a pass.  Also, redshirt freshman Tre Madden and true freshman Justin Thomas were unbelievable, the former with 128 yards rushing and the latter with 122.  By virtue of attrition -- see negatives below -- Victor Blackwell got his opportunity to play and looked solid; he also looked like a tight end, with his big frame.

On the negative side, De'Von Fluornoy was out of the game, and Marqise Lee suffered an injury that left him on crutches.  In the fourth quarter, USC had just TWO wide receivers on scholarship, available -- Nelson Agholor and Victor Blackwell -- to which, we must give the NCAA credit for ensuring that USC football athletes would physically suffer for the sins of one player who long ago left the program (just 56 scholarship players made the trip down to Tempe.)  Why just this past week, three scholarship players were done for the season from injuries.

I don't want to end on a negative note, so I think it's worth pointing out that the USC offense actually scored 41 points -- something no one thought they'd be able to do.  Sure, people are calling for Kiffin's head after this nasty loss, but they weren't playing conservative, they didn't quit, and frankly half the blame goes to the defense that mysteriously disappeared.  Oh dammit, that was negative, wasn't it?

Okay, one more positive aspect: They have two weeks to heal and recover from the loss to ASU.

Hopefully AD Pat Haden and the Prez find some balls and fire off a lawsuit against the NCAA.

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Spoke too soon. They found their balls alright: AD Pat Haden "relieved" Lane Kiffin of his head coaching duties after 5 games into the season.  "Relieved" is an odd word to use ... is Haden planning on keeping Kiffin on as offensive coordinator?

I guess we'll find out Sunday afternoon what's going on -- who's taking over.

Sept. 29, 2013 

Lane Kiffin has been relieved of his duties as USC's head football coach, Trojan athletic director Pat Haden announced early today (Sept. 29). 

Haden informed Kiffin of his termination upon the team charter's arrival back in Los Angeles early Sunday morning following USC's 62-41 loss at Arizona State 

Kiffin's Trojans have lost 7 of their past 11 games. USC is 3-2 this year and has lost both of its Pac-12 games. His overall record in 4 years at USC is 28-15. 

Haden will hold a press conference at USC on Sunday afternoon at a time and place to be announced. 

Without a doubt, the loss to WSU was what placed Kiffin on the hot seat.  Giving up 62 points to ASU matched last year's loss to Oregon in the Coliseum, and was the last straw.

ESPN's Shelley Smith says that, contrary to the press release, Kiffin was let go on the flight back home.  Ouch.  She also said that recruits were "dropping off like crazy".  I don't know about that, though.  A third of the top recruits haven't made verbal commitments, which is unlike previous years.

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Update 2: Here's the presser announcing that Kiffin is gone, and introducing Ed Orgeron as the interim head coach. Some have suggested that the decision came during the disastrous third quarter at ASU, where the Sun Devils scored 28 straight points and the team looked like they were in shock.  I can believe that.

On the positive side, USC has two weeks to adjust to the change.

The economy as a hostage and attempted sneaks.

We've been through this before.

2011 Debt Ceiling Fight
The threat: To immediately slash spending by keeping the debt ceiling in place.
The hostage: Government employees, people who use government services and programs, and the economy.
The attempted sneak: House Republicans tried to slip a Balanced Budget Amendment and alternatively their Cut, Cap and Balance plans into any debt ceiling increase.
The "compromise": The Budget Control Act that birthed the sequester cuts and a means to avert one debt ceiling fight that was expected to come, early 2013.
The timing vs the deadline: The House passed the agreed-upon "compromise" on August 1, the Senate followed on August 2, with the President signing it the same day, which was the Treasury's deadline.

2012 Fiscal Cliff Fight
The threat: To allow Bush tax cuts to expire and the sequester cuts remain intact.
The hostage: Taxpayers and the economy.
The attempted sneak: To cut Social Security payments by capping its increase, and spending cuts in lieu of...sequester spending cuts.
The "compromise": A three month delay in the sequester cuts and a temporary extension of some Bush tax cuts.
The timing vs the deadline: Having gone over the fiscal cliff at midnight December 31st, the Senate passed a "compromise" bill around 2:00 am on January 1.  The House spent most of the day debating whether or not they'd pass a bill or wait until the next session was convened, or to add an amendment, finally calling a vote in the hour before midnight, where the majority of Republicans voted against it, but because most Democrats voted for it, the President was able to sign the bill into law before the markets opened on January 2.

2013 FY-2014 Budget Fight
The threat: To shut down government.
The hostage: Government employees, people who use government services and programs (national forests, EPA, Pentagon non-essentials, etc.) and the economy.
The attempted sneak: Defunding Obamacare / delaying Obamacare.
The "compromise":  There is none to be had; the demand by Republicans is to have Democrats and the President capitulate.  (Optionally, John Boehner might slash his own wrists by taking up the Continuing Resolution in a conference committee with the Senate, and allow the Obamacare provisions to be excluded.)
The timing vs the deadline: The fiscal year ends Monday September 30th and the new fiscal year starts October 1st.  Without a budget law in place, the only bills to get paid are non-discretionary (mandatory) programs.  Obamacare is a non-discretionary program.  So far, Republicans are in no rush to prevent a government shutdown.

2013 Debt Ceiling Fight
The threat: To shut down government and cause a selective default.
The hostage: Most of the world -- if the US (the largest economy in the world) defaults, the effects will spread.
The attempted sneak: Defunding Obamacare / delaying Obamacare, slashing spending in lieu of forced slashing of spending.
The "compromise: There is none to be had; the demand by Republicans is to have Democrats and the President capitulate.
The timing vs the deadline: Treasury has given October 17th as their absolute deadline before it defaults on payments.  So far, Republicans have signaled willingness to keep the debt ceiling in place.

At the end of my first month with MetroMile.

So, it's been one month since I switched from State Farms to MetroMile, and, extrapolated for one month, I've saved about 65%.  Or, maybe I should put that into real numbers: If I were to pay $1200 / year or $100 a month, by switching to MetroMile, I'd now be paying $35.  That's a lot of extra trips to the coffee shop.

Now, I don't expect my driven miles to remain this low but by the same token I most certainly won't exceed my monthly budget -- something that is just for personal kicks and does not induce any penalties.

Kind of exciting, really.  Glad I switched.

Basic dashboard info to track my usage -- completely voluntary

Part of the labs section on the MetroMile dashboard

USC 17 - Utah State 14

Here's the quick takeaway: The defense more or less shut down one of the most potent offenses in the FBS, but the offense was so bad, it looked like we were in the first week of the season and not the fourth.

The signs that your offense stinks ...

• In the second half you're starting from your opponent's side of the field four times, but come away with just 3 points;
• You go 3 for 14 (31%) on 3rd down conversions for the game, and are currently averaging 29% for the season;
• The defense plays mostly man-on-man coverage against athletes who are some of the highest-ranked athletes in the country at their position, but you only have 5 catches over 10 yards in the game;
• The offense averages 66 offensive plays and 18 points per game, while the Oregon Ducks average 72 offensive plays a game but a whopping 61 points per game;
• Were it not for the floods in Boulder Colorado preventing the Buffaloes from playing, USC would have the lowest points scored in all of the PAC-12; as it is, the Buffs have only played two games (to USC's four), but are behind the Trojans by just 10 points;
• (In fact, I'm fairly confident that) If the Buffs had played last weekend, USC would be the only team in the PAC-12 held under 100 points, through this weekend.

I'm sure that, were I to go through all of the statistical categories, the USC offense would be at the bottom of nearly all of them in the PAC-12.  After all, they were 90th in total offense last weekend (at the bottom of the PAC-12) and what happened today will only drop them further in all offensive categories.

This is a team of highly-rated 4- and 5-star athletes whose speed, size and abilities put almost all other schools to shame.  And yet here they are struggling to move the ball and put points on the board.

After the game, they were saying that the only thing that separated them from a solid offensive game were slight issues of timing / touch.  True, there were a lot of dropped balls and missed blocks, but this is week four not week one.  Aren't you supposed to iron out those kinks in the first few games, and improve each week?  As it stands, I doubt anyone will pick USC to win at ASU next Saturday.

Two days since iOS 7 is out, two vulnerabilities revealed.

This has to be some sort of record.  Just two days after iOS 7 was released and there's already been two vulnerabilities exposed.  Isn't this what beta software is like?

Only problem is if you don't upgrade to iOS 7, regardless of apps compatibility issues, you'll be stuck with 80 vulnerabilities that are patched by iOS 7.

That's quite the Catch-22.

The irony of widespread NCAA violations in the SEC.

Between last week's Yahoo Sports' report and today's SI coverage of Arian Foster's admission, it's fair to say that there are widespread violations throughout the SEC, and elsewhere in the NCAA.

While I'm not going to argue for or against legalizing the ability of universities to pay players to play, I just wanted to point out that between these two reports, we now have public records of players at Tennessee getting paid before and after, but not during Lane Kiffin's one-year head coaching duties.

Thus the irony is that while people mistakenly think that Kiffin violated rules at Tennessee (he and the football program were cleared of all allegations of major violations), his one-year stint was probably the cleanest one year the Vols had.

Heh.

Let Republicans have their Pyrric victory.

Have you listened to John Boehner and other Republicans lately?  He's said that they're going to do whatever it takes to stop Obamacare, what they deem as a boondoggle and a threat to the economy.

But here's the problem: Their threat in the pocket is to unleash two separate economic implosions on the US -- a continuing resolution to fund financial year 2014 which begins on Oct.1, and the debt ceiling -- to avert Obamacare.

Quite literally, Republicans are threatening us with a Pyrrhic victory.

Having learned from the last three years, Democrats have solidified ranks and are now ready to let Republicans seize their long-sought Pyrrhic victory.  As dumb as it may be to let Republicans destroy the economy, you have to remember that Democrats didn't receive the credit they deserved for trying to avert the last threatened shut-down; in fact, Republicans blamed Democrats for the sequester cuts, even as they took credit for the savings from the cuts.

Senator Ted Cruz has said that he will filibuster the attempt to remove the de-funding portion of the House's continuing resolution.  I say let him have unlimited time to filibuster.  Make Ted Cruz and his supporters assume the costs of the filibuster that prevented a vote that caused the US government to shut down that resulted in a collapsed economy that caused the debt to explode as it always has whenever we've entered a recession.  That'll prove their point, right?

So, no more sequestration deals, no more capitulation, and no more breaking ranks.  Let Republicans have their Pyrrhic victory.

Why Detroit went bankrupt, and why it's unlikely to spread.

I don't expect you to read the entire Detroit Free Press investigative piece, so here's the skinny of it:

If your city's population declines, your city's government spending must also decline, otherwise you're left with growing debt and growing obligations.

Government spending and taxes don't have to be symmetrical to demographic movements, but long-term trends in population change must be addressed sooner rather than later.  After a decade you should be able to tell that something's gone wrong, after all.

While conservatives have come to blame Detroit's public employee pensioners, understand that if Detroit's government had shrunk to match population changes, it wouldn't have built up an excess of pensioners in the first place.  And, while it's popular to blame high taxes on high unemployment, the fact of the matter is, many cities with higher tax burdens have much lower unemployment rates -- Hawaii should serve as an example why tax rates aren't correlated to employment rates -- as shown in this separate report.

As population declines...

You have to reduce government employment...

Otherwise you face increasing tax rates...

And it all ends with exploding debt.

Now, why wouldn't this spread to other cities?  Well, it could, but you have to meet certain conditions.

First, you need either an outmigration of residents or rising unemployment.  Second, short of getting a boost in federal money, the local government must be unresponsive to matching spending levels to revenue.  Third, the government must end up shifting money around by floating bonds which end up maintaining total spending levels.  If you add in corruption that results in higher than necessary spending, then the collapse is even more spectacular.  When those bonds come due, they city can't pay for them because tax revenue never increased despite rising tax rates.  Result: Default.

Rewind back to July 6, 2012: smartphone platforms.

T'was 14 months ago that I blogged about how the company formerly known as RIM was in a death spiral.

"From where I'm standing, it sure looks like RIM is simply following the same path that was blazed by Palm with WebOS, which has been curiously followed by Nokia."

And in the last two weeks we've learned that Nokia has sold off its D and S division to Microsoft while Blackberry is looking to sell itself off and possibly laying off 40% of its staff.  Basically, it's a signal that the only part of Blackbery worth a dime, is the BBM system.

And I'm still relishing this prediction from February 16, 2011:

"I'm calling it: Ballmer is out as CEO at Microsoft, by 2013, when investors realize that Ballmer and company completely missed out on the tablets and smart phone markets."

Prescient, no?

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Speaking of missing out on tablets ...

I've been thinking about Windows desktop OS lately.  The expectation is that Windows 9 would come out in 2015.  If Windows 8.1 doesn't jump start adoption, will the market stick around for Windows 9, or will it move on?  We know that the desktop OS market is being displaced by tablets and smart phones, and in two more years, the trend will be more profound than today.

Look around and you see software companies using a combination of web technologies to move their presence to the cloud, and in doing so, exchange software sales to subscriptions or service fees.  Autodesk has AutoCAD 360, a less than robust replacement of AutoCAD LT to be sure, but not many people use much of AutoCAD LT, let alone the full blown version of AutoCAD. By the way, notice that there's no Windows RT or W8 app.

Same goes for graphics apps.  Autodesk's SketchBook is really good.

Hypothetically speaking, if Windows' move to Live Tiles UI for touch had worked, the shortfall from desktops should have been compensated for, by a rush of tablet purchases with the standard Windows OS, regardless of how RT performed.  But since both RT and the regular Windows tablets have failed to gain traction, the bottom line here is that Windows is failing fast.

Live Tiles has failed.  Unless Microsoft were ready to ditch their UI, I'd suggest that there's not much chance that Windows makes a comeback in 2015.

So what if the Naval Yard shooter was Buddhist?

The absolute dumbest proposition has made its way through the internet via WaPo:

"In the aftermath of the Navy Yard shootings, gunman Aaron Alexis’s interest in Buddhism seemed at odds with conventional Western stereotypes of blissed-out meditators."

Casually attributing meditating Buddhists as "blissed-out", is utterly moronic, because the goal of meditation (and the core point of Buddhism) is equanimity, not bliss.

Furthermore, using violence is antithetical to the Noble Eightfold Path towards Enlightenment, which therefore means that the Naval Yards killer hadn't truly accepted the Four Noble Truths of Suffering.  The bottom line is, this instance demonstrates a lack of devotion to Buddhism.

Also, I take exception to the writers' inclusion of this paragraph:

As Buddhism has spread in the West, it has put forth and maintained an image of being a peaceful religion,” Buddhist ethicist Justin Whitaker, author of the American Buddhist Perspective blog, wrote Tuesday. “This is a myth."

It is patently false to claim that Buddhism isn't a peaceful religion.

Violence perpetuates suffering and suffering is categorically contrary to the Path of Enlightenment.  You cannot have it both ways.  If Buddhist practitioners commit violence, it is false inductive reasoning to disassociate Buddhism from its peaceful trait.  As I have long argued, it is not the religion that is violent, but its practitioners who twist religion to justify their needs, outright misunderstand it, or simply ignore it.  And, as we are only human, we are imperfect in following a righteous path.  Or put a different way, God is the only perfection; you cannot associate the imperfect acts of humans with God.  Not even the original disciples of Jesus were perfect.

The fact of the matter is, the overriding issue wasn't Alexis' religion, but his imperfect self.  He failed to accept the Four Noble Truths and he most certainly did not follow the Noble Eightfold Path towards Enlightenment.

Some people say there's no need to panic over climate change.

Uh.

Maybe it is time to panic?

Pundits don't believe.

I'm confused as to why pundits on the left are insisting that the Obama administration lucked out by an "off the cuff remark" by Secretary Kerry.  Heck, I blogged about the premise of the plan weeks ago.  I posted the outline of my plan elsewhere, too.

The Obama Administration should focus its target on the chemical weapons themselves and push any ideas of punishing Assad back to the International Court in the Hague for the time being. 

This way, if the chemical weapons were removed from the region, the Russians could be reminded that this would be good news for them and their Syrian friends, as the rebels won't be able to steal and use Syria's chemical weapons on its own people to gain media attention and outside interference. 

So, first option is to push for a resolution to allow the UN to remove or destroy all chemical weapons in Syria. The second option, should Russia and/or China veto the first option, is to use force to destroy as many chemical weapons as possible. 

After all, what could be worse for Syria, than to see the rebels steal chemical weapons, then use it on either their own supporters or Syrian troops? It's not like Assad can use these weapons anyway... 

well therein lies the problem if we do nothing. If we do nothing, then Assad is free to assume that using chemical weapons is inconsequential to his regime.

As I wrote earlier this week, if I could come up with this basic outline, so could many other folks; it's not like I'm the smartest dog in the room.  The only question was, how to bring this plan forward.  As I said, Cass Sunstein was a big influence on President Obama, so it shouldn't be a surprise if the administration came up with a "nudge".  It wouldn't be the first time someone used subterfuge to manipulate others.

I understand that pundits think that there has been a string of missteps in foreign policy, and therefore this was just another case of maladroit handling, rather than a Sunstein nudge.  Whatever.  The point of careful subterfuge, is to avoid detection and therefore blowback.

An amazing methodology to create 3D models from a single photo.

Via On 3D Printing blog, an amazing proof of concept at Siggraph 2013, shows how an Israeli team has built software that can be used to easily build a 3D model from a single photo.  To understand how this is done, just watch the video.

It's absolutely amazing and would be a massive time saver.

The five signs that Microsoft is under duress.

The five signs that Microsoft is under duress:

• Their Windows partners have started branching out to Google's Chrome OS.  This Fall there will be Chrome OS devices from Acer, ASUS, HP, Toshiba and Samsung.
• Nokia was ready to move to Android starting in 2014, and were they to do so, analysts agree that Windows Phone was a dead mobile platform.  But having bought out Nokia's Devices and Services division, Microsoft is relying on vague and rhetorical arguments that it will magically triple its market share over the next four years.  Nokia was instrumental in growing WP's market share, but the boost isn't anywhere big enough to extrapolate to a tripling of market share in four years.
• Windows RT, a complete rewrite of code to support ARM processors, was made moot by Intel's Haswell.  Why?  Because you're going to be able to sideload your existing Windows apps / software, while enjoying the competitive specs (battery life + performance) of ARM mobile chips.  Microsoft's partners even say so.  And it was predicted this past Spring.
• It's bad enough that Intel's new SOC chip makes Windows RT moot, but Intel is a member of the Open Handset Alliance and has made a significant push to support Android with its Android-IA.  But it's hard to blame Intel, since Windows 8 has had uninspiring adoption rates, and Android device sales is set to overtake Windows next year.
• For all of the billions spent trying to boost Bing, Bing's market share hasn't budged all that much.  Even Yahoo wants out, albeit there's probably some bias with Marissa Mayer at the helm.

It doesn't mean that Microsoft will "fail". What it means is that Microsoft is quickly losing its standing in the tech industry as a vital partner that everyone wanted to hook up with.

Microsoft of late hasn't been the kind of company that can move fast enough to keep up with Google and many others, which makes its acquisition of Nokia's D&S odd, because Nokia made their transition to WP relatively fast, but now it's under the wing of a company not known to move nearly as fast.  I've been down on Stephen Elop quite a lot, but he did manage to make Nokia move twice as fast as Blackberry; were he to speed up Microsoft, we're talking a different story.  Still, corporate culture is hard to change overnight.

The quirks of getting Amazon packages. [Updated]

I bought a bunch of things on Amazon last week, and I thought I'd share their journey with you.

It all started last week Tuesday when I ordered an off-brand remote release shutter, a 77mm circular polarizer, a stylus for my tablet and an extension tube for macro photography, with free super-saver shipping.  Several days passed.  I began to worry that my order got lost in the Amazon....warehouse.

On Friday, the first of two orders shipped from Georgia, via USPS, posted with a delivery for the 12th.  It arrived at my post office on the 9th.

Meanwhile, the other package shipped on Sunday, with a scheduled delivery date of today, the 11th.  It was shipped via FedEx SmartPost, and transferred over to USPS.  It arrived on the 10th and was available to pick up that same day -- see my previous post with some playing around with the macro extension tube.

As for that package that arrived on the 9th at my post office...

It just sat there.

No action.

Waiting.

Sigh.

So to recap: One package that was shipped on the 6th via entirely within USPS will have sat at the post office for three days before I can pick it up, while the other package shipped via FedEx then transferred to USPS, was out the door two days later but came two days sooner.

Weird.

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Update: Here's the event log:

Scheduled Delivery Day: September 12, 2013
Arrival at Post Office	September 12, 2013, 7:59 am	97208
Depart USPS Sort Facility	September 12, 2013	97208
Processed through USPS Sort Facility	September 11, 2013, 8:31 pm	97208
Shipment Accepted	September 9, 2013, 1:08 pm	97208

97208, the zip code of the primary sorting facility, is the same giant structure where my post office box is. It just sat there in the building since Monday.  No kidding.

Did Obama stumble into the current Syrian plan?

There's a lot of written material out there saying that President Obama stumbled into the current chemical weapons seizure plan, via Secretary Kerry's off the cuff remark.  But that doesn't make sense.  I get that the media wants to believe that there have been a series of tragic accidents in his Syria policy, but they have to overcome a whole bunch of things to get there.

• John Kerry is no verbal slouch; he was the Democratic nominee for president, after all, and did well in the presidential debates.  Politicians like Kerry, having spent decades in public service, know to be careful of every word they speak.
• Cass Sunstein.  As the administrator of the White House Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs (2009 - 2012)  then an outside consultant to President Obama, he wrote a book, Nudge, that should have clued people in as to what really happened.  I was late to the game in reading Sunstein (and Richard Thaler) I figured it out the moment it was called an off-the-cuff remark, that it wasn't.
• I'm intelligent, but there are millions of equally smart or smarter people out there, especially in the White House, so if I come up with that same plan -- to dangle a UN resolution to take the chemical weapons away -- weeks ago, it's assured that this idea was floating around in the White House, too.  And since they've been tracking Syrian chemical weapons for over a year, it's probably been in their arsenal of policy options for the past year.
• And it turns out that President Obama had been talking to President Putin about getting rid of chemical weapons through the UN, at least since last year.

It's really sly: Secretary Kerry's remark was a planted suggestion to get the Russians and Syria's Bashar Al Assad to jump on it, then own it.  When you let someone take credit for an idea, they become thrilled about it, then work hard to ensure its success.  I've done this a few times myself, so the first conclusion I have, knowing that Cass Sunstein was a strong influence in the White House, is that this -- chemical weapons under UN program -- was the true goal all along.

An aside: There was one error in this, by letting the French draft the UN resolution.  President Obama's inclusion of the French was separately motivated to give the US' only other major ally on the military strike option, a reward for sticking with Obama.  But the White House should have requested that the Russians draft up a resolution, in order to get the Russians to own the disarmament path, and take responsibility of its failure, including the need to resort to military strikes.

Or you can just read everything that goes on in the world at face value, if you want. It's not as if people who write and speak in public, especially in the media, have a hidden agenda, right?  ;)

The President's priorities and the far-right's propaganda war.

I heard the dumbest thing following the President's address to the nation regarding Syria.  A news reporter asked different people what they thought about action over Syria, and this person responded by suggesting that Congress and the President focus on more important issues.

Guess what that issue was.  Go ahead, take a wild guess.  I'll wait.

You might think it would be the debt ceiling.  Maybe job growth.  Maybe even the IRS, even though that story is pretty much disproven and dead.  None of that.

Nope, none of those things were on the mind of this interviewed person.  The issue that this person wanted Obama to place over gassed Syrians, was the defunding of Obamacare.

Now, I normally give people the benefit of the doubt that, absent information, they're just being manipulated.  But if you actually believe that the President would contemplate defunding Obamacare after all of the political capital he spent building it, the problem here is you.  Asking the President to choose between Syria and defunding Obamacare is an explicit oxymoron.

But then again, humanity was never the human race's highest priority.

Just profit margins.

Quick experiments in super-macro photography. [Updated]

Just a quick post.  Got my Fotodiox Nikon Macro Extension Tube Kit in the mail tonight.  Last week the priced dropped below $10, so I grabbed it (it's gone back up to the previous price at $11.13).

It's not easy to attach and it's not easy to focus either (manual only).  I'm going to run outside and do some photos this week to test in full sun, but here's some fuzzy photos from just tonight.  FYI, unlike using a 105mm macro lens that gives you the ability to shoot macro from further away, the 49mm tube and a 55mm macro lens means you're just an inch or so away from your subject.

A white peach up close

A sliced green bell pepper up close

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Update: I was playing around with other lenses and while the ultra-wide zoom didn't work out, the prime 85mm f/1.8 AF worked really well which was fascinating because it's a portrait lens with a minimum 2.8' focus distance, but with the extension tube it was 6".  I might start using this lens instead of the 55mm macro.

One image I took at f/16, the other one at f/1.8.  No photoshop blurring needed.

Fuzzy yellow peach

Fuzzy yellow peach

Syria to allow international control of its chemical weapons?

This is a big game changer, and welcome news.

Monday morning, Secretary of State John Kerry said that Syria could avoid a strike by giving up all of its chemical weapons.  Right after that, Russia proposed that Syria give up its chemical weapons to the international community to be destroyed.

In other words, the perfect outcome.  As I wrote two weeks ago:

"This doesn't mean that the US strike unilaterally, now.  What the US could do, is demand that the UN be allowed to go in and destroy (or remove) all chemical weapons on both sides, and quickly.  Without agreement, the US will therefore have a green light to unilaterally take out those chemical weapons."

Now, this is not the end game.  The devil is in the details, after all.

Firstly, the US will need to keep up the pressure and pass a resolution to allow for a military strike, or at least wait long enough to have the UN pass a resolution.  Without it, Syria has the room to wiggle and ignore the proposal.

Secondly, following the post-1990 Gulf War experience, the US must be careful to write in specific punitive relief if Syria plays the same games as Saddam Hussein's regime did.  Delays and other tactics should result in punitive measures such as the set up of UN-protected  FSA-controlled regions within Syria, with 100 mile DMZs.  Each delay results in newly established protected zones that encroach on government-controlled sections.

Thirdly, the UN must provide allowances to line Syria's borders adjacent to Lebanon, with peacekeepers to block the outflow of chemical weapons to Hezbollah.

And that is how you intervene to remove chemical weapons, with the best outcome.  You see, unlike the majority of people, I do think it is an important US goal to remove chemical weapons from Syria.

Pop Sci mag for $5 / year!

Via 1saleaday, they have a bunch of print magazines on the cheap, with multi-year options. Popular Science, delivered for three years and a total of $15 -- that's how much a single year digital subscription costs -- is just crazy awesome!  They also have ESPN magazine Discovery, and Car and Driver, each for $5 a year.

It's the cheapest price anywhere.

Oh, and the deal ends at 9:00 pm PDT Monday, Sept 9, so hurry.

Final: USC 7 - WSU 10

Well, I was wrong, but not in a bad way.

I started writing this at the end of the 3rd quarter, but I had to redo it, because it ended a lot worse than I thought it could possibly end. I honestly thought USC's defense was going to score one for the team, bad as the game was, I didn't think they'd lose it.  As any WSU fan would say, the Trojans Coug'd it, and that started with the Kessler interception for a touchdown.

First, I was completely right on the point of USC's defense and WSU's offense.  Halliday threw for two more interceptions, one which negated a possible scoring opportunity for the Cougars.  Like I said, just because you throw for a bunch of yards with a ton of attempts, does not make for good offense.  USC's defense is awesome and Clancy Pendergast is a really great defensive coordinator.

But what I didn't realize, was how crappy the offense was.  Instead of progressing, the offense regressed, and by regressed, I mean they were too cerebral about what an offense is supposed to do.

I can see why there was a fight in the locker room at the Sun Bowl.  The offense stinks, because right or wrong, Kiffin does not trust his quarterbacks, so they've thrown sideways mostly.  USC's quarterbacks passed for just 2.6 yards per attempt.  That's so pathetic, it's USC offensive.  Heh.

And just as you saw in the Sun Bowl, when Wittek threw down field, it was Tebowed.  In other words, if was way off and ugly, and one got intercepted.  Both Kessler and Wittek were crappy.

Half the fans began walking out of the then 7-7 tied game in the fourth quarter.  It's as if they knew the outcome even though the game was tied, because they had zero confidence in Kiffin's play-calling.  The WSU broadcasters were just flabbergasted at all the fans leaving the Coliseum early.

The way they're headed, USC might not even reach .500 this year.

On the bright side of things, I guess I'll have more time to watch House of Cards, Leverage's final season, and Spartacus: War of the Damned, on DVDs this Fall, as well as streaming to my TV via Chromecast.

---

Update: After-game presser.



There might be one more bright side to all this: In desperation, Kiffin might go with the true freshman, Max Browne.  Hey, if you're going to have a losing season, let the Gatorade Offensive POTY learn on the field.

PPS: Wanted to clarify that USC didn't lose because this was a trap game that USC fell for. As I wrote on Friday, USC's secondary would do fine against Conner Halliday, and they did. If this were a trap game, then USC would be reasonably expected to win the vast majority of their games this season. At this point however, they look like they might lose most of their games this year, and the WSU loss was just the first sign of an impending collapse.

Smart watches are dumb.

Yoda never wore a smart watch; neither did Spock, or anyone on the cargo ship the Firefly, or in Farscape.

The only time you've ever seen a smart watch worn was in the 30s, by Dick Tracy.  To me, this should be a sign that watches in general, are a decorative anachronism to an analog age.  The exception being, people who need watches because they're either athletes, remotely located or in the military, in which case they don't need a smart watch, so much as a reliably always available and accurate watch.

Where's the curved, indestructible, bendable glass that's so thin, you can barely tell that you're wearing a watch?  At least if you're going to show off a smart watch, don't make it look like my old Casio from elementary school.  Back then, having a calculator on your arm was useful because we didn't have smart phones and the only calculators available were the bulky ones like the HP 10c.  (Oops, I just dated myself once again!)

Ah well.  I got bored, so I wasted half a day playing around building my own.

Prediction: USC 49 - WSU 10

I'm not going to start up a weekly prediction of the PAC-12 or USC like I did last year, but this weekend's game predictions online have been bugging me.

I get that people believe in Mike Leach's team, mostly because they were able to hang with Auburn in the rowdy Jordan-Hare Stadium.  But you know, Auburn sucked last year even worse than WSU.  Auburn had just two wins against FBS teams -- New Mexico State and Louisiana-Monroe -- with NMSU probably the worst team in the FBS for the entirety of the last decade (2.9 wins average over the last 10 years), while their win over ULM required overtime, in Jordan-Hare Stadium.  I'm not exaggerating, Auburn really bit the dust.

And, take out its win on the road against a lowly UNLV (just two wins last year) last year and WSU averaged just 8.4 points on the road.

But take a closer look at that game down at Auburn.  Conner Halliday threw one touchdown but was intercepted three times, and made just 5.29 yards / attempt.  Last year he threw for 15 touchdowns but had 13 interceptions with 6.45 yards / attempt.  Those are abysmal stats, but somehow people think that he's going to challenge the USC secondary?  I think not!  Two names: Su'a Cravens and Dion Bailey.

Then, there's the issue of playing in the Coliseum.  The last time WSU visited the Coliseum (and lost) was in 2009.  In other words, the majority of players will have never stepped foot into the Coliseum under the bright lights at night, as the blur of Marqise Lee, Nelson Agholor, Justin Davis, Tre Madden and the rest of the Trojans zoom by.

The difference between USC receivers grabbing tons of yards and touchdowns in Honolulu, is a matter of a bunch of dropped balls by your top receivers.  That score could have easily been 51 - 13.

If there was going to be a trap game between these two teams, it'd be next year up in Pullman, not this year down in Los Angeles.  The real question here is, when USC is up big and Kessler is pulled, will Kiffin stop Wittek in the second half from throwing down field?  If so, then the score will be as I predicted, if not, it'll get ugly and it could be 63 - 10.

USC 49 - WSU 10

Did Iran just declare war on the US?

Via J-Post (and others), the US intercepted a message from  the leader of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards' Quds force, ordering its allies to attack US interests in Iraq, if the US intervened militarily in Syria.

By most measures, that's a conditional declaration of war against the United States.

So like I said in my previous post, if Iran attacks US interests, they're risking a complete annihilation of their nuclear program.  Now that they've been caught red-handed, a proxy war becomes a direct declaration of war against the US.

The irony of it all: The conservative side of US Congress hates Iran more than any other country, and by this intercept, they may have prodded them to vote for a Syrian intervention, by way of defiance against Iran's threats.

July 2013 comScore US smartphone market share report is out.

comScore just released its July 2013 report which now has a section on the most popular apps and sites accessed via Android and iOS devices.  Needless to say, Google has five of the top six apps accessed via smart phones, and along with web browsing has a 92.6% reach -- the highest of any company.

Of course, the thing everyone wants to see, is the smartphone market share data.

Top Smartphone Platforms 3 Month Avg. Ending Jul. 2013 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Apr. 2013 Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Age 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
	Apr-13	Jul-13	Point Change
Total Smartphone Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%	N/A
Android	52.0%	51.8%	-0.2
Apple	39.2%	40.4%	1.2
BlackBerry	5.1%	4.3%	-0.8
Microsoft	3.0%	3.0%	0.0

To dig down further, this is how each platform has performed the trailing 12 months.  You'll notice that Google is slightly higher than 12 months ago, but Apple has surged in the last 12 months, taking market share away from Blackberry and Microsoft.

Dig down even further, and Android has hit a peak in the US.

Apple's iPhone meanwhile, is slowly climbing.

And as usual, Blackberry can't stop its falling market share.  They're still losing customers, which has to be disconcerting.

Windows Phone has hit bottom in terms of market share, but hasn't moved from the bottom, in the US.  In fact, by extrapolation of comScore's total US smartphone numbers, WP lost more subscribers than Blackberry.

So much for the theory of a viable third platform.

August 2013 BLS Employment Report: Steady and boring?

No one is excited about this morning's BLS employment report, primarily because the labor participation rate continued to drop, which allowed the unemployment rate to dip to 7.3%.  And while the BLS estimates that +169,000 jobs were created in August, it was below expectations set up by yesterday's ADP employment report showing a gain of 176,000 private jobs in August.

It's not that the economy is slowing down, but that job creation has been exceedingly steady, but lower than what most people want to see following the second-largest recession in US history.

Job creation as fast as before, but not fast enough

3 years of extremely steady (narrow band of upper and lower) job creation

The alternative measurement of labor underutilization number that is frequently cited as the true measure of unemployment -- U6 -- is 13.7%, which is now at its lowest point since December 2008.  That's got to be worth something.

U6 comparison by presidential terms

Fewer federal jobs now than before Obama took office

I've figured out why it feels like a jobless recovery, though.  The gains in employment haven't been within the crucial 25-54 age group.  I'll cover that in a separate post.

The odd argument over fear of Syria's reaction to being punished.

I've read and listened to many people suggesting that Syria may react to being punished by retaliating, eventually leading to boots on the ground, and therefore, we should stay away.  The idea that we should be wary of Syria's reaction to being punished, just feels odd, though.

Avoid punishing out of fear of response?
Do you just ignore your child, if he or she is exhibiting bad behavior, because you're afraid of what he or she might do in response?

Do you ignore a criminal's actions, because you're afraid of what he or she might do in reaction to punishment?

Do you avert your eyes of the hostage taker?

If Syria acts out, you escalate your response: You broadly target Assad's military infrastructure.  If he throws a tantrum, you go after military equipment and implement a no-fly zone; if he goes off the deep end, you use drones to take out government leaders.

You think Iran's going to retaliate?  The US military would love nothing more than the excuse to wipe out Iran's nuclear infrastructure by bunker busters and cluster bombs.

You think Hezbollah will provide a retaliatory terrorist hit?  We know where Hezbollah lives.  If the US wipes out Hezbollah fighters, Assad collapses and Israel is safer -- a double bonus.

You think more people will die, now, because Assad will unleash whatever chemical weapons he has left?  How so?  The counterfactual scenario of non-involvement means that Assad is free to use chemical weapons as much as he wants!  The key difference between non-intervention and intervention, is that we would have reduced his capability to continue chemical warfare, and therefore fewer people will be killed.

There is no credible scenario where US boots are needed
There just is no need for boots on the ground, as the Syrian rebels are the boots on the ground.  Hell, the Free Syrian Army would rather we give them ammunition than to have US troops on the ground, fighting their war.

And frankly, just taking out parts of Assad's infrastructure may be enough for the rebels to take over and sweep Assad out, or encourage high-level officials to simply wrest Syria away from Assad and bring him to trial.

Why would we need boots on the ground, anyway?  We are not there to fight for the Syrians rebels; we are not there to recreate the Middle-East in the image of a western democracy; we are not there looking to provide leadership in nation building; we are not there to do someone else's job.

I really can't stand that Yahoo! logo.

So I made my own. :D

As always (with my designs), there are multiple metaphors to the exclamation point:

• As a keyhole to unlock content;
• As a magnifying glass to search with;
• As a powered speaker, where you can hear the 'ol Yahoo yodeler.

You can practically hear the yodeler saying, "Yahoooo-oooh!"

Obamacare premiums: the prices keep falling.

Kaiser Family Foundation released a study of preliminary prices from 17 state and DC health insurance exchanges, and finds that costs are significantly lower than previously anticipated.  In other words, the biggest benefit here are those who do not qualify for any federal subsidy, and must either choose to buy on the open market, pay a fine or buy from the exchanges.

But wait, the news is actually probably a lot better than the KFF's information shows.  HHS (ASPE Office of Health Policy) released a study this past July showing that prices are really going to drop a lot for some people.

But wait, we already knew this past June that prices were going to be lower than expected.

But wait, I haven't even gotten to the best part...well at least for me.  Recall that I wrote this past June that Avik Roy's article in Forbes was terrible, notably his citation of higher prices in the preliminary ACA numbers, compared to what could be found online at eHealthInsurance.  As I noted then:

"If you try to compare prices between ACA rates and those on the open market, you're not comparing apples to apples."

 Well, as that KFF report stated:

"The coverage that will be available to people in exchanges will differ from coverage now sold in the individual insurance market in several important ways ... These changes make direct comparisons of exchange premiums and existing individual market premiums complicated, and doing so would require speculative assumptions and data that are not publicly available."

So I say again, you have to be careful as to who you pay attention to, because a lot of people out there are either disingenuous or not very intelligent.

You see, when people actually take a look at these plans, they will love the prices and the rash of new rules that benefit all Americans.  Obamacare will come back to haunt Republicans who have been adamantly opposed to funding the ACA.

Yikes!: Yahoo! logo remake.

IDK about anyone else, but I was more than underwhelmed by the Yahoo! logo remake.

I guess I was not expecting a conservative remake that looked like it was chiseled out of a piece of marble, from 2000 years ago.

When phones go bad.

Yikes.  I just spent the better part of 2.5 hours resolving my GS-II phone's sudden fixation of being stuck in boot.  I don't know what caused the problem in the first place, but I have my suspicions: Salesforce app Go.  It was kind of crappy loading up, slowing things down.

I'd taken the battery out and put it back in to do a restart, but that didn't work.  In the end, I had to perform a factory reset that wiped all data and cleaned up whatever was causing the phone to remain stuck in boot-up.

The benefit of the factory reset: it worked.  If you need help figuring out how to reset a T989, watch this video.

The downside of the factory reset: all my app settings, login info and layouts were cleared, and because the last mandatory OTA update from T-Mo was 4.1.2, in order to get the optional 4.2.2 update, I have to connect to Kies -- something I have yet to do.

With Android, all of your Google Play apps are sync'd to your account, though you do have to update them, some manually.  It's not like before, where you'd have to go and download each app, assuming you could remember your list of apps -- that used to be a real pain in the butt.

For a while I was split between panicking about my phone going off the deep end and needing to buy a new phone short of the 2 year contract period's expiration, and excitement of buying a new phone.  Fortunately, I can put off that decision until after the next Nexus phone and the Moto X for T-Mobile are out, to compare prices and features (fingers crossed).

MSFT is down 4.6% today because..?

There's a simple explanation as to why MSFT is down 4.6% today, following their announcement that they're acquiring NOK: Short-term profitability will be significantly affected, and long-term profit growth is questionable.

But that's no fun.  In this blog, we (and when we say "we" I mean "I") like to cynically mock events worthy of making fun of.  So onto the question of the day.

MSFT is down 5% today because...?:

1. There's nothing worse than jumping 30 feet off a burning platform, than jumping into a bottomless pit off a burning platform.
2. Stephen Elop, aka candidate for future CEO of Microsoft, aka the opposite of Midas Touch, aka Mr. Death Grip.
3. The reorg chart issued last month has been reorg'd, and is now referred to as the "Curly Shuffle". [nya, nya]
4. We were expecting great things and big changes, but instead we got Elop'd.
5. The big money's on a company with a very bright future, called Nokia, where the price shot up 31%, purely out of coincidence.

NOK sells Devices & Services division to MSFT; MSFT installs Elop as head of division.

So, the big news tonight is that Microsoft has agreed to buy out the Devices and Services division at Nokia, which is the group responsible for feature and smart phones, as well as an expected RT tablet.  In turn, Nokia CEO Stephen Elop is leaving Nokia and joining Microsoft to head their newly added-on Devices and Services division.

In essence, Microsoft sent Stephen Elop to Nokia to get them to adopt Windows Phone and RT while devaluing the company so that Microsoft could acquire it on the cheap, then bring Elop back.  Well, if you're cynical about it, that is.

So, I sort of got the prediction right in Feb 2011:

"And when I say that Nokia is doomed, what I really mean is that Elop will be gone in less than two years, though it might occur as early as calendar Q1-2012, and that Nokia might end up selling itself to a Chinese competitor or to Google.  Lord knows, Google has longed for the ability to make its own mobile phones, if only to push other manufacturers to incorporate new technologies at a much faster pace.  But if tossed out early enough, Nokia might be able to salvage MeeGo. 

I'm calling it: Ballmer is out as CEO at Microsoft, by 2013, when investors realize that Ballmer and company completely missed out on the tablets and smart phone markets."

It was slightly more than two years, and Nokia ended selling its D and S to Microsoft instead of to a Chinese competitor or Google.  But hey I should get major points --BOOYA! -- for citing the departure of Elop from Nokia and Ballmer at Microsoft, more or less within that time line, right?  No one else came up with that prediction as early as 2011.

USC tied for most players in 2013 NFL rosters.

NFL rosters have been cut down to the mandatory 53 (and on injured reserve), and thus, after some number crunching USC is tied with Georgia with the most players in the NFL on starting day.  I'm sure by now USC broke some sort of record of number of years straight with the most number of players in the NFL on starting day.

Another interesting thing, is that Oregon isn't second in the PAC-12 with the most NFL players; that distinction goes to Cal.  Better yet: USC, Cal and Oregon all have more players in the NFL than Notre Dame.

School	# players in NFL
USC	42
LSU	42
Georgia	40
Miami	39
Alabama	34
Texas	34
Cal	33
Florida State	33
Florida	31
Ohio State	31
Tennessee	30
Oregon	29
Notre Dame	27
South Carolina	27

PAC-12 School	# players in NFL
USC	42
Cal	33
Oregon	29
UCLA	22
Stanford	21
Utah	19
Oregon State	18
Washington	13
Arizona State	12
Arizona	11
Colorado	10
Washington State	8

Football athletes go to USC to get to the NFL.

The world discovers the result of its ambivalence towards chemical weapons.

I was expecting to write about this, a week or so from now, but after a week of watching Britain back off from any response to the use of chemical weapons in Syria, followed by Americans stepping back from intervention, we now have Bashar Al Assad's response: gloating.

Now, I'm not saying that he provided a prima facie case of his guilt, but someone who didn't use chemical weapons, wouldn't be gloating over a lack of response; he'd be using it as proof that he didn't use chemical weapons.

As I wrote before, it doesn't matter who used the chemical weapons, but as the White House's map of the attacks shows, the August 21st attack is spread out by 12 miles in a dozen locations, between rebel-dominant and contested locations.

So if you actually believe that the rebels planned this attack against their own, then you have to believe that they were able to disseminate, coordinate and properly deliver these chemical weapons, despite prior evidence that the rebels are not all aligned with each other and aren't well coordinated.  Heck, there's even a civil war between the Free Syria rebels and the Al Nusra religious extremists.

Now, a lot of people are worried that Assad will make good on his threats to attack Israel, or that he has the ability to attack US forces.  But if he had the ability to attack Israel with meaningful consequences or confront American forces, why hadn't he responded to other Israeli attacks this year to stop the movement of arms from Syria to Hezbollah?  Or why hasn't he been able to put down the rebels, apparently holding back, even as his influence and secured areas shrank?

This is not Iraq, and this is not Serbia.  Damascus is barely able to run even with the rebels, and the only serious threat that Assad has, is his chemical weapons; in a single day he killed thousands of people with a limited release.  He cannot use chemical weapons outside of his border, except in a final act of futility, as it would guarantee a response of deadly regime change.  But without an external response to his use of chemical weapons, he has a green light to continue to use his chemical weapons within his borders, whenever he feels threatened at the edge of Damascus.  Damascus' edges is Assad's own red line.  Imagine what happens when the rebels breach Damascus' edge.

And that is why someone needs to eliminate the chemical weapons in Syria.