January 2013 ADP Employment Report: More job growth.

A quick run down of ADP's post adjustments: November 2012 was continuously adjusted upward from an initial 118,000 jobs, to 148,000 last month, to the final 173,000 tally in this month's report.  December 2012 was adjusted downward from 215,000 to 185,000.  I think it's safe to say that the BLS' January report (out this Friday) will show an upward adjustment to its December data.

According to ADP, January 2013 resulted in the creation of 192,000 jobs.  Not as good as last month's headline number, but it is better than last month's revised number, and if ADP's report is to be trusted, this would mark five straight months of accelerating jobs growth.

Here's a guess: conservatives will go into fits of rage if Friday's BLS report reflects similar numbers, saying that this data does not jibe with the negative GDP.  Mind you, in the previous post, the first thing I pointed out was that nominally, Q4-2012 seasonally-adjusted GDP increased 0.5%.

US GDP shrinks slightly (0.1%)

First, a small footnote to the US GDP contraction: If you look at the data reported, the seasonally-adjusted, whole-year GDP for Q4-2012 grew 0.5%.  But adjusted for inflation, it shrank 0.1%.

Okay, now that we got that out of the way, what dragged down the US GDP?  Mostly defense spending (-22.2% from the preceding quarter), but gross private domestic investment was also down (-0.6%).

Because consumer spending was up, and because the defense spending drop was considered to be one-time items, most economists think this negative GDP wasn't all that bad, and isn't a sign of an oncoming recession.  But -- again, you knew a but was coming -- we have just one problem, and that is that the sequester cuts that were kicked down the road for a couple of months, may yet slash defense and discretionary spending.

Again, this points to the fact that total GDP  = total GDP.  No matter how much conservatives want to poo-poo government GDP, the fact of the matter is, government spending, if cut drastically, is damaging; it'd be similar to the credit contraction that caused the 2008 recession.

Or we could have the Republican Balanced Budget Amendment and its de facto equivalent of the debt ceiling.

---

Update: Leaving no hypocrisy unturned, Republicans have used this GDP contraction (due to lower government spending) to mock President Obama.

Let me restate: Republicans are suggesting that the drop in GDP, because of lower government spending, is bad.

[scratching head]

It's a post-Microsoft world, you just didn't realize it.

Times, they are a changing.

Word is, that HP will introduce a Chromebook.  That comes on the heels of Lenovo's announcement last week, that they were bringing out their own Chromebook in February.  Lenovo's entry followed updated models from both Acer and Samsung, late last year.

In addition, this morning Acer's president Jim Wong said that since its introduction last November, their Chromebook has accounted for somewhere between 5 and 10 percent of their US PC shipments, which was better than Windows 8 PCs.

It seems that we're well on our way in a post-Microsoft world, and that scream you hear, is Steve Ballmer pulling his hair out (and throwing chairs around at people).

Credit card swipe fees.

Retailers who take credit cards, have to pay a percentage of the amount that is charged plus a small flat amount as a base -- swipe fees.  Now, as part of last year's settlement with credit card companies, retailers are allowed to add a surcharge to recover these fees.

This is an important means of recovering the fees charged, especially the flat fee portion for each credit card swipe, for small businesses faced with people who charge small amounts (say $5).

On the other hand retailers, if in business long enough, have already priced their goods to incorporate this as a markup on their goods and services, up to a point.

The way I see it, just don't use your credit card to make small charges.  If we can all agree to stop using our credit cards for amounts under $5, then retailers should agree not to add surcharges for anything above $5.

The NCAA Committee on Infractions, commits infractions.

Talk about a bunch of loose cannons.  If you have the time, I strongly suggest you read Joe Nocera's summation of the laundry list of fishy actions that the NCAA's Committee on Infractions has engaged, including some possibly illegal (as in, criminal) acts.

The latest revelation came last week from NCAA president Mark Emmert's admission that grievous errors were made in their investigation of Miami, specifically, how it went about collecting information.

In December of 2011, I said that the NCAA's Enforcement Experience for the media was a dog and pony show.  I reiterate my criticism of those media folks who were gullible enough to fall for the PR BS.  Now, it seems, they're starting to come around.

Just watch what happens when the McNair case goes to trial and / or the evidence is made public.  Then again, I'm guessing the NCAA will try to settle with Todd McNair, once they lose the appeal to keep the evidence under wraps; here's hoping that he doesn't settle, so that we can break open the COI's egregious lies.

Ryan self-contradicts on Meet the Press.

I had to write this down.  Paul Ryan contradicted himself thrice on Meet the Press this morning.

First, he said that we have a debt crisis, then he later said that he was trying to avoid a debt crisis.  He then followed up by saying that Republicans were trying to avoid austerity spending cuts -- note that he proposed to cut the deficit in 10 years, which is even shorter than any previous budget that he submitted.  Finally, he insisted that Republicans were trying to avoid the sequester cuts, except of course, Republicans actually endorse the sequester cuts!

No wonder he's a politician.

Should we boycott Samsung for choosing to import Iranian oil?

I just wanted to point out, that even some of our own friends, are working to undermine the US and our attempts at stopping the proliferation of nuclear weapons.  Today, Reuters reported that Samsung-Total, a partnership of France's Total and South Korea's Samsung, announced they would renew a purchase agreement for Iranian oil (which had been previously dropped, following the US and EU sanctions).

Now, I understand nothing exists in black and white in this world, but one would think that, with Iran's weapons slowly gaining ground in reachable distance, it won't be too long before Iranian warheads are capable of reaching Paris.  And, more critically, North Korea has been helping Iran build and test nuclear weapons.  If there were any two nations in the world that should be wary of nuclear weapon proliferation, Israel and South Korea come to mind.

So, should we boycott Samsung for choosing to import Iranian oil?  Or maybe we should weaken sanctions on North Korea, and let SK and NK figure it out on their own?

CBS This Morning: Migraines can be triggered by storms.

I'm watching CBS This Morning in the background, and I am amused.  They're talking about migraine triggers, and one of them is barometric pressure change.

I can't believe it took this long for some people to figure that out!

Several years ago, I noticed that, in the office there was a group of us who would get headaches when there were significant weather changes (rainy to sunny and sunny to rainy, etc).  If a storm came with strong winds, I could guarantee a severe headache.  That doesn't mean that barometric pressure is the only trigger; obviously there are quite a few others.  But for people who get migraines, fast barometric changes does typically trigger headaches if not migraines, from my observations.

GTV: Grand Theft Votes.

Republicans, it seems, are sore losers.  Their latest attempts to rig the electoral college tally in various states, would give the loser of the popular vote, the majority of electoral college votes.

I call that Grand Theft Votes, or GTV.

Perhaps it's time we made the federal sentence for voter disenfranchisement, the death penalty?

Microsoft's Windows 8 flop.

Via CNN, the quarterly results for each of the last three OS releases, should provide some shock value:

Windows Vista = +65%
Windows 7 = +76%
Windows 8 = +24%

Once I saw the tile interface, I knew Windows 8 wasn't for me.  The question is, do I move to Linux with WINE, or wait for Windows 9?  Sorry, but OSX is out of the question -- I don't have the desire to be controlled by a corporation looking to extract the highest profit margins in the industry.

Thoughts on Nokia's Q4-2012

Nokia's smart devices (smart phones) have reached a paradigm shift, where Symbian sales are now the minority position, and Windows Phone sales are the majority.  This has resulted in a 20% jump in revenue per handset.  Along with lower costs (all those layoffs and the one-time charges), their Devices and Services division's profit has soared.  Correspondingly, Nokia's total profit has jumped as well.  That's the good news.

But -- and you know there was a but coming -- total smart phone sales only increased by 300,000 units (4.8%).  Also, you can now see, that the early pre-announcement of Windows Phone 8, by Steve Ballmer, did hurt sales of Windows Phone 7 devices significantly, for Nokia, and probably all other WP manufacturers.  The quarter before Microsoft's announcement of WP8, Nokia sold 4M Lumia handsets.  The quarter of the announcement, Nokia sold just 2.9M Lumia handsets.  With the latest quarter results, Nokia's sales rebounded with 4.4M Lumia handsets.

Even with this huge increase in Lumia sales, it does not mean that Nokia's future has improved.  Nokia's own quarterly report stated that Q1-2013 could be anywhere between 2% increase or 6% decrease in non-IFRS operating margin -- this is clearly reflected in each of the previous two first quarters (2011 and 2012).  Put slightly different, and Q4 has been an anomaly (Christmas bump), in the generally downward spiral.

So even with great pronouncements of a turnaround, I would be disinclined to believe that there is any proof of such, at least until Q2.

Rand Paul is a *#$@!*&?!%! hypocrite and a liar.

While attacking Hillary Clinton in reference to the Benghazi attack where four Americans were killed and three additional were injured, he called it, "the worst tragedy since 9/11."

What a *#$@!*&?!%! hypocrite and liar!

Any decent human being could list off at least a half-dozen worse tragedies since 9/11.  Here's a small list from the last few years:

• Sandy Hook Elementary School 27 dead, 2 injured
• Movie theater shooting in Aurora, Colorado 12 dead, 58 injured
• Seattle cafe shooter 5 dead, 1 injured
• Wisconsin Sikh Temple shooting 6 dead, 4 injured
• Tuscon shooting targeting Rep. Giffords 6 dead, 14 injured
• Seal Beach California salon shooting 8 dead, 1 injured
• Fort Hood shooting 13 dead, 30 injured

Do you want to know why this *#$@!*&?!%! won't talk about these worse tragedies?  Because they all involved guns that were legally purchased in the US.

*#$@!*&?!%! Rand Paul.

Work.

A lot of people seem to think that design should be easy and fast.  Neither is true.

Design is a deliberative process that requires many steps to model, review, and alter.  Some designs are purely accidental discoveries, and others are the result of purely intentional actions, but I think most are a blend of the two.  But you don't come out with any accidental discoveries if you don't take the time to work through the design.  Any of these processes take time, but the end result is not the completion of the "ideation" portion; you still have to present the idea properly.

The presentation of a design is nearly as important as the product itself.  A poorly presented idea risks losing eyeballs.  Once you've lost eyeballs, you've lost the ability to convey your intended message, either to a general audience or to a specific client.  This often results in the rejection of an idea, irrespective of its merits.

I sometimes get asked, "Which design option do you prefer?"  To which, I always respond, "It doesn't matter, because I never present any idea that I am not highly enthusiastic over."  You'd be surprised at how often I've seen other designers present ideas that they're not excited about.  Why do they do this?  Because they think that this is what the client wanted, as opposed to what you're trying to guide the client towards.

Just sharing my 10 minutes of thought this morning, as I tackle a deadline for a retail design project.

One last zing before I let this go.

I call this: "What came after the pink slip."

The new Republican plan: a continuing resolution for the debt ceiling?

What just happened?

According to WaPo, the new Republican plan to deal with the debt ceiling, is to delay action on it until May 18, but allow the Treasury to extend borrowing above the debt ceiling.  On May 19, the debt ceiling would be automatically increased to match whatever borrowing the Treasury did up to that day.  If the Senate does not pass a budget by April 15, their salaries would be held in an escrow until the end of the 2-year congressional session.

One Republican, Representative Paul Labrador, said to WaPo, "The agenda is to get to balance in 10 years, to have a balanced budget."  That seems at odds with what their move actually means.

In this gambit, House Republicans are telling Americans that, if they do not agree with whatever the Senate comes up with (cuts to avoid having to increase the debt ceiling), they will not increase the debt ceiling, this Summer.  In other words, nothing has changed, and Republicans are forcing Democrats to either accept the debt ceiling or its equivalent of the Balanced Budget Amendment, while distancing themselves from having to assume responsibility for the debt ceiling and the BBA equivalence of an immediately balanced budget.

Same as it ever was, it seems, but let me break it down.

Separate issues

Let's say that the Senate goes ahead and passes a budget, but that budget has barely any current spending cuts in it.  Senators get their pay reinstated, but House Republicans will demand -- yet again -- to keep the debt ceiling in place, to force cuts that the Senate budget did not include.  This is the "I called your bluff" move that Harry Reid could pull on Republicans.

The Senate

More on that "I called your bluff" move: I think Republicans must be poor chess players.  On the surface, sure, it seems like a smart move to force Harry Reid to write a budget and get it passed in the Senate, but that's just the first move.  In chess, you're supposed to visualize the end game, and predict the possible scenarios where your attempts fail.

Reid has the caucus of 55 senators -- more than enough to get a deal passed -- and all he needs to do is to finagle a patchwork budget that appeals to those 55.

At that point, Republican senators will have to filibuster to block the passing of the torch back to the ideologically divergent and disparate House.  Given the history of obstructionism of Mitch McConnell, it's assured that they will continue to do so; a tiger cannot change its stripes.  With or without the filibusters, Republicans will find the blame squarely in their laps, you see, because as was the case with the fiscal cliff deal, the House defaults to a majority of Democrats agreeing to any compromise deal, and not the other way around.

Once that new senate budget is in the hands of House Republicans, they will squawk about how it does not include the depth of cuts they demanded, and settle back to obstructing Congressional movement.  And you wonder why Reid has relied on continuing resolutions to keep government funded?

Nothing ever goes as planned...but nothing's changed

In between now and then, some people will figure this stuff out, and minds will change, which will alter the eventual outcome of this entire scenario.  But I think it's safe to say, Republicans will lose on this issue.  They, after all, haven't run away from the BBA and the needs for immediate cuts.

In fact, if you look at the past Paul Ryan budgets that the House passed (and the Senate punted on), their budgets did not balance until long past a decade into the future.  Now, Boehner has announced that they want to essentially speed up Paul Ryan's cuts.

And according to The Hill, conservatives insist on using the sequester cuts as leverage to force........cuts.

---

Update: There's no filibuster on senate budget resolutions, but it's a bit more complicated than that, per The Economist.

2013 Presidential Inauguration.

The crowd is smaller, but not that much smaller.  In 2009, the crowds overflowed to the edge of the Washington Monument, but this year it's blocked off at 12th (one section of the mall) short of the Monument, just past the Smithsonian Museum.

And it'll still be larger than we've seen in decades.

2009 was a monumental point in American history, but 2013 was sweet enough.

Two of the best lines of his inaugural address:

"For if we are truly created equal, then surely the love we commit to one another must be equal as well."

and

"Being true to our founding documents does not require us to agree on every contour of life. It does not mean we all define liberty in exactly the same way or follow the same precise path to happiness.  Progress does not compel us to settle centuries-long debates about the role of government for all time, but it does require us to act in our time."

The emphasis today: move forward, even if imperfect, while showing respect to all Americans.

Do crabs and lobsters feel pain? Of course they do!

I can't believe this issue is actually in question.  Let me tell you about the first time I ever had fresh lobster at home.

I was in middle school, and my sister brought home some fresh lobsters from Boston.  Back then, the global economy was limited at best, and it was rather difficult and expensive to get lobsters, from Boston or anywhere else.  She brought back a box of live lobsters with their claws rubber-banded.  My father pulled out a giant pot, filled it with water and turned the stove on.  In about 10 minutes the put was boiling like crazy, and we started to put the lobsters in.

So far so good.  Then comes the traumatic part.

As we were putting the lobsters into the boiling water, you could see that they didn't die right away.  For maybe five or ten seconds, they were still moving around, and you could see them speed up their movements, trying to get out of the pot -- I think this is the real reason why you cover the pots when boiling crabs or lobsters.  Now, I don't know what exactly happened, but then I heard the weirdest sound come from the pot, to which, this day I attribute it to the sound of the lobster's last gasp before death.

Same thing goes for crabs.  You put them into hot water and put the lid on, but you can actually hear them clawing to get out for a moment.

All animals feel pain.  This isn't anthropomorphism; this is a basic biological fact that you come to realize, after interacting with enough animals.

Speaking of animal screaming, once when I was in elementary school, I caught a gecko with my hand.  Apparently I might have squeezed him a little too hard and he let out scream, no kidding.  It freaked me out and I let him go immediately.

Don't needlessly kill animals, and most of all, don't torture them.

Well no wonder they went out of business.

If you're going to buy a former mortuary, renovate it and re-purpose it, I strongly suggest not using dark or muted colors, stay away from red velvet, and most of all, don't create -- forgive me for saying this -- dead-end halls.  No one wants to be in the room down the end of a dead-end hall, in a former mortuary, no matter how good the spa is.

So it's no wonder, this spa went out of business in less than five years, and the building failed to sell (first listed in February 2010) at lower than the original price (in 2006), finally ending up with the bank one year ago and now listed for lease.

I point this out, not to denigrate the property, but to demonstrate that some properties require design expertise beyond your run of the mill designer, and that in some cases, some types of building use, are not appropriate.

I get the heebee jeebies just looking at the pictures! :P

NOT APPROPRIATE: Spa
APPROPRIATE: Mortuary-themed bar

Gah!  Do morticians drain bodies here?

We use these gates to lock you in!

Blood-stained red flooring and creepy slime walls?

Visitors go in, but they don't come out!

Pointless Netflix saved disc queue.

I used to have a Netflix saved disc queue about 100 discs long, back when my regular disc queue was at about 300 discs.  After a couple of years, I came to realize that even though Netflix allows you to save them to your queue, they have almost no intention of actually getting those discs, except of course, the Hollywood blockbusters which are in the queues of hundreds of thousands of people.

Frustratingly, I encountered several instances where a single disc out of a multi-disc collection was bad, but Netflix never ordered a new disc.  The available discs kept moving up, but the one missing disc was never made available, so I ended up dropping entire shows from my queue, just before they moved to the top.

Why bother even listing shows / movies that you'll never make available?

As soon as my regular queue gets down to about 20 discs, I'm moving over to the 1 disc at a time plan -- I think that'll occur some time in April -- and explore the possibility of getting Hulu+.

My take on the Te'o Affair (and the continued Notre Shame)

What an amazing 36 hours it's been, since Deadspin broke the news about Te'o's fake girlfriend, pointing the finger to a cousin in Carson, CA.  The bizarre story has apparently captured the attention of most people and the news, mostly I think, because such an elaborate hoax was nearly successfully perpetuated, had it not been for a single tip to Deadspin, that led to this unraveling.  Well that, and because Te'o was a runner up to the Heisman, and became a media darling.

Let me break down the sequence of news events and some of the sideshows:

• Deadspin reports that Te'o's girlfriend was fake, and at a minimum, he lied about some of the interactions he had with his girlfriend (they never met);
• Notre Dame comes out with a hastily prepared media conference to outline that they had learned about this, weeks ago, and had hired an independent investigator, saying that Te'o was a victim of catfishing;
• USA Today's sports writer Christine Brennan notes that ND athletic director shed more tears over a hoax, than he did for a real woman who committed suicide when no one believed her story that a ND player raped her;
• A former Arizona Cardinals running back, Reagan Maui'a, states unequivocally that he met this fake woman; 
• TMZ says that ND has told all staff to keep their mouths shut, or else they will be fired;
• TMZ then follows up with a look at the person Deadspin pointed the finger at: Ronaiah Tuiasosopo;
• A timeline appears from the awfulannouncing blog, and shows that Te'o had been perpetuating this hoax (lying to the media) long after he supposedly discovered that this was a hoax;
• SI's Pete Thamel releases his entire notes from his interview with Te'o, over his girlfriend's death;
• Jackie Peppers reports that an anonymous source inside of ND football, revealed that many players felt that Te'o had been vastly exaggerating his relationship and that he had actually had on-campus relationships with other women all this time;
• Finally, Deadspin covers the numerous errors / discrepancies reported in the media, over the years.

What happened and what was the motive?  I have read many explanations, but none seemed very plausible, including the narrative being offered by Notre Dame and Te'o.  I can visualize two possible scenarios, and in both cases, Te'o's actions were for personal gain (vanity or glory).

First scenario: Te'o really didn't know this was a hoax, but seized upon the relationship and embellished and perpetuated it (long after he realized it was a hoax) so that he could turn into an epic Notre Dame sports hero.  Because Ronaiah's father was himself a USC football player as well as one cousin (Fred Matua, RIP), and as a response to Te'o picking ND over USC at the last second, Ronaiah misguidedly played a prank on a family friend (Te'o) that got out of control, so he killed the characters off.  Embarrassed that he had fallen for a hoax, Te'o tried to remain quiet and hoped to let the story die, but it wouldn't, so he eventually came out to Notre Dame officials.

Second scenario: Te'o realized that he was turning into a huge Notre Dame star and a potential Heisman candidate, and hatched up the legend of Lennay with his family friend (Ronaiah). The plan was to show Te'o as a heroic football player who pushed through personal adversity.  When trouble bubbled up with a confrontation with a third party over the lies Te'o has been involved with, Te'o came out to Notre Dame with another hoax -- that he was a victim of a hoax.

Much of the media has simply accepted Notre Dame's and Te'o's story that he was a victim of an elaborate hoax.  Not many are talking about how, regardless of which story is true, that Te'o lied to the media before and after the hoax was revealed to ND officials.  Complicit to the hoax, neither ND nor Te'o quashed the proliferation of these stories, once they understood that a hoax had been perpetrated.  Instead, they chose to remain silent.

So what's the bottom line?  Notre Dame's attempts to manufacture a legendary player from a legendary season has fallen short on both fronts.  They were embarrassed by their performance in the BCS NC game, and they were embarrassed by the hoax that their star player was involved in.  He's still a really good player, but clearly everything about him and the story about his legend has been greatly exaggerated.

Window breaker in the Pearl District.

What a crazy early morning.  Being the occasional night owl that I am, I was taking my dog out to use the bathroom when I saw some guy in dark clothing and a hoodie covering his head, a backpack and a 4 foot long object.  As he walked down the block, he stared straight, never looking around -- he didn't see me staring at him while he was walking, just 200 feet away.

Instinctually, it felt like this picture was all wrong, so I walked towards him, and as I was about to reach around the block, I heard the sound of breaking glass.  Rushing to the corner I saw that he was whacking the windows at Jim Stevens, and I turned around and called 911 immediately.  Even though I had a 911 shortcut on my home screen, it still took me some time to get the darn thing.

 -- An aside.  911 shouldn't require you to wait for their recorded message to play through, before you can say, "911" in order to get through with an emergency.  I'm having a heart attack, and you want me to wait 5 seconds to get through the recording?  That's just wrong. --

Unbeknownst to me at the time, someone had already called 911 and the police were en route to the scene.  I saw a police car with its lights flashing (no sirens) as it turned the corner, three blocks down, and I told the operator that I could see a patrol car, as I started gesticulating my arms directing the officer in the right direction.

I lazily turned around, thinking there's no reason to rush around the corner, just in case there's a gun fight (hey, you don't know what people are carrying these days, now that half of America seems to have gone off the deep end and bought millions of new guns in the last two months).  I could see off in the distance (about 250 feet away) that they had surrounded him in front of the Low Brow.  It didn't seem like he was cooperating, as they had guns drawn on him for what seemed like a minute or two.

They zapped him.  It turned out those were tazers, and, in my opinion, they showed a lot of restraint (kudos to Portland Police) that I wouldn't have had, if this guy had broken into my place or vehicle.  Most people who have had their vehicles or places broken into, know exactly what I mean.

So anyway, having walked the dog many times in the wee hours of the morning, I've learned some things:

• Most incidents occur between 1:30 and 3:30 am, when it isn't raining;
• They've ranged between vandalism, breaking and entering, theft, drunk drivers, and disorderly conduct by drunk people;
• There might be bicycle patrols (for different buildings) and the one guy who rides the Segway going from door to door, but I've never seen them around when I run into crime in the Pearl; they're almost always a half dozen blocks away from anything that might be trouble, and they're usually just looking out for the buildings they're responsible for;
• Those building security cameras are fairly useless, because they have terrible resolution and frame rate, and in the case of my building, a long time ago someone broke it, and the perp's image was not captured.

If I were in charge of coming up with ideas to stop crime in the Pearl, this is what I'd suggest:

• Concentrate patrols between the times bars close and when the first people start showing up at 24 Hour Fitness (like I said, most crime I've seen happened between 1:30 am and 3:30 am);
• Pay people to report crimes; I find it hard to believe that there can be so much crime in the Pearl when I see delivery trucks, taxis, the newspaper delivery cars, the street sweepers and the flower basket watering trucks at all hours of the night and early morning;
• Replace the sodium-vapor orange streetlights with white LEDs, and replace the fixtures so that the lights are pointed downwards instead of out and up, in order to make the streets brighter at the street level while giving eyewitnesses (and security cameras) the ability to accurately see colors of the clothing, skin and vehicles of perps.

AutoCAD LT + Revit LT = save

It's been out for a few months now.  Autodesk has a software suite called the Autocad Revit LT Suite (2013), which combines AutoCAD LT and Revit LT.  Now, obviously if you're using AutoCAD LT, you don't really need Revit LT, but the way I see it, this is a cheaper way of getting your feet wet in the BIM Revit ecosystem.  It also alleviates the other problem of some manufacturers producing just Revit drawings, and not SketchUp / CAD drawings.

The reason why I'm bringing this up, is because Dell has it for $1199.99, which, regardless of any rebates or promotions, is the lowest price anywhere, any time.  Normal price is $1495.

That's good enough to me, to get my feet wet - again - into BIM, even though I'm not sold on the implementation of Revit's BIM.

Below is Autodesk's comparison between Revit and Revit LT.

Category	Feature Name	Revit LT 2013	Revit 2013
Architectural Modeling in 3D	Architectural Wall, Curtain Wall, Floor, Roof, Ceiling, and Column	✔	✔
	Design Options		✔
	Loadable Component	✔	✔
	Room and Area	✔	✔
	Site Design	✔	✔
	Stair by Component, Ramp, and Railing	✔	✔
	Construction Modeling—Parts and Assemblies		✔
	Stair by Sketch		✔
Structural Modeling	Structural Walls, Floor Slab, and Foundation	✔	✔
	Structural Columns, Beams and Braces	✔	✔
	Truss and Reinforcement		✔
Advanced 3D Modeling	Create Groups for Repeating Elements	✔	✔
	Family Editor Environment	✔	✔
	Conceptual Massing, Adaptive Components		✔
	In-Place Modeling		✔
Presentation and Visualization	Orthographic and Perspective Views, Walk-throughs	✔	✔
	Photorealistic Architectural Rendering in the Cloud* (Autodesk® 360 Rendering)	✔	✔
	Photorealistic Architectural Rendering Materials	✔	✔
	Photorealistic Architectural Rendering Within the Product		✔
	Ray Trace (In-Canvas Rendering), Realistic View Styles		✔
Documentation	2D Detail Lines, 2D Detail Components	✔	✔
	Revision Tracking	✔	✔
	Dimensioning, Tagging, and Annotation	✔	✔
	Phasing	✔	✔
	Schedules, Material Takeoff	✔	✔
Collaboration	Interference Check, Copy/Monitor		✔
	Worksharing (Multiuser Environment)		✔
Linking Other Revit Files	Link Files from Other Revit Products	✔	✔
	Tag and Schedule Elements in Link Files	✔	✔
	Copy/Paste Elements from Links		✔
	Customize the Visibility of Linked Models		✔
Links/Imports	DWG™, DXF™ File Format	✔	✔
	DGN, SketchUp®, DWF™ Markup, Image		✔
	Point Cloud, Decal		✔
Exports	DWG, DXF, DGN, DWF, DWFx	✔	✔
	Images and Animations, FBX®, NWC	✔	✔
	Room/Area Reports, Schedules	✔	✔
	Solar Studies**	✔	✔
	SAT, ADSK, gbXML, IFC, ODBC, Family Types		✔
Analyze	Autodesk® 360 Energy Analysis for Autodesk Revit*		✔
API	Third-Party API (Application Programming Interface)		✔

*Available to Subscription customers of Autodesk® Revit LT™, Autodesk® Revit®, Autodesk® Revit® Architecture, Autodesk® Revit® MEP, and Autodesk® Revit® Structure software during the term of their Subscription.
**Only still images are available for solar study export.

Beijing is dirty.

Beijing's air is so dirty, it has now exceeded their own indices.  You know how the US Homeland Security has the five level alert system, ranging in color from green to blue to yellow to orange to red?  Beijing's air is equivalent to black on the alert system...figuratively and literally.

The Chinese government decided to blame Mother Nature for the pollution, saying that it was a case of stagnant air.

So you know that problem of too much mercury in fish?  Guess where that's coming from!  If the air in Beijing is tolerable (because of the wind), the rest of us are paying the price.

via The Guardian UK

via NYT

via InHabitat

via FT

via APM's Marketplace

via DW / Reuters

via Slate

---

Update: You've heard of the Fog of War; is this the second coming of the Fog of Death?

Java update available.

Oracle popped out Java 7.11.  Now, Java will pop up a window to verify that, when a page calls for Java, you actually want it to run -- sort of like how I treat pop-up windows, javascript and Flash.

You should probably uninstall older versions of Java first, before installing this new one.

Seattle's defense too deep to win.

This is why I hate the prevent-win defense.  Atlanta didn't need 31 seconds; they just needed 18 seconds to go 41 yards, call a time out and kick a field goal.  You'd think that they would have learned their lesson the first time around, but apparently not.

It was the first weekend in December, and Seattle was in Chicago.  With Seattle scoring a touchdown, they had the game in the bag with just 24 seconds left.  They went into prevent defense, and Chicago came back 58 yards in 21 seconds, called a time out and kicked a field goal.

In both cases, Seattle went into prevent-win defense, and more notably, both times they were successful in giving up over 40 yards and a field goal in about 20 seconds.

Talk about snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.

My metric for how cold it is.

It has gotten quite a bit cooler these past few days, but it's not that cold.  Oh sure, we have freezing fog and right now it's at about 30° F (-1° C), and some small ponds have a layer of thin ice over it.

But my metric is whether or not I can stand to wear shorts.  One Winter, it was 18° F (-8° C) in the sun and the wind was blowing to make it feel like 12° F (-11° C)  -- that was my limit.

We haven't had a Winter like that in a very long time; over a decade I think.

Local FOX affiliate's way around copyrights.

You'd think a FOX affiliate station would be able to secure copyright permission to directly use footage from Star Wars, in its story about the petition sent to the White House to build a Death Star.  Apparently not.  They showed clips of Star Wars they grabbed from YouTube and instead of crediting the content owner (20th Century Fox / Lucasfilms), they credited YouTube.

I think they just slapped themselves in the face, no?

1-12-2013 Things missed this past week.

A list of this week's news and events that I had been following but hadn't written about:

• It was reported that Adobe's CS2 was available to download for free; Adobe said it really wasn't; but now, Adobe doesn't seem to mind it, if people download it for free -- think of it as training tools for people who will want to subscribe to their Creative Cloud.
• RE: The debt ceiling.  The Treasury should mint platinum coins.  The Treasury can't mint platinum coins.  Yes it can.  No it can't.  Yes it can.  Maybe we shouldn't.  We don't have an opinion.  No, we won't.  No links, because let's be honest here, this discussion isn't over by a long shot.  I'd previously written about it, and nothing has changed -- Congress has not yet taken any votes to raise the debt ceiling, or figure out what it's going to do.  Likewise, I don't think the platinum coin is a good idea anyway, because it shirks the meaningful assignment of blame for bringing us to this regularly scheduled debt ceiling crisis.
• A Java exploit is so bad, it will allow rogue (unknown to you which ones are and aren't) websites to surreptitiously install malware and control your computer.  So severe is this exploit, that Mozilla has updated Firefox to require "Click to Play", to stop automatic Java operation, while Apple has blocked the Java plugin.  In any case, and regardless of which browser you use, you might want to disable the Java plugin (instructions are here).  If you're using Chrome, type, "about:plugins" into the address bar, and scroll down to the Java plugin and select the "disable" button.
• Flu.  Achoo!  Flu?!?  Panic, panic, panic!!!  Fox News asks, "Why are so many not getting vaccinated?"  WaPo's Wonkblog asks, "Why 64.8 percent of Americans didn’t get a flu shot?"  Oh, I don't know...maybe it's because, as the CDC notes, there are just 128M doses available this season, while there are 311.6M Americans?  In other words, only 41% of Americans would have been able to receive a vaccine this year.
• CES 2013 was all about big, curved glass screens, flexible OLED smartphone screens and 3D printers, but I cannot help to feel that there was little enthusiasm this year.  I believe Google I|O, Apple's WWDC and Mobile World Congress have displaced CES as the most exciting events in tech, for the time being.  Either that, or 2013 will be a dull year.
• Nate Silver predicts the 2013 Super Bowl matchup: New England vs. Seattle.  I'd written previously, Seattle is peaking at the right time to make a run in the playoffs, and look very close to unstoppable.  They came from behind to beat Washington on the road, and now look to beat the Falcons in Atlanta.

The Nokia spin that the media echoed.

Today, Nokia announced some preliminary Q4-2012 data, and in its press release and touted how it had increased Lumia sales (followed by a fawning press and a huge jump in stock price).  I'm going to just offer some hints at a future post about Nokia's Q4-2012 earnings:

• Total smart phone sales is only up 300,000 units over the previous quarter.
• The sales boost was something we've seen in the preceding two fourth quarters...followed by a resumption of a sales drop.
• I think Nokia designated the Asha line as smart phones (as opposed to feature phones), to hide the low profitability of the Lumia phones.

2012 -- warmest year on record.

Over 100 years, and 2012 was the warmest ever, by a wide margin, in context of climate.

This past Summer was very cool in Portland, but this Fall and Winter has been extremely warm.  For example, it's the second week of January, but some trees still have their leaves.

Snow days are becoming rarities in Portland.

Water cress.

Just for kicks I thought I'd see how easily it would be to grow water cress from a bunch that I had purchased and cut the tops off, for cooking.

One week later and this is what I got from keeping it in water and under a CFL table lamp.

Notre Shame.

Notre Shame
noun
The state of being, after losing to a team that shouldn't have won, and doesn't belong in the BCS NC game.

ex: The Trojans had more and better talent, but they ended the season shrouded in Notre Shame.

Rookie quarterbacks: And then there was ONE.

There were three rookie quarterbacks heading into the NFL playoffs this weekend.  Each broke or tied at least one rookie record, and the fact that there were three rookie QBs in the playoffs, was itself a record.

Only one rookie made it past the first weekend: Russell Wilson.

Wilson is faster than you think.

It's a team sport, but if you've watched the Seahawks play, then you know that their success was dependent upon the arms and legs of rookie quarterback, Russell Wilson.  So it was, against the Redskins, that the go-ahead touchdown run by Beast Mode Marshawn Lynch, came with the help of a down field block by Russell Wilson.  That blur you saw, was Wilson getting ahead of Lynch to deliver that block.

That might have been the hallmark of a player deserving of the NFL Rookie of the Year award, I think.

Republicans: Chuck Hagel isn't pro-Israel enough.

I had to laugh when I watched Republican Senator Ted Cruz complain that former Republican Senator Chuck Hagel wasn't pro-Israel enough to lead the Department of Defense.

I didn't realize we lived in the United States of Israel.

--or--

I went to sleep Christian, but woke up Jewish...oy vey!

--or--

I wanted to live, but those darn Evangelicals just want the End of Days to come...

Redskins, Seahawks and USC Trojans.

Yesterday it was USC Trojans in the Green Bay - Minnesota game, tonight it's the USC Trojans in the Washington - Seattle game.

Seattle:

• Malcolm Smith
• Anthony McCoy
• Michael Morgan
• Allen Bradford (was on the practice squad, but was signed to the 53 man roster before the playoffs)

Washington:

• Fred Davis (injured / reserve)

Okay, so it's not like it was yesterday with Trojan on Trojan, but it sure is fun to watch Malcolm Smith flying around on the field.

The absolute final results of the 2012 Presidential Election.

The 2012 Presidential Election results have all been certified, and the electoral college (last week) voted.

As noted previously, Obama won the electoral college count, 332 - 206.  What you might not have heard, is that President Obama was the first President to earn over 51% of the vote, twice.  In the end, President Obama won, 51.1%  - 47.2%.

There is a reason why I'm smiling right now.

That same August 2nd prediction where I wrote down that President Obama would win reelection with a 328 - 210 electoral vote advantage, I also said that he'd win 51.5% - 46.5%.  That's 96 days in advance!  :D

So if you're keeping track, that means I was within 1.1 percentage point of the final outcome's difference (3.9 percentage points), months in advance.

Sam Wang's prediction, based on a two-candidate election (no third party numbers), was 51.1% - 48.9%, which was 1.7 percentage points off the final tally.

Nate Silver's prediction was 50.9% - 48.3%, or 1.3 percentage points off the final tally.

Now, I'm not saying that I was more accurate than the quants, because after all, my prediction, at 96 days before the election, was equally educated guess and pure luck.  But that they were remarkably similar, should be informative: Conservatives and the media were practically clueless to what was actually going on, all year long.  Rather than objectively looking at polls, they'd cherry pick the numbers that supported their own stories, while tossing the rest, or worse, adjusting the ones they didn't agree with.

Why keep bringing up Social Security in discussions over debt?

I was watching Meet the Press this morning, and Carly Fiorina brought up the need to modify Social Security, while talking about the debt.  Is she naive, stupid, or politically motivated to lie, and lie repeatedly?

When Social Security was last modified in 1983, it was directly a result of the Greenspan Commission, and they tackled just one issue: Social Security.  Imagine if the Greenspan Commission were to have tackled Social Security funding by citing the importance of reducing defense spending -- nonsense, right?

As I've often written, Social Security is funded by the FICA payroll / SE taxes that you and I pay.  There is no borrowing in Social Security.  The fund is invested into special (nonmarketable) US bonds.  If you modify Social Security, it does not affect the deficit and debt of the United States.

This leads to the next perplexing issue.

Remarkably, you can hear and read Republican politicians (as well as pundits and news outlets) in the same discussion over Social Security, complain that taxes were raised when the fiscal cliff deal did not include the renewal of the FICA payroll / SE tax holiday.  Again, are they naive, stupid, or politically motivated to lie?

"A temporary reduction in the Social Security payroll tax rate reduced payroll tax revenues by $103 billion in 2011 and by a projected $112 billion in 2012." - 2012 SS Trustee Report Summary

Talk about trying to kill Social Security, or is that the quiet Republican goal?

Vikings, Packers and USC Trojans.

How awesome is it, to watch USC Trojan playing against USC Trojan?  If not for a season-ending injury to Nick Perry, tonight's wildcard game in Green Bay could have featured five USC Trojans.

Minnesota:

• Matt Kalil
• Rhett Ellison
• Everson Griffin

Green Bay:

• Clay Matthews III
• Nick Perry -- injured reserve

That's four linemen: three on defense and one heck of a left tackle on offense, if you're keeping count.  Oh, and Kalil's done a fairly solid job against Matthews.

The WSJ is unbelievably stupid (and irresponsible).

WSJ, giving House Republicans advice on how to deal with the debt ceiling: "You can't take a hostage you aren't prepared to shoot."

I can't believe they actually used a violent metaphor in the aftermath of the Sandy Hook shootings.  Moreover, they got their metaphor wrong and they've explicitly accepted their own kind as the lunatic in the scenario.

The WSJ is advocating the idea that Republicans should be prepared to let the debt ceiling stay in place and shut down government.  But it's a miscalculation, you see.  As I've demonstrated before, Republicans actually believe in keeping the debt ceiling in place -- it's why they keep voting at the start of every new session of Congress to pass a Balanced Budget Amendment.

The WSJ must be stuck in the same echo chamber they were caught up in, last year during the elections.

In this case, the terrorist isn't trying to use the hostage as leverage -- well at least 96% of his brain is telling the terrorist that this is not a hostage.  The terrorist is an unstable person who believes that he will be celebrated for killing the hostage, and vilified for letting the hostage go.  Just a small part of this terrorist's brain -- a measly 4% -- is telling him that he cannot kill the hostage.

Don't believe me?  In the run-up to the last debt ceiling confrontation, 229 House Republicans (96% of House Republicans) voted to pass the Cut, Cap and Balance Bill in 2011.  The  passage of the CCB Bill in the House was the leverage the House used, to get their sequestration cuts that were part of the fiscal cliff.

The House's response to the debt ceiling crisis in 2011, was to say, "It's up to you when we kill the hostage, but make no mistake, we intend to kill the hostage."

Here's the rub: The moment they kill the hostage, the terrorist himself is dead.  It's political suicide, to kill the hostage.

But if history repeats itself, look to Democrats to try to make concessions to stave off the hostage's death, by giving the terrorist more hostages.  To wit: Democrats accepted sequestration cuts, and we got the fiscal cliff; in the fiscal cliff deal, Democrats allowed the sequestration cuts to remain, but put it off for two months.

Guess what happens in two months?  Debt ceiling + sequestration cuts.

Hypocritical, selfish and tone-deaf: the politics of GOP opposition to Sandy Relief.

From within the GOP, I think the regret is palpable and rapidly growing, that they had embraced the Tea Party, and for good reason: TP Republicans are digging the party into a hole that it won't escape from.

Since the start of the new Congress, and despite the furor over the lack of a vote for money to aid states and Americans affected by Hurricane Sandy, House Republicans have tried to put politics ahead of helping the community; worse, some have been downright hypocritical.

Before the House could vote on providing FEMA (which became H.R. 41) with additional monies in its work on recovery from Hurricane Sandy (aside from the larger funding at the request by states affected), the House decided to take up a series of bills and resolutions that have nothing to do with Hurricane Sandy but everything to do with politics.  40 House Resolutions before they took up the business of helping out Sandy victims.  I give you an abridged version of their tone-deafness:

• H.R.23 - To provide that human life shall be deemed to begin with fertilization.
• H.R.24 - To require a full audit of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal reserve banks by the Comptroller General of the United States, and for other purposes.
• H.R.25 - To promote freedom, fairness, and economic opportunity by repealing the income tax and other taxes, abolishing the Internal Revenue Service, and enacting a national sales tax to be administered primarily by the States.
• H.R.27 - To amend title XVIII of the Social Security Act to repeal the Medicare competitive acquisition program for durable medical equipment and prosthetics, orthotics, and supplies (DMEPOS), and for other purposes.
• H.R.33 - To amend title 31, United States Code, to reform the manner in which the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System is audited by the Comptroller General of the United States and the manner in which such audits are reported, and for other purposes.
• H.R.37 - To repeal portions of the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act, to reduce Federal Government spending and to reduce the salaries of Members of Congress, and for other purposes.

Really, Republicans couldn't put the funding of Hurricane Sandy victims, as close as practical to first?

So one by one, Republicans are now starting to express their disgust with the House and Tea Party House Republicans, who have decided that federal funding to help victims of natural disasters, can be used as leverage against Democrats.

Note that not a single Democrat voted against additional funding for FEMA, to help victims of Hurricane Sandy; the 67 House members who voted against it, were all Republicans.  As former Republican Senator Alfonse D'Amato said, "They’re a bunch of jackasses."

In some cases, Republicans who had previously begged their fellow members to vote for additional funding for their states that had suffered from a natural disaster, chose to vote against helping out the victims of Hurricane Sandy.  That's both hypocritical and selfish, but politics come first, to many Republicans.

I sense a third party coming, and it'll become the party of the center.

Can the Treasury get around the debt ceiling on its own? Should it?

Platinum: It's all the rage this week, as very smart people and those with fancy degrees have taken up an obscure law, and whether or not it can be used to mint a $1T platinum coin to allow the Treasury to continue to pay out its obligations, presumably by allowing the Feds to buy it from Treasury, or to sell it, outright.

The whole $1T platinum coin goes back to last year -- the months before the previous debt ceiling hit -- as covered in the PragCap blog in July 2011.

The issue gained traction this week however, when everyone realized that the fiscal cliff was a trifle problem compared to the debt ceiling, and Paul Krugman more or less initiated the discussion, which was followed up by Joe Weisenthal, Matthew Yglesias, and Josh Barro.

Step in, Mother Jones' Kevin Drum who summons the rainstorm on their parade, by suggesting this idea wouldn't fly under a courtroom review.

The problem I see it is, the platinum coin is a pragmatic attempt to get around a dogmatic problem.  There is no debt issue for the US, except the one manufactured by those who wish for smaller government, and use the debt as a guise for their smaller government push.

There are also, just some really dumb politicians out there, however, and they actually believe that we have a debt problem.  If you ask them to point out the indications that we have a debt problem, they will either point to $16T and tell you that it is a very big number, or they will point to inflation on the horizon.  Since the big number when placed into proper context is not really that big, and inflation has been on the horizon for these doomsayers for the last four years, it's safe to say they haven't a whiff of a clue to what's really going on.  It's like exclaiming with sign in hand, "The end is near!"  Death comes to all of us; the end is always nearer than it was the day before.

But you see, I don't think we can get around dogma if we don't confront it head on and let people see why their dogmatic beliefs are wrong, and thus suffer a little for the benefit of laying to rest these zombie ideas.

As I've mentioned before, the debt ceiling is the equivalent of a Balanced Budget Amendment.  Let's have it tested out and put to bed before it comes up again, whenever it suits the situation of opposition politics...at least for a generation or two, that is.

---

Update: I thought I should demonstrate the depth of this support of a Balanced Budget Amendment. This is what the House did on the first day, related to the BBA and the debt ceiling:

• H.J.Res.1 - Proposing a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution of the United States.
• H.J.Res.2 - Proposing a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution of the United States.
• H.J.Res.4 - Proposing a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution of the United States.
• H.J.Res.5 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States relative to balancing the budget.
• H.J.Res.6 - Proposing a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution of the United States.
• H.J.Res.9 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States prohibiting the United States government from increasing its debt except for a specific purpose by law adopted by three-fourths of the membership of each House of Congress.
• H.J.Res.10 - Proposing an amendment to the Constitution of the United States requiring that the Federal budget be balanced and that an increase in the Federal debt requires approval from a majority of the legislatures of the several States.
• H.J.Res.11 - Proposing a balanced budget amendment to the Constitution of the United States.

And that was a full day before they voted on additional FEMA funding for Hurricane Sandy!

Do you know where your political party stands on its priorities?

---

Update 2: Don't even bother listening to the news media at large, as they really don't know much about the issue.  I was watching the local KPTV Fox affiliate broach the subject and it was terrible.  They bought hook line and sinker that the size of the federal debt is bad.

It was supposed to be the first First Thursday of 2013.

But I'm pretty sure most people were watching the Oregon Ducks playing whipping Kansas State in the Fiesta Bowl.  Right after the game, I ran out to drop something off at the post office, and it was empty in the Pearl -- no traffic, no crowds, the galleries apparently closed early.

Oh, and that was a good freaking awesome game, by the way.  Was that Chip Kelly's last game at Oregon???  Tomorrow's going to be filled with a few interviews, I read.

November 2012 comScore US Mobile OS: The iPhone5 bounce / buh bye to WP?

It doesn't show in comScore's November report, but Apple's increase was all in November, as September and October remained at 34.3% -- something worth noting in regards to the iPhone 5 introduction, as it is now quite clear that a lot of people had been holding off for several months for the iPhone 5.

Top Smartphone Platforms 3 Month Avg. Ending Nov. 2012 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Aug. 2012 Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Ages 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
	Aug-12	Nov-12
Total Smartphone Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%
Google	52.6%	53.7%
Apple	34.3%	35.0%
RIM	8.3%	7.3%
Microsoft	3.6%	3.0%

I want to explain something here about the November comScore US mobile OS numbers: After extrapolation of comScore's total mobile subscriber estimates, both RIM and Microsoft have dropped in customer numbers, not just percentage points; this despite a growing mobile market.

Since September 2010, the month before the launch of Microsoft's Windows Phone OS, Microsoft's total mobile customers has dropped from 5,811,300 to 3,699,000 -- that's a 2.1M  / 36.3% drop.

Why single out Microsoft?  Because they've spent probably several hundred million dollars or so in product placement and broadcast / online advertisements over the last two years, yet for all the money that they've spent, they've only marginally outperformed RIM (and RIM's been really bad).  Now remember, RIM's been stuck on BB7 for this entire time and has gone through the turmoil of the ouster of co-CEOs, and repeated delays of BB10, and has barely spent money advertising.

I cannot help but see this as a dire situation for Microsoft's mobile OS, because for one, BB10 will allow RIM's customers to run Android apps, but secondly, RIM once dominated the enterprise, which is the same area that Microsoft targeted, with its decision to tie-in Windows 8's UI with WP's live tiles.  We know that Windows 8 sales are languishing behind Vista, in terms of market buy-in after initial release, so there is no logical reason to expect either Windows 8 nor WP to suddenly witness an uptake in adoption.

I give slightly better odds that RIM will outperform Microsoft, once BB10 comes out; possibly even taking back some market share from Android, if they are able to license BB10 to other mobile players.

ADP National Employment Report: Dec 2012 was big.

ADP's December 2012 National Employment Report is out.  In it, November's employment was revised upwards from 118,000 to 148,000, which matches the initial BLS November number -- very good news.  More importantly, December showed a gain of +215,000 jobs.

That's over a 45% increase in jobs created from the previous month, which simply shatters any sort of notion that severe austerity is what the nation needs to grow faster.

What are the chances that tomorrow's BLS report shows a higher employment gain than ADP's and a concurrent drop in unemployment?  If it does happen to come in higher than ADP's numbers, it might point to an easier compromise between the two parties, as cuts would be more palatable (offset by solid job gains), even while we raise the debt ceiling.

There is still hope, eh?

Happy New Years, Part II.

It's not New Years without special food.  Here's three of them.  Not shown is my futomaki sushi.  I don't do oden or nishime.  I do ozoni for brunch, though.

(Bottom left) Namasu; (top left) Kuromame; (right) kimpira

Welcome to January 2013, say hello to global warming.

Okay, maybe it's premature -- apparently we're supposed to wait another 20 years before we know for sure what happened -- to call it global warming, but this has to be a sign of the direction of our climate in Portland Oregon.  It's January, and there are clusters of trees with leaves still on; about half of the leaves are still a shade of green, too!

By the way, we finally had our first freezing temperatures (of the season) in downtown Portland, this past weekend.  Some trees remain confused as to what season it is.

Happy New Years 2013!

A fresh start, and it was sunny outside!  I don't think we could have asked for a better start to the new year!

Oh yeah, and a bath.