comScore October 2012: Android is NOT going down.

Some reports earlier this week had indicated that Apple was gaining ground on Android in the US.  Today's comScore report shows this is not the case; in fact, Android grew, iOS stalled, and RIM and Windows Phone shrank.

Top Smartphone Platforms 3 Month Avg. Ending Oct. 2012 vs. 3 Month Avg. Ending Jul. 2012 Total U.S. Smartphone Subscribers Ages 13+ Source: comScore MobiLens
	Share (%) of Smartphone Subscribers
	Jul-12	Oct-12	Point Change
Total Smartphone Subscribers	100.0%	100.0%	N/A
Google	52.2%	53.6%	1.4
Apple	33.4%	34.3%	0.9
RIM	9.5%	7.8%	-1.7
Microsoft	3.6%	3.2%	-0.4

What's interesting is that Google's market share increased quite a lot -- sales from Jelly Bean OS? -- while Microsoft's declined significantly.  Microsoft's October 0.4 percentage point drop was the steepest since Dec. 2011's 0.5 pp drop.

If you break down the total number of smart phone users (121.3M), Microsoft's Windows Phone's real smart phone numbers shrank (-413.2K) from the previous month, even as total number of smart phone owners continued to increase (+2.0M).  If Microsoft lost actual users, this could be an early signal that its existing users were not satisfied with what Microsoft introduced when WP8 was unveiled.

Let's take this a step further.  If RIMM completely collapsed, and the US market were to become 100% saturated with smartphones, assuming that RIMM's market share and the remaining 48.1% were divvied up three ways equally and that there was little poaching from Android and iPhone, Microsoft would still have under 20% market share.

Going back over 2 years: comScore smart phone market share

This is where the decline in actual users becomes starkly important: When anyone from Microsoft starts trash-talking about Android or iPhone, they're talking out of their rear ends.  They've tried all sorts of gimmicks, and instead of gaining users, they're now at their smallest number of users, ever.

Maybe that's why Nokia is now exploring Linux, aka Android?  If Nokia abandons WP, Microsoft's future will indeed be bleak.

Climate changes and weather.

Earlier this week: some trees just now changing colors

Climate and weather are not the same; one is a science based on long-term observation and trends, while the other is your daily forecast.  Still, an interesting thing occurred this Fall that I thought I'd like to jot down.

Normally by Thanksgiving, the leaves in Portland are completely gone from deciduous trees, except sweet gums and oaks.  I've known this to be the case the entire 17 years I've been in Portland, because it always amused me to see Thanksgiving graphics on Thanksgiving NFL games, with Fall colored leaves, even as outside the leaves were all gone.

This Fall has been remarkably different.

Also this week: some trees still green

There are many elms, maples and other species with green leaves still on.  Some trees changed colors and shed on time, but others are just now getting into the act.

It's just shocking that so many trees are still green, and we're about to enter the first week of December!

But then again, at the moment that I'm writing this up, the temperature in downtown Portland is 60 degrees.  Instead of being weeks away from Winter, it feels more like we're in late September!

If I go outside right now, all of the pear trees are still green.

This is crazy.  Any given year, month or day does not signal climate change, but if this becomes a frequent trend, it most certainly can't be categorized as an anomaly.

Week 14 PAC-12 predictions.

Last week: 2 - 4
Overall: 56 - 33

I hate rivalry week, because it's the one week you're guaranteed to get upsets all over the place.

Tonight is the PAC-12 championship and Saturday is the rescheduled Oregon State - Nicholls State game, due to Hurricane Isaac.

First, we all know Oregon State is going to blow out Nicholls State; zero doubt whatsoever.  Might as well score beauty points the day before the final bowl invites are made.

Second, there is some intrigue behind the PAC-12 championship: If UCLA wins, could this mean that the Bruins purposely threw the game against Stanford last week?  Put it this way: If UCLA had won, they'd play Oregon instead; that would have been a taller task, in my opinion, and one that apparently TJ Simers of the LA Times also shares.  But critically, it also gave the Bruins an opportunity to test their game plan against Stanford, then fix it if needed; shut down what you've got if it's working, then bring it back with some tweaks in the following week.

If Stanford wins however, then UCLA just plain sucks and USC did a terrible disservice to the PAC-12 by losing to Mora's Bruins.  I'd love the latter to be true (that the Bruins really do suck), but I think the former might be reality, that they strategically lost, so that they'd guarantee a win in the championship game and an invite to the Rose Bowl in January.

Week 14
Visitor		Home
UCLA	24	Stanford	23
Nicholls State	9	Oregon State	63

By the way, if anyone had said in August that the PAC-12 championship would feature Stanford and UCLA, not Oregon and USC, they would have been laughed at.  All this goes to show, nothing in life is guaranteed -- you have to play every down of every game.  Congratulations to Stanford and UCLA.

Monte Kiffin resigns; who replaces him?

Last night, Monte announced his decision to resign and look for work in the NFL once again.  Works out well for him really, because Tampa-2 does not have to go up against spread offenses in the NFL.

So who replaces Monte as defensive coordinator?

Finding some big name to hire, especially if they're from the NFL, doesn't seem quite right, because they would have to know how to plan against spread offenses.  The two names currently floating around from the college ranks -- Randy Shannon and Gene Chizik -- seem like bad choices.  Of all the coaches you'd want to hire, why would you chase down two guys who were at the center of programs under multiple NCAA investigations?  You don't know if they're in the clear; they would bring unwanted scrutiny to USC and end up with show-cause orders from the NCAA.

The longer I think about it, the more I am convinced that Scottie Hazelton is the man.  Why else would a DC move -- from an FCS squad that won a championship with the #1 defense across the board, shutting down spread offenses similar to Oregon's -- up to a linebacker position coaching job at USC?  Even though he sometimes out-thinks himself, I wouldn't be surprised that Lane the Tactician deliberately chased down Hazelton in anticipation that one day Hazelton would replace Monte.

So what about Ed Orgeron?  Technically he was USC's DC by title, and on the field he was coordinating personnel and coaching them, but Monte was up in the booth play-calling.  Perhaps Orgeron moves up to assistant head coach, as a means to help him get back into a future head-coaching job?  I don't know if he's got what it takes to be the DC who calls the plays, but everyone should get a chance to prove themselves, at some point, so he might inherit the actual DC job.

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I thought I should add: If they do promote Scottie Hazelton, wouldn't it be nice if they hired Lofa Tatupu to coach linebackers?  With repeated injury issues, he's not going to be playing anymore, I suspect.

Some words about coffee, practically speaking.

Ikea Radig -- what I own

When you make a pot of coffee at a time as often as I do, inevitably you'll forget that you had it brewing (or fall asleep), and it turns cold.  Drip coffee always tastes bad even after reheating, no exceptions.  Honestly, it tastes exactly like instant coffee, after you reheat it.

What doesn't taste as bad, after reheating it, is french-pressed coffee.  Sure, you lose a lot of the aroma and flavor that a fresh brew has, but it isn't bitter and old like a wet cigarette.  Now obviously I've never tasted what a wet cigarette is, but that weird smell you get from a wet cigarette matches the taste that you get from reheated drip coffee or drip coffee that is old.

Starbucks' VIA instant coffee comes close to reheated french press coffee.  Though I haven't had any in a decade, Folgers and all the other instant coffees are bitter and taste like old coffee.

Commercial burr grinders are so good, that there is value to buying coffee that is freshly ground, as opposed to using a home grinder, even if you have a burr grinder at home.  But I suppose the reason why we love so much to grind our own beans at home, is that the aroma is something to treasure, each and every time you grind.

Ikea Anrik -- french press that I own

Speaking of burr grinders, they take a lot longer than blade grinders, but are supposed to grind more evenly. If you're not using a commercial burr grinder, this is still a challenge.  In some ways, it just makes us feel better about ourselves, that we're using the same kind of grinders that the pros use, I suppose.

I don't know why anyone drinks morning blends in the morning; they're lightly roasted, to the point that they're practically still green beans.  To me, this should be a late night drink, to let you down easy just before you go to sleep.  I try to stick with 100% dark roasts, aka French, Italian or Espresso roasts, regardless of the time of day.

Percolators make your place smell awesome when you're brewing coffee, but as far as the flavor, it doesn't seem to do much to it (I'd even argue that the perfect cup is actually low in flavor), though it takes the longest to brew.  Because of the way the percolation works, you're inevitably boiling coffee, and losing flavor.

My burr grinder

Pour-over coffee is a modern trend that I do not encourage for one reason only: I like my coffee hot, not lukewarm.  It brings out more flavor than drip machines, but all it is, is a longer brew cycle of that of drip.  And like I said, I like my coffee hot, not lukewarm.

I love french press.

I'm not so hoity-toity highfalutin, that I spend a lot of money on the best beans and equipment.  So here's the rundown of my current equipment:

• Ikea Radig espresso coffee pot (stove-top).  Talk about simple: you can take this with you on a camping trip and use it, and get a solid espresso every single time.  It doesn't get any more basic and solid as this.  I should say, the current generation is a slightly different build than the one that I have.
• Ikea Anrik double-hull stainless steel french press.  I hate plastic french presses, and I used to have a glass one, but it cracked after just a few years.  This one is a big fella and is so good, that you really don't need an electric coffee drip machine.
• Krups espresso machine.  It is two decades old, that practically no one owns one or has images of it.  ;)  I use it infrequently, because I use my Radig and I don't care for milk foam.
• KRUPS FMF514 drip.  The primary reason why I got this model was because of the double-hull stainless steel carafe.  I hate lukewarm coffee, to the point that even though this machine sucks, the steel carafe was worth it.
• Black and Decker CBM210 burr grinder.  Yes, I know it had bad reviews, but I only paid $18 for it, and it was still an improvement over a blade grinder; it's all about the heat generated during grinding.

My drip coffee maker

I know what you're thinking: nothing special in that equipment list.  Like I said, I'm not a highfalutin fellow.  I like my coffee almost any way I can get it, but having spent so much time drinking all sorts of coffee, I know what's good and what's bad, and I definitely know what I like and hate.

One last thing.  I like the flavor you get from K-cups and their ilk of single-cup brewers, but I can't get over the amount of plastic waste those things put out for each cup of coffee.  Also, I drink a lot more coffee than single-cup servings, so they make no sense for me.  If I were to choose, I'd select a small french press.

Oh wait, I already have one!  I bought this cheap (Chinese) one for a camping trip, years ago, from Next Adventure.  Double-hulled metal is my thing.  Unfortunately, the handle broke off the first time I used it, which goes back to why I try to avoid any plastic parts from China.  Nevertheless, when in need of just a single cup, I always have this french press handy.

That's my coffee experiences.

Two quick charts to show the state of the federal deficit.

First, a big number you should pay attention to: 24.4%.  That's how much the quarterly deficit has been cut, between its largest gap (Q2-2009) and this last quarter (Q3-2012).

From Q4-2006, it was a fast downhill ride (until Q2-2009), as net federal borrowing (deficit) / lending (surplus) showed a massive increase in quarterly deficits.  Since Q2-2009, while quarterly deficits remain high, they are steadily shrinking.

If the economy was slowing down or recessionary, the line would be headed downward; if the economy was improving, the line would be headed upward.  In other words, the stimulus plan worked in stopping the US economy's contraction.

Full second Bush term through Q3 of Obama's first term, net fed borrowing / lending.

Now of course, some people will suggest that because Democrats took control of the Senate and House in  the 2006 elections, the cause of this growing deficit was out of control spending starting in Q1-2007.  Except that's not what actually occurred, and hence the need for the second chart.

Except for Q4-2006, the rate of spending increases for all of 2007, was in line with Q1-3 2006.  What I think you can discern is that income flattened, and was a big reason why the line in the first chart (above), began to drop from its peak in Q4-2006.

It's worth noting that both Republicans and Democrats supported the 2008 Economic Stimulus Act which gave Americans tax rebates, in an effort to stave off a recession.  It was a very modest boost -- see Q3-2008 -- and its effects were extremely short-lived.  At $150B, it barely altered the trajectory of the US economy, as seen by continued declining federal receipts.

So what happens when the economy doesn't just start to lose steam, but actually shrinks?  Safety net program spending naturally increases as people losing their jobs and qualify for various benefits.

Which brings us back to that number I first mentioned: 24.4%.

As the economic recovery continues to gather steam, the federal deficit will continue to shrink, as more people are paying income taxes and spending for safety net programs shrinks naturally from less people claiming unemployment.  Letting the Bush top marginal tax bracket cuts expire, is meant to speed up this shrinking of the deficit, without jeopardizing economic growth.  After all, the higher your income, the greater your savings rate, and therefore less money is in circulation in the economy.

I hate 99% of online slideshows.

Can't stand em.  They're almost all written in HTML / Javascript to change pages, rather than just images and text, so that 20 pages of images equals 20 cached pages in your computer and 20 pages in your browser's history.

These Dwell slideshows bug the hell out of me; so do these Forbes slideshows.  Seriously, you're going to refresh the entire page?

THIS or THIS or THIS or THIS can help you build a proper slide show.

Stop the insanity!

I'm no scientist, but...

Looking at this image of the Mars dust storm, something caught my eye...are those eruptions at Pavonis and Arsia Mons?  What do you think?

Time for some staff changes at USC?

A terrible 2012 football season.  What was supposed to be a promising season, turned into an absolutely mediocre one.  The vitriol is flying, everywhere.

As I said in an ESPN forum, I prefer an attacking defense than a prevent defense, and Monte Kiffin's Tampa-2 is like a prevent defense.  (If you see two safeties 20 yards deep, simply throw under them, then you put the onus on the safeties to take the correct angle 100% of the time.)  It's sort of silly to watch the middle linebacker vacating the middle, only to see a mobile quarterback in a spread offense run to that vacated area and gain a dozen yards.  It's sad to watch the corners and linebackers running backwards before the ball is snapped, only to give up a pass or a run in front of them; you're not fooling anyone if you're running backwards, as the receivers and quarterback will adjust accordingly.  Offense wasn't all that much better.

We saw what happens when the game flow is too fast for Lane Kiffin to second-guess decisions: USC scores 51 points on the Oregon Ducks.  Give him too much time to think, and you get him calling a late time out to change the play on fourth-and-goal from 18" away, choosing to use his star running back (Redd) to pass block, while sending the blocking fullback (Vainuku) into the flat to pass catch; after the failed play, it wasn't difficult to lip read what a squatting Lane Kiffin said: "Dammit".  His second-guessing is quite good as far as tactics go, if this were an NFL team with professional athletes.  But we're talking student-athletes whose days are filled with classes, not practicing drills to hone their skill; you can't really expect two redshirt freshmen (Wittek and Vainuku) to play like they were college seniors, let alone NFL veterans.  Hence, we saw Wittek deliver a low pass, and Vainuku unable to reach down and come up with the reception.

So changes are needed.

Head Coach: Since USC athletic director Pat Haden has already said that he will not replace Lane Kiffin, there is no reason to speculate over this.  I think this is the right decision, because it's obvious that Lane can recruit.  Some don't think he can coach, but the facts say otherwise: no losing season.  Look at other veteran coaches with a long string of top-20 recruiting classes, and they've had losing seasons: Gene Chizik (5-19 in two years at Iowa State, 3-9 in 2012 at Auburn), Mack Brown (never had a winning season in three years at Tulane, was 2-20 in his first two years at North Carolina, 5-7 in 2010 at Texas), Mark Richt (6-7 in 2010 at Georgia).

Offensive Coordinator: Jeff Tedford.  Kennedy Polamalu may have the title, but obviously Lane Kiffin is doing 100% of the offensive play calling.  Since Polamalu has only been a positions coach, either Lane was prepping Polamalu to move into OC play-calling duties, or this was just a title that was used to pull him away from the NFL; the latter seems to be the case most people are making.  Either Lane hands off the primary play-calling to Polamalu, or he finds a real OC to share the duties.

I like Jeff Tedford.  Yes, he was fired by California after a string of disappointing seasons, but he can definitely coach offenses.  And he was previously Lane's mentor while at Fresno State.  It makes sense that, with their rapport, Tedford would be a perfect fit to help Lane grow as a head coach and shoulder the play-calling responsibilities.

While not out of the question, Gus Malzahn is a long-shot, but a talented offensive mind.  Even if USC stuck to the pro-set west coast offense, at least Malzahn would push to implement a no-huddle, hurry-up offense, and that would keep defenses on their toes (and prevent Lane from second-guessing the play-calling).  But Malzahn obviously has his eyes on staying at home and eventually getting the coveted Arkansas Razorbacks head-coaching job; prove himself at Arkansas State and he'll get his dream job which includes keeping his home in Springdale, AR, just 10 miles away from the Razorbacks' campus.

Defensive Coordinator: Scottie Hazelton or _____? Monte's got a lot of knowledge in his head, but his Tampa-2 implementation has not worked in his three years at USC.  With the stars aligned, the 2008 team with Nick Holt as DC, was tops in the nation in scoring and passing efficiency defense, and number two in total defense.  Even with Rocky Seto as DC in 2009, the Trojans fared better than in any season under Monte.

Promoting Scottie Hazelton means that you're going to stick with the basic 4-3 defense using Tampa-2.  But it also means that you're trusting him to understand how to properly call the defenses against the spread (which he faced heavily at NDSU, and as witnessed by the Bisons' top-ranked defense across the board in 2011).  Keep in mind, the biggest problem for the USC defense was up front with three new starters (Breslin, Uko and Williams), and a middle linebacker who, at times, seemed to pick the wrong side of the A-gap to cover.  Maybe a defensive adjustment is all that is needed; I can't help but notice that Sarao got into a heavy rotation at middle linebacker.

If you want wholesale changes away from Tampa-2, you have to look outside of the box (pun intended).  Find someone who runs a 2-gap 4-3 defense (Jack Del Rio, USC alumnus) or an attacking defense with a 3-4 alignment, like a protege of the Dick LeBeau or a Rex Ryan hybrid scheme protege.

The thing I like about these attacking defenses, is that regardless of who the runner is or if you're facing an option game, the front seven are right up near the line of scrimmage, forcing the offense to hurry up their decisions and your A-gaps are much better defended.  When the quarterback and receivers don't know who's blitzing, then it's easier to catch the offense off-guard and make the wrong adjustment.  We saw in the Fall camp just how good Scott Starr was; next year, after coming back from a medical redshirt in his freshman year, he should be spectacular.  If they push Tre Madden back to linebacker, they'd have a full six-man rotation at linebacker, for a 3-4 scheme, all of them flying around against the spread.  Against the power running game of Stanford, just replace the outside linebackers with defensive ends.

I'm in favor of unpredictable, attacking defenses, considering the speed and talent at USC.

Nexus 7 4.2 random reboots.

Last week I got the OTA 4.2 Android update on my Nexus 7.  On Sunday I got my first random reboot when I was about 90% through a drawing in Draw Something.  It just goes straight to the glowing Nexus logo.

Bummer.

Monte's Tampa2 doesn't work, Notre Dame edition.

The only time USC couldn't run Tampa2 against Notre Dame, was when they ran out of space behind them (red zone).

Suddenly they were able to stop Notre Dame and force them to kick field goals.

It's not working.  Anyone who disagrees shall be fired.

Week 13 PAC-12 predictions

Last week: 3 - 3
Overall: 54 - 29

Despite more yards on offense and half the number of penalties, there was one aspect of the game that USC could not win: turnovers.  There were other little issues, but turnovers killed USC.

Oregon...what happened?

Rivalry week is always the hardest to predict.  Most people think Notre Dame will win easily at the Coliseum against USC, but ND is playing only its fourth game of the season at an opponent's field, and two of those games were against teams with losing records.  USC is much better than those two teams.  USC's scored no less than 27 and no more than 51 points at home, while ND has averaged just 24 points at an opponent's field.  No Barkley, no problem; Wittek had looked really good in Spring and Fall practices with a quick release, a fast ball, tight spirals and is mobile enough to improvise and escape.  Notre Dame will obviously try to stop the run first, to force Wittek to win the game; he has the ability to throw to streaking receivers, and if trusted to do so -- why not, when you have nothing left to lose -- he should do well.

Oregon, Oregon State, Stanford and UCLA have a lot of reasons to play well.  All four are ranked; winning could result in an at-large BCS invite, a PAC-12 Championship game, or keeping their BCS NC hopes alive.

This week, Ducks are cheering for both Los Angeles teams: If USC beats ND and UCLA beats Stanford, then Oregon will go to the PAC-12 Championship and possibly leapfrog ND in the national standings.  Leave it to the last week of the regular season, for the best games!

Week 13
Visitor		Home
Utah	24	Colorado	17
Washington	24	Washington State	23
Arizona State	32	Arizona	35
Oregon	49	Oregon State	38
Stanford	32	UCLA	35
Notre Dame	24	USC	35

NCAA's case against Todd McNair falling apart?

SHOCK!  ;)

Over a year has passed, since Todd McNair first filed his lawsuit against the NCAA.  In that time, the NCAA has shopped around to find a judge that they thought would be favorable to them and they tried to suppress emails during discovery, as evidence.

Oh, and we came upon the case of Nevin Shapiro and the University of Miami, which exposed Paul Dee (head of the NCAA COI at the time of their investigation into USC and Reggie Bush) as a vile hypocrite.

On Wednesday, the day before Thanksgiving, the court delivered a rejection of two NCAA filings (to dismiss the trial based on a free-speech issue, and to keep the evidence away from the public).  That may be cause for cheer, but that's not why we, Trojans fans and alumni enjoying Thanksgiving prematurely.

You see, in his ruling, the judge described the NCAA COI's actions as "malicious" and "over the top".  When the judge said, "I think it was directed to an outcome", he was agreeing with McNair's lawyer's assessment of how the COI had used McNair to go after USC and deliver the closest thing to a death penalty that they could get.

We're starting to see the end line now, and that end line looks like a vindication of Todd McNair and USC, while the legacy of Paul Dee gets uglier with each passing year.

To read further, look here and here.

Free digital books.

So you've got (or you're going to get) a tablet, and you're wondering how to make use of it, without spending too much money: Free books!

• Library -- Oregon libraries participate in Library2Go which gives you access to some digital titles.
• Google Books -- Has a lot of free digital book titles that have expired copyrights (older classic novels, etc).  If you apply a search filter for free ebooks, you can either download a file (plain text / ePub / PDF) or you can grab the ebook to add to your Google Play bookshelf.
• Free Digital Reads -- It has a daily selection (good only for that day) of titles at Amazon, that are free (requires Kindle reader / app and an account).

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Some related thoughts.

Not all ePubs are created equal.  Some have been haphazardly converted from a printed book layout format (e.g. InDesign) to digital inline text; sometimes it seems as though there wasn't any proofing after the conversion -- some look terrible.

I would have included Open Library, but having to download software to download books, especially when the software's certificate is signed by a third party whose website is suspiciously empty (and half-written in Russian), was a red flag (the certificate should have been signed by Open Library, not a third party).

There aren't many eBooks for graphics / photos / architecture / design, except for scanned historical books -- think Vitruvius.

I'm wary of buying digital content that has DRM; I have no problems with borrowing or owning digital content that has DRM, but is free, however.

PDFs are not so good on the small screens of tablets, because unlike ePubs (which are really just zipped HTML and associated files), texts aren't scalable (without zooming in and out) and images aren't inline (they're anchored).

Monte Kiffin's Tampa 2.

Does not work.  Anyone who disagrees, shall be fired immediately.

Android 4.2 Jelly Bean update on Nexus7.

I got it, via OTA update, early Friday.  Sure enough, now there's support for multiple users, but there's quite a few changes that are noticeable.

One important change, is the inclusion of swipe gestural typing, along the lines of Samsung's Swype keyboard.  Works extremely well, making composing texts a lot easier.  Another seemingly important change, is that the notifications pull-down bar now has certain actionable responses and contains more information (useful on tablets with lots of screen real estate).

Onto the cool changes: the lock screen now has widgets.  If you want info at a glance, this is extremely useful!  I can only imagine that the first dev to pop a weather widget on the lock screen will beat up the competition; next winner would be a live-traffic widget.  For now, there only seems to be official Google widgets: Gmail, Calendar, Clock, Music finder.  Also, you're limited to five widgets, which really isn't an issue.

Four different types of lock screen widgets currently available

Swiping sideways between widgets in the lock screen.

Next cool thing is this Daydream function.  When your device is plugged in to power or docked, you can set up what amounts to a screensaver.  Your options include animated colors, a clock (using your tablet as a giant alarm clock works well), Google Currents, a photo frame, or a photo table.  With either the photo frame or table, you can select gallery folders on your device or from your Picasa Web albums (no selecting individual photos, just the folders).  Google Currents displays random feed from your Currents subscriptions in a pleasing dark background.

The new clock and Daydream clock

Animated colors in Daydream

Currents in your Daydream

Photo table in Daydream - selected from image gallery folders

Photo frame in Daydream - selected from image gallery folders

The clock app has changed quite a bit.  Now you have an easy to use count down timer (see below), the clock with the usual alarms, and a stop watch.

Easily track cooking or take a nap.

The Google Now Cards have been enhanced with additional cards and options, but I'm wondering if these cards are as useful as the lock screen widgets; I'm leaning towards the lock screen widgets becoming the go-to screen.

Also, you can apparently stream videos via WiDi, although I haven't yet figured out how that works (not that it matters, since I don't have a TV with WiDi).

Finally, unfortunately, because the Nexus7 doesn't have a rear camera, there is no camera function in the tablet and therefore there is no Photo Sphere access.  Speaking of Photo Sphere, you should check out what other people have posted.

With 4.0 ICS with Samsung's TouchWiz UI enhancements on my phone and now stock 4.2 JB on my tablet, I can say that there is no comparison: 4.2 is much better.  With the inclusion of Swype-like keyboard, stock 4.2 is definitely worth skipping TouchWiz.

Week 12 PAC-12 predictions.

Last week: 5 - 1
Overall: 51 - 26

We're almost at the end of the season, and it did not turn out anywhere close to where I thought it would be. USC's season is now focused on winning out and getting to the Rose Bowl, but to do that, they have to beat UCLA, Notre Dame and Oregon in the PAC-12 Championship.  If they make it to the PAC-12 championship but do not win, they will probably lose out on an at-large bid for the Rose Bowl to either Stanford or Oregon State.

Meanwhile upstart Bruins have turned journalists into giddy gurls, hoping to get an invite to the prom.  While  criticism pours in on USC's lack of discipline -- resulting in ranking 119th in penalties -- what escapes these same critics is that UCLA is ranked 120th in both penalties and penalty yards.  If Mora brought back discipline, surely they wouldn't be ranked dead last in the FBS in both penalties and penalty yards.

In the last two weeks, USC's discipline on penalties has been a remarkable turnaround, with just 7 penalties total.  Meanwhile UCLA has gotten worse, with 25 penalties in the last two games.  I think this trend continues on Saturday; I think UCLA kicks itself in the rear end and screws up their chances.

The other games:

• WSU might give ASU a bit of a scare, but ASU is still heads and shoulders better.
• UW might have a meltdown against Colorado, but the Buffs really, really suck.
• I am supremely confident that that Arizona will lose badly to Utah because Arizona has done poorly when on the road; it doesn't really matter if Matt Scott is playing.
• Oregon State's losses have all come on the road while Cal's lone road win was at WSU, so it figures that Cal will not put up much of a challenge at Reser Stadium.
• And no way does Stanford's #1 run defense stop a complete Oregon team; Stanford's two losses were on the road against mediocre offenses (UW and ND), and Oregon has been crazy on offense this year.  This is a runaway.

Week 12
Visitor		Home
Washington	35	Colorado	17
Washington State	24	Arizona State	32
Stanford	20	Oregon	55
Arizona	17	Utah	32
USC	32	UCLA	21
California	13	Oregon State	28

Hate week: UCLA Twinkies

It's fitting that, in a week where Hostess whined and ultimately quit, UCLA Bruins have also whined, and by Saturday, find itself quitting like it did last year.

Remember the 2003 USC v Auburn game?

The folks at Nintendo surely do.

Final post-2012 election quote.

Democrats "must be looking at us like we're the biggest f----- morons in the world," one frustrated Republican said. "That's what I'd be doing." -- excerpt from this National Journal post on why Republicans got the polling all wrong, and thus caught off-guard on election night.

Well, now that you've mentioned it...

Fuzzy wuzzy mold.

Saw this in my rice pot a couple of weeks ago, and snapped a photo of it: solid white fuzzy mold.  I'd never seen this before, and I thought I should capture the moment, because it reminded me of polar fleece.

Sanchez or Tebow?

I'm a Sanchez fan, and it has everything to do with being a Trojan, and it didn't hurt that the Jets went to the playoffs in his first two years, falling one game short of getting into the Super Bowl in both times.

People are saying that Tebow should be given a chance, and laying blame for game losses on Sanchez.  That's a load of crap.  For one, the defense has gotten worse each year since Sanchez' rookie season, and that lies mostly with Rex Ryan and the front office personnel moves.  Second, the switch to Sparano as OC has been the worst decision in the world, period.

For those who watched Tebow against the Seahawks, they saw him revert to his side throwing motion.  How can that be, when at Denver, Tebow had adjusted his college throwing motion to a standard above the shoulder motion?  The only answer is that Sparano has allowed Tebow to decline to bad habits.

But it's not just Tebow's backslide in development.  Look at the numbers on offense.  Under Brian Schottenheimer, the offense was scoring more points each year.  Under Sparano's direction, scoring has dropped dramatically.

Year	Offense PPG	Defense PPG
2012*	19.4	25.3
2011*	23.6	22.7
2010*	22.9	19
2009*	21.8	14.8
2008**	25.3	22.2
2007***	16.8	22.2

* - Mark Sanchez

** - Brett Favre

*** - Chad Pennington / Kellen Clemens

It was a trick question! -- It doesn't matter which quarterback is under center for the Jets, because Sparano hasn't helped either quarterback in their development.

Blame the front office for the constant personnel moves that cut into team chemistry, blame switch from Schottenheimer to Sparano, but don't blame the quarterback unless you're going to blame all of the other players, too.

Background images in Google search page.

Just a few days left; I'm really going to miss the ability to use background images on the Google search page.  I'm not buying the excuses of consolidating projects, either.  The coding is already there.

Photo taken on ferry ride betw Vancouver and Victoria.

Trader Joe's Kona Coffee Shortbread Cookies.

Yum!  Just bought a box yesterday, primarily because they were out of my new favorite, those chocolate hazelnut cookies.

Let me just say this about these so-called shortbread cookies: they're unmistakably not shortbread.

Anyone who has tasted classic Walkers Shortbread cookies will know that these aren't shortbread; not even close.  These are actually very similar to those classic Danish butter cookies from Royal Dansk (and others) in those blue tins that most everyone has eaten at some point during the Christmas holiday season.

Even if they're not true shortbread cookies, these are truly yummy.  Another treat that I absolutely love, is TJ's Belgian Butter Waffle Cookies -- love, love, love em!

Now, it's not true that I like all of TJ's cookies.  For example, I really hated their maple cookies, because for one, they barely tasted like maple syrup, but secondly, you could actually get authentic -- from Canada -- maple cookies (with lots of maple syrup) from the Dollar Store.  And I'm not a big fan of their dunker cookies, either.  Those Joe-Joes are just so-so.

That is all.  [munch munch munch]

Google Street View tricycle in Poipu Beach.

I was searching street views of Poipu Beach (my how the place has grown up!) and I came across this amusing image of a Street View tricycle parked next to its transport carrier.  Gone are the cars, enter the tricycles?

I might need to take a vacation on Kauai.

Stupid woman runs over husband over politics.

Holly Solomon, an idiot in Gilbert Arizona, ran over her husband because he did not vote.  She was angry that Obama had won reelection and thus, Obamacare would continue to go forward, costing her family more money.

She decided to scare him by chasing him with her SUV -- her own words.  She's not your ordinary nuts; she's a dangerous nut.  There sure seems to be a lot of dangerous nuts in Arizona.

So let's break down just how pathetic she is, shall we?

• Obama lost in Arizona, making her husband's vote irrelevant;
• Arizona wasn't part of any Obama campaign to win, making Arizona's outcome irrelevant;
• She owns an SUV, which, considering the cost differential of filling up an SUV and the extra profit that auto manufacturers gain from SUV sales with higher prices, she's more concerned with her ride than her family's health;
• She ran over her husband, which, assuming she does not already have health care insurance, will cost her hundreds of thousands of dollars more than if they were both covered by ACA;
• The cost of ACA to her family, is monumentally lower than the cost of losing her job and going to jail.

Misfits - Season 4

I just finished watching the third episode of the fourth season of Misfits -- nearly halfway through the 8-episode season, and I figure I'd post some thoughts on it.

There's dark humor, and then there's season four of Misfits; we're talking pitch black humor heavily tinged with an extra heaping scoop of sadistic, sexual themes.  We have someone restrained to a bed with ropes; we have someone musing about a fake past filled with a pedophile uncle; we have a choking sexual fantasy scene ending with a stabbing; we have two power trips with one ending in sex and cake; we have a crazed not-really-a-stepmother fellation of a weak-minded guy; we have a father whose-not-actually-married-wife is not too much older than his not-actually-his-real-son.

If the first season of Misfits made prudes uncomfortable, season four would result in a constant wince.  I don't mind it all.  What does bother me, is the severe lack of continuity of cast and story line.

Gone are Lauren Socha (for being an idiot), Iwan Rheon and Antonia Thomas.  Gone was the glimmer of hope that these Misfits would go on to do something useful with their powers.  The franchise is facing the question every series must answer: where are you going?

I guess the answer for Misfits is: probation until you die.

I know, it's not a satisfying answer, but that's what it is.

Designing IP survey.

Designing IP

I took this survey -- a series of questions involving six different design patent lawsuits -- mostly to get an idea of how design patents are applied, and to see things from a juror's eyes (comparing images of related products).  Participating allows you to enter a drawing for a $100 prize, which you would then direct to your favorite charity (from their list of available charities).  I know what you're thinking: why not give the winner and the winner's favorite charity $100, each?

The information at the end of the survey, is your reward.

Still, I'd like the $100; I'd buy me this Pantone Formula Guide.  :D

Week 11 PAC-12 predictions

Last week: 4 - 2
Overall: 46 - 25

This is what I wrote last week:

"If Oregon beats USC, no one will be surprised, but watching USC play against Arizona, I can definitely tell you that USC's offense is lethal, so long as they don't incur penalties (laughter ensues).  Meanwhile I have no idea how the defense will perform; last year they did well against the spread option, using their current, fast linebacker crew, but with a revamped d-line, they seemed to let the outside edge open up and the dive play wide open half the time."

I took USC, but everything I wrote last week, was spot on.  USC's offense was lethal, but USC's defense was lethargic.  To be precise, the defense was lost in South Central, on its way to Mexicali.

Can USC bounce back, or have this week's distractions been too much for the season, and the team collapsing?  For what it's worth, the media thinks that what it is smelling is rotten, but from my perspective it has been taken out of context.  No one gives a shit about all of the verbal shenanigans that Mora has gone through in his short stint at UCLA, and no one has lifted a finger to critique Rich Rod and his handling of Matt Scott's concussions, going back to the USC game.  It's a weird world, this sports journalism, where some silly things are of greater import than others.

This week, at homecoming against ASU, it should be a solid win, and it should be a solid defensive effort.  If the score ends up as 42 - 28, it's because the fourth quarter USC has all the subs in, up 42 - 14, I suspect.  Or the Trojans could always send a royal middle finger to some certain sports writers, and blank the Sun Devils, 65 - 0.

I initially had Stanford on top of the Beavers, but then I recalled that the Cardinals have decided to switch quarterbacks at this late in the season; I changed my mind.  I just don't see that working out against a good team like Oregon State.

The one other surprise I see possibly happening, is UCLA losing at WSU.  It's a night game, and it'll be below freezing, as in the mid-20s during the game.  If there's one variable that seems to work well for an underdog home team, it's the weather.  First time playing in freezing temps could mean dropped balls.  The only problem is, Leach seems to have a mini rebellion up there, with Marquess Wilson getting himself suspended from the team; kicked out.  It's hard to win if you have limited talent and your best player is now gone.  Thus, I still think UCLA comes out a winner.

Week 11
Visitor		Home
Colorado	10	Arizona	45
Arizona State	28	USC	42
Oregon State	28	Stanford	24
Utah	21	Washington	24
UCLA	24	WSU	17
Oregon	55	California	17

Mary Matalin provides an unintentional point (look past the anger)

Mary Matalin, the political pundit whose tongue lashings are about as ferocious as her scowl, had this interesting (though unintended) point in her post for the National Review:

"Forces of nature bookended the general election: Our convention was compromised by one weather disaster and our momentum stalled by another."

 If you haven't yet figured out what happened here, allow me to explain with clearer terms.  An Act of God smacked the GOP convention, while another Act of God hit back again, a week before the election.

An evil and unfaithful generation seeks a sign, but no sign will be given it except the sign of Jonah.” Then he left them and went away.

Matthew 16:4 

God or Mother Nature, does it really matter?  A sign was delivered: The effects of global warming are presently with us.

As a reminder, in 1991, the US Conference of Catholic Bishops issued a statement:

"The effects of environmental degradation surround us: the smog in our cities; chemicals in our water and on our food; eroded topsoil blowing in the wind; the loss of valuable wetlands; radioactive and toxic waste lacking adequate disposal sites; threats to the health of industrial and farm workers. The problems, however, reach far beyond our own neighborhoods and work-places. Our problems are the world's problems and burdens for generations to come. Poisoned water crosses borders freely. Acid rain pours on countries that do not create it. Greenhouse gases and chlorofluorocarbons affect the earth's atmosphere for many decades, regardless of where they are produced or used."

Of course, most religious conservatives promptly ignored it.

We've got to do something.  Isn't a thousand-mile wide storm, big enough to notice that something is wrong with our environment?

Is it going to require simultaneous major hurricanes, for Americans to reach that epiphany that global warming is real?

Bob Murray and his devilish prayer.

You might have heard about Bob Murray, the coal miner owner who carried through with his threat to lay off employees if Obama was reelected.  In doing so, he said the following prayer:

"Lord, please forgive me and anyone with me in Murray Energy Corporation for the decisions that we are now forced to make to preserve the very existence of any of the enterprises that you have helped us build. We ask for your guidance in this drastic time with the drastic decisions that will be made to have any hope of our survival as an American business enterprise.
Amen."

Laying off people the week after the candidate he backed, failed?  Nothing changed; no new laws, no new regulation; today was the same as it was six months ago as it was one year ago.  He's forced his employees to donate money to Mitt Romney's campaign; forced them to attend a rally for Mitt Romney without pay; he's ignored the safety citations of his mines; he's brushed off the accidents at his mines; he's ignored the pollution accidents of his mines.

As Slate says:

"In 2010, one of Murray’s mines leaked coal slurry into Captina Creek, home of the endangered hellbender salamander. This wasn’t the first time a mine under Murray’s purview had committed such an infraction, or the second. It was the seventh. 

Murray has also tried to shirk the blame for the Crandall Canyon mine catastrophe, when nine people died after the collapse of a Murray-run mine. Crandall Canyon faced 64 safety violations before its collapse, but Murray ignored them all, ultimately insisting that the collapse was caused by an earthquake. (It wasn’t.)"

As TNR noted:

"Murray had suspended Century’s operations and made clear to workers that they were expected to attend, without pay. 

Murray, it turns out, has for years pressured salaried employees to give to the Murray Energy political action committee (PAC) and to Republican candidates chosen by the company. Internal documents show that company officials track who is and is not giving."

Santa keeps delivering Bob Murray giant lumps of coal in his stockings, which only excites Bob Murray with hopes of free (and subsidized) coal.

Karl Rove just won't quit on crazy.

You'd think Fox News would stop paying attention to Karl Rove, after his Ohio meltdown in front of viewers.  But no, they persist, and now Rove insists that Obama's campaign "succeeded by suppressing the vote."

You see, his SuperPACs wasted money all over the map, and now he has to defend his decisions.

For instance, I thoroughly encouraged every conservative group to spend ad money in Oregon.  And they obliged; of course they were probably listening to the silly scenario painted by Allen Alley, Oregon GOP chairperson.  Maybe they weren't cognizant that, by the time they were airing ads, 40.6% of all ballots had already been turned in?  Obama won by over 10 points.

The longer I think about it, the more I realize that they had previously hoped that their mid-October bump would continue to grow.  But when it began to revert back to Obama, they panicked and threw money at any state that was thought to be an "Obama lean".

Now he's under attack from his own folks for having hundreds of millions in the bank but nothing much to show for it.

2012 Presidential election postmortem

So, in my August 2nd prediction, I called out an Obama win with 328 electoral votes and 51.5% of the popular vote.  And that was before I started following Nate Silver.

At the time, though I didn't say it, I thought that Evangelicals and other white Christians would move their votes to Gary Johnson or some other third-party vote, in an effort to register their displeasure with the possibility of a Mormon in the White House.  As a result, I thought that Romney would only get 46.5% of the popular national vote.  After that first debate however, there was a real momentum swing as notable Evangelical leaders openly supported Mitt Romney (even if they didn't address the relationship of Mormons to Evangelicals).

When the near-final tally came in (assuming Florida, which has Obama up, is counted), I was not surprised that my August prediction held up, with the exception of New Hampshire.  (If you go back to early August, there were few polls taken in NH, and while the newer polls showed Obama with a lead, hypothetical polls from the previous year pointed to solid red streak for Romney, even though he hadn't yet entered the primary season.  In hindsight, I probably should have just picked Obama for NH and stick with what the aggregate polling had shown, rather than buck it.)

That I was able to guess 49 of 50 states correctly, on August 2nd, should highlight the fact that poll aggregation and applying even a simple algorithm to the aggregate data, yielded an exceptional story about this year's election: stability.  Because the polling data was telling me that the polls were uncannily stable, I decided to take a modest risk and run with an early prediction, so that I could later tell you this story about how all of those political pundits on TV were a bunch of fools, Fox News, especially.

My prediction on August 2nd.

Final outcome (pending Florida)

If you look at the state-level data of some of the battleground states, the more sophisticated your algorithm, the clearer the picture, and that picture was of incredible stability.  Obama seemed to hold a -- relatively -- tight margin that was steady throughout the year!  Question the methods, question the bias, question whatever you want, while in the middle of the election season, but the fact of the matter is, when you aggregate more data, the margin of error shrinks.  (There is no harm in including Rasmussen polling data, if you aggregate it with all others; if you weight Rasmussen accordingly, then your aggregation should produce solid numbers, right?)

The problem has always been, that the mainstream media likes to cherry pick which poll it wants to highlight, in order to tell whatever story it wants to, and excludes the context of the other polling data.

Now, there is no doubting that the state of the economy, regardless of where we had come from and where we were going, was miserable. It is just absolutely remarkable that, even as the state of the economy was terrible, Obama was able to hold onto a steady lead. There are at least two or three different reasons why this occurred:

• Mitt Romney could not avoid being Mitt Romney.  For every good week or good event, there was at least two bad weeks and bad events.  His foreign policy trip turned into a foreign policy nightmare.  Even after that bump from the first presidential debate, the gaffes and stumbles did not stop.  Once he was successfully labeled as an out of touch rich guy, he did nothing to counter it, and in fact only reinforced it with his comments and actions (think 14% income tax rate).
• The Obama camp really knew what was going on because they had really smart people who built very good algorithms, and were tracking data in ways that it has never been tracked before; meanwhile the Romney camp, despite its attempts to keep up, just didn't have the powerful machine needed to compete in real time.   It gave the Obama camp the ability to hit back with the right tone, in the right states, with the right message, all year.
• It was always about more than just the current state of the economy.
• It was about women's rights.  Mitt Romney paid lip service to the Lilly Ledbetter Act, insisting that a resurgent economy was the only meaningful concern for women.  Throw in the odd rape comments from other male Republican politicians, and you could see that many women were completely offended.
• It was about gay rights.  This was not a decade ago and the rise of the Defense of Marriage push.  2012 marked widespread support for gay marriage, just as President Obama became the first sitting president to express support for the cause.  It seemed incredulous that a sitting president could express this view, without being punished at the polls, and yet if anything, he helped push Americans into accepting this as a civil rights issue.
• It was about minorities.  In no small part because of the changing demographics, many older and working-age white Americans engaged in a counter-revolution, known as the Tea Party movement.  Their charge was to take America back to the whiter version of itself; they spoke openly of disdain and with disrespect for the authenticity of Obama's birth in America.  When Mitt told folks in Michigan that everyone knew where he was born, that was a coded reference to the legitimacy of Obama's heritage.
• It was about integrity and the big American moderate pie.  Many people just simply could not trust Mitt Romney.  A lot of people thought Mitt was moderate, but in the last several years it seemed that he had embraced the far right.  Some people decided to cross their fingers and hope that he would not do what he said he'd do; most people refused to accept that risk.  Once they heard him embrace the far right, they stopped trusting him and his message.

So what made conservative pundits think that Mitt was going to win, or worse, why did some of them think Mitt would win in a landslide?  All of them gave one basic premise for their predictions: the polls were wrong, because there was a building momentum for Mitt Romney in the independent vote.

That was a terrible error, and one solidly entrenched in a party that has a disdain for science and math.

A quick look at both RCP and HuffPo will tell you slightly different stories, but neither showed a momentum for Romney in the closing days; the difference between the two, is that HuffPo took into account more polling data and used stronger smoothing to give a longer-trend view.  While RCP suggested that Mitt Romney took the lead, HuffPo showed that this was not really the case.  It was probably RCP's trendline, that Republicans were focused on.

Now, I also knew that these same Republicans would blame Hurricane Sandy and its political implications with Governor Chris Christie's praise of President Obama and FEMA.  While I'm sure some people were heartened to see proof that the President, in fact, could put away the partisan politics and put all Americans first, you can see that, as a matter of fact, even RCP's aggregate poll gap had peaked the previous week, specifically October 27th.

Because RCP is an aggregate of the previous week's polls, this means that by the 27th, there were already polls pointing towards Obama.  If you look at Gallup's daily tracking of likely voters, Obama bottomed out at 45% on October 21st.

So one side relied on the expectations of a momentum, bad polling data and suspected poll bias, while the other side continued to use polling data, algorithms and analysis.

And which side won?

Elections have consequences: Donors and hedgers.

Hedgers who bet big on Romney, combined with those who bet big on Obama shook markets today, as they collected their losses / earnings from the markets.  Romney's largest donors truly took a beating.

In the chart below, those in red lost more (as a percentage) than their peers in their respective industry.  Of course, the first thing you notice is, that most of them were in financials.

Now of course, even Obama's donors lost paper value on their stocks, (Wells Fargo gave slightly less to Obama than Romney), but not on the scale of Romney's contributors.

And the reason why those financials lost big?  Now they won't be able to repeal Dodd-Frank.  Equally important, Elizabeth Warren -- the person they blocked from becoming the head of the newly created Consumers Financial Protection Bureau -- is now a senator, ready to take on the banking industry from the Capitol Hill.

Top Romney Contributor	$$ Contributed	Stock price day after
Goldman Sachs	$994139	-6.55%
Bank of America	$921839	-7.14%
Morgan Stanley	$827255	-8.58%
JPMorgan Chase	$792147	-5.6%
Credit Suisse Group	$618941	-4.13%
Wells Fargo	$598379	-3.49%
Deloitte LLP	$554552	n/a
Kirkland and Ellis	$496722	n/a
Citigroup Inc	$465063	-6.29%
Barclays	$428250	-3%
PricewaterhouseCoopers	$421085	n/a
UBS AG	$400390	-2.23%
HIG Capital	$385500	n/a
Blackstone Group	$360225	-2.31%
Ernst & Young	$293067	n/a
EMC Corp	$288440	-3.12%
General Electric	$287495	-2.13%
Elliott Management	$281925	n/a
Bain Capital	$279220	n/a
Rothman Institute	$263700	n/a