One more image.

Was working on redoing my condo today.

I was working on trying to figure out how to follow some stocks as the trading day went on, but I've learned that day trading will only work if you use margin accounts, which I am not about to do. I'm trying to tweak my understanding and process to do some real trading, but not on the minutes/hours scale, but on the days/weeks scale.

Anyway, spent the last 2 hours of the day just working on redoing my condo, and came up with these three quick render/photoshop jobs.

Speeding on a curve is bad.

Very bad. No matter what kind of car you have, there is no way you can do 100 in a curve on a regular street / highway, unless you know how to drift. Here's the proof:

This is the worst I've ever seen. You can't even tell what kind of car this was. What a shame that three people lost their lives.

When is good news bad news?

Oregon's unemployment data for January came out, and the good news is that December 2008 was adjusted downward from a preliminary (from January's release) 9.0% (seasonally adjusted) to 8.3% (seasonally adjusted). But here's the bad news - and it's really, really bad - January's unemployment rate is 9.9% (seasonally adjusted).

If you do not adjust for seasonal employment, the number jumps to 10.9%. That's just downright frightful.

While that preliminary January number will likely move downward in the March release, for the time being that's a 1.6 percentage point increase in just one month! WOW.

Of course, I still believe Oregon's rate will probably reach 12-14% at its peak, which might be conservative if both credit lending AND sentiment don't improve in the first half of this year. The problem is, that the rate of unemployment is increasing faster now, than it was even 3 months ago, in Oregon. Therefore, it is impossible to predict a bottom, as there are no signs of a bottom in an upward curve.

A comparison of Obama and Jindal.

As I listened, I heard President Obama speak to the heart and soul of the concerns of Americans and people all around the world. The more he spoke, the more I felt that he was not just being honest, but that he was speaking plainly and opening up a bipartisan tone. I've heard many speeches from many Presidents and Presidential candidates, and this was no populist speech, but an uplifting talk about dealing with the problems we've faced for decades.

As I listened to Governor Jindal speak, I was struck by the lack of genuine tonal inflection in relating his own story and his projection of bipartisanship. BUT, as he got into promoting the standard Republican idealism, he was fully genuine about what he believed in. Governor Jindal is a stark contrast to President Obama, and I find it absolutely asinine that he would repeat the same policies that failed TWICE: tax cuts for the rich.

I cannot help but think the Republicans have lost touch with American values, as I hear Jindal speak without new ideas, and his ideas are CLEARLY limited to the Conservatives, not a broadly diverse America.

____

Just finished listening to David Brooks on The News Hour, and all I can say is, CONFIRMED; the Republicans are DOA. No new ideas, no attempt to uplift and bring the GOP into the 21st century to tackle the problems of today. I cannot agree with the Conservative commentator David Brooks. Jindal may have lost his opportunity to make a future Presidential bid, as the ideas he presented were more stale than 2 year old bread.

Gmail outage overnight :O

Read about Gmail's outage this morning.  I'm just glad it happened when I was asleep.  What's scary is that I have a G1 phone, and if this thing went out for a whole day, that's a lot of potential employer / contract jobs I might miss (not likely, but still).

So I figured, if Gmail is offline for just 12 hours a year, that's still 99.86% (99.9% if you round up) uptime, which as a percentage seems like it's reliable, but at 12 hours, you're just praying those 12 hours are in the middle of the night when you're sleeping.  Imagine what you might have missed if those 12 hours came at an inopportune time?

S&P reminder for July to review June Index.

Just a reminder to self:

Review S&P Case-Shiller, June Index, Portland

Lowest tier: bottom signal @ ~162 (-6%)

Lowest tier: continued slide @ <156

Middle tier: bottom signal @ ~154 (-3%)

Middle tier: continued slide @ <151

Highest tier: bottom signal @ ~147 (-4%)

Highest tier: continued slide @ <144

Free Markets as savior???

I read an article talking about a contrarian position that in fact free markets can repair the economy faster than government intervention, and that it was government regulation that caused this meltdown.

But I don't buy into their historical analysis, suggesting that the 1920-1921 crash reflected how markets can recover themselves faster than with government intervention of the 1929 crash.

Why?

Because for starters, in 1922, the Feds reduced that top tax rate from 77% to 58%, and continued to do so every year until 1929, at the low of 24%.  This to me suggests that there was monetary intervention by essentially providing liquidity to the markets through these dramatic tax cuts.  In my view - and I know it doesn't count for much - this means that the influx of cash into the markets disguised what were otherwise structural problems with the stock market and the economy in general.  The relative short time between the 1920-1921 crash and the 1929 crash means to me that introduction of additional capital into the markets produced an artificial bubble.

Further, the Hoover Administration mostly pushed voluntary measures for banks to increase their money supply, following the 1929 crash.  In fact, the only real action of the Hoover Administration did not occur until 1932, an election cycle which saw Roosevelt win.  Now, if you look closely at the GNP growth, it continued to sink from 1929 through 1932.  It wasn't until AFTER Roosevelt's New Deal and his fireside chats, that we saw GNP recover and move positively.

In effect, a laissez-faire approach in fact DOES NOT WORK, and I think it's disingenuous for free-market advocates to suggest otherwise.   As I see it - and again I know my opinion doesn't count for much - free market advocates are on the extreme end of the spectrum of totalitarian regulations, and neither extremes will provide the necessary response to freeing up the economy to grow once again.

In my humble opinion.

Dissociative economic opinions.

Not many people want a crappy economy, let alone a Depression.  I understand that most people voted for Obama because they were concerned about the economy and they felt he was best suited to help guide the US out of this Recession.

Yet in the face of obvious need of some self-sacrifice for the greater good and for our own economic well-being, polls show that a majority of people do not want to help homeowners under water, failing banks unable to extend credit, or the auto industry.

So I have to ask, if you wanted the economy to improve, how did you expect us to get out of it? 

We either solve the problems of what got us here into this specific Recession (dearth of credit caused by defaulting mortgages) or we just let the natural free markets take over to create winners and losers, but also ravage our economy into a long-lasting Depression, making us all long-term losers.

There is a lot of this dissociative thinking at all levels (media, politicians, average Joe) that somehow, this economic recovery can happen with a wave of a wand.  It's unbelievably weird how so far separated people have become from reality.

Interesting read on economic bubbles.

I walked to Powell's Books on W. Burnside this afternoon, to take a look at a book that I had my eye on for the past week or so, "All About Technical Analysis".  My curiousity to learn about technical analysis stems from my observation of the volatility of the equity markets, and the seemingly positive move of the Dow Jones Industrials into the 9000 territory. If you were to strictly go by the economic news that trickled out between the end of the 3rd quarter last year through this quarter, it would seem odd to the average Joe that the market would surge so high.  Why, after all, wouldn't the market just simply sink into record-low territory and stay there, since for all intents and purposes, the economic news hasn't gotten better?

Well, to make a long story shorter (not short), I skipped around to a latter chapter in the book that talked about bubbles, and I thought it was too interesting to pass up writing about.  Specifically, the author points to three indicators of a bubble forming:

1. Potential future earnings is viewed as more important (less risk) than past performance.
2. Banks begin to follow this method of risk assessment, and pour money into these investments.
3. The media catches on and begins to exclaim how Average Joe is missing out on the earnings, causing the general pubic to follow suit.

We can most certainly see how this pertains to the housing bubble.  We have ratings agencies (S&P) marking derivatives higher than they should be, looking at how the rise in housing values means that future potential growth outweighs the data showing a starkly different probability.  Then we have banks (and Freddie Mac/Fannie Mae) rushing in to get in on the action, especially smaller banks that aren't able to get a piece of the bigger construction loan pie.  Then finally, we have the general public rushing in to try to cash in on the growth of the housing prices, as witnessed by the flipping of properties and the rush of people into real-estate investment.

So what?

Well, the most fascinating part of the story is how the author suggests the economy is finally rescued: By way of small businesses.  Not all small businesses will reap the gains of the recovery, but in fact, only those that are positioned to best utilize the now-cheap assets of the losers of the bubble.

That's why I just had to write this down...it's too delicious not to write it down!  It all makes perfect sense, and it just takes a good, analytical review of the players to understand who will and who won't best recover from this downtrodden economy.  I'm not about to let everyone in on the secret, as I think people need to do their own research and come to their own conclusions, but I am quite certain of who the winners will be, contrary to what Wall Street thinks.  :)

Female pop star in Japan.

Cute too.  Well, at least to me.

The G1 phone.

With the correct adapter, I am able to stream internet radio stations on Shoutcast to my stereo, or listen to my mp3s.  The Last.FM app works perfectly now, so I can even stream stations I created on Last.FM.

In one press, I can check the current temperature just before I step outside, or see what the radar is (although they don't update it nearly as often as you'd like).

I can check the current time arrivals of the Portland Streetcar for specific stops.

With the RC33 update, voice-search is now enabled, and it's extremely accurate.  I can see this working really well when driving.  Just press a few buttons and talk.  You can literally search an address by voice, then bring it up on Google Maps and have it create directions to get you from wherever you are to your destination.  Only thing missing is turn-by-turn voice directions like your standard GPS nav device.

I can take photos then upload it to Picasa and share it with people.

Those apps they show in Apple's commercials?  Many of them are being added every day to the Google Android Market.  That bubble level on the current commercial, I've had it since last November.

One app, QuotePro lets me create customized lists of stocks, and in real-time updates prices in a really nice GUI.

With Compare Everywhere, I can scan the barcode at the store and see if there's another store with a better price, including online stores.

Not bad.

Stimulus bill's shortcomings.

As I see it, the Stimulus bill coming out of the Senate has a bunch of problems:

• $15,000 tax break for first-time home buyers.  Yes, there will be a rush of new applications in the Summer IF the economic decline slows substantially by July.  But without confidence in the future, why would most people spend the money and assume that much risk in the face of an uncertain future?  This portion of the bill is mostly worthless in creating jobs.
• 4~4.5% mortgage rates, as foisted upon banks, will cause a rush of people refinancing, which is a good thing for the housing mortgage market, but a bad thing for commercial lending, credit card markets and commercial mortgages.  The biggest problem remains a lack of credit flowing, and the reason why this is still the case is because banks are either at or near their leveraged limits based upon available capital.  By forcing banks to shift their credit towards housing mortgages, other markets that need credit will see further drying up of available credit access.  We already know that NINJA and sub-prime loans will continue to default (reset) through 2010.  These people will not likely be able to refinance as their mortgages are underwater, and lenders do not want to mark to market their values.  Therefore, these homes will go into foreclosure, will be sold at auction, and banks will only recover a portion of their capital, leaving their leveraging ability at low levels.
• The tax credit / rebate for auto purchases this year and next is a bad idea in its current form.  It will end up providing the same percentage of credit to a Hummer as it does for a Prius, and it goes counter to the stated goal of achieving lowered carbon emissions.  That's wasteful tax spending.
• 50% funding grant for extended COBRA coverage is a bad idea for two reasons.  First and most obvious, is that it does nothing for those already laid off and haven't accepted COBRA.  Think about it; only 9% of those eligible for COBRA actually sign up for it, so basically most people currently laid off do not have COBRA and do not benefit from this rule.  The other basic problem with this rule, is that it actually encourages waste.  If the Feds had instead offered 50% to all unemployed with a cap of $100, people would be far more judicious about their choices going forward.  Without a cap and with coverage for only recently unemployed and those choosing to stick with COBRA, the Feds are incentivizing waste.
• The total investment for infrastructure was lowered by a GOP compromise.  The problem is, this is the best way to spread the wealth throughout the nation AND get something back in return for that money - improved infrastructure to aid interstate trade.  The GOP seem to think that giving cash directly to people is wise, but I beg to differ.  In such a bleak landscape, I think most people would rather SAVE that money for a rainy day that they think is coming in the near-future.
• Tax cuts are a bad idea.  Supply-side economics fail, because people will end up SAVING some of the money you put back into their pockets rather than spend it all, dollar for dollar.  We already have evidence that people are likely to save that money; a recent report has shown that Americans' savings rate has shot up (to 3.6% in December, above the average of 1.7% in 2008, and a -0.5% in 2005).  I highly doubt the consumer will spend the US out of this Recession.

And what is the consequence of this Stimulus Bill failing?  Not just more economic woes, but also opening the door for the GOP to blame the Democrats for failing on their ideas.  However, we have to remember that much of the above-criticized aspects of the bill were derived by GOP ideas that were incorporated as an attempt to compromise.

I think the Democrats have set themselves up for losing at least the House in 2010.

Pat Robertson is mentally retarded and a manipulative jerk

Sorry for the flame, but as the 700 Club runs in the background, I cannot help but get annoyed at the ridiculously petty and uninformed comments that Pat Robertson makes.

He facetiously attempts to consign the current weather as climatic signs that the Earth isn't getting warmer. That alone should reveal his inadequacies of analytical thinking, but if that's not enough for you, consider that in the same show (today, Feb 3, 2009) he reflected on the importance of paying taxes. This is coming from a man that routinely walks the thin line between politicking and maintaining his religious non-profit status? If he's so bent on encouraging others to do their civic duty, maybe he should stop talking politics, get off the non-profit status, and show us the millions that he collects from his viewers, and where that money goes? Is Pat Robertson taking a pay cut so that he can feed the poor in these hard times? Right...not going to happen.

I call on Congress to ask the televangelists to testify on Capitol Hill, if they're taking voluntary pay cuts in order to increase funding for services to help the poor.

Top 10 Favorite Radiohead Songs.

1. Creep
2. House of Cards
3. High and Dry
4. Street Spirit (Fade Out)
5. Karma Police
6. How To Disappear Completely
7. Optimistic
8. Fake Plastic Trees
9. Just
10. My Iron Lung

"How To Disappear Completely" and "Optimistic" are probably low on other people's lists, but they make it into my top 10.  Creep is by far, my favorite Radiohead song.

I think Radiohead is such a favorite of mine because they express some fairly complicated emotions between sadness, self-pity and self-loathing, combined with an exasperation over a lack of control over life and circumstances.  In the end, what's it all about?  Work?  Life?  Death?  The machinations of a loving God, or the cruel Fate that was implanted with your genetics?  Worker bees go on without questioning life, and sometimes when you sit back and see how humans go about their lives, you can almost see a resemblance.  I know what some people will say, that Judas Priest was talking the same ideas.  But Judas Priest didn't speak to my soul like Radiohead does.

Love Radiohead.  I even love A Tribute to Radiohead - an all-strings tribute.