5 Thoughts on the Democratic Primary

1. California Dreaming: The Sanders campaign pinned their remaining hopes on winning in California, in order to make a statement to super delegates. That plan failed, miserably, as Hillary instead crushed him in California, and while not all of the ballots have been counted, it's clear that she's won by double-digits.
2. Poll Divergence: I had noticed a couple of days ago that the polls in California had diverged into two groups -- one where the race between Clinton and Sanders was statistically tied, and another where Clinton was ahead by double-digits. Rather than get burned by predicting that the double-digit polls were more accurate, I decided to sit it (chickened) out and let the results speak for themselves. In the end, it was all about the Latino vote.
3. The Latino Vote: It's clear, especially at the county level, that the Latino vote strongly favored Clinton, leading to that double-digit win in California. The greater the Latino share, the wider support Clinton received.
   
   One reason why polls failed to capture the Latino surge, is that many pollsters utilized online polling in contrast to the limited internet access many Latino households do not have. Another reason might be the frontline coverage of Donald's racist remarks over Judge Gonzalo Curiel, motivating Latinos to show up / mail in their ballots.
4. Delegate Counting: As of right now, Clinton has 2184 pledged delegates and 571 super delegates for a total of 2755 delegates. This means that she has exceeded a simple majority of super delegates and pledged delegates, and no matter how you count it, Clinton is authoritatively (deliberate pun) the presumptive nominee.
5. Bernie's Staying Power?: Everyone's bending over backward to opine that Bernie's influence on the Democratic Party will have lasting power. The odds are that he fails to capitalize on the big stage. Hillary capitalized on her 2008 run by becoming Secretary of State and staying in the limelight. Jerry Brown lost to Bill Clinton but worked his way back up the ladder in California to reclaim the Governor's office. But other than that, no other primary loser has gained traction, not Howard Dean, Dennis Kucinich, Gary Hart, John Edwards, Bill Bradley, Paul Tsongas, etc. Given his age -- 74 -- he doesn't have much time to make a lasting impact in politics. But what hurts him most is his anti-Establishment stance. Bradley and Kucinich were probably the most recent anti-Establishment candidates, and neither is particularly noteworthy in the history of American politics, other than becoming a footnote in political history for creating a fight within the Democratic Party -- and that's the track Bernie's still on.