Friday, August 14, 2015

Wondering about this year's El Nino?

The news media appears to be slowly catching the wave of this year's El Nino season and how it might be the largest one on record. There are several sets of data worth looking at: A satellite tracking map of the sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies, on a regular basis; tracking of monthly mean SST anomaly in the Nino region 3.4, since 1950; and the most current year (trailing 12 months) with the freshest data of SST anomaly in the Nino region 3.4.

Here's a quick and dirty comparison of the SST anomaly of the eastern Pacific, between 1997 -- the strongest El Nino season on record dating back to 1950 -- and 2015. Red means the surface temperature is much hotter than the normal, while the dark blue means it's much colder than normal.


Along this equatorial line, reaching to Nino region 3.4, you can see that both 1997 and 2015 look similar (east of Hawaii, at the Equator). The latest data shows that Nino region 3.4 is tracking +1.6C, while the same period in 1997 it was +1.7C.

This map happens to also show something else rather significant: The widespread warming in the eastern Pacific. That's not a permanent fixture, mind you, but it does show that this year we're seeing something extraordinary in ocean surface temperatures.

Anyway, just some interesting stuff to follow.

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