10 Reasons why the Ducks win it all.

Ohio State is a very good team that could beat Oregon on any given day, but I think that Oregon will win. In one scenario they humiliate Ohio State, in a second scenario they win by two touchdowns -- you get the picture, don't you? 

Here are 10 reasons why the Ducks will win:

1. Everyone thinks that Ohio State's third-string quarterback passed the test against Alabama. The way I see it, Alabama's defense didn't pass the smell test after losing 7 starters from the previous season.
2. One big advantage Oregon has over Alabama, is game film of Ohio State's Cardale Jones playing a full game. Trying to come up with a defensive plan against a quarterback you've never played, means that you're playing against a scheme and not reading the quarterback's tendencies (does the guy like to rush to his left or right, does he throw poorly when running to his left or right, which receiver does he prefer to dump off on, etc.) We saw what Oregon's defense did to Jameis Winston -- expect the same, but worse for Cardale Jones.
3. No amount of cardio training, mid-season, can bring the Buckeyes up to speed to play against the Ducks. There is fast, and then there's Duck speed. The school who plays closest to Duck speed is Arizona. Ohio State players will be gassed by late-third quarter. Of course, the flood gates will open in the third quarter, but not just because the Buckeyes will be gassed; Oregon's really good at halftime adjustments.
4. The PAC-12 is flat out better than the B1G, top to bottom. The final regular season AP top-25 had 6 PAC-12 and 4 B1G teams ranked. That means half of the PAC-12 was ranked while less than a third of the B1G was ranked. Of those ranked teams, the PAC-12 was 5-1 in bowl games, while the B1G was 3-1. Head to head in the regular season and in the bowls, the PAC-12 went 6-2 against B1G opponents.
5. The winner of the game is usually the winner of the turnover margin. Oregon's turnover margin (20) is twice that of Ohio State's (10), and is the best in the country.
6. The margin between scoring offense and defense favors Oregon. Compare each school's scoring offense to the other school's scoring defense, and the margin between these two, usually predicts the winner. In this case, Oregon has a 2.4 point edge. It's a take on Sagarin's Pure Points (Predictor) ratings, except in this case, it's a head-to-head measurement.
7. Everyone has Oregon on top. ESPN's Football Power Index has Oregon #1. Las Vegas has Oregon favored over Ohio State, by roughly 6 points, even with two Oregon starters out. If it were under 3 points, the game would be roughly akin to a tossup. 
8. If you look at all of the predictions (ESPN, SN / Vegas, CBS) no one is predicting Ohio State to win big -- almost everyone offering a Buckeye win has them by a field goal. But about half the people predicting Oregon to win, are predicting a big margin. That's usually a sign that people aren't sure about Ohio State's ability to win, but a lot of people are certain of Oregon's chances to win. Oh sure, you can find biased sports fans parading as journalists picking Ohio State to win big, but then you look at their spotty record and hit the ignore button.
9. The toughest opponent nationally for Oregon, isn't Ohio State; it's TCU. TCU blew out Ole Miss by 39 points, and Ole Miss beat Alabama by roughly the same margin that Ohio State beat Alabama. Had TCU been included in the CFP, TCU had the best chance of winning it all. Go back to Sagarin's Pure Points (Predictor) and the top two teams are TCU and Oregon, respectively. Without TCU in there, Oregon had the best chances of winning it all.
10. Mariota. He is head and shoulders above the capabilities of Darron Thomas, and has the hardware to show for it. DT was a great player, but he fell short at times on his throws, and was a step slower than Mariota. This makes Oregon's second championship game appearance the best opportunity for the Ducks to win it all.

Bonus: Top reason why Oregon wins, is because ESPN's KC Joyner, using his usual, dubious analysis, picked Ohio State. At the end of the day, ESPN never holds its employees responsible for lousy analysis.

Oregon 49 - Ohio State 24